Do we have a developmental problem? A futile look.

[will1066]

Yep, this is so true. It is insane how much better Zibby is when Panarin is out of the lineup. Like, stunning, noticeable difference.

People circle around the subject. But signing Panarin has been a double-edged sword. His imprint on the team is huge.

 

[tomobson]

This is a big reason why I want strome gone at the end of the season. He’s a band aid that’s kind of preventing progress.
Zibby and Panarin are signed. We have to live with that now. Fine.
Put them together on one line and let the 2nd line be driven by LaF/Kakko/And whoever they trade for.
Give them the top 6 minutes warts and all.
And for god sakes get 1 of them on the 1 PP.
It might be a 1 step back to go 2 steps fwd type situation.
But if you have a good 1st line, and an experienced/ good 3rd/4th line it’s not like the team will be a bottom feeder.
Not with shesty and our Blue line.

quinn kind of half assed it. He stuck them with chytil ( who isn’t a playmaker/not great ice vision) but he gave them minimal minutes and cut out their legs when they made a mistake.

maybe start next season with a year more mature LaF/kakko with this type of line up.
Panarin-Zibby-Kreider
LaF-Trade-Kakko
Goodrow-Barron-Blais
Hunt-Rooney/UFA vet-Reaves
Ex Gettinger/someone who can give you an honest 4th line shift ( someone that can spell Reaves who’ll be 35)
Lindgren-Fox
Miller-Trouba
Jones-Schneider
Vet/Nemeth

Shesty
Halak/Greiss

a guy like chandler Stephenson would be great in that 2C role imo

I do think separating Mika and Panarin does more harm to the team than good. Too many games we have both lines be absolutely mediocre or below average. I think putting both Mika and Panarin together would better guarantee the rangers have at least one line playing above average hockey on a nightly basis, but for this season the rangers hands are kinda tied. Kakko needs a real center and the rangers don't have one in the top 6. Next season I really hope Strome is gone and the second line becomes Kakko's line with a center that can actually help cycle the puck.

 

[will1066]

Can we all just agree the Quinn was a bad NHL coach and while we all generally liked Gorton, there was a lot of stuff going on in the organization under his tenure that needed fixing which were never addressed and probably the real reason Dolan was pissed.

Quinn did a lot of stuff that didn't help his cause but he was also a victim of circumstances surrounding his bosses. When you look at what Gallant has done from a 30,000-foot level, it isn't all that radically different than Quinn's moves. The kids are still plateau'ed statistically. We still question the wisdom of playing Tinordi and Nemeth, putting Hunt in a top-six role, putting Kakko and Laf where they are on the lines, and keeping the first power play unit intact. What has happened is Gallant has benefited from a lot of things going right as well as lessons learned from Quinn's tenure, like the team needing a daddy figure in Reaves, Georgiev's mini-renaissance when Shesty is out, the PP clicking despite being the same players, and the whole team being a year older and wiser.

 

[Clark Kellogg]

February 8th, 2018 New York Rangers release letter to fans informing them of the rebuild.
May 18th 2019 J.D. is hired as President.
June 17th, 2019 Jacob Trouba is traded to the NY Rangers for Neal Pionk and the 20th overall 2019 pick.
July 1st, 2019 Artemi Panerin signs with the NY Rangers.
Connect the dots and it may lead you to the same conclusion that I got.
J.D. was the culprit?

 

[Leonardo87]

No. When you sign big UFA’s like Panarin and Trouba you take the developmental ice time away from young players who are drafted.

Rangers have drafted a shit load of players who are or had very good careers, but all of them were traded. Kreider is the only one left and he is on pace for a record season so let’s enjoy that instead of worrying who’s playing with Kakko or Laf and how much ice time they are getting.

 

[CommaSynapse]

Kreiderman made a solid point that a majority of the ranger rookie forwards in the past that have met their potential or overachieved when reaching the big club were “developed”, at least partially (at a young age of 18-22) at the college ranks or elsewhere.

I think that combined with the state of the world and the economics of it (ticket sales), the AHL not being a realistic option at times, the rebuild forcing the youth up to big club, and lofty expectations have forced them to play up, when maybe the best way to start off was with the Pack.

But the Rangers brass is not innocent here either. I can’t speak to what goes on behind the scenes but it’s obvious they haven’t been the best at developing young offensive talent. The results speak for themselves

Absolutely. We had a lot of players develop successfully through the college ranks. Exceptions, to be sure, but a lot of them got good college minutes before making the NHL.

Definitely an odd situation as far as COVID goes, and I'd be interested to see how the numbers pan out over the next few years for the kids who were 16-19 or so during the pandemic and how they might compare to peers before or after. Of course, plenty of other variables at play, too.

Maybe the pressure of playing in New York is harder for the young players we expect to be stars? And if that is the case, would it have been better to just rely on them and let them carry the load of the rebuild on their shoulders? Absolutely not. Maybe drafting in the top six is overated? Of the 72 players that have been drafted in the top six since 2010, only two have won a Stanley Cup I believe. Seguin and Connolly. And none were at the time the biggest stars of their teams.

The pressure is any big market is going to be tough for a young player. It might be easier in New York because we have Kreider, Panarin, Shesty, etc. absorbing some of that media frenzy. Or maybe not -- they're under the microscope from day 1 regardless.

Yes we do.

Its a combo of lack of patience, spending big money on vets which takes ice time and opportunities away from younger players and also entrusting a big chunk of the rebuild process to a moron like David Quinn.

We have arguably the worst player development in the league.

I really only focused on forward development, and top picks at that.

We really don't have this problem so much on defense or in goal.

We've found our goalies consistently. Hank, Talbot, Raanta, Georgiev, Shesterkin. The only backup in recent memory who didn't go on to a larger role was Pavelec, who was coming down from one. Geo remains to be seen, but there definitely seems to be interest there.

As for defense, we've done well with drafting and developing, or otherwise obtaining and developing, young defensemen, too. Staal, Girardi, MDZ, McDonagh, Sauer, Fox, Lindgren, Miller, Pionk, and then the promise we have right now with Jones and Nils both having some NHL time under their belts. Some would argue we had finally righted the ship for Tony DeAngelo as well.

Staal, Girardi, and McDonagh were basically a D core for about a decade, and I think Sauer would've been in that group, too, had it not been for his injuries.

I would say the only guy we traded on D before really judging his full potential was Graves, so that's a pretty solid record.

At top six, not overall

Exactly. It's developing top-6 forwards that are the only area we're really stumbling. Kreider has done well, and Miller was on his way before being traded. But we haven't been as good about finding these guys later, either. Plenty of role players who have gone on to good careers, though.

This core started younger than the last one did. All are 18-20 while those guys were 20-22. That's a huge difference.

This fanbase also needs to "develop" a little more patience. You can't kill Miller for two turnovers or be upset that Lundkvist (who I believe is going to be one of the dealt DMen) isn't a PP stud. Rebuilds used to take around five years in the pre-internet pre-what have you done for me lately? days.

But I will ask again; root cause. What is it and how do you fix the issue? Well I'm going to offer actual ideas and not just complain. Skating and lower core are essential for both Kaako and Laf. There is plenty of time, but to unlock the full potential. It's why last game Greco or out of nowhere if Berrard were to show up and play tonight (obviously that's not happening), they're more impactful because better skaters.

Laf's and Chytil could both stand to improve their passing. The best way to do that is repetitions first while not skating, and then incorporate it while they are skating.

Another video coach should be hired to break down tape or occurrences and go over them first off the ice and then on the ice.

Finally, poach someone from Tampa, LA, STL and add them to the development program here.

I agree. I definitely agree that there needs to be more patience because these players are still very young. But I do think there's something to the idea that our players are working through a bit of a different development curve than seems to be the norm, partially for the reasons that we've discussed on the first page.

With this stats dive, I wanted to look at some of the ideas of deployment and ice time, and, really, the major difference is the lack of power play time, at least as far as some of the advanced stats go. Our players are generally playing with similar line mate quality, similar deployment, and are putting up similar corsi statistics to their peers. I do believe the points will come for these players, as it's the evens strength points/60 that is significantly different. But, also, our players are not given the same leash as we are a team that only really stopped competing for about 2 years.

So I really just wanted to do a bit to dispel the myth of ice time itself being the issue. I don't think it is, and I think it's a larger team culture issue regarding competition and constant competition.

I do think the organization needs to be clear about what they want players to work on and develop, and then they need to follow through. The expectations seemed to be to have Filip Chytil take on more of an offensive role, but then it appeared Gallant was asking him to play more physically. Certainly he can do both, but we don't want to create an identity crisis in a young player.

 

[Kovalev27]

Teams that draft first and second overall don’t have a Kreider Zibanejad Panarin and until this year Buchnevich in their top 6 taking up the top mins

kakko and Lafreniere should be normally playing 20 mins a night all situations and special teams and LOSING while scoring and continuing to develop offensively. Lot of confidence comes from the powerplay.

Learning to defend and win comes later.

before these kids it was JT Miller not getting top 6 mins.

now lias Andersson. He’s a terrible player and you could see it at development camp among other nhl prospects. He was a terrible pick in what is looking like a bad draft.

I think lafreniere is too good not to figure it out. But he’s literally got two all star players ahead of him on left wing signed long term.

kakko he’s become an elite defensive player. But he looks lost offensively to me most nights. His skating isn’t very good. And he continues to hesitate when he does get in close. He’s going to have to work on it. But I think he’ll be a guy you need to win. Reminds me of Rick Nash in a lot of ways.

 

[HFsNumber1Heel]

Absolutely. We had a lot of players develop successfully through the college ranks. Exceptions, to be sure, but a lot of them got good college minutes before making the NHL.

Definitely an odd situation as far as COVID goes, and I'd be interested to see how the numbers pan out over the next few years for the kids who were 16-19 or so during the pandemic and how they might compare to peers before or after. Of course, plenty of other variables at play, too.



The pressure is any big market is going to be tough for a young player. It might be easier in New York because we have Kreider, Panarin, Shesty, etc. absorbing some of that media frenzy. Or maybe not -- they're under the microscope from day 1 regardless.



I really only focused on forward development, and top picks at that.

We really don't have this problem so much on defense or in goal.

We've found our goalies consistently. Hank, Talbot, Raanta, Georgiev, Shesterkin. The only backup in recent memory who didn't go on to a larger role was Pavelec, who was coming down from one. Geo remains to be seen, but there definitely seems to be interest there.

As for defense, we've done well with drafting and developing, or otherwise obtaining and developing, young defensemen, too. Staal, Girardi, MDZ, McDonagh, Sauer, Fox, Lindgren, Miller, Pionk, and then the promise we have right now with Jones and Nils both having some NHL time under their belts. Some would argue we had finally righted the ship for Tony DeAngelo as well.

Staal, Girardi, and McDonagh were basically a D core for about a decade, and I think Sauer would've been in that group, too, had it not been for his injuries.

I would say the only guy we traded on D before really judging his full potential was Graves, so that's a pretty solid record.




Exactly. It's developing top-6 forwards that are the only area we're really stumbling. Kreider has done well, and Miller was on his way before being traded. But we haven't been as good about finding these guys later, either. Plenty of role players who have gone on to good careers, though.



I agree. I definitely agree that there needs to be more patience because these players are still very young. But I do think there's something to the idea that our players are working through a bit of a different development curve than seems to be the norm, partially for the reasons that we've discussed on the first page.

With this stats dive, I wanted to look at some of the ideas of deployment and ice time, and, really, the major difference is the lack of power play time, at least as far as some of the advanced stats go. Our players are generally playing with similar line mate quality, similar deployment, and are putting up similar corsi statistics to their peers. I do believe the points will come for these players, as it's the evens strength points/60 that is significantly different. But, also, our players are not given the same leash as we are a team that only really stopped competing for about 2 years.

So I really just wanted to do a bit to dispel the myth of ice time itself being the issue. I don't think it is, and I think it's a larger team culture issue regarding competition and constant competition.

I do think the organization needs to be clear about what they want players to work on and develop, and then they need to follow through. The expectations seemed to be to have Filip Chytil take on more of an offensive role, but then it appeared Gallant was asking him to play more physically. Certainly he can do both, but we don't want to create an identity crisis in a young player.

Chytil's problem is he's not assertive enough. Very laid back nice person off the ice. He doesn't have a killer instinct. He's not one of those guys that comes to the rink and wants to rip someone's head off or bulldoze a DMan.

To be successful in this league as more than a third liner he's going to need to become a cycle monster, and he also needs to become a better passer.

 

[effen]

This is just an offshoot of Tampa Bay running inferno hot with mid round picks, everyone assuming their organization had the secret sauce and all the smart people (???) and feeling butthurt the NYR with all their resources didn't get all the geniuses.

Y'all need to take a stats class.

We're gonna need 5 to 7 years to see that proof of concept doesn't work with building the kids from defense out, but it didn't particularly hurt Pavel Datsyuk or Henrik Zetterberg. Just because garbo teams send their kids out to the slaughter to have something to sell tickets doesn't mean that it's the only way to do it.

 

[SA16]

It's not a developmental issue. It's on the players. They've had plenty of chances in the top six. Not getting top PP time is no excuse for being invisible at 5v5. Kakko got plenty of top PP time recently anyway. Did nothing with it. At some point you can't blame the organization for every issue. First it's they weren't on the top PP. Then it's they're not in the right spot on the PP. I'm sorry but if they need to be in the absolute perfect role to produce then maybe they're just not that good (yet).

 

[CommaSynapse]

This is just an offshoot of Tampa Bay running inferno hot with mid round picks, everyone assuming their organization had the secret sauce and all the smart people (???) and feeling butthurt the NYR with all their resources didn't get all the geniuses.

Y'all need to take a stats class.

We're gonna need 5 to 7 years to see that proof of concept doesn't work with building the kids from defense out, but it didn't particularly hurt Pavel Datsyuk or Henrik Zetterberg. Just because garbo teams send their kids out to the slaughter to have something to sell tickets doesn't mean that it's the only way to do it.

My point with this look at stats is that our kids are getting less PP time. But I wanted to take PP time out of the equation and try to level the playing field.

Our prospects are producing less at even strength with comparable line mates, time, and competition based on other statistics.

I'm saying that the hypothesis that we have a developmental problem is incorrect, insofar as deployment, competition, and line mates go.

From what I can gather here, we are just doing the overall process of developing our players a bit differently from the way other teams have traditionally done it, and part of that is our unique position of becoming competitive very quickly following the notice of a rebuild.

Ultimately, as you said, we'll need a few more years of stats to really see how this works out, so I think we are in agreement.

As I mentioned throughout the thread, I'm not a stats expert. I was doing this for fun and to learn more about using Tableau for work. If there is something that you're seeing that is obviously incorrect or presented incorrectly, please do point it out so that I can learn from it.

 

[CommaSynapse]

It's not a developmental issue. It's on the players. They've had plenty of chances in the top six. Not getting top PP time is no excuse for being invisible at 5v5. Kakko got plenty of top PP time recently anyway. Did nothing with it. At some point you can't blame the organization for every issue. First it's they weren't on the top PP. Then it's they're not in the right spot on the PP. I'm sorry but if they need to be in the absolute perfect role to produce then maybe they're just not that good (yet).

That's what I'm saying. When you take PP time out of the equation, they are still producing less at even strength even with comparable line mates. We're actually in agreement here, and my argument is that PP time and overall deployment has little to do with the issues (or lack of perceived development) our prospects are facing.

 

[effen]

That's what I'm saying. When you take PP time out of the equation, they are still producing less at even strength even with comparable line mates. We're actually in agreement here, and my argument is that PP time and overall deployment has little to do with the issues (or lack of perceived development) our prospects are facing.

I wasn't being acidic to you personally, you seem pretty reasonable. It's the displeasure on the board of prospects counting stats and tying those into things into a nebulous idea of 'confidence' when a lack of confidence isn't what made Kakko or Laf not skate and process the game, it's because they weren't ready for NHL speed and certainly not ready for NHL strength. It's not a lack of confidence for Chytil, it's that he has some pretty bad tunnel vision and suspect game sense (and isn't a center).

The kids are underperforming as 18/19/21 year olds because they're not as mature as the 24/27/30 year old guys they're getting matched against. Posters are taking their personal anxieties about the crappy hockeydb pages they have and projecting them onto guys they seem on TV.

 

[mas0764]

People circle around the subject. But signing Panarin has been a double-edged sword. His imprint on the team is huge.

They treated his signing wrong. He should have been a bridge and veteran for the kids to lean on. Instead they actually want to make a window out of his prime.

 

[Rangers in 7]

Teams that draft first and second overall don’t have a Kreider Zibanejad Panarin and until this year Buchnevich in their top 6 taking up the top mins

kakko and Lafreniere should be normally playing 20 mins a night all situations and special teams and LOSING while scoring and continuing to develop offensively. Lot of confidence comes from the powerplay.

Learning to defend and win comes later.

before these kids it was JT Miller not getting top 6 mins.

now lias Andersson. He’s a terrible player and you could see it at development camp among other nhl prospects. He was a terrible pick in what is looking like a bad draft.

I think lafreniere is too good not to figure it out. But he’s literally got two all star players ahead of him on left wing signed long term.

kakko he’s become an elite defensive player. But he looks lost offensively to me most nights. His skating isn’t very good. And he continues to hesitate when he does get in close. He’s going to have to work on it. But I think he’ll be a guy you need to win. Reminds me of Rick Nash in a lot of ways.

Excellent points on both kakko and laf

If both these players were getting more opportunities on bad teams I guarantee they’d have more points

 

[Crease]

They treated his signing wrong. He should have been a bridge and veteran for the kids to lean on. Instead they actually want to make a window out of his prime.

I would argue management exited the rebuild pretty close to the right time. They are in first place in their division after missing the playoffs the last few seasons, in no small part thanks to the new guard on defense and in net. All that’s missing right now is the offensive contribution from their entry level forwards. I don’t think anyone expected Chytil, Kravtsov, Kakko and Laf to take this long. I really hope the organization is trying to identify and fix the source of that problem.

 

[mas0764]

I would argue management exited the rebuild pretty close to the right time. They are in first place in their division after missing the playoffs the last few seasons, in no small part thanks to the new guard on defense and in net. All that’s missing right now is the offensive contribution from their entry level forwards. I don’t think anyone expected Chytil, Kravtsov, Kakko and Laf to take this long. I really hope the organization is trying to identify and fix the source of that problem.

I would argue it’s blatantly obvious they exited without enough young kid prospects with high level upside at forward. After missing on Lias and running off Kravtsov and with Chytil stagnant, they basically have 2, it’s not enough.

 

[TheDirtyH]

Edge has said several times that the Rangers haven't been disappointed in or discouraged by Lafreniere and Kakko's NHL careers to this point. That's really the only interesting discussion point because it more or less refutes both sides of this recurrent argument on these boards.

 

[smoneil]

The rangers didn’t really commit to a rebuild. They kept trying to win while rotating our old players for new.
I heard a quote from the basketball coach John Thompson who once said something to the effect of, ‘developing is losing’. Meaning you’ve got to really commit to playing inexperienced players, giving them the experience, and losing a lot in the process. We don’t do that.
My hope - and I think it stands to reason - is that player development in the rangers case is slower but not totally hopeless.

I don't think it has to be one or the other. Maintaining a winning culture is a good thing. The issue is that they tried to rush the kids into the NHL lineup. Chytil, Lias, Kakko, Laf--ALL of them should have had at least a full season in Hartford after being drafted (I know that wasn't a possibility with Laf, but he should have been in Hartford to start this season at the very least). Let the kids develop and win in Hartford, playing top line minutes in all situations. Give them a cup of coffee with the NHL team here and there so they can get a sense of what works in the show vs what only works in the minors. Only bring them up full time when they force the issue and are ready to be difference makers.

Re: the bold--I hope so too, but I'm nervous about it (minutes are crucial to development).

 

[will1066]

Edge has said several times that the Rangers haven't been disappointed in or discouraged by Lafreniere and Kakko's NHL careers to this point. That's really the only interesting discussion point because it more or less refutes both sides of this recurrent argument on these boards.

They're probably playing the long game with them. It's at least another couple of years to the start of their prime years and that's when it's going to be more crucial for them than now.

 

[egelband]

I don't think it has to be one or the other. Maintaining a winning culture is a good thing. The issue is that they tried to rush the kids into the NHL lineup. Chytil, Lias, Kakko, Laf--ALL of them should have had at least a full season in Hartford after being drafted (I know that wasn't a possibility with Laf, but he should have been in Hartford to start this season at the very least). Let the kids develop and win in Hartford, playing top line minutes in all situations. Give them a cup of coffee with the NHL team here and there so they can get a sense of what works in the show vs what only works in the minors. Only bring them up full time when they force the issue and are ready to be difference makers.

Re: the bold--I hope so too, but I'm nervous about it (minutes are crucial to development).

Yeah. I don’t think it has to be one or the other, either. I think the midway approach is slower for development but probably better for instilling a winning approach and keeping morale high. These guys will learn how to handle a supporting role before getting to be stars. I’ll be concerned if Kakko or Lafreniere aren’t producing when they’re 22-23.

 

[Boris Zubov]

a guy like chandler Stephenson would be great in that 2C role imo

Stephenson would be a fantastic addition, but there is no chance Vegas moves him with the season he's having. His salary is 2.75 for the next 2 years which makes him invaluable to Vegas with their cap situation.

They treated his signing wrong. He should have been a bridge and veteran for the kids to lean on. Instead they actually want to make a window out of his prime.

That's unrealistic & short sighted. No team signs an $11M forward to a 7 year deal in order to not be competitive.

 

[jay from jersey]

Stephenson would be a fantastic addition, but there is no chance Vegas moves him with the season he's having. His salary is 2.75 for the next 2 years which makes him invaluable to Vegas with their cap situation.



That's unrealistic & short sighted. No team signs an $11M forward to a 7 year deal in order to not be competitive.

yea I def think they want to keep him.
But it’s possible they dangle him for other needs.
I don’t see Eichel/Karlsson getting their minutes cut.
And I don’t think Stephenson is going to be happy drooping down to 3rd line min/reduced role, reduced offense, etc

 

[Boris Zubov]

yea I def think they want to keep him.
But it’s possible they dangle him for other needs.
I don’t see Eichel/Karlsson getting their minutes cut

I just don't see it. With the way Stephenson has broken out, playing without both Pacioretty & Stone most of the season, Karlsson is more likely to be moved at this point. He's way more expensive for a lot less production. I like Karlsson a lot, he does so many things well, plays a 200 foot game, kills penalties, wins faceoffs, etc... but he's extremely enigmatic offensively & has never produced away from Smith & Marchessault. When Smith is moved at the deadline or isn't resigned after the season, I think it will be interesting what Vegas does there & how Karlsson adjusts if Vegas keeps him.

 

[SA16]

Yes, Vegas who is currently first in their division is going to trade the guy who has been their 1C scoring almost a point a game for 2.75M. Makes total sense!