2009
The Pick: Magnus Paajarvi-Svensson
Consensus BPA: Paajarvi Svensson was definitely the BPA at the time. When MacKenzie released his final pre-draft list, he had MPS as the #10 pick, but the idea was that nobody thought it would ever happen and that if it did, it would be a major steal.
In the Range: Leading up to the draft, most people thought we'd probably end up with whichever one of Glennie or Kulikov fell to us. Glennie was gone at 7, but Kulikov was available. Names like Moore, Ellis, and Schroeder were discussed as possibilities, but for the most part Kulikov and Glennie were the guys that we were hoping for.
Who We Should've Picked: While Ryan O'Reilly is probably the best player to come out of that draft after #10, he was a projected 2nd rounder who did go in the 2nd so I didn't include him (even though he wasn't an option for our 2nd pick). Kulikov probably would've ended up the better pick, and Leddy has developed well too, but would we have been able to trade for Perron if we didn't have Paajarvi? I'm not sure, and I also think I'd rather have Perron than those two defensemen. An argument could be made for a couple of guys, but I prefer what we ended up with.
2010
The Pick: Taylor Hall
Consensus BPA: Despite all the Taylor/Tyler debating that took place, I'd say Hall was definitely the front-runner all along. I'm confident that there would've been no debate at all if Seguin was a winger.
In the Range: It was a two-horse race. Taylor or Tyler. One was going to go #1 and the other would go #2. #3 was a distant 3rd.
Who We Should've Picked: Taylor Hall. We definitely took the right player. That's not a shot at Seguin at all, but I would take Taylor 10 times out of 10.
2011
The Pick: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
Consensus BPA: RNH was ranked #1 pretty much everywhere. But that's not to say there wasn't debate.
In the Range: Couturier, Landeskog, Huberdeau, and Larsson were all talked about as legitimate contenders for the top spot. The year prior it was seen as a two-horse race between Couturier and Larsson, but by draft day, Couturier had fallen in the public eye. Most likely due to a defensive role at the WJC and a bout of mono. Huberdeau shot up the charts over the course of the year.
Who We Should've Picked: I think I still take RNH at the end of the day, but lordy that Landeskog is a player. I like Couturier too, but I think the top 2 picks made in this draft year were the right ones.
2012
The Pick: Nail Yakupov
Consensus BPA: Yakupov. There really wasn't a realistic second option at the time.
In the Range: Even though Yakupov was the top rated player everywhere, there was still talk of guys like Murray, Galchenyuk, and Grigorenko. Forsberg was in some discussions, but not at all at the level of the others. Before we won the lottery, there were basically two camps here. The Murray group and the Grigorenko supporters. This is because everyone knew there was no chance Yakupov wouldn't go #1 overall.
Who We Should've Picked: I'm in the minority, but I still say Yakupov. It's a shame the BPA was another winger, but I still think he ends up the best player in this draft. One bad season not withstanding. And I'm not even blaming the coach on this. Yakupov struggled out of the gate with some bad luck and it snowballed from there. If some of those early bounces went in, I'm sure we would've seen a much different season from him. Success breeds confidence and a lack of confidence can seep into other areas of a player's game. This isn't something that's uncommon among young players, especially ones as passionate as Nail. Overall, I'm sure he'll be fine.