Do You View This Team as a Legitimate Cup Contender?

[Robb_K]

I think The Blues are a solid 6th to 8th playoff certainty, with just about no chance to go all the way to The Cup Finals, as they are currently constructed. I expect them to add a defenceman and a forward. I hope both of them will be high-level players, but fear they might just be veteran depth. A lot will depend upon how Binnington plays, and how the defence plays in their own zone, and how much the new, more offence-oriented defensive system will help the offence without Tarasenko. I expect The Blues to score 15% more goals, but probably allow 20-30% more. That'll dump them out of the upper tier of deep playoff run contending teams, into the next tier down, of playoff teams, for which everything will need to go right for them to even get into the 3rd Round. I'm hoping they pick up a high-quality defensive D-Man in a trade.

 

[Novacain]

I would put us as a 2nd round playoff team. If the stars align, maybe WCF.

I think that largely depends on draw, but I can kind of agree on upside. Unless Colorado gets dismantled by injuries again I don’t think we have a shot against them. I’m not sure of one thing we would have an advantage over them in. If we do lock down 3rd or maybe even 2nd in the division, I’d assume we would be matched up with Dallas, and I think they are better they were 2 years ago and we are worse.

Hopefully I’m wrong but our defense core on paper looks much worse then most of the teams we’d be competing with.

 

[Sgt Schultz]

I don't think we are a Cup contender on paper right now. As somebody said, I can't figure out the identity of this team.

Two big questions are Binnington and Tarasenko. If the answer to both of those is positive, then we move up the ranks a bit.

But, we have essentially replaced JBo and Petro with Krug and Faulk. I'm fine with Krug as a player, but trying to compare him to either JBo or Petro does not work. I hope Faulk finds some form, but every time I saw him this past season I shook my head.

For a team that won based on defense, we have taken a step backwards in that respect. And let's face it, Binnington has been known to give up a rebound or two, and a defense that can keep the opponent away from those is important.

I also think the loss of Maroon hit us more than we thought it would, especially in the playoffs.

All that said, teams that were not Cup contenders on paper before the season sometimes do gel and bring the thing home.

 

[DeuceNine]

Schwartz-Schenn-Thomas
Sanford-ROR-Perron
Blais-Bozak-Sundqvist
Clifford-Barbashev-Kyrou

Scandella-Parakyo
Krug-Faulk
Dunn-Bortuzzo

Binnington
Husso
​

I realize they may yet sign someone or make a trade but the bones of the team are likely to remain along these lines with Tarasenko being a big wildcard. The lines are a best guess, use whatever line combo makes you happiest. I imagine a lot of this will come down to what someone considers a "contender".

It is somewhat about Tank, but I've noted before that we've managed to succeed at least in the regular season without him for large stretches. Of course, in the playoffs you'd need more guns, and his absence would hurt (and did). That said, I'm not confident Stillman and his huge Blues fanboy self would allow us to falter too much without telling Army to go get some offense if we needed to. Same with goaltending. There are plenty of options to go around there.

Other point is the Petro absence. The Bruins have been a very good team and contender with Krug and without Petro. So if they're doing what they're supposed to do and play a true team game, we should nearly stand pat. As an aside, the fourth line will be critical. Adding Clifford helps with the lack of Maroon, and ensures that if part of that fourth line is injured, we have some grit to pop in. Also good based on matchups.

 

[fishsandwichpatrol]

Yes but not as much as the past two years

 

[Frenzy31]

I don't think we are a Cup contender on paper right now. As somebody said, I can't figure out the identity of this team.

Two big questions are Binnington and Tarasenko. If the answer to both of those is positive, then we move up the ranks a bit.

But, we have essentially replaced JBo and Petro with Krug and Faulk. I'm fine with Krug as a player, but trying to compare him to either JBo or Petro does not work. I hope Faulk finds some form, but every time I saw him this past season I shook my head.

For a team that won based on defense, we have taken a step backwards in that respect. And let's face it, Binnington has been known to give up a rebound or two, and a defense that can keep the opponent away from those is important.

I also think the loss of Maroon hit us more than we thought it would, especially in the playoffs.

All that said, teams that were not Cup contenders on paper before the season sometimes do gel and bring the thing home.

I think COVID that took out 5 players played a far larger role then Maroon. I think losing Tank and Covid hurt this team going into the bubble. And PIE looked like poop in the bubble.

I think everyone here is way to pessimistic. We didn't essentially replace JBO and Petro, with Krug, Faulk. We essentially replaced JBo, Petro, and Edmonson with Krug, Faulk and Scandella. It is a down grade, but not quite to the level that everyone seems to feel. I kind of feel that Scandella and JBo are equivolent, but JE is a bottom pairing guy who didn't make our regular line up in the playoffs during the Playoff run. I feel the Krug and Faulk are both solid number 3 dmen. I think Scandella is a solid 4.

 

[Davimir Tarablad]

We're in that 2nd tier of teams in the West. Theoretically things could go all the right ways and we could make some deep runs. But I wouldn't like our chances year in and year out.

 

[Ted Hoffman]

I don't think we've had enough of a sample size to fully quantify the impact of losing JBo, so that might get lost in the background noise of any potential struggles next year. Hopefully one doesn't compound the other. I am cautiously optimistic, but I'm a Blues fan so I am numb to potential future disappointment.

This is the kind of optimism I've come to know and love [and join in the misery with] from Blues fans. Reminds me of my best friend who took his boy to a Blues game for the first time during the 2018-19 season. It was the Winnipeg game. [That Winnipeg game.] His kid was upset and crying late and asked, will every Blues game I go to going to be like this? And I said tell him "yep - get used to it, kid; this is life as a Blues fan.You go in excited and happy and think it'll be fun and they'll win, and they rip your heart out and stomp all over it and leave you depressed and then you get sucked back in to being a fan again. Don't worry, you get numb to it around the 7th or 8th time it happens."

 

[EastonBlues22]

As the are currently constructed, no, I do not think they are a legitimate contender.

 

[kimzey59]

I'm going with "unsure" but lean towards yes.
The big issue to me is how to define "Contender".

Right now; I think this lineup looks very similar to the teams we had under Hitchcock(slightly better offense, slightly worse defense but overall about the same).
Now; on one hand those teams rarely went far in the PO's.
On the other hand, they were consistently a top 5 team in the League during the regular season and easily could have gone farther with a break here or there.

As far as defining "Contender", I consider that group to be the top 5-10 teams in the League.
IMO, we are still pretty solidly in the 5-10 range League wide.
BY that definition, my answer is yes. However, we are much closer to #10 than we are #1. That is where the uncertainty factor comes in.

 

[HighNote]

If I were to categorize the teams like this:

Favorites
Contenders
Dark horses
Bubble teams
Below average
Trash
Detroit

I'd say we're either in the contenders category or the dark horses category. But I see no way that we're in the favorites category anymore, even at our best. But that is all on paper, what matters is what happens on the ice. I see several factors determining which category we end up in, but no matter how those factors play out, I see no way that we are more than contenders or less than a dark horse. The biggest factors for me are (in no particular order):

1. How we cope with losing Pietrangelo.
2. How well Parayko handles being "the guy" on the back end.
3. How well Krug performs for us.
4. If Faulk is given a role more suited to his playstyle and whether or not he performs well under those conditions.
5. If Binnington remains solid without a top 3 defensive team in front of him.
6. If Thomas and/or Kyrou can take the next step.
7. What kind of player Tarasenko returns as.
8. How Berube adapts to the teams personnel changes, namely the loss of Pietrangelo and Bouwmeester.

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

Yes, we are contenders. I wouldn't say we are favorites, but I would put us probably 3rd in the West behind Colorado and Vegas at this point.

 

[pdavemoney]

No, we're not a legit contender anymore. It's a good roster, not great. Problem is, there are a lot of good rosters. It depends on Binner more than anything. My prediction is we will be competing for a wild card spot. Anywhere between 5 to 10 in the West would be my guess. I hope I'm wrong!

 

[Frenzy31]

Yes, we are contenders. I wouldn't say we are favorites, but I would put us probably 3rd in the West behind Colorado and Vegas at this point.

Why Vegas? They have essentially traded their top dman, and second line center for Pie. And they still have to get rid of one more player to get under the cap.......

I don’t see it.

 

[LetsGoBooze]

Look how far the Stars went this year, were still on the same level as them. We wont be a favorite, but a contender who could possibly catch fire, absolutely.

 

[Mike Liut]

I dont see we're at best playoff team.

1) Colorado
2) Dallas
3) Vegas
4) Vancouver
5) Nashville
6) Calgary
7) Edmonton
8) Winnipeg
9) Arizona
10) Chicago / St Louis / Minnesota
11) Kings / Anaheim / San Jose

the difference between Petro and Krug is 30 points and 10 seeds? Damn son, that’s quite a stretch

 

[simon IC]

Using HighNotes model, I would put us somewhere between darkhorse and bubble team. The reason I have us that low is our defense construction as compared to other teams in the Conference, and the unknown element of our goaltending. I steadfastly maintain that defense wins championships, and right now Colorado, Dallas, Vegas, and Minnesota have better bluelines, at least on paper. Vancouver and Calgary have improved their defense too. Binnington will have to work harder, and if he isn't up to the task, we are in big trouble. Berube is going to have to adjust to his new transition game, and he is going to have to be much more strategic with his matchups. I hope he is up to the task. If Binnington returns to form and Berube adjusts favorably, I see us doing well in the regular season. Once the playoffs start, it is a whole new ball game. All it takes is a team to go into to shutdown team defense mode with a hot goaltender, and we are done in one round because we don't have the horses up front to respond.

 

[blues80]

I hope they completely fall apart and get high pick the next petro is with us

 

[Stlblue50]

We lose Petro/Allen and bring in Krug, Husso, and Clifford. Yet that takes us from 1st in the conference last season (90+% season played) to barley making the playoffs?!

 

[ChicagoBlues]

We lose Petro/Allen and bring in Krug, Husso, and Clifford. Yet that takes us from 1st in the conference last season (90+% season played) to barley making the playoffs?!

Keep in mind that the team would also be missing Tarasenko for a while.

By the 2021 NHL trade deadline, I expect the Blues to be “hanging around” the middle of the pack.

Hopefully, the Blues are doing well enough by the time the tdl arrives so Armstrong has the ability to make one or two trades to add a top-tier defenseman and/or a top-6 forward.

I am not sure who will be available, but shouldn’t be too hard to figure it out. And I’m also not very good at trade proposals.

Wishful, unrealistic optimism?

 

[Thallis]

I think the difference between Pietrangelo and Krug with the way we're constructed is middle/bubble team. We'll be fighting for the 3rd central seed and can fall outside the playoffs when all is said and done.

 

[Frenzy31]

Using HighNotes model, I would put us somewhere between darkhorse and bubble team. The reason I have us that low is our defense construction as compared to other teams in the Conference, and the unknown element of our goaltending. I steadfastly maintain that defense wins championships, and right now Colorado, Dallas, Vegas, and Minnesota have better bluelines, at least on paper. Vancouver and Calgary have improved their defense too. Binnington will have to work harder, and if he isn't up to the task, we are in big trouble. Berube is going to have to adjust to his new transition game, and he is going to have to be much more strategic with his matchups. I hope he is up to the task. If Binnington returns to form and Berube adjusts favorably, I see us doing well in the regular season. Once the playoffs start, it is a whole new ball game. All it takes is a team to go into to shutdown team defense mode with a hot goaltender, and we are done in one round because we don't have the horses up front to respond.

I don’t see Vegas and Min. having a better blue line. Dallas and the Avs I agree with. Possibly even Calgary.

 

[simon IC]

I don’t see Vegas and Min. having a better blue line. Dallas and the Avs I agree with. Possibly even Calgary.

Suter, Brodin, Spurgeon, and Dumba vs Krug, Scandella, Parayko, and Faulk. I don't know ... Parayko is the best of all of them, but outside of that, I think it is pretty close. Vegas could have the best 1st pairing in the League with Theodore-Pietrangelo. Martinez and Holden are not a bad supporting cast, and Nic Hague looks ready to step in.

 

[Ranksu]

the difference between Petro and Krug is 30 points and 10 seeds? Damn son, that’s quite a stretch

You need to remember Faulk was sheltered by Pietro. So we're left out who can take Pietro's minutes now? Parayko can sheltered some of Faulk's minutes, but now we've to sheltered Krug minutes too. Only solution is Dunn can't play, we can't have 3 dmen who we need to sheltere. Scandella will take some and its either Gunnar has to be healthy and play or bring Mikkola who is excatly defensive dmen + can play heavy minutes at PK and has played his career over +24 A/TOI/GP, his condition doesn't shake. Its crazy we've such a good dmen and he hasn't crack yet in the team. And he has been impressive at AHL too. Easily our best dmen in San Antonio.

 

[Reality Czech]

If I were to categorize the teams like this:

Favorites
Contenders
Dark horses
Bubble teams
Below average
Trash
Detroit

I'd say we're either in the contenders category or the dark horses category. But I see no way that we're in the favorites category anymore, even at our best. But that is all on paper, what matters is what happens on the ice. I see several factors determining which category we end up in, but no matter how those factors play out, I see no way that we are more than contenders or less than a dark horse. The biggest factors for me are (in no particular order):

1. How we cope with losing Pietrangelo.
2. How well Parayko handles being "the guy" on the back end.
3. How well Krug performs for us.
4. If Faulk is given a role more suited to his playstyle and whether or not he performs well under those conditions.
5. If Binnington remains solid without a top 3 defensive team in front of him.
6. If Thomas and/or Kyrou can take the next step.
7. What kind of player Tarasenko returns as.
8. How Berube adapts to the teams personnel changes, namely the loss of Pietrangelo and Bouwmeester.

All good points. I might add a few more:

How much of an impact will Mikkola have? If he can be a solid presence on the backend that will help a lot.

Can Sundqvist/Barbashev continue to develop and provide more? Blais as well.

I would personally make Krug/Parayko the top pair and roll Scandella/Faulk as the 2nd. Krug was top pair for the Bruins, I think we will get the most out of him by pairing him with Parayko. Faulk/Krug would get eaten alive, especially on the road when opponents can mix lines. Scandella might allow Faulk to play a bit more offense and take the heavier load on the defensive end.

There are still some interesting names available, so I hope we can at least make one more significant add. Will Dunn be moved? Army's interview makes me think it's not so likely, but if he is then maybe we can add a more defensive d-man or middle-six forward.

Without Tarasenko or another top 6 scorer, I can't say we are a top contender. However I would put us in the second tier of teams, and it might not take so much to bump us back up to that top tier. Lots of parity in the league and the Avs are the only team in the West I would definitively put ahead us. I do think Vancouver and Calgary will be a handful, and Edmonton may finally put it all together next year. For all the talk of Vegas, their center depth is awful. Not sure you can win it all with the group they have.