CommaSynapse
Registered User
- Nov 2, 2013
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In all the years I've been here, I'm pretty sure this is maybe the second thread I've ever made. Slow days at work this week, and I have some burning questions.
In a lot of threads, either here on HFNYR, on Twitter, or on the main boards, I've seen a lot of mentions of the Rangers appearing to have a developmental issue with our First Round forward prospects over the last 4 years. We draft supposedly high-value players, and they have thus far struggled to pan out. To my recollection, we haven’t really had a forward step in to the NHL and immediately contribute at a significant level since Derek Stepan. So what's going on?
I wanted to look at statistics to try to notice any obvious issues. We’ll jump to the stats in a minute, but I’ll put out the main hypotheses that I wanted to consider based on these conversations.
That said, with a roster including Panarin, Kreider, Zibanejad, the pleasant surprise that ended up being Ryan Strome, and an at-the-time emerging Pavel Buchnevich, we did not have the “luxury” of, say, Ottawa, where Tim Stutzle entered the lineup into top-6 minutes, playing 15:44 per night last year and 17:44 thus far this year with generally-offensive deployment. In the two years, he has had 242 power play minutes.
In his 82-game career, Stutzle has accumulated 16 of his 44 points on the power play. Take those away, and you have numbers more in line with Kakko and Lafreniere who are getting inconsistent PP minutes at best.
We’ll compare Laf to the other FRFs from the 2020 draft that have successfully made their teams. We’ll also add the second year stats for Andersson, Chytil and Kakko (also same age) for an additional look at NYR deployment for first round forwards entering their second year.
I have divided PP time by number of games so that we can get a bit of a level playing field. I also wanted to consider P/60. I left out Chytil’s points, as it was across a much larger sample size.
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Ice time is the most obvious difference here, and we might be able to chalk that up to the differences in power play time.
If it was just one or two of our players, you could argue being a matter of individual development and not being ready, but across four players, two of whom were expected to very much be NHL-ready, and Lias supposedly being one of the more NHL-ready in his class, it makes me wonder.
The deployment, aside from Zegras and Lundell, is generally fairly even across the board. I expected to see less favorable starts for our players, but, aside from Lias, that was not the case.
So I wanted to try a different approach and look at common line mates.
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Aside from Raymond and Kakko, none of the other players are getting significant time with their team's best players. Still, these forwards with their most consistent line mates have generally performed well, with Zegras being the most significant (positive) outlier.
Finally, I wanted to try to find a quality of competition and quality of teammates statistic to try to get a more objective measure.
Based on the data, Lafreniere is generally facing the easiest competition of the group, but he also has had the lowest quality of teammates. While this doesn't look like a significant variance, the TOI%QOC range is generally, I believe, about 24-31%). McKegg's number, for example was 27%.
So what do I take from this?
In a lot of threads, either here on HFNYR, on Twitter, or on the main boards, I've seen a lot of mentions of the Rangers appearing to have a developmental issue with our First Round forward prospects over the last 4 years. We draft supposedly high-value players, and they have thus far struggled to pan out. To my recollection, we haven’t really had a forward step in to the NHL and immediately contribute at a significant level since Derek Stepan. So what's going on?
I wanted to look at statistics to try to notice any obvious issues. We’ll jump to the stats in a minute, but I’ll put out the main hypotheses that I wanted to consider based on these conversations.
- The Rangers are ruining their players. Or, in less reactionary terms, they are deploying their first round forwards incorrectly.
That said, with a roster including Panarin, Kreider, Zibanejad, the pleasant surprise that ended up being Ryan Strome, and an at-the-time emerging Pavel Buchnevich, we did not have the “luxury” of, say, Ottawa, where Tim Stutzle entered the lineup into top-6 minutes, playing 15:44 per night last year and 17:44 thus far this year with generally-offensive deployment. In the two years, he has had 242 power play minutes.
In his 82-game career, Stutzle has accumulated 16 of his 44 points on the power play. Take those away, and you have numbers more in line with Kakko and Lafreniere who are getting inconsistent PP minutes at best.
We’ll compare Laf to the other FRFs from the 2020 draft that have successfully made their teams. We’ll also add the second year stats for Andersson, Chytil and Kakko (also same age) for an additional look at NYR deployment for first round forwards entering their second year.
I have divided PP time by number of games so that we can get a bit of a level playing field. I also wanted to consider P/60. I left out Chytil’s points, as it was across a much larger sample size.
Name | GP | Team | EV Time | PP Time (divided based on GP) | Oz% starts | Points -PP | Even Strength P/60 |
Alexis Lafreniere | 37 | NYR | 13:29 | 54 (1.45) | 56 | 11 | 1.5 |
Anton Lundell | 32 | FLA | 16:43 | 17.2 (0.53) | 41.7 | 18 | 2.5 |
Dawson Mercer | 37 | NJD | 16:20 | 79.8 (2.15) | 60.8 | 17 | 2.0 |
Tim Stutzle | 29 | OTT | 17:44 | 89.8 (3.1) | 58 | 8 | 1.1 |
Lucas Raymond | 38 | DET | 17:52 | 100 (2.63) | 55.1 | 24 | 2.5 |
Trevor Zegras | 33 | ANA | 17:13 | 82 (2.48) | 77.4 | 20 | 2.5 |
Chytil (2nd yr) | 75 | NYR | 13:47 | 109.9 (1.46) | 55.4 | N/A | 1.0 |
Lias Andersson (2nd yr) | 42 | NYR | 10:43 | 2.3 (0.05) | 43.4 | 6 | 0.7 |
Kakko (2nd yr) | 48 | NYR | 14:21 | 65 (1.35) | 62.3 | 14 | 1.3 |
Ice time is the most obvious difference here, and we might be able to chalk that up to the differences in power play time.
If it was just one or two of our players, you could argue being a matter of individual development and not being ready, but across four players, two of whom were expected to very much be NHL-ready, and Lias supposedly being one of the more NHL-ready in his class, it makes me wonder.
The deployment, aside from Zegras and Lundell, is generally fairly even across the board. I expected to see less favorable starts for our players, but, aside from Lias, that was not the case.
So I wanted to try a different approach and look at common line mates.
Name | Most common line mates at EV | Percentage of EV time with Linemates | CF% |
Alexis Lafreniere | Julien Gauthier - Filip Chytil | 28.4 | 50 |
Anton Lundell | Sam Reinhart - Carter Verhaeghe | 13.1 | 48.2 |
Dawson Mercer | Jesper Bratt - Andreas Johnsson | 31.3% | 55.3 |
Tim Stutzle | Nick Paul - Connor Brown | 29.1 | 51.5 |
Lucas Raymond | Tyler Bertuzzi - Dylan Larkin | 51.7 | 49.9 |
Trevor Zegras | Rickard Rakell - Sonny Milano | 35.1 | 57.7 |
Chytil (2nd yr) | Kreider - Hayes | 9.32 | Not Available |
Andersson (2nd yr) | Nieves - Strome | 9.16 | Not Available |
Kakko (2nd yr) | Artemi Panarın - Ryan Strome | 22.0 | 53.2 |
Aside from Raymond and Kakko, none of the other players are getting significant time with their team's best players. Still, these forwards with their most consistent line mates have generally performed well, with Zegras being the most significant (positive) outlier.
Finally, I wanted to try to find a quality of competition and quality of teammates statistic to try to get a more objective measure.
Based on the data, Lafreniere is generally facing the easiest competition of the group, but he also has had the lowest quality of teammates. While this doesn't look like a significant variance, the TOI%QOC range is generally, I believe, about 24-31%). McKegg's number, for example was 27%.
So what do I take from this?
- Our last four first round forwards have tended to get less time on average, anywhere from 3-4 minutes less than other top prospects. However, PP time was also less than average, and that can add up to the difference.
- Lundell is especially impressive.
- Our first round forwards have had roughly similar oz% starts to the average, though Lundell and Zegras are outliers.