Do You Think Ovechkin's Legacy Will Improve over Time

[Bear of Bad News]

Top three per team was how I was thinking about - my gut tells me that I'd have him currently about 60th to 70th in the league, but I also know (recalling many recent past conversations here) is that it's easy to trust one's gut until you put in the labor of trying to construct a full list.

 

[Gerulaitis]

It's not the best phrasing by me, but the intent there was to be totally non-commital on the subject because I have no idea where he slots into the game today haha

That said, he hasn't been a top 3 Washington Capital this year in terms of shift to shift impact...there's 32 teams...ehhhh...but still, he's better than every Blackhawk, so there's no way to really shorthand this...

Ovechkin is #1 in the league in Goals / 60 minutes.
He's almost 40 years old and keeps doing it

 

[Michael Farkas]

Ovechkin is #1 in the league in Goals / 60 minutes.
He's almost 40 years old and keeps doing it

Oh I know, I can read the newspaper too haha

 

[Wee Baby Seamus]

Interesting thought exercise on what is the conceivable lowest "rank" one could be for a 40+ goal scorer (I suppose era adjusted to account for factors like there being 22 forty goal scorers in a 21 team league in 1981-82)? Perhaps confined to some degree of realistic plausibility...

Go back to 08-09, rank every player in the league, find Brad Boyes, and there’s your answer

 

[Matsun]

His goal scoring longevity is obviously the best ever, but his seasons from age 35+ are some of the best ever which I don't think people have caught up on. I feel like his recent seasons get bunched together with his dominant goal scoring seasons with low point totals in his early 30s that are kind of weak for a superstar at that age. So OV basically has an incredible, historical level peak from age 20-24 and now he has one of the best runs ever from age 35-39+. In the years between he lead the league in goals 7 times so even if those seasons are disappointing when compared to some other greats he still added a lot of value.

 

[Hockey Outsider]

Interesting thought exercise on what is the conceivable lowest "rank" one could be for a 40+ goal scorer (I suppose era adjusted to account for factors like there being 22 forty goal scorers in a 21 team league in 1981-82)? Perhaps confined to some degree of realistic plausibility...

The lowest that a 40 goal scorer has ever ranked in the overall scoring race was 86th place - Bill Delago in 1984. He was a solid penalty killer, but I wouldn't say he was particularly notable defensively. I'm not sure where he'd rank after taking into account goalies and defensemen - ballpark 120th to 140th?

 

[wetcoast]

3rd in goals, 2nd in goals/game and 18th in point/game

Do you still stand by this?

I'll go back and look that's probably a typo as I meant top 10, he has been a top 100 player for a decade now.

Yes it was a typo as I was responding to someone saying he would be top 10 after scoring 895 and the goal is historical to be sure but his ranking is already etched in stone.

People who had him in the top 10 already had him there,

Those that didn't doesn't change anything, in terms of all time ranking.

 

[Dingo]

Seem revisionist a bit, the year after they won the cup Ovechkin had "only" 607 goals and just turned 33... how many people had the idea of the goal record being in play back then ?

And the Capitals were the cup champ, had a 104 pts season, third in the east, we can bet a lot of money that winning a back to back cup were all they thought about.

Ovechkin scoring 215 goals in his next 344 games has a 33-38 years old winning 2 others Rocket, who saw that coming ? The league scoring had just went up, without it it would have been just impossible.

The 5 season after the cup he scored at a 0.625 goals per games, that a 51+ goals by 82 paces, thats even higher than young Ovechkin pre-cup win career pace of 0.605 gpg.....

In 2014 at least that was the reaction:

Will Ovechkin catch Gretzky in career goals?

Will Ovechkin catch Gretzky in career goals?

forums.hfboards.com

Feel like the idea of him catching up Gretzky must be more recent than the 2018-2019 season, even more so the idea of any sacrifice the team would be making to help make it happen, that must started only when the Caps started to miss the playoff in the latest (2022-2023 ?).

that thread got CLOSED for being too ridiculous?!?!

From there, I can reasonably understand the contempt as it became more and more obvious that he would. The desire to deride the second best goalscorer of the season as a 'top 100' player.. maybe.... if we are being nice.

Pride is a powerful, powerful flaw.

 

[Bear of Bad News]

that thread got CLOSED for being too ridiculous?!?!

If it helps, it was closed because of who started it.

 

[WarriorofTime]

12.3 % shooting percentage on 4,541 SOG 2005-06 through 2016-17 (age 20-31)

14.6 % shooting percentage on 2,306 SOG 2017-17 through 2024-25 (age 32-39)

Certainly speaks to the importance of era. Ovechkin definitely has a lot more goals in that grouping with a more goal-scoring friendly era and less goals in that second grouping in a less goal-scoring friendly era.

If the latter shooting % was the case for the first set with the same SOG, we're adding an additional 108 goals (from 553 to 663)

If the former shooting % was the case for the second set with the same SOG, we're subtracting 53 goals (from 337 to 284)

 

[ImporterExporter]

I do wonder what the "adjusted" numbers look like as it pertains to comparing Gretzky's 894, most of which came in the most wide open scoring era in league history, to Ovi's 895 (and counting).

It took Wayne 5088 shots on goal vs 6847 (most all time) for Ovechkin, though again, there is a wide gap in scoring averages, penalties called, larger goaltending equipment, etc, etc.

Most highlight the DPE, mid 90's, through the lockout in 04-05, for barren scoring averages and a slower/tighter checking game overall, but there were some lean years for GPG not long after hockey resumed in 05-06, with significantly reduced PPO relative to decades previous.

I'm completely on board Ovechkin being the greatest goal scorer ever, based on both peak and frankly, ridiculous longevity, especially considering the more robust and physical nature of his game. That longevity and durability is, IMHO, the 2nd greatest bullet point for 8's resume.

Ovechkin's career timeframe:

Gretzky's career timeframe:

 

[authentic]

The lowest that a 40 goal scorer has ever ranked in the overall scoring race was 86th place - Bill Delago in

I do wonder what the "adjusted" numbers look like as it pertains to comparing Gretzky's 894, most of which came in the most wide open scoring era in league history, to Ovi's 895 (and counting).

It took Wayne 5088 shots on goal vs 6847 (most all time) for Ovechkin, though again, there is a wide gap in scoring averages, penalties called, larger goaltending equipment, etc, etc.

Most highlight the DPE, mid 90's, through the lockout in 04-05, for barren scoring averages and a slower/tighter checking game overall, but there were some lean years for GPG not long after hockey resumed in 05-06, with significantly reduced PPO relative to decades previous.

I'm completely on board Ovechkin being the greatest goal scorer ever, based on both peak and frankly, ridiculous longevity, especially considering the more robust and physical nature of his game. That longevity and durability is, IMHO, the 2nd greatest bullet point for 8's resume.

Ovechkin's career timeframe:

View attachment 1007880


Gretzky's career timeframe:

View attachment 1007882


View attachment 1007890

Hard to believe Gretzky took more shots than Brett Hull.

 

[ImporterExporter]

I honestly think it's amazing how far ahead of everyone Ovechkin is in shot volume.

The nearest F (Jagr) is 1210 shots behind Ovi, despite playing in 247 MORE games.

When you factor in shots missed, it's absolute madness! 2007-08 was the first year they started officially recording shots missed.

Total Shots:

1. Ovechkin - 8734
2. Burns - 5654

 

[MadLuke]

I do wonder what the "adjusted" numbers look like as it pertains to comparing Gretzky's 894, most of which came in the most wide open scoring era in league history, to Ovi's 895 (and counting).

After Ovechkin first 1426 games he faced in average teams that accorded 2.88 goals against per games, exactly like Gordie Howe, a bit higher than Teemu Selanne.

Gretzky was at 3.53, "adjusting" (very roughly, that just using faced team defense, not scoring distribution, just a fancier than per season, using each team you faced every game individually)

full_name	total_games	total_points	adjPts	pgp	total_goals	adjGoals	gpg	ROUND(avgdefense,2)	player_rank
Alex Ovechkin	1426	1550	1982.5	1.39	853	1092.9	0.77	2.88	9
Gordie Howe	1767	1850	2402.4	1.36	801	1045.0	0.59	2.88	3
Jaromir Jagr	1733	1921	2452.9	1.42	766	976.2	0.56	2.9	2
Wayne Gretzky	1487	2857	2912.2	1.96	894	895.9	0.6	3.53	1
Teemu Selanne	1451	1457	1890.6	1.3	684	884.6	0.61	2.81	11
Brett Hull	1269	1391	1647.1	1.3	741	864.2	0.68	3.11	25
Jarome Iginla	1554	1300	1774.4	1.14	625	854.6	0.55	2.7	16
Phil Esposito	1282	1590	1844.6	1.44	717	830.3	0.65	3.2	14
Brendan Shanahan	1524	1354	1651.4	1.08	656	801.6	0.53	3.05	24
Luc Robitaille	1431	1394	1624.4	1.14	668	777.4	0.54	3.11	28

 

[ImporterExporter]

After Ovechkin first 1426 games he faced in average teams that accorded 2.88 goals against per games, exactly like Gordie Howe, a bit higher than Teeme Selanne.

Gretzky was at 3.53, "adjusting" (very roughly, that just using faced team defense, not scoring distribution, just a fancier than per season, using each team you faced every game individually)

full_name	total_games	total_points	adjPts	pgp	total_goals	adjGoals	gpg	ROUND(avgdefense,2)	player_rank
Alex Ovechkin	1426	1550	1982.5	1.39	853	1092.9	0.77	2.88	9
Gordie Howe	1767	1850	2402.4	1.36	801	1045.0	0.59	2.88	3
Jaromir Jagr	1733	1921	2452.9	1.42	766	976.2	0.56	2.9	2
Wayne Gretzky	1487	2857	2912.2	1.96	894	895.9	0.6	3.53	1
Teemu Selanne	1451	1457	1890.6	1.3	684	884.6	0.61	2.81	11
Brett Hull	1269	1391	1647.1	1.3	741	864.2	0.68	3.11	25
Jarome Iginla	1554	1300	1774.4	1.14	625	854.6	0.55	2.7	16
Phil Esposito	1282	1590	1844.6	1.44	717	830.3	0.65	3.2	14
Brendan Shanahan	1524	1354	1651.4	1.08	656	801.6	0.53	3.05	24
Luc Robitaille	1431	1394	1624.4	1.14	668	777.4	0.54	3.11	28

Thanks! It doesn't surprise me to see Ovechkin on top here as well. The more I watch games from the 80's and early 90's, it's often comical how wide open the league was, especially for the superstars like Wayne, Mario, Jagr, etc.

 

[The Panther]

I honestly think it's amazing how far ahead of everyone Ovechkin is in shot volume.

Yes, and this needs to be emphasized more.

These are Ovechkin's NHL finishes in shots on goal:
1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 2, 3, 5, 7

I mean, that's unbelievable. And that's not factoring in missed games (it's not "shots per game"). It it was, he'd probably be #1 for every single season of his career, or at worst 2 or 3 just once or twice.

That's really significant, because in the post-Lock Out (or maybe post-1990s') NHL, it's DAMN HARD TO GET SHOTS ON NET.

Basically, watching an NHL game nowadays is like this: "Oh, a chance...! Blocked. Another chance...! Blocked. Nice pass and now a one-timer....! Blocked. Shot from the point...! Hit a leg. Rebound...! Blocked."

Probably any study of Ovechkin's success needs to begin with how he is able to get so many shots through and onto the goal.

 

[Michael Farkas]

Probably any study of Ovechkin's success needs to begin with how he is able to get so many shots through and onto the goal.

His career advantage in terms of shots on net between 1st and 2nd place is basically the same ratio as it is for missed shots. He's "credited" with 3000 missed shots in his career, Brent Burns is at 1900, Jeff Carter is at 1592.

He has the four highest missed shot seasons recorded and 7 of the top 8. He also has the top 3 attempts blocked seasons in recorded history among forwards, 6 of the top 8 in that regard as well.

So while he gets a ton through, he also...ya know...doesn't too haha - he's just constantly (careful, not literally...sometimes he sleeps) pulling the trigger.

 

[The Panther]

His career advantage in terms of shots on net between 1st and 2nd place is basically the same ratio as it is for missed shots. He's "credited" with 3000 missed shots in his career, Brent Burns is at 1900, Jeff Carter is at 1592.

He has the four highest missed shot seasons recorded and 7 of the top 8. He also has the top 3 attempts blocked seasons in recorded history among forwards, 6 of the top 8 in that regard as well.

So while he gets a ton through, he also...ya know...doesn't too haha - he's just constantly (careful, not literally...sometimes he sleeps) pulling the trigger.

I mean, sure, it's always going to be so --- the more you shoot, the more you're blocked.

But in any case, he is able to get more pucks on net EVERY FRICKIN' SEASON than any other player. Does this mean he is simply shooting more? I don't know.

It makes me think that maybe hockey is simpler than we think. Shoot more, succeed more.

 

[steve141]

I mean, sure, it's always going to be so --- the more you shoot, the more you're blocked.

But in any case, he is able to get more pucks on net EVERY FRICKIN' SEASON than any other player. Does this mean he is simply shooting more? I don't know.

It makes me think that maybe hockey is simpler than we think. Shoot more, succeed more.

Even at 39 years old Ovi is in the 99 percentile of shot speed in the league. It's easier to block a loose shot than a hard shot.

 

[solidmotion]

It makes me think that maybe hockey is simpler than we think. Shoot more, succeed more.

i like this way of thinking about it. it doesn't matter so much if you do all the small things wrong if you do the one big thing right—better than anybody else ever. (comparable: erling haaland?)

 

[ChiTownPhilly]

The argument for Hull over Ovechkin is primarily based on Hull's superior point finishes.

Eliminate the duplicates and their PPG finishes look like this:

Hull: 2, 2, 2, 3, 4, 4, 7
Ovechkin: 1, 8, 9

Not fully disagreeing, but I always thought that a more compelling point in favor of Bobby Hull was Even-Strength Goals Against.

Pretty basic, really... Hockey has at its heart two objectives:
1) Help one's own team put pucks into opponent's net.
2) Inhibit opponent from putting pucks into one's own net.

Bobby Hull did a better job of attending to point #2 than Ovechkin. This specific aspect of the comparison between the two is not particularly close.

 

[WarriorofTime]

Yes, and this needs to be emphasized more.

These are Ovechkin's NHL finishes in shots on goal:
1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 2, 3, 5, 7

I mean, that's unbelievable. And that's not factoring in missed games (it's not "shots per game"). It it was, he'd probably be #1 for every single season of his career, or at worst 2 or 3 just once or twice.

That's really significant, because in the post-Lock Out (or maybe post-1990s') NHL, it's DAMN HARD TO GET SHOTS ON NET.

Basically, watching an NHL game nowadays is like this: "Oh, a chance...! Blocked. Another chance...! Blocked. Nice pass and now a one-timer....! Blocked. Shot from the point...! Hit a leg. Rebound...! Blocked."

Probably any study of Ovechkin's success needs to begin with how he is able to get so many shots through and onto the goal.

Definitely you’d expect for a guy with his shot attempt volume that his SThr% would be like low 30s because nobody has anywhere near that much volume. He shoots from everywhere on the ice and the defense knows it’s coming but still gets a great chunk of them through.

 

[filinski77]

Yes, and this needs to be emphasized more.

These are Ovechkin's NHL finishes in shots on goal:
1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 2, 3, 5, 7

I mean, that's unbelievable. And that's not factoring in missed games (it's not "shots per game"). It it was, he'd probably be #1 for every single season of his career, or at worst 2 or 3 just once or twice.

That's really significant, because in the post-Lock Out (or maybe post-1990s') NHL, it's DAMN HARD TO GET SHOTS ON NET.

Basically, watching an NHL game nowadays is like this: "Oh, a chance...! Blocked. Another chance...! Blocked. Nice pass and now a one-timer....! Blocked. Shot from the point...! Hit a leg. Rebound...! Blocked."

Probably any study of Ovechkin's success needs to begin with how he is able to get so many shots through and onto the goal.

And as always - people either forget, or ignore how far Ovi shoots from on average.

His average shot distance has to be one of the furthest amongst any elite forward. This only makes his shot generation even more impressive.

 

[MadLuke]

His average shot distance has to be one of the furthest amongst any elite forward. This only makes his shot generation even more impressive.

How/why, if he was shooting 5 time a night all close to the goaltender all alone, would he not be more impressive and scoring more..... ?

 

[filinski77]

How/why, if he was shooting 5 time a night all close to the goaltender all alone, would he not be more impressive and scoring more..... ?

Shooting from far away inherently allows more opportunities and time for shots to be blocked.

It also makes it harder to hit the net.

5,000 shots from 50% further away from the net is not the same as from closer.

Not saying that Ovechkin wouldn’t score more from up close. Simply analyzing the volume and its impact on shooting % as well.