Not at all.. 60-70%. Based on the fact that 23% of all NHL games go to OT, the remaining 77% would be split based on who gets more points in regulation. Without doing the math, it's safe to say that the split would be at least 60-40 in the Rangers favor over Buffalo. So .6*.77+.23 = .692 chance that we get a point tonight. Now obviously each team isn't exactly as good as their record shows, but that's what the percentages say based on prior performance and league trends.
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Not at all.. 60-70%. Based on the fact that 23% of all NHL games go to OT, the remaining 77% would be split based on who gets more points in regulation. Without doing the math, it's safe to say that the split would be at least 60-40 in the Rangers favor over Buffalo. So .6*.77+.23 = .692 chance that we get a point tonight. Now obviously each team isn't exactly as good as their record shows, but that's what the percentages say based on prior performance and league trends.
Don't forget that the Isles and Jets still play each other.. 77% chance that someone takes 0 points away from that game. Also strength of schedule is a big factor when predicting the outcome of future games. Our remaining SOS is much easier than other teams fighting for the spot which defnitely weights the percentages.
Intuition tells us that anything can happen in these games, and percentages can be thrown out the window for that reason. But the math itself can't really be argued.
silverfish
got perma'd
Since sixth is essentially a pipe dream at this point, I really dont' know if I want 8th or 7th. Penguins, or Habs? If the Bruins can jump into the 2 seed I'll take them.
Although this is a severe case of "be careful what you wish for"
Low expectations going into the playoffs this season (let's get there first, huh?) and can never be too disappointed.
Although this is a severe case of "be careful what you wish for"
Low expectations going into the playoffs this season (let's get there first, huh?) and can never be too disappointed.
Bluenote13
Believe In Henke
Really? I think it's quite doable.
We have to win, both Ottawa and the Isles have harder schedules.
With a 4-1 record, there's only a 21% chance of us getting 6th. Need to win out.
Bluenote13
Believe In Henke
Just remember, while stats like that make you comfortable (80%+ chance of making the playoffs in the last week of the season), they are not predictive stats. Its purely based on what teams have done and says nothing about what they will do.
There's no certainty but I think we should be confident that the Rangers will make it. Of course some of us will always wait for the other shoe to drop.
There's no certainty but I think we should be confident that the Rangers will make it. Of course some of us will always wait for the other shoe to drop.
- Sep 17, 2007
- 24,908
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It helps that winnipeg plays the isles tomorrow and our last 4 games are all against teams below us in the standings (devils, florida, carolina, devils).
Winnipeg has isles, buffalo, washington and montreal.
GordonGecko
First Ping Pong Ball
takes into account strength of opponent and previous performance against specific teams. They are predicting how games will turn out based on played simulations
ImIdaho
Choo-Choo-Choose me!
- Mar 21, 2012
- 4,722
- 0
Probably takes into account like how the Devils have been playing like ****, but they always bring it against us and Kovalchuck is coming back.
Malarowski
Registered User
- Jul 25, 2012
- 389
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BBKers
Registered User
Winnipeg - NYR 1st round playoff ?
NYR win the 4 remaining games (or 3-1) and takes 6 th Conference
Winnipeg beat NYI and Washinton later and takes SE-division (3rd Conference)
Washington out ?
NYR win the 4 remaining games (or 3-1) and takes 6 th Conference
Winnipeg beat NYI and Washinton later and takes SE-division (3rd Conference)
Washington out ?
4.4% chance we play WPG as of right now, but anything is possible.
One thing I found interesting - in the WPG-NYI game, we should root for a NYI win above all else, even if it comes in SO or OT. A WPG regulation win would hurt our playoff chances more than a 3-point game that favors the Isles.
Maineice11
Registered User
I haven't watched much of Washington, but from highlights and what many hockey analysts are saying, I don't think Ranger fans should be wanting to play them. They have been on a roll and in no way easy series nor easier than Pittsburgh or Montreal/Boston. I cringe a bit when I say montreal because Rangers would have to find some way to win just 1 game in montreal in order to win that series. I think montreal is the one opponent you want to try to avoid.
Kakko
Formerly Chytil
broadwayblue
Registered User
Boruto
.
- Jun 27, 2011
- 15,613
- 436
BBKers
Registered User
"Two things are infinite - the universe and human stupidity. On second hand, I am not so sure about the universe..."
Who wrote this? I am thinking math here
Who wrote this? I am thinking math here
Krams
Registered User
- Feb 13, 2012
- 8,042
- 1,982
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