Salary Cap: Dr Dubas Cap Thread: He wants the Nurse

[thevelvetfog]

Not according to my cursory research. The word was that Holland felt he was being micromanaged, but whether Darnell Nurse was part of that is unknown. Given that Nurse has put LA (and ergo Holland) on his list, it seems quite likely he thinks the guy is a fan of his, so lets assume it wasn't why.

Which, if true, backs up the point I'm making here is that your view of Nurse and LA's view of Nurse might be significantly different. You can usually find someone in the NHL who likes a big dman who can move, put up 30 points, and show some edge more than everyone else thinks they should, and LA/Holland look like the prime suspects.

And if that ends up being true, the rest is kinda detail to me. If Holland is offering actual value, another team will have to meet it for the inter-division thing to matter. If cap space is an issue, a third team can be found. Where there's a will there's a way, and if Holland has a will to get Nurse that will set the trade's value, regardless of whether he gets him or not.

You could be right about the mutual interest between Nurse and Holland, but then you need EDM to potentially help a division rival (in addition to LA helping rival EDM move an unhappy player and help them with their cap crunch).

The 'other team' to meet what LA is offering is the Pens offering to take the full contract without sending anything back (or potentially sending back a useful player like Rakell, Novak, or Braz) which LA can't do because they need their useful players to compete). So instead of paying a third team in a complex trade which I believe would count as a retention spot for 4 years, a trade to just the Pens where the cap means less than almost any other team and they potentially get desperately needed secondary scoring help would be preferable.

Also, since LA is also competing for a Cup and has cap concerns of their own, what are they sending EDM that makes sense for them? I still haven't seen a proposal that makes sense for both LA and EDM. I think my Pens proposals would be WAY better than anything LA could offer.

 

[thevelvetfog]

Nurse + 1st + Podkilzin for Rakell, Koivunen, 2027 3rd

Love it. They get an upgrade at winger who can also fill in at center (which they need) and are rid of Nurse's entire contract. We get a good young player (basically another China) and a 1st, and only give up two players and a draft pick that are essentially meaningless to us.

 

[Empoleon8771]

The thought process for trading for Nurse is pretty obvious: he's a buy-low guy that you can rebound and flip for more value down the line. It's pretty much the same thought process as it is with EP40, you'll get them for a pretty affordable price today, put them in a position to succeed to try to build up their value and then flip them down the line when the cap is higher and you have the ability to retain on their deals to maximize their value. If it works out, you'll get back far more than you paid for them. If it doesn't work out, you have a shitty contract but the Penguins won't be in a position to contend anyway, so it doesn't really matter too much.

The bigger questions are with Nurse specifically and the risk/reward that comes with that plan with adding Nurse. Adding EP is a no brainer because I think it's very likely that you'll get back better than Novak, Koivunen and a 1st for him down the line. Nurse is a bit tougher to gauge, you could potentially get him for super cheap, but he also has a larger likelihood of just ending up an immovable shitty contract. The risk/reward with Nurse is more slanted towards the risk side, so I fully get the hesitation.

The ideal situation with Nurse is something like:

-Trade Girard for Nurse and a 2nd or Letang for Nurse straight up
-Nurse play well for 2 or so years in a 2nd pair role on the Penguins
-With a year or two left, retain Nurse down to like $6 million and sell him to the highest bidder for likely a 1st+

With the cap projected to be at $129 million for 2028-2029, you could get great value for Nurse at $6 million if you can get him to play well as a top-4 guy for the next 2 years. It's just a big question of how likely that is.

 

[Jacob]

They have no use for Koivunen or a 3rd and have no 1sts until like 2028

 

[Ugene Magic]

 

[Empoleon8771]

They have no use for Koivunen or a 3rd and have no 1sts until like 2028

Yeah if you want to offer up something that Edmonton might be interested in, you should offer them Brazeau. Edmonton is likely losing Roslovic and Kapanen to UFA this year. While they still have Savoie and Hyman, it's a really thin group overall.

They only have 6 top-9 forwards for next year and are really banking on Howard or Hutson panning out. Koivunen isn't anything to them, they'd just gamble on Howard or Hutson in that role.

 

[thevelvetfog]

They have no use for Koivunen or a 3rd and have no 1sts until like 2028

But they do have a need for Rakell and to be rid of Nurse's entire contract. Koivu and the 3rd are just sweeteners. Does it matter that the 1st is in 2 years if the Pens won't be competitive for 5+ years?

 

[Ugene Magic]

At this point I think they’re just going to make changes for the sake of making changes because that’s all they can do. I dont really care if we’re helping them but if we can add a LD AND a 2nd or prospect for the privilege I’ll take it. We kind of need LD anyway with Girard and Wotherspoon pending UFAs and Pickering maybe not the guy.

Nurse’s cap hit is a killer for Edmonton but it’s next to meaningless to us. He won’t block anyone’s path (still room for Pick if he can make it) and we don’t need him to be Pronger or Pietrangelo or whatever Edmonton needed from him. He just needs to be a solid 2-way guy. He’d basically be replacing Shea or Girard. And Wotherspoon is already our top pair LD.

Or... he could end up our own 8.1 x 4 paperweight.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Or... he could end up our own 8.1 x 4 paperweight.

Which is basically meaningless to the Penguins with how much cap space they have.

Which is exactly what Jacob said:

Nurse’s cap hit is a killer for Edmonton but it’s next to meaningless to us. He won’t block anyone’s path (still room for Pick if he can make it) and we don’t need him to be Pronger or Pietrangelo or whatever Edmonton needed from him. He just needs to be a solid 2-way guy. He’d basically be replacing Shea or Girard. And Wotherspoon is already our top pair LD.

 

[thevelvetfog]

Yeah if you want to offer up something that Edmonton might be interested in, you should offer them Brazeau. Edmonton is likely losing Roslovic and Kapanen to UFA this year. While they still have Savoie and Hyman, it's a really thin group overall.

They only have 6 top-9 forwards for next year and are really banking on Howard or Hutson panning out. Koivunen isn't anything to them, they'd just gamble on Howard or Hutson in that role.

I mean, throw in Braz, too, then, it doesn't matter. The big part of the trade is a big upgrade at winger going from Pod to Rakell (in addition to getting rid of Nurse's entire contract which no other team can do).

Nurse + 1st + Pod for Rakell + Braz

 

[Empoleon8771]

I mean, throw in Braz, too, then, it doesn't matter. The big part of the trade is a big upgrade at winger going from Pod to Rakell (in addition to getting rid of Nurse's entire contract which no other team can do).

Nurse + 1st + Pod for Rakell + Braz

What? Rakell to Podkolzin is absolutely not an upgrade at winger. I like Podzolzin but he's absolutely not an upgrade on Rakell.

 

[thevelvetfog]

The thought process for trading for Nurse is pretty obvious: he's a buy-low guy that you can rebound and flip for more value down the line. It's pretty much the same thought process as it is with EP40, you'll get them for a pretty affordable price today, put them in a position to succeed to try to build up their value and then flip them down the line when the cap is higher and you have the ability to retain on their deals to maximize their value. If it works out, you'll get back far more than you paid for them. If it doesn't work out, you have a shitty contract but the Penguins won't be in a position to contend anyway, so it doesn't really matter too much.

The bigger questions are with Nurse specifically and the risk/reward that comes with that plan with adding Nurse. Adding EP is a no brainer because I think it's very likely that you'll get back better than Novak, Koivunen and a 1st for him down the line. Nurse is a bit tougher to gauge, you could potentially get him for super cheap, but he also has a larger likelihood of just ending up an immovable shitty contract. The risk/reward with Nurse is more slanted towards the risk side, so I fully get the hesitation.

The ideal situation with Nurse is something like:

-Trade Girard for Nurse and a 2nd or Letang for Nurse straight up
-Nurse play well for 2 or so years in a 2nd pair role on the Penguins
-With a year or two left, retain Nurse down to like $6 million and sell him to the highest bidder for likely a 1st+

With the cap projected to be at $129 million for 2028-2029, you could get great value for Nurse at $6 million if you can get him to play well as a top-4 guy for the next 2 years. It's just a big question of how likely that is.

EDM has zero use for either Girard or Letang. Make it make sense for EDM.

They have a full left side even without Nurse and they are only saving $4M by taking Girard. Even if they want to upgrade their 2LD position, they need a DFD as their current 2nd pairing is horrific defensively.

They have even less use for an old, expensive defenseman in serious decline when they are competing for a Cup.

If you were EDM, would you make either of these trades?

 

[Peat]

You could be right about the mutual interest between Nurse and Holland, but then you need EDM to potentially help a division rival (in addition to LA helping rival EDM move an unhappy player and help them with their cap crunch).

The 'other team' to meet what LA is offering is the Pens offering to take the full contract without sending anything back (or potentially sending back a useful player like Rakell, Novak, or Braz) which LA can't do because they need their useful players to compete). So instead of paying a third team in a complex trade which I believe would count as a retention spot for 4 years, a trade to just the Pens where the cap means less than almost any other team and they potentially get desperately needed secondary scoring help would be preferable.

Also, since LA is also competing for a Cup and has cap concerns of their own, what are they sending EDM that makes sense for them? I still haven't seen a proposal that makes sense for both LA and EDM. I think my Pens proposals would be WAY better than anything LA could offer.

Honestly, I don't know. I've not really dug into what LA might offer, or what Edmonton actually want. I saw one Oilers beat reporter talking about signing Kulak after they trade Nurse so it might be they want a LD back.

However, guessing, theorising, my best is that Edmonton want

a) the full contract gone (duh)
b) to pay nothing for doing so and maybe even accumulate a little trade capital for doing so

The latter is quite key because they have no 1st until 2028 and have gaps in their 2nds and 3rds over the next 3 years (although they do have 3 3rds over all). If they're looking for guys, they're real hard against it. They need to nurse their capital.

As such, I'm quite skeptical that they'd be willing to use the 1st to get rid of Nurse, even if they get a good player back if that's a player they can elsewhere for less. Do you think Edmonton would do 1st + Pod for Rakell? That's more than we paid for him when he was a lot younger. If no, why wouldn't Edmonton want to get rid of Nurse by another means and go shopping for wingers at a cheaper package?

Also, when I mention a 3rd team, I'm not talking retention, I'm talking the possibility of the Kings offering, say, Joel Edmundson, and the Oilers saying "we'll do it if we find a team who'll take Edmundson for a 3rd and give us the 3rd". You can no longer do that sort of retention - has to be 75 regular season days. between trades when retention is involved - but you can do a three party trade.

I'm sure the Oilers would prefer to trade Nurse east. But if someone offers them basically a 3rd or 4th to disappear Darnell Nurse, no questions asked, and other teams are trying to wheedle away Edmonton's 1st with Nurse, that's a no brainer to me.

What? Rakell to Podkolzin is absolutely not an upgrade at winger. I like Podzolzin but he's absolutely not an upgrade on Rakell.

He means Rakell is an upgrade on Pod for them.

 

[thevelvetfog]

What? Rakell to Podkolzin is absolutely not an upgrade at winger. I like Podzolzin but he's absolutely not an upgrade on Rakell.

I am talking about from EDM's perspective. Rakell is an upgrade over Pod at this stage of their respective careers. Rak's best days are behind him and Pod still has a much higher ceiling. Since there are at least two teams involved in every trade, you have to look at it from the other team's perspective, too. Rakell is better for a 'win-now' team, Pod is better for a team building toward the future.

 

[Empoleon8771]

EDM has zero use for either Girard or Letang. Make it make sense for EDM.

They have a full left side even without Nurse and they are only saving $4M by taking Girard.

They have even less use for an old, expensive defenseman in serious decline when they are competing for a Cup.

If you were EDM, would you make either of these trades?

Stastney isn't really a "regular" and Oilers fans said they could absolutely use another LD and keep Stastney as the #7. They wouldn't want someone too expensive, but they would be fine taking someone back. Plus they could instantly flip Girard if they wanted to open up the entirety of Nurse's $9.25 million salary. I think LA offering Dumoulin+ for Nurse makes a ton of sense with that in mind, Edmonton can run with Dumoulin-Emberson as the 3rd pair with Stastney as the #7. Plus that swap gives them money to re-sign Murphy and run with Walman-Murphy as the 2nd pair.

With Letang, Edmonton's RHD depth is so comically bad that he'd actually be an upgrade for them. Edmonton's RHD depth beyond Bouchard is Emberson, Brown, Regula and Akey. It's horrendously thin to the point where Letang would be a massive upgrade on who else they could play. That said, I definitely think it would be their preference to do Dumoulin+ to run with:

Ekholm-Bouchard
Walman-Murphy
Dumoulin-Emberson
Stastney

 

[Ugene Magic]

And now we are paying real assets for F.....ing Nurse....

The amount of stupidity has no bounds around here.

OUT....

 

[Empoleon8771]

And now we are paying real assets for F.....ing Nurse....

The amount of stupidity has no bounds around here.

OUT....

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

The Pens 'need' is assets (I was going to add "in a rebuild," but I know that word is triggering for some). The Pens won't be competitive for a while, so the actual hockey aspect (fit in lineup, Nurse's skill, etc.) is not very relevant.

Contending is the goal. We don't know how long the road there is, but there's no sense in adding ultra-expensive players who don't help the team and biggest selling point is "eating minutes"...whatever that means

At the very least, a player making that much money should fill some useful role for us.

If a 2nd isn't worth it, what about the following?:

Nurse + 1st for Novak

Nurse + 2nd + Prospect for Braz

Nurse + 1st + Howard for Rakell

I'm really not interested in anything short of a 1st for taking on all the negatives Nurse represents, without any sweetener on our end.

Rakell alone should return a 1st plus.

 

[Empoleon8771]

IMO if I were in Edmonton's shoes, I'd be trying to do Nurse to LA for Dumoulin and Turcotte as a base. Edmonton doesn't have anything resembling a 3C either now or going forward, but Turcotte's playdriving results are fantastic and he could really give them great value at $800k if they give him a chance to be their 3C. Dumoulin should be a nice partner for Emberson on the 3rd pair too and the move saves Edmonton $4.45 million in cap space while adding to their roster. It's not a particularly sexy return (I think the value there is pretty poor), but both players fill a need for the Oilers and the added cap space is a nice benefit as well.

 

[AuroraBorealis]

First off, it was never initially reported as just between LA or Pittsburgh. Those two places were mentioned as places Nurse would accept a trade to, not the only ones. Digging back, Friedman said there was a 3-5 team list, so it's not a big list, but its not LA or Pittsburgh or bust and never was. And lists can grow too

And if we're treating Friedman as gospel, he's also said after that that there is legit interest and he thinks there will be a hockey deal.

So I think we're at the place where there's no rock and a hard place for Bowman.

Second... yeah, player values can be really fluid, but I don't think they're fluid to the point where Nurse's two extra years require a massive sweetener compared to guys like Trouba. Or that Nurse would require a 1st to move, where as Seth Jones at 5 x 7m got a 1st and Spencer Knight to boot. Big dmen are always valued higher than their numbers and guys with some pedigree usually retain a shine because GMs believe they can turn them around.

And to get on to point 3, I don't know that Dubas is immune to that. I certainly don't trust him like you do. Yeah, he's had a real nice heater trade, but no GM is perfect and his Toronto record suggests he'll regress to the mean. He's been up and down in terms of assessing dmen as a Pens GM too. I find it quite plausible that he'll think he can get Nurse to bounce back to being a good dman and it being worth a little flutter. Not saying that's definite, not saying I'd agree with him if he did, but there's no GM alive I trust when it comes to big dmen or guys they've got a history with.

And heck, even if I trust him as a trading GM, I can absolutely see a logic path where Dubas thinks he can rehabilitate Nurse than flip him for a 1st plus on some retention in two years. It'd be risky given the aging curve but if Seth Jones, starting at 9.5 x 5 in a nastier cap era, got 1st + Knight as a big high pedigree dman with a 63% WAR, then what can you get for Nurse down the line if you can get him to bounce back to when he had a similar WAR (which judging from the Jfresh chart, he probably did prior to last year's disaster season)? And speaking of disaster season, I saw a tweet pointing out Nurse mainly played against opposition best with the middle of Edmonton's line up so there's a very obvious way to improve his numbers.

I don't think I want it, I don't think it happens, but if it does, I think it won't be because Dubas offered the best quote for hauling away the stinkiest contract in the league and leaves with a haul, but because Dubas believes in him a little more than the others and gets him for a song and a bloated contract.

p.s. Forgot to add - if basing it on GM reputation then while Dubas and Bowman has a happy history, I have a two word argument for why Nurse won't be a big cap dump that I find very persuasive and that's "Ken Holland".

This is what it comes down to for me. I absolutely see a scenario where Dubas is interested in Nurse. I just don’t see any scenario where his offer is the best offer for Nurse. I think Dubas would make a move for Nurse, but it’s almost definitely going to be something like the Kulak/Girard swap where the Penguins are getting assets to take on the bigger/longer contract. I can still see that happening, with something like Nurse and a 2nd for Girard feeling fair, but that’s the kind of deal I feel Dubas would be shooting for.

But if Holland is offering Dumoulin and a 2nd for Nurse while the Penguins are offering Girard for Nurse and a 2nd, there’s no chance Bowman takes the Penguins offer. And honestly I think Dumoulin and a 2nd for Nurse may even be light for what Holland could be offering.

Yeah, we all agree on us not being the most likely landing spot, especially with LA in the mix. Cali's a big draw, and if he likes Holland then all the more.
I just feel that if Dubas makes this trade it's because we'll get a pretty good sweetener, and because other teams gave up. Meaning a circumstance where we'd have leverage.
Dubas is tenacious in negotiations. Dog on a bone.
Even if it's not a 1st, maybe compensation in another form that Bowman will value less.

 

[Peat]

Rakell alone should return a 1st plus.

Wouldn't bet on it. Pretty tough to get a 1st in return for a winger in general unless they're that guy, nevermind one who recently turned 33.

I'm not in love with the idea but I do think they'd have to be creative to get a 1st plus with Rakell/Rust - that or hope they find a GM losing his mind at the deadline while one of those guys is red hot.

 

[AuroraBorealis]

And to get on to point 3, I don't know that Dubas is immune to that. I certainly don't trust him like you do. Yeah, he's had a real nice heater trade, but no GM is perfect and his Toronto record suggests he'll regress to the mean. He's been up and down in terms of assessing dmen as a Pens GM too. I find it quite plausible that he'll think he can get Nurse to bounce back to being a good dman and it being worth a little flutter. Not saying that's definite, not saying I'd agree with him if he did, but there's no GM alive I trust when it comes to big dmen or guys they've got a history with.

I think he's improved since Toronto. Those were developmental ages for a GM and he had Shanahan breathing down his neck.
Here it's gonna be easier as President, and under less pressure.

But fair point on all GMs being prone to blindness for former players they were with for a while.
Especially when it comes to nostalgia like Dubas has with the Greyhounds.
So, some concern there is valid.

 

[Peat]

I think he's improved since Toronto. Those were developmental ages for a GM and he had Shanahan breathing down his neck.
Here it's gonna be easier as President, and under less pressure.

Hoping you're right there.

But fair point on all GMs being prone to blindness for former players they were with for a while.
Especially when it comes to nostalgia like Dubas has with the Greyhounds.
So, some concern there is valid.

Think Nurse got a decent sized role on this year's Team Canada with Dubas as GM (or AGM?) too.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Hoping you're right there.



Think Nurse got a decent sized role on this year's Team Canada with Dubas as GM (or AGM?) too.

Yep, he had 6 assists in 10 games while playing 18:30 a night. By ice time, he was their #2 defensemen.

Should note that TC dressed 7 defensemen every game, so that's why his ice time total was so low for a #2 defenseman. Their defensemen were:

1. Bouchard: 20:25 a game
2. Nurse: 18:31 a game
3. Whitecloud: 17:15 a game
4. Rielly: 17:09 a game
5. DeMelo: 16:38 a game
6. Wotherspoon: 15:22 a game
7. Mateychuk: 11:24 a game

 

[thevelvetfog]

Honestly, I don't know. I've not really dug into what LA might offer, or what Edmonton actually want. I saw one Oilers beat reporter talking about signing Kulak after they trade Nurse so it might be they want a LD back.

However, guessing, theorising, my best is that Edmonton want

a) the full contract gone (duh)
b) to pay nothing for doing so and maybe even accumulate a little trade capital for doing so

The latter is quite key because they have no 1st until 2028 and have gaps in their 2nds and 3rds over the next 3 years (although they do have 3 3rds over all). If they're looking for guys, they're real hard against it. They need to nurse their capital.

As such, I'm quite skeptical that they'd be willing to use the 1st to get rid of Nurse, even if they get a good player back if that's a player they can elsewhere for less. Do you think Edmonton would do 1st + Pod for Rakell? That's more than we paid for him when he was a lot younger. If no, why wouldn't Edmonton want to get rid of Nurse by another means and go shopping for wingers at a cheaper package?

Also, when I mention a 3rd team, I'm not talking retention, I'm talking the possibility of the Kings offering, say, Joel Edmundson, and the Oilers saying "we'll do it if we find a team who'll take Edmundson for a 3rd and give us the 3rd". You can no longer do that sort of retention - has to be 75 regular season days. between trades when retention is involved - but you can do a three party trade.

I'm sure the Oilers would prefer to trade Nurse east. But if someone offers them basically a 3rd or 4th to disappear Darnell Nurse, no questions asked, and other teams are trying to wheedle away Edmonton's 1st with Nurse, that's a no brainer to me.

"They need to nurse their capital." I see what you did there.

You might be right about not wanting to part with one of their few remaining high draft picks, but I tend to think they are at the "push it all in" stage with both McDavid and Drai in their 30s now. If they are still good in two years, which they should be, their 1st will only be in the 20s, so I can't see where they wouldn't value it all that much. They will have to pay the piper at some point, but when that time comes, they will be looking at top 10-15 draft picks that they can use for their eventual rebuild.

I am of the opinion that that EDM would have to pay something for a team to take on all 4 years / $9.25M of 32 year old Nurse's contract without taking anything back any salary. Most think that would be worth at least a 2nd, and I think that's reasonable. Now, if they are upgrading from Pod to Rakell, that's worth something, too (there is a nominal $2M difference in salary), which I think bumps up that 2nd to a 1st. If you think that's too much of a price, throw in either Braz or Novak to make it work. EDM could use all of those players.

I could see EDM wanting to improve their second pairing as Walman and Emberson are horrific defensively. 30 year old Walman makes $7M for 5 more years (another 'yikes!' contract for Bowman) so he isn't going anywhere. He can play on the right side so maybe they are looking for a 2LD, but it would have to be a DFD, so Kulak would make sense (but not Girard). Edmundson is pretty bad defensively, so I don't think he's a fit, but he hits a lot so maybe Bowman equates that with being good defensively? He is a good puck-mover, so EDM might like that aspect to his game. I suppose Dumo could make sense to them.

I just can't see another team offering a 3rd or 4th (or a 7th) to take on all of Nurse's contract without sending anything back. Is Nurse overpaid? If yes, then he has negative trade value. Not only are there very few teams who can actually do that under the cap, but Nurse is largely in control of where he goes and so far, it's just a handful of teams, where the Pens are the only team who can actually do it.