I admit it's unlikely Matthews enjoys Ovies health but he could have a few more 60 goal seasons to help a bit. I predict he'll be 3rd in goals behind Wayne.
1. I dont think he's generational. See my post above explaining why.
But for career goals - we'll see. In my opinion:
95% (could have said 99) he tops 600 goals. Only injuries could stop him, as I think he's well on his way.
~50% chance he tops 700. Impossible to predict how he ages, as he's still young. So, 50/50.
~5-10% chance he tops 800 goals (that would essentially make him 3rd as you predict).
For career starts as a goalscorer he's great but its literally impossible to predict longevity. Just look at Ovechkin:
- first everyone thought he'd have multiple more 60 goal seasons after 2010....instead he drops off a cliff with 2 really underwhelming seasons
- then, halfway in 2013 season, everyone assumed Ovechkin was "done", but he roars back with a crazy goal streak, wins the hart, and i dont even know off hand how many more rockets and 50 goals seasons he added after.
Matthews next year is at the age Ovechkin was when he had his really crappy run in 2011 and 2012. So it's really hard to predict.