Do You Think The Oilers Have Done Enough To Help McDrai Win The Cup?

[bucks_oil]

In what world is a .908 sv% and 2.61 GAA HOF worthy? Skinner was .906 and 2.45 GAA this past playoffs.

"Near HOF" Letang was 6th on the Pens in ES TOI in the 2009 playoffs. He was a PP specialist at that point. Bouchard is considerably more impactful than Letang was at that age.

Crosby and McDavid are both generational talents that produce regardless, peak Malkin was at that level also, Draisaitl not so much.

Fleury is #2 All-Time in wins for goalies. 9-time All Star, a Vezina, and a three time cup winner. He's going to the hall of fame.

And his performance in that finals, especially the last two games to clinch it, was legendary... I know, because I was at game 7, behind his net when he made that diving chest save with however many seconds left.

Dave... We all know you hate McDavid... you don't need to drag other players through the mud to make your point: you still wish he was a Leaf.

 

[bucks_oil]

So...

Looks like Kane just had knee surgery? Sorry if I'm late to the party and it's covered in this thread, but that was definitely news to me.

The timing of this looks like they are positioning for him to be out until the playoffs. 4-8 week recovery before he can even start training.

That means we likely have about ~$8M in cap space at the deadline, not $3M. Enough for a #4 D and a goalie.

Things could get interesting.

 

[Coffey]

So...

Looks like Kane just had knee surgery? Sorry if I'm late to the party and it's covered in this thread, but that was definitely news to me.

The timing of this looks like they are positioning for him to be out until the playoffs. 4-8 week recovery before he can even start training.

That means we likely have about ~$8M in cap space at the deadline, not $3M. Enough for a #4 D and a goalie.

Things could get interesting.

Time for the GOLDEN OILERS to shine.

 

[TheLegend27]

This is why those two are losers, they never are in a position where they struggle and have to overcome it.

They literally were last place last season after losing to the sharks. Virtually all analysts thought they wouldn’t even make the playoffs before their 16 win streak, never mind making the finals. Is that not adversity enough?. I’d rather put McDrai together and try to salvage a game rather than die on a hill saying “we lost, but atleast they drove their own lines”

 

[daver]

They literally were last place last season after losing to the sharks. Virtually all analysts thought they wouldn’t even make the playoffs before their 16 win streak, never mind making the finals. Is that not adversity enough?. I’d rather put McDrai together and try to salvage a game rather than die on a hill saying “we lost, but atleast they drove their own lines”

This is a reasonable opinion. Perhaps comparisons shouldn't be made to players who were able to successfully drive their own lines with equally inept forwards.

 

[bambamcam4ever]

Fleury 2.61 / .908 24GP 10 games below .900, 3 games below .850%
Skinner 2.45/ . 901 23 GP 11 games below .900%, 6 games below .850%

Fleury was statistically better, and had a few less horrible games, but who is to say.

The league average SV% was 8 points higher in 09.

There's no way Stuart Skinner beats that 2009 Red Wings team, that's a better team than the Panthers.

MAF's 2009 stats are skewed more because he had a poor series against Washington and Pittbsurgh caught a lucky break in that Washington's goaltending was almost as bad rendering that factor moot. But he was good in the 3 other playoff rounds and good in the Finals especially with the series on the line he elevated his game.

Crosby was awful in the 2009 Finals. Malkin got them close to the Cup, but MAF took them over the top and won it for them. That's a team effort.

LOL. Washington's goaltending was bad? You're just admitting you didn't watch the series.

Varlamov was bad in game 7 but very good before that. Penguins were out playing WSH but Fleury kept the Capitals in it.

 

[bambamcam4ever]

It's misleading. Skinner was sub .900 in the first 3 games of the series while Bob was oustanding, that put the Oilers in an 0-3 hole. The fact that they climbed out of it and damn near won is commendable, but with a better goalie there's a good chance they're not down 0-3 in the first place.

Saying Stuart Skinner is about as good as MAF is a joke.

Bob's numbers were also skewed because the Oilers ran up the score in a couple of games. When he needed to be, he was money again in game 7.

It's not just stats, it's about goalies who can elevate and take over a game, MAF can do that, that's crucial in securing Cups.

Red Wings are 2009 Cup Champions if they were playing Stuart Skinner, zero doubt in my mind. Crosby wasn't even good in that series, lol, Malkin was not beating the Red Wings himself.



Crosby shat the bed for the entire 2009 Cup Final. McDavid is the main reason the Oilers came back and almost pulled off a miracle comeback and won the Conn Smythe trophy as a result.

So running up the score can skew numbers? Hmmm I'll have to keep that in mind for #97.

 

[nucks88]

They must have, weren’t they the overwhelming favourites of the “ experts”?

 

[Soundwave]

So running up the score can skew numbers? Hmmm I'll have to keep that in mind for #97.

The Oilers are the kind of team that can crater a goalie's save percentage when they get rolling sure, they can put 6 or 7 goals up in a hurry sometimes, not sure why that is some kind of "gotcha!" to discredit the best player in the world. These debates always generally devolve into stupidity.

There's no single person alive on this board that would take Stuart Skinner over a prime MAF in a do or die playoff game. To say that wasn't a huge advantage for Crosby is ridiculous. They don't win in 2009 without MAF, Detroit had that Cup basically won, MAF tilted the series the other way in game 6 and 7 to win it for Pittsburgh.

Skinner doesn't have the upper end skill level to take over a game or two and change a series like that.

If the Oilers had a goalie like MAF in net in the playoffs last year? Yeah, they probably win the Cup. Florida wasn't that much better than Edmonton in games 1/2/3 that they should have been up 3-0, a goalie tilting even one of those games could tilt the entire series.

 

[PainForShane]

Fleury 2.61 / .908 24GP 10 games below .900, 3 games below .850%
Skinner 2.45/ . 901 23 GP 11 games below .900%, 6 games below .850%

Fleury was statistically better, and had a few less horrible games, but who is to say.

Seriously Drebin?

Instead of copying and pasting random stats across eras (which tell us absolutely nothing because they can't and shouldn't be compared as the league scoring environment obviously changed over the past 15 years), the stat that's commonly used to talk about consistency is called Quality Starts (and Quality start %). For once it's a stat that's accurately named and easy to understand, unlike Corsi and Fenwick which should have just been named some version of SF/SA or something.

Anyway QS measure the number of starts where the goalie has a higher percentage than the league-wide average sv% that year, or if there were fewer than 20 shots, the save percentage was above 88.5%. A QS% of less than 50% is bad, more than 60% is very good, somewhere around 53-56% is decent and about what you'd expect from a good goalie. You can easily look this stat up on hockey reference.

***

Fleury's playoff QS% in 2009: 43.5% which is not good. Of course some of that was that he faced good offenses, but he was not consistently good in the playoffs that year, I think everyone knows that. Marc-André Fleury Stats, Height, Weight, Position, Title | Hockey-Reference.com

Skinner's playoff QS% in 2024: 52.2% which is respectable, definitely shows he was more consistent. I don't think anyone should be surprised by this either, whether or not you think he's actually a good goalie, Skinner was steady back there in this year's playoffs.

The other stat people generally use to evaluate goaltending performance across eras is GSAA -- which I don't personally like because it doesn't factor in quality of shot allowed. Regardless, both Fleury and Skinner were about the same here, Fleury at -0.2 total over 24 games, Skinner -1.5 over 23 games, so this stat implies both slightly below average and basically the same (difference of a single goal over their entire playoff.

***

But, to everyone else's points, these numbers do NOT include pressure situations. For instance that year MAF repeatedly came up big when he needed to -- stopped Ovi on that partial breakaway early in game seven against the Caps, and of course that huge save against Lidstrom in game 7, which given the situation was arguably the best save ever made in the history of the NHL playoffs.



***

All this to say I don't feel comfortable saying Skinner would've won with the Pens in 2009, despite having a similar stat line (and better advanced stat line) in last year's playoffs. Overall stat lines often don't tell the whole story, and Fleury came up with game-changing saves in multiple game 7s in 2009.

 

[TheNumber4]

This argument used to go "Is McDavid getting enough help in Edmonton?"

But since Draisaitl is help, the best help you can possibly get, I guess the argument needs to change in order to take pot shots at the Oilers.

But to answer the NEWLY formed question. The Oilers providing a generationally playoff producing #1 defenceman in Bouchard is pretty good help. The Oilers signing maybe the best free agency signing of the last 5 years in Hyman in also pretty good help. The Oilers making one of the best trades in the last 5 years in acquiring Ekholm is also pretty good help. This is better help for McD than most any teams in the League could offer to McDrai.

The Oilers depth seems to be widely criticized and was all playoffs long last year. Meanwhile that purpose built depth put up the best PK numbers in NHL history. And that lack of depth out played the vaunted depths of the Nucks and the Stars.

All reasons why McDrai were 1 game away from winning it all last year. So yes the Oilers have provided adequate help for McDrai to win it all.

 

[I Hate Blake Coleman]

Of course not. It's an organization run by dumb f***s. I hope if they win a Cup, it's with some other team.

 

[bambamcam4ever]

The Oilers are the kind of team that can crater a goalie's save percentage when they get rolling sure, they can put 6 or 7 goals up in a hurry sometimes, not sure why that is some kind of "gotcha!" to discredit the best player in the world. These debates always generally devolve into stupidity.

There's no single person alive on this board that would take Stuart Skinner over a prime MAF in a do or die playoff game. To say that wasn't a huge advantage for Crosby is ridiculous. They don't win in 2009 without MAF, Detroit had that Cup basically won, MAF tilted the series the other way in game 6 and 7 to win it for Pittsburgh.

Skinner doesn't have the upper end skill level to take over a game or two and change a series like that.

If the Oilers had a goalie like MAF in net in the playoffs last year? Yeah, they probably win the Cup. Florida wasn't that much better than Edmonton in games 1/2/3 that they should have been up 3-0, a goalie tilting even one of those games could tilt the entire series.

Prime MAF single handedly lost several playoff series with Crosby and Malkin at their peaks. He was not a difference maker in winning a single series between 2008 and the Capitals series in 2017. But he was a difference maker in losing them games and series.

And while Fleury was good in the 2009 SCF, he was not the primary reason they won games 6 and 7. The Penguins commitment to team defense strangled the Red Wings attack. Hell, in the final minute of game 6 it wasn't Fleury making multiple goal line saves to preserve the lead, it was Rob Scuderi after MAF slid out of position.

 

[VivaLasVegas]

IMHO, the Oilers have put together probably as good a team this season as they could have assembled with their cap constraints and other factors, considering that some missteps (Campbell) were inevitable and nobody puts together a perfect team. Whether that was enough, well, ask me in July and then I will tell you with perfect hindsight.

 

[TheNumber4]

Prime MAF single handedly lost several playoff series with Crosby and Malkin at their peaks. He was not a difference maker in winning a single series between 2008 and the Capitals series in 2017. But he was a difference maker in losing them games and series.

And while Fleury was good in the 2009 SCF, he was not the primary reason they won games 6 and 7. The Penguins commitment to team defense strangled the Red Wings attack. Hell, in the final minute of game 6 it wasn't Fleury making multiple goal line saves to preserve the lead, it was Rob Scuderi after MAF slid out of position.

True. And this Fleury history seems to have been forgotten with time. The dude wasn't a contributor to a Cup in those years, he was a liability.

 

[LTIR]

Too much partying the league for any team to be clear favorites.
it's a toss up once playoffs start where any team can upset another.

 

[Soundwave]

Prime MAF single handedly lost several playoff series with Crosby and Malkin at their peaks. He was not a difference maker in winning a single series between 2008 and the Capitals series in 2017. But he was a difference maker in losing them games and series.

And while Fleury was good in the 2009 SCF, he was not the primary reason they won games 6 and 7. The Penguins commitment to team defense strangled the Red Wings attack. Hell, in the final minute of game 6 it wasn't Fleury making multiple goal line saves to preserve the lead, it was Rob Scuderi after MAF slid out of position.

He was a difference maker in 2009 when he put the Penguins on his back in game 6 and 7 and delivered a Cup to Pittbsurgh, otherwise the parade was ready to go in Detroit.

The other years where he slumped, sure, but that just goes to show, Crosby and Malkin couldn't do shit in the playoffs without really good goaltending and they regularly went out in round 1 or 2 those years.

There's no team that McDavid's been on that Crosby would win a Cup with. He got way more run support from all his goalie's in the years he won, not to mention Malkin, Letang, and then also Kessel (this would be like adding Eichel to McDavid and Draisaitl).

This is the Pens goaltending in the 4 years they made a Cup Finals

2008:
Round 1: .955 vs Ott (MAF)
Round 2: .924 vs NYR (MAF)
Round 3: .939 vs Philly (MAF)
Round 4: .923 vs Detroit (MAF) lost

2009:
Round 1: .922 vs Philly (MAF)
Round 2: .878 vs Washington (MAF, Washington had .895)
Round 3: .924 vs Carolina (MAF)
Round 4: .913 (MAF) vs Detroit

2016:
Round 1: .955 vs NYR (Murray)
Round 2: .926 vs Wash (Murray)
Round 3: .904 vs (Murray) vs. Tampa
Round 4: .920 (Murray) vs San Jose

2017:
Round 1: .933 vs Clb (MAF)
Round 2: .921 vs Wash (MAF)
Round 3: .946 vs Ottawa (Murray/MAF)
Round 4: .931 vs Nash (Murray)

That's 4 playoff runs and a whopping two poor playoff rounds total in goaltending out of 16 playoff rounds. I'd say that's pretty f***ing amazing. And for one of those Washington also had sub .900 goaltending.

Not only that in those runs when Pittsburgh ran into like a game 7 ... quite often it was their goalie and NOT Crosby or Malkin who was their best player in a winner takes all situation.

Like 2016, the "bad" playoff round Murray had against Tampa? In game 7 he was very good with a .941 save percentage, Crosby had 0 goals, Malkin had 2 secondary assists. Brandon Rust scored both goals in a 2-1 g7 win (go figure).

2017 ... Pittsburgh beats Washingon in 7 games, in game 7 MAF has a *shut out* 2-0, Malkin zero points, Crosby one secondary assist, Rust with the game/series winner (this dude is underrated). Etc. etc.

 

[I Hate Blake Coleman]

What about the 09 Penguins?

And Letang didn't even play in 2017

Staal and Gonchar aren't chopped liver. Orpik and Scuderi weren't half bad either, not world beaters but certainly not a couple of nobodies. Kunitz was decent too.

 

[daver]

He was a difference maker in 2009 when he put the Penguins on his back in game 6 and 7 and delivered a Cup to Pittbsurgh, otherwise the parade was ready to go in Detroit.

The other years where he slumped, sure, but that just goes to show, Crosby and Malkin couldn't do shit in the playoffs without really good goaltending and they regularly went out in round 1 or 2 those years.

There's no team that McDavid's been on that Crosby would win a Cup with. He got way more run support from all his goalie's in the years he won, not to mention Malkin, Letang, and then also Kessel (this would be like adding Eichel to McDavid and Draisaitl).

This is the Pens goaltending in the 4 years they made a Cup Finals

2008:
Round 1: .955 vs Ott (MAF)
Round 2: .924 vs NYR (MAF)
Round 3: .939 vs Philly (MAF)
Round 4: .923 vs Detroit (MAF) lost

2009:
Round 1: .922 vs Philly (MAF)
Round 2: .878 vs Washington (MAF, Washington had .895)
Round 3: .924 vs Carolina (MAF)
Round 4: .913 (MAF) vs Detroit

2016:
Round 1: .955 vs NYR (Murray)
Round 2: .926 vs Wash (Murray)
Round 3: .904 vs (Murray) vs. Tampa
Round 4: .920 (Murray) vs San Jose

2017:
Round 1: .933 vs Clb (MAF)
Round 2: .921 vs Wash (MAF)
Round 3: .946 vs Ottawa (Murray/MAF)
Round 4: .931 vs Nash (Murray)

That's 4 playoff runs and a whopping two poor playoff rounds total in goaltending out of 16 playoff rounds. I'd say that's pretty f***ing amazing. And for one of those Washington also had sub .900 goaltending.

Not only that in those runs when Pittsburgh ran into like a game 7 ... quite often it was their goalie and NOT Crosby or Malkin who was their best player in a winner takes all situation.

Like 2016, the "bad" playoff round Murray had against Tampa? In game 7 he was very good with a .941 save percentage, Crosby had 0 goals, Malkin had 2 secondary assists. Brandon Rust scored both goals in a 2-1 g7 win (go figure).

2017 ... Pittsburgh beats Washingon in 7 games, in game 7 MAF has a *shut out* 2-0, Malkin zero points, Crosby one secondary assist, Rust with the game/series winner (this dude is underrated). Etc. etc.

The fact that you had to write a short story to try to dismiss Crosby and Malkin's success is very telling.

Crosby would give any of McDavid's teams a better chance, he is the better all around player and a proven winner at every level he has played.

 

[Soundwave]

The fact that you had to write a short story to try to dismiss Crosby and Malkin's success is very telling.

Crosby would give any of McDavid's teams a better chance, he is the better all around player and a proven winner at every level he has played.

It took 5 minutes to look that up it's not terribly hard. There's a thing called Google and Hockey Reference these days.

I don't even agree with your second point. I don't think Crosby would get that team that McDavid was on last season to a Cup Final even in his prime.

We saw Crosby when MAF was off his game for a few years and the Penguins routinely got beat in round 1 or round 2, take away the goaltending and Crosby would lose in round 2/3, especially with Draisaitl injured. He did so even with Malkin in years where he didn't have MAF or Murray holding the fort.

Pittsburgh has a huge advantage in goaltending and everyone knows it, you're not to even convince Stuart Skinner's mom let alone anyone on this board that he is a MAF tier goaltender.

 

[Chainshot]

Time for the GOLDEN OILERS to shine.

Are you implying that what happens in Edmonton stays in Edmonton?

 

[Fataldogg]

No. They haven't addressed their goaltending issue. Stuart Skinner isn't winning anything.