Do you think that our Johnny plays even more on the wing?

[sxvnert]

I prefer having JT on the wing who could slot back into the C if someone goes down. Wouldnt mind picking up another C/W type for the bottom six to slot into the #3C spot to keep the Tavares/O'Reilly/Marner line together.

 

[Antropovsky]

+/- is not a defensive stat. If anything, it shows they've been really good offensively, while getting great goaltending behind them. They've been our weakest line defensively.z))
)0)

@Jamison well there you have it... God has spoken. @Dekes For Days since you've stated this as a fact and not an opinion, surely you will present analytics to support this? Because until now @Jamison has more supporting evidence than you. Given you've given absolutely zero evidence to support your claim.

A positive plus/minus means Matthews line has been on the ice for more goals against... A good offense can be a good defense.

Until proven otherwise the fact stands Matthews line has been better

 

[Dekes For Days]

@Dekes For Days since you've stated this as a fact and not an opinion, surely you will present analytics to support this? Because until now @Jamison has more supporting evidence than you.

He didn't provide any evidence. He just tried to use +/- as a measure of defensive ability, even though it isn't.
Nylander, Bunting, and Matthews are bottom 3 in xGA/60 among our regular forwards, and that line while together has been even worse defensively.
They've been dynamite offensively, and goaltending is covering for their defense, so it ends up being an effective line, but that doesn't change the fact that they have been our weakest line defensively. There's only so much Matthews can do.

 

[Antropovsky]

He didn't provide any evidence. He just tried to use +/- as a measure of defensive ability, even though it isn't.
Nylander, Bunting, and Matthews are bottom 3 in xGA/60 among our regular forwards, and that line while together has been even worse defensively.
They've been dynamite offensively, and goaltending is covering for their defense, so it ends up being an effective line, but that doesn't change the fact that they have been our weakest line defensively. There's only so much Matthews can do.

Xgoal differential there line is higher than Tavares and Marners. So that would lead one to believe they are the better overall line. Goaltending Is covering for their defense? Is the 5% between Marner and Bunting that signficant that one would believe the goalies are saving Matthews line more than Marners?

 

[Dekes For Days]

Xgoal differential there line is higher than Tavares and Marners. So that would lead one to believe they are the better overall line.

We were talking about defensively, not overall.

Is the 5% between Marner and Bunting that signficant that one would believe the goalies are saving Matthews line more than Marners?

...What are you talking about?

 

[Twowingcantfly]

A good +/- is a player/line's ability to possess the puck more while outscoring your opponent. Poor skaters that score/like to score points almost always have a terrible +/-, because they can't skate fast enough to win position over their opponent. Now that we've got that cleared up, let's get back to the topic at hand.

 

[notDatsyuk]

@Jamison well there you have it... God has spoken. @Dekes For Days since you've stated this as a fact and not an opinion, surely you will present analytics to support this? Because until now @Jamison has more supporting evidence than you. Given you've given absolutely zero evidence to support your claim.

A positive plus/minus means Matthews line has been on the ice for more goals against... A good offense can be a good defense.

Until proven otherwise the fact stands Matthews line has been better

To an extent he's right. If you look at just the goals allowed at even strength, it's a lot closer:
Bunting - 29
Matthews - 37
Nylander - 37
Tavares - 40
Marner - 41

Assuming that the same goalie is on the ice for the Matthews line as for the Tavares line (I think it was Dekes who suggested +/- is affected by different goaltending performance), then they are all about even. Matthews with over a minute more ES per game and Willy having played part of the season with JT helps explain why their numbers are only marginally better than JT and Mitch. (Although the fact they still have been on the ice for fewer goals against at even strength doesn't support his argument that they are worse defensively.)

The bigger difference comes in ES goals for:
Matthews - 61
Nylander - 56
Bunting - 55
Marner - 52
Tavares - 44

So basically Matthews and Nylander are a bit better defensively than Mitch and JT; and Matthews, Nylander, and Marner are all a fair bit better than JT offensively, at least at even strength.

 

[Dekes For Days]

To an extent he's right. If you look at just the goals allowed at even strength, it's a lot closer:
Bunting - 29
Matthews - 37
Nylander - 37
Tavares - 40
Marner - 41

Assuming that the same goalie is on the ice for the Matthews line as for the Tavares line (I think it was Dekes who suggested +/- is affected by different goaltending performance), then they are all about even. Matthews with over a minute more ES per game and Willy having played part of the season with JT helps explain why their numbers are only marginally better than JT and Mitch. (Although the fact they still have been on the ice for fewer goals against at even strength doesn't support his argument that they are worse defensively.)

The bigger difference comes in ES goals for:
Matthews - 61
Nylander - 56
Bunting - 55
Marner - 52
Tavares - 44

So basically Matthews and Nylander are a bit better defensively than Mitch and JT; and Matthews, Nylander, and Marner are all a fair bit better than JT offensively, at least at even strength.

Goals against is a measure of skater defensive metrics and goaltending impact (which is not evenly distributed) combined. It is not a measure of the skater's defense alone.
You are making the same mistake that was already explained to you in regards to +/-.
The 1st line is better offensively (4.59 > 3.56 GF/60 at 5v5). The 2nd line is better defensively (2.29 > 3.05 xGA/60 at 5v5).
Individually, Matthews = Marner > Nylander > Tavares offensively.
Individually, Matthews = Marner > Tavares > Nylander defensively.

 

[notDatsyuk]

Goals against is a measure of skater defensive metrics and goaltending impact (which is not evenly distributed) combined. It is not a measure of the skater's defense alone.
You are making the same mistake that was already explained to you in regards to +/-.
The 1st line is better offensively (4.59 > 3.56 GF/60 at 5v5). The 2nd line is better defensively (2.29 > 3.05 xGA/60 at 5v5).
Individually, Matthews = Marner > Nylander > Tavares offensively.
Individually, Matthews = Marner > Tavares > Nylander defensively.

Please explain why the goaltenders play better for Matthews and Nylander than they do for Marner and (especially) Tavares? Do they dislike JT, so they deliberately let in more goals when he's on the ice?

On second thought, please don't. Your responses, while humourous (JT is better defensively than Willy?) are just a pointless distraction.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Please explain why the goaltenders play better for Matthews and Nylander than they do for Marner and (especially) Tavares?

Goaltending impact inherently fluctuates as a function of the position - throughout a game, throughout a season, throughout a career. I don't know why you would expect goaltending impact to be equally distributed amongst all lines and players at all times. That's illogical.

If the Matthews/Nylander/Bunting line give up a breakaway, and the goalie stops it, and then the Tavares/Marner line comes out and a floater from the blueline sneaks in, that doesn't make the Matthews/Nylander/Bunting line better defensively.

Just as Nylander's on-ice goals against was hurt by goaltending impacts last year (resulting in an on-ice GA/60 at 5v5 that was much worse than his on-ice xGA/60), Nylander's on-ice goals against is being helped this year by goaltending impacts (resulting in an on-ice GA/60 at 5v5 that is much better than his on-ice xGA/60).

The 1st line has been better offensively (4.59 > 3.56 GF/60 at 5v5). The 2nd line has been better defensively (2.29 > 3.05 xGA/60 at 5v5).

 

[notDatsyuk]

Goaltending impact inherently fluctuates as a function of the position - throughout a game, throughout a season, throughout a career. I don't know why you would expect goaltending impact to be equally distributed amongst all lines and players at all times. That's illogical.

If the Matthews/Nylander/Bunting line give up a breakaway, and the goalie stops it, and then the Tavares/Marner line comes out and a floater from the blueline sneaks in, that doesn't make the Matthews/Nylander/Bunting line better defensively.

Just as Nylander's on-ice goals against was hurt by goaltending impacts last year (resulting in an on-ice GA/60 at 5v5 that was much worse than his on-ice xGA/60), Nylander's on-ice goals against is being helped this year by goaltending impacts (resulting in an on-ice GA/60 at 5v5 that is much better than his on-ice xGA/60).

The 1st line has been better offensively (4.59 > 3.56 GF/60 at 5v5). The 2nd line has been better defensively (2.29 > 3.05 xGA/60 at 5v5).

You can use that with some validity for a couple of games, but we're looking at 3/4 of a season.

The convolutions you go through to try to justify JT's signing are impressive to say the least.

 

[kb]

Not sure how a player is a disappointment or a waste of cap space when that player has 26 G and 60 P in 58 games.

 

[Dekes For Days]

You can use that with some validity for a couple of games, but we're looking at 3/4 of a season.
The convolutions you go through to try to justify JT's signing are impressive to say the least.

It takes more than 50-something games for stuff like that to even out.
Just like it didn't even out for Nylander in the opposite direction over 81 games last year. Weird how I didn't see you talking about how horrible Nylander was defensively then...
You can't attribute goaltending impacts to skaters.
It's odd that you equate not dumping on Tavares at every turn to "convolutions". Tavares' signing doesn't need justifying, and this isn't even about Tavares.
It's about knowing what factors into statistics and using them correctly.

 

[WillyC]

Basically, some folks don’t understand the overpayment needed to secure an UFA like Tavares… particularly when he’s being touted as the most significant UFA in years.

No, guys are on cap friendly figuring they can just improve the team on the number$ alone.

Auston and Mitch’s $11 million are not the same as JT’s $11 million.

Even if Covid never stalled the cap… these guys would still be complaining.

 

[hotpaws]

Basically, some folks don’t understand the overpayment needed to secure an UFA like Tavares… particularly when he’s being touted as the most significant UFA in years.

No, guys are on cap friendly figuring they can just improve the team on the number$ alone.

Auston and Mitch’s $11 million are not the same as JT’s $11 million.

Even if Covid never stalled the cap… these guys would still be complaining.

If the team improved nobody would have a problem

Scoring’s up so being roughly a ppg doesn’t mean as much as it did especially when your consistently 3/4 on your team in pts .

JT is pretty much just a net front presence and relying on your teammates to generate offensive opportunities for you doesn’t make you an elite player , hell Hyman’s outscoring Johnny and on pace for 90plus pts the last time I checked but I don’t hear any body saying he’s worth 11m per .

 

[WillyC]

If the team improved nobody would have a problem

Scoring’s up so being roughly a ppg doesn’t mean as much as it did especially when your consistently 3/4 on your team in pts .

JT is pretty much just a net front presence and relying on your teammates to generate offensive opportunities for you doesn’t make you an elite player , hell Hyman’s outscoring Johnny and on pace for 90plus pts the last time I checked I don’t hear any body saying he’s worth 11m per .

I don’t really care how many people like you “have a problem”…. I’m loving the team and enjoy every minute of JT being Captain here in Toronto.

Would have loved Hyman staying here… however, Bunting filled that void nicely… now that ROR is here, I’m hoping they find a way to sign him.

You must be fuming about JT’s 60 points and strong play this season.

 

[hotpaws]

I don’t really care how many people like you “have a problem”…. I’m loving the team and enjoy every minute of JT being Captain here in Toronto.

Would have loved Hyman staying here… however, Bunting filled that void nicely… now that ROR is here, I’m hoping they find a way to sign him.

You must be fuming about JT’s 60 points and strong play this season.

JT was brought in to help the team get to the next level , he hasn’t helped so far in that task .

But if your happy about the team spinning it wheels as long as he gets his regardless of how many 1st rd exits we have then who am I to spoil your fun .

 

[WillyC]

JT was brought in to help the team get to the next level , he hasn’t helped so far in that task .

But if your happy about the team spinning it wheels as long as he gets his regardless of how many 1st rd exits we have then who am I to spoil your fun .

You couldn’t spoil the fun I have enjoying the Leafs no matter how hard you try putting them down.

JT has improved our 2C tremendously… armchair GMs like yourself will continue to cry and whine about players regardless of how well the team is playing.

Like I said in another thread… you’re one of these guys that thinks if you had $4 million of JT’s salary… you’d show us how to win the cup.

 

[notDatsyuk]

It takes more than 50-something games for stuff like that to even out.
Just like it didn't even out for Nylander in the opposite direction over 81 games last year. Weird how I didn't see you talking about how horrible Nylander was defensively then...
You can't attribute goaltending impacts to skaters.
It's odd that you equate not dumping on Tavares at every turn to "convolutions". Tavares' signing doesn't need justifying, and this isn't even about Tavares.
It's about knowing what factors into statistics and using them correctly.

You're the one using goaltending as an uneven impact on skaters.

Nylander spent the whole of last season with Tavares, and had bad defensive numbers.
Nylander spent the first part of this season with Tavares, and had bad defensive numbers.
Nylander spent the rest of this season with Matthews, and had good defensive numbers.
Marner spent the first part of the season with Matthews, and had good defensive numbers.
Marner spent the rest of the season with Tavares, and had bad defensive numbers.

Notice anything?

 

[Dekes For Days]

You're the one using goaltending as an uneven impact on skaters.

No, I'm looking at skater defensive metrics to evaluate the defensive performance of skaters.
You're attempting to look at a metric that combines skater defensive metrics and goaltending impact, so that you can attribute the goaltending impacts to Nylander, while ignoring that he had the exact opposite goaltending impacts last year.

Nylander spent the whole of last season with Tavares, and had bad defensive numbers.
Nylander spent the first part of this season with Tavares, and had bad defensive numbers.
Nylander spent the rest of this season with Matthews, and had good defensive numbers.
Marner spent the first part of the season with Matthews, and had good defensive numbers.
Marner spent the rest of the season with Tavares, and had bad defensive numbers.

Notice anything?

I notice that none of that is true. What actually tends to happen is that whatever line Nylander is on tends to get worse defensively.

 

[notDatsyuk]

No, I'm looking at skater defensive metrics to evaluate the defensive performance of skaters.
You're attempting to look at a metric that combines skater defensive metrics and goaltending impact, so that you can attribute the goaltending impacts to Nylander, while ignoring that he had the exact opposite goaltending impacts last year.

I notice that none of that is true.

As usual, you are either totally misunderstanding what I'm saying, or deliberately misinterpreting it.

It doesn't matter. I should know better than to try to hold an intelligent conversation with you.

 

[Dekes For Days]

As usual, you are either totally misunderstanding what I'm saying, or deliberately misinterpreting it.

There's no misunderstanding/misinterpretation.
+/- is not a measure of skater defense. It is a statistic that combines, among some other rather arbitrary factors, skater offense, skater defense, and goaltending impacts.
Goals against is also not a measure of skater defense. It is a statistic that combines skater defense and goaltending impacts.
Actual skater defensive metrics paint a very different picture than the one you tried to claim.
The fact is, the 1st line has been better offensively (4.59 > 3.56 GF/60 at 5v5), and the 2nd line has been better defensively (2.29 > 3.05 xGA/60 at 5v5).

Your description of the results we have gotten from different player combinations was also wrong. Not only were they wrong because you were using the wrong statistic, but even by the statistic you were using, the Tavares-Marner combo have had an elite goals against this year and better than the Tavares-Nylander combo. Also for the record, Matthews-Nylander did have a chunk of time last year 5v5 and it was horrible in goals against.

 

[Havoc]

I'm stumped why Keefe wants an elite no.1 C to be wing on this line. I thought he'd get this line out of his system by now and we'd be 3C deep.

We can sweep a series just off the faceoff wins between Tavares and O'Reilly both at C

 

[Twowingcantfly]

I'm stumped why Keefe wants an elite no.1 C to be wing on this line. I thought he'd get this line out of his system by now and we'd be 3C deep.

We can sweep a series just off the faceoff wins between Tavares and O'Reilly both at C

O'Reilly' defensive instincts will shutdown opponents before they become a treat in our zone. We have witnessed JT defensive gaffes too often the past 4 years. JT playing wing can concentrate on shutting down his side of the ice on the back check, while dominating the offensive zone as he always does.

 

[Stephen]

I'm stumped why Keefe wants an elite no.1 C to be wing on this line. I thought he'd get this line out of his system by now and we'd be 3C deep.

We can sweep a series just off the faceoff wins between Tavares and O'Reilly both at C

I want to see them try different things with the centers. If stacking the lines needs to happen, stack the lines. But a Matthews, Tavares, O'Reilly trio soaking up nearly 60 minutes of play time with Acciari and Kampf also available is a very special center combo.