I can't really give a yes/no answer to the question. My brain doesn't work that way. Instead, I'll say I think we have about a 1 in 3 chance.
The way I see it, there's 6 teams in the East that have legitimate Stanley Cup dreams (Florida, Boston, Toronto, Tampa Bay, Carolina, Rangers). I figure one of them will stumble for some reason (e.g., goaltending, injuries, coach loses the team, age) and end up a bubble team. That leaves 3 spots open.
Problem is, other than Montreal and maybe Philly, I think pretty much every other team in the East has a chance. The rest of the conference is made up of young teams trying to take a step forward (Buffalo, Columbus, Detroit, New Jersey, Ottawa), aging teams trying desperately to regain their former glory (Pittsburgh, Washington), and grinding defensive teams that seem to always end up on the bubble (Islanders). I can't really say I think any of those teams are definitively out of it.
That leaves about 9 teams fighting for 3 spots. And while some teams (e.g., New Jersey) might have better odds than others (e.g., Detroit), I think most of the teams in this tier are pretty close to one another. That leaves us with roughly 1 in 3 odds of making it.