Salary Cap: Do you trust Kyle Dubas with salary negotiations? Deux

[A1LeafNation]

Didn't say that. I said that 7.5 was too low. You begin at around 8.5 for 8 years. Lucky to get 9 for 5 now.

So a million less is grounds to go off in an embarrassing fashion...a full year before his deal expires?

Ok.

 

[Menzinger]

You are arguing 49% over 50%? You believe 1 game is material?

The same applies to 50%.

1/2 a season scoring pace doesn’t determine long term contracts.

 

[Notsince67]

The same applies to 50%.

1/2 a season scoring pace doesn’t determine long term contracts.

Offering 7.5 on a 69 point player on a 40 game streak pace of 90 to 100 goals per season is stupidity. 8.5 would have been an absolute minimum for a kid like that. A 69 point pace would have netted 7.5 except the projected risk was he would score over 90 in the following year based on his development curve. That would pay him close to the 10mm range. Marner would never have signed that amount and he didn't. It just created tension around the negotiation. 8 to 8.5 should have been the openning offer and history has proved me right and you wrong.

 

[Bluelines]

Man, did Pens fans freak out this much when they signed Crosby and Malkin to 5-year contracts? Some folks around here need to put their crystal balls away and lighten up - This should be such an exciting time for us.

The craziest thing, too, is that the biggest crunch in the foreseeable future is next year, and the cap landscape is poised to go through a complete overhaul before even the half-way point of Matthews' contract, with, as The Joker would say, potential for aggressive expansion. We have Marleau, Horton and Hainsey coming off the books, with an already-rising cap, a new TV deal, a betting partnership, and an expansion coming.

Beyond that, we've got one of the guys responsible for helping craft the current CBA, and a front office that has always, always shown a complete understanding and respect for the salary cap and its implications - That people can be this insecure about the contracts this management team has given to legitimate superstar talent (the likes of which we haven't seen in this city in over a decade) is almost baffling.

Do I wish we'd gotten total sweetheart deals? Absolutely, and these are not those. But to take some minor over-payments to our best players (which will very likely look like fair - if not outright good - contracts by the time these players are actually fully developed) and extrapolate that into a Chicken Little situation, when we've got this much young talent on our team for the foreseeable future, feels like nothing more than an exercise in masochism. Or perhaps it's just wishful thinking...

Yep pretty much.

I love the fans who are freaking out because Matthews signed a 5 year deal and they KNOW he is 100% gone after those five years. These "special" fans have more confidence in their super natural powers ( predicting the future), than they do in basing their opinions on historical norms. The reality is ONE marquee UFA player has left his team in the last 5 to 10 years, and that guy was Tavares. Who was convinced to leave for the the Leafs by the very same guy (Dubas) who will be in charge to convince Matthews to re-up in 5.5 years.

I would suggest these fans who have these awesome supernatural powers to predict the future to maybe go on tour or open a tent at the local circus and make some cash.

..orrrr maybe, crazy thought, we just wait and see what happens over the next 3 to 4 years before we pass judgement on something that has not affected the team yet?

 

[Bluelines]

The same applies to 50%.

1/2 a season scoring pace doesn’t determine long term contracts.

Mitch has been on a pace of over a point per game for the last calendar year.

 

[Menzinger]

Offering 7.5 on a 69 point player on a 40 game streak pace of 90 to 100 goals per season is stupidity. 8.5 would have been an absolute minimum for a kid like that. A 69 point pace would have netted 7.5 except the projected risk was he would score over 90 in the following year based on his development curve. That would pay him close to the 10mm range. Marner would never have signed that amount and he didn't. It just created tension around the negotiation. 8 to 8.5 should have been the openning offer and history has proved me right and you wrong.

Minimum eh? Name a contract comparison, with similar numbers.

 

[Menzinger]

Mitch has been on a pace of over a point per game for the last calendar year.

We’re talking about the summer

 

[Bluelines]

more than likely not, because most players at their time were signing either 2-3 bridge years or 5-6 ones

and - again. people can enjoy the young talent on the team and still be pissed off about the contracts given out.

In the case of the Pens, if your team wins the the cup, why do contracts matter? Is the goal to win a cup or to manage to a margin?

Will you enjoy Matthews elite play any less because he is at 11.6 mil? Do you enjoy Tavares less because he is at 11 mil?

Fans need to stop being amateur capologists and get back to enjoying the on ice product. Leave the bean counting to the bean counters.

The Pens and the Black Hawks both signed their 2 marquee players to 5 year contracts after their RFA contracts expired and things seemed to work out well for them, multiple cups and Malkin/Crosby and Toews/Kane are all still with their respective teams. Maybe 5 year contracts are not all that bad of a thing.

 

[Bluelines]

We’re talking about the summer

I would think you would want a larger sample size to determine consistency of production.

 

[Notsince67]

Minimum eh? Name a contract comparison, with similar numbers.

Minimum eh? Name a contract comparison, with similar numbers.

This has been done to death. Here is an easy guideline for you. 60 points 6mm. 70 points 7 mm. 80 pts 8mm. That assumes linearity of dollars per point which we know isnt the case. You were one of the first who said willy would be lowballed at 6mm. Showing a trend of over 90 points...an 8.5mm offer would have been a good compromise as an opening offer to help mitigate the risks on both sides. 10mm was a top level risk before the market moved if Marner could put up 100 pts and that was a real risk with Tavares joining the team. You dont mitigate risk for free. It has a real cost. That is why banks hedge interest rate related liabilities instead allowing rates to float. It is a very basic concept that u seem incapable of understanding.

 

[Menzinger]

This has been done to death. Here is an easy guideline for you. 60 points 6mm. 70 points 7 mm. 80 pts 8mm. That assumes linearity of dollars per point which we know isnt the case. You were one of the first who said willy would be lowballed at 6mm. Showing a trend of over 90 points...an 8.5mm offer would have been a good compromise as an opening offer to help mitigate the risks on both sides. 10mm was a top level risk before the market moved if Marner could put up 100 pts and that was a real risk with Tavares joining the team. You dont mitigate risk for free. It has a real cost. That is why banks hedge interest rate related liabilities instead allowing rates to float. It is a very basic concept that u seem incapable of understanding.

So you can’t name a comparable contract? (I know because they don’t exist).

Showing a trend is a good sign, but not enough to be guaranteed a MINIMUM (your words) contract of that level. He maybe had a case for an 8x8 contract at that time.

 

[Menzinger]

I would think you would want a larger sample size to determine consistency of production.

Which is why Dubas likely opted to wait, rather than offer him the contract of a 90 point player during last summer.

 

[kb]

his salary would be off the cap if he's hurt, but his shoulder's are somewhat concerning.

 

[Notsince67]

So you can’t name a comparable contract? (I know because they don’t exist).

Showing a trend is a good sign, but not enough to be guaranteed a MINIMUM (your words) contract of that level. He maybe had a case for an 8x8 contract at that time.

again you seem either incapable of understanding a basic concept or you are being purposely obtuse. If you felt that Nylander was worth pasternak money plus inflation at 61 points as his elc upside, how do you equate paying Marner less per point? Your views are inconsistent. Pasta plus inflation would have been 7.1mm. That would yield a higher $ per point than Marner at 8MM. Only a fool would have predicted that Marner would come in at or lower than 69 points this year. I know you love Nylander but your bias has tainted your view on Marner. For Marner to score as many or less points than the 69 he had last year with an elite center on his line, his performance would have had to deteriorate significantly.

 

[rumman]

again you seem either incapable of understanding a basic concept or you are being purposely obtuse. If you felt that Nylander was worth pasternak money plus inflation at 61 points as his elc upside, how do you equate paying Marner less per point? Your views are inconsistent. Pasta plus inflation would have been 7.1mm. That would yield a higher $ per point than Marner at 8MM. Only a fool would have predicted that Marner would come in at or lower than 69 points this year. I know you love Nylander but your bias has tainted your view on Marner. For Marner to score as many or less points than the 69 he had last year with an elite center on his line, his performance would have had to deteriorate significantly.

this debate is inane, no one with any unbiased hockey knowledge thinks Nylander is or will ever be a better players than Marner is or will be. No team, not one would take Nylander before Marner even considering the higher cost Marner will command (and deserve). I get that people like Nylander, young, good looking kid who is offensively gifted, but please stop confusing that with a complete player, one who plays all aspects of the game at a truly elite level, drives his line (regardless of line mates), plays PP/PK minutes, isn't afraid to engage in the physical aspects of the game even though he's the smallest player on the team.

 

[Mr Hockey]

IMO, If they don't give Matthews the "C", that tells me they think he may leave at the end of this contract.

 

[drewjenks]

Really wish we signed everyone last summer but Dubas wasn’t very smart and said we are in no rush. Fast forward to now and the players he was in no rush to sign are all playing great and are going to make a ton more then what we could have signed them for. Probably could have got Marner for 9x6-8 years and Matthews 11x6-8 years.

Those would have been massive over payments last summer.

Given that we signed Nylander for 6.9 .... they would have been more like:

$6,900,000 x 6 years = Nylander
$7,900,000 x 6 years = Marner
$9,900,000 x 6 years = Matthews

But they didn't sooo ..................

 

[Pi]

Yeah, I trust him with the team and negotiations even if I feel that Matthews should be signed for 8 years instead of 5. As long as everyone is signed, that's all that matters. UFA is full of junk anyways...you don't see a Tavares type player every year.

Keep your best players happy.

In the end, what is going to hurt us isn't Matthews. It will be contracts like Zaitsev's and Marleau (for next year).

 

[TDotMassive]

you actually thought Mathews was going to sign for 11.63 for just 5 yrs ?

I dunno, I was thinking $12 for 6 for a long time... Dubas got a year less, but about $400k less too. I heard Matthews say they ran every scenario between 3 and 8 years, and they settled where both were most comfortable.

 

[rumman]

IMO, If they don't give Matthews the "C", that tells me they think he may leave at the end of this contract.

I'd give it to JT, let one of the kids earn it, Mathews could be that kid if he doesn't leave for Vegas in 5 years?

 

[ImpartialNHLfan]

Yep pretty much.

I love the fans who are freaking out because Matthews signed a 5 year deal and they KNOW he is 100% gone after those five years. These "special" fans have more confidence in their super natural powers ( predicting the future), than they do in basing their opinions on historical norms. The reality is ONE marquee UFA player has left his team in the last 5 to 10 years, and that guy was Tavares. Who was convinced to leave for the the Leafs by the very same guy (Dubas) who will be in charge to convince Matthews to re-up in 5.5 years.

I would suggest these fans who have these awesome supernatural powers to predict the future to maybe go on tour or open a tent at the local circus and make some cash.

..orrrr maybe, crazy thought, we just wait and see what happens over the next 3 to 4 years before we pass judgement on something that has not affected the team yet?

Im not really worried that Matthews will bolt, infact im pretty confident he'll sign an extension. What really bums me out though is he's going to cash in even bigger on his next contract while McDavid, Pasta, Kuch, Drai, etc... will still be on there contracts now. It's not really the best situation to be in to be honest.

 

[Bluelines]

Im not really worried that Matthews will bolt, infact im pretty confident he'll sign an extension. What really bums me out though is he's going to cash in even bigger on his next contract while McDavid, Pasta, Kuch, Drai, etc... will still be on there contracts now. It's not really the best situation to be in to be honest.

Which is likely to happen but if we get to 5 years down the road and the cap increases like it is expected to, we should have plenty of cash then. If we get 5 years down the road and Matthews can command 15 million , that is a good thing because it tells us that for the previous 5 years he preformed at an elite level.

 

[BoredBrandonPridham]

Those would have been massive over payments last summer.

Given that we signed Nylander for 6.9 .... they would have been more like:

$6,900,000 x 6 years = Nylander
$7,900,000 x 6 years = Marner
$9,900,000 x 6 years = Matthews

But they didn't sooo ..................

Source that this was an option? Or like always you’re just talking out of your ass...

 

[Wafflewhipper]

If only overpaying your players meant you got better performance out of them. In reality, it seldom works out that way. Which is why good GMs don't do that.

Who has he over paid here!!! Matthews is right there with the very best players in the league easily. Willy is a great contract for a core player of his current ability and for banking on his development curve projection in the future.

Willy has so many tools to offer in the future that can add so much value to team building and flexability.

Willy being a natural skilled center with a deadly shot and skating ability up there with the elite and a great possession numbers over a very good sample size should not be missed by anyone when evaluating the entire context of a contract.

Kadri will could and should be the pawn contract that will in effect further the asset management and cap management if needed in the near future.

Willy simply moves to center naturally at that point and Kadri moves on and replenishes our prospects or possible a roster player and picks.

I see paying our three amigos/ core players exactly what they are worth as unpreventable and the cost of doing business. I have very little concern about cap efficiency here even when Marner gets as much as Matthews on his contract beyond 1 tough season next year.

I most definitely want all our core earning what is fair. Asset management as we roll on and great development is the unknown. Dubas is a very good young executive.

He's awesome so far.

 

[Sniper99]

Stupid. So nylander got 300 400k too much Matthew's bang on I dont get a lot of you people here. When we keep all 4 and win a cup that's what counts

Where do you get your crystal ball from?

Lets get passed the 1st round and then we'll start looking towards a cup.