Prospect Info: Devils Win #2 Overall -- Slafkovsky vs. Jiricek vs. Nemec

[StevenToddIves]

Kemell has had rankings around the #1-3 European prospect over the last year and a half, and in Liiga scored 16 in 15 with 10 goals before injuring his shoulder. His shot fan be gotten off from anywhere and he plays with a heavy tenacity for only 5'10" (though hes 170), used his body more than youd expect

While I personally have him as the #5 ceiling behind Wright Cooley Jiricek and Slafkovsky, I do have him higher in floor than Jiricek and Slafkovsky.

I dont take anyone or anything for granted when it comes to scouting and Lucas Raymond is a great, recent example of what undersized Euro talent can do when slept on. And Kemell, before his injury, was on a trajectory to score Barkov-numbers in SM-Liiga

Raymond is the opposite of Kemell. Raymond was greatly undervalued because of numbers, Kemell was somewhat overvalued because of numbers.

Now, Kemell is an outstanding prospect -- I'd say he compares in many ways to Alexander Holtz as a potential goal-scoring weapon at the NHL level. But I don't see how we're immediately conceding his ceiling is higher than a Nazar or Miroshnichenko or Savoie or Lambert or Geekie. He's certainly more of a finisher than a line-driver.

Using a sh% from a 15-game sample size that wasnt even above 25% isnt exactly a fair critque considering it was always likely to go down over the entire season, one in which he played the remainder of reeling from an injury.

Yes it was high during his hot start but that doesnt disqualify him from still showing more at that age than you normally see from a 5'10" forward. Also PP goals will alwats inflate SH% totals, especially for his usage at 5v5. Take a peek at historical 17yo seasons in SM-Liiga and youll notice all but one are 6'2" and taller (the great Fin Mikael Granlund)

Id still take Cooley over him but Kemell is a serious talent who shouldnt be forgotten.

Kemell should certainly not be forgotten -- but he should also not be a consideration at #2 overall in this draft.

 

[Guttersniped]

Kemell has had rankings around the #1-3 European prospect over the last year and a half, and in Liiga scored 16 in 15 with 10 goals before injuring his shoulder. His shot fan be gotten off from anywhere and he plays with a heavy tenacity for only 5'10" (though hes 170), used his body more than youd expect

While I personally have him as the #5 ceiling behind Wright Cooley Jiricek and Slafkovsky, I do have him higher in floor than Jiricek and Slafkovsky.

I dont take anyone or anything for granted when it comes to scouting and Lucas Raymond is a great, recent example of what undersized Euro talent can do when slept on. And Kemell, before his injury, was on a trajectory to score Barkov-numbers in SM-Liiga

Raymond was more of a playmaker, his hockey IQ was always known to be spooky good. He was very productive on power play in SHL, he wasn’t exactly a greasy goal guy of sniper. He was a play driver as well.

The worry with Raymond was he might be too “European” (aka soft and floaty) in his playing style and that, combined with his size, plus the fact that he was playmaker, meant that he wouldn’t score enough or do things that NHL coaches like and bust his way back to Sweden.

Raymond was supposed to take awhile before he was NHL ready, partly because he wasn’t going to be strong enough. He’s not like Kemell to me though.

 

[Lottery Lucky]

Using a 15-game sample to say he was going to produce like Barkov doesn't make sense either.

I was only referrencing his trajectory. Barkov is the greatest Finnish prospect ever, tough shoes to fill.

and a little fun fact is Kemell through his first 15 games was a top-5 start to a SM-Liiga season by a draft eligible prospect.

But the likelihood the Devils take him at 2 is low and so I should probably focus more on spreading the word of the gospel that is Logan Cooley to the satan-worshipping Devils fans (lol)

 

[ChicksDigTheTrap]

There was an article done a while back that compared the Canucks drafting to instead having just taken the highest available PPG CHLer and the CHLer list blew away what the Canucks picked. I want to see someone do that on a league wide scale using NHLe

I saw an article that NHLe beat the Sabres using WAR as the performance factor. A lot of those types of articles use games played which is not a great metric to use for success of a pick IMO. Not saying GAR/WAR are the best but IMO better than games played. Sabres were interesting because players like Risto and Zadarov are basically busts when using GAR/WAR numbers even thought they both played lots of games

 

[StevenToddIves]

So far I've been waffling between Slafkovsky, Cooley, and Nemec. I'm pretty sure I'll be happy with the pick on draft day if we take any of those three but so far I don't think any of them is the obvious pick.

Slafkovsky looks like he might be the best finisher out there which would be great to have on Hughes' wing. IMO big forwards are hard to project at that age though because it's hard to tell how much of their success so far is attributable to being able to physically overmatch opponents in a way that they won't be able to in the NHL. Maybe he develops into another Mikko Rantanen but I could see him having a career like Val Nichushkin. Nichushkin finally had a great year with the Avs as a 27-year-old, but I think we'll be pretty disappointed if that's the kind of career our 2OA pick has.

Cooley might be BPA. Looking at an NTDP kid as a potential pick this high, I like to separate their numbers against NCAA and international competition and by my count, he tallied 39 points in 27 games during the non-USHL portion of their schedule. My concern is that we'd probably end up moving him to the wing and it's unknown how well he would make the transition.

I've got even more to learn about Nemec than the other two, but Byron Bader's tweet thread about him caught my attention. Adding him to the D prospects we already have is extremely tempting. Similar to Slafkovsky, my reluctance on him is mostly about difficulty projecting his value. It seems like the skating and offensive ability are there, but the defensive side of the game is so hard to project and at 2OA, you really want to be sure that you're going to hit.

I understand that you always want to pick the BPA as a rule but when you have 3 options who are as close as I think these three are, then eventually organizational need has to enter the equation as a tiebreaker.

I included in the title of this thread Slafkovsky, Jiricek and Nemec because those should be the candidates at #2 overall for the Devils.

Byron Bader needs to be eliminated as a viable source, particularly on defensemen. He does not watch the players, and his statistical assessment of Nemec over Jiricek -- though it's ok to prefer either over the other -- is downright silly. Similarly, the defensive side of the game is not difficult to project, unless you are someone who does not watch the players, like Bader.

The simplest way to state this is: Nemec is better now offensively and they are about even defensively, but Jiricek has more upside both offensively and defensively.

Nemec is a sublime passer and puck-mover, while Jiricek is a physical force with a cannon of a shot, who also passes well and moves the puck well, just not quite as well as Nemec. Jiricek can make mistakes which Nemec will not, but Jiricek still has a high IQ and is capable of dominating entire shifts and games in a way Nemec, a more subtle defender, is not.

They're both great players if you watch them. I currently have Jiricek #3 overall and Nemec #4 overall. I'd be thrilled with either at #2 overall, if the Devils decided to go for a RD.

Lastly, saying Cooley might be the BPA is a bit murky in that Slafkovsky might be the BPA, and Jiricek might be the BPA. It's pretty close at the top this year. But you're certainly correct that Cooley might be very unhappy if picked by the Devils, because he likely doesn't see himself as a 3C or being forced to change positions. It's a can of worms the Devils don't need to bother with, as Slafkovsky and Jiricek and Nemec would all be great picks who would be thrilled to come to New Jersey. So yes, I agree -- as most people here would -- it's close enough that organizational need should be factored in.

I was only referrencing his trajectory. Barkov is the greatest Finnish prospect ever, tough shoes to fill.

and a little fun fact is Kemell through his first 15 games was a top-5 start to a SM-Liiga season by a draft eligible prospect.

But the likelihood the Devils take him at 2 is low and so I should probably focus more on spreading the word of the gospel that is Logan Cooley to the satan-worshipping Devils fans (lol)

Yes, Logan Cooley is an unbelievably great prospect. No one doubts this. He will be a great player for a long time for Arizona or Seattle or Philadelphia.

 

[Tretyak 20]

I don't think anyone is discrediting Cooley. I think what most of us are saying is that as prospects go, Cooley, Slafkovsky, Jiricek and Nemec are neck-and-neck, so why would you take the one who plays a position we're stacked at instead of the others who play positions of need? Makes zero sense.

 

[Lottery Lucky]

Exactly how you draft a player wrong is not by factoring in size but by simply drafting for size. Slafkovsky is a player with skills which are right there with Cooley, if not better. Where Cooley has the obvious edge in skating ability, Slafkovsky has an obvious advantage in play down low, on the cycle, and in the crease. Because he does not simply have size -- Slafkovsky also knows how to use it effectively.

These reasons contribute to why Slafkovsky will end the year as the #2 pick in the consensus. He was #2 in my April rankings, and he was #2 in the McKenzie NHL scout poll released yesterday.

Now, Cooley is an outstanding prospect in his own right, and no one is dismissing this. But I think it's a stretch to think he'll be happy to move to the wing, or to play a 3C role behind Hughes and Hischier. You're asking for potential problems with the #2 pick with Cooley, where you're addressing solutions to problems with Slafkovsky, Jiricek or Nemec.

Again -- were Cooley the surefire #2 pick? Then sure, it would be a consideration. But why stretch for the #3 guy at #2 when you can just take the #2 guy who fills a greater need? It makes no sense.

I know I'm repeating myself a bit, but it's very close at the top of the draft. I'd say it's a slim margin between all of my top 2-6:

2 Slafkovsky
3 Jiricek
4 Nemec
5 Nazar
6 Cooley

I think there's a drop off after Cooley at #6. If someone wants to argue Nemec is better than Jiricek? Fine. If someone wants to argue Cooley is better than Slafkovsky? Fine. They're not unrealistic stretches of imagination. I think differently, also fine. But there's no way someone could argue that one of these players is so far ahead of the rest that we can't factor in anterior facts, like: the Devils need a Jiricek, they need a Nemec, and they need a Slafkovsky far, far more than they need a Nazar or Cooley.

Therefore, I think the argument is simply who do the Devils draft, Slafkovsky, Jiricek or Nemec? As terrific as he is, I do not foresee Cooley factoring into the Devils decision very much at all.

Certainly it seems you know more than your fair share about these prospects. When I make comments like 'people want the guy for his size' im speaking more to the armchair GM in all of us as fans, and when youre building that roster out in your head you tend to favor attributes that dont normally make a big discrepancy in a BPA argument

Ive found myself agreeing with much of what you have said, though I do think Logan's interior play isnt as bad at it would seem comparatively to Slafkovsky; Cooley certainly isnt a perimeter player by any means idt.

Where I differ is the idea of drafting with your current roster in mind. Ive always been a believer in the idea of BPA in the top-3/5, with absolutely no wiggle room for assessment of the current roster. However Id separate this from 'need', as I think to need a specific skillset is fine and by definition that would reflect on the current roster; but when I speak of the roster I mean 'where would we place Cooley, 3C or 2RW? Would he be happy with RW? Etc.'

In those situations I put zero stock into where the player will play but instead how and how well. And I dont like taking firm stances on things relating to teenage prospects, but this is my one area I do. It is certainly not ideal for NJ to pick another speedy, smaller center whos game matches that of our three best forwards.. but when you are picking this high in the draft my only concern is coming out with the 2nd best player available to us.

If the Devils feel Cooley is a 1A to a Slafkovsky or Jiricek's 1B, then by all means make that pick for need and celebrate. But if Cooley is seen as a 1 to a Slafkovsky or Jiricek's 2? IMO you need to pick Cooley there. And it doesnt take thinking hes the next McDavid to have him slightly above the other two either.

My 1-5 are Wright Cooley Slafkovsky Jiricek Nemec, and as of this moment I do have Cooley as a 1/2 to Slafkovsky. But this is also based in my personal scouting bias of course, and so we will be stuck wondering until July 8th what NJ's draft board order looks like. If Fitzgerald has them closer than that, then Id lean Slafkovsky over Jiricek for fit.

 

[PWiz30]

If you can get Slaf to be the Nuke that he's been in Colorado for his entire prime then I'd be absolutely f***ing thrilled. He'd be put in a better position to produce here than Nuke has been for most of his time in Colorado and Nuke's been one of the very best two way play drivers in the league for years. I don't know if he gets there but I'd take it.

It took Nichushkin 6 years and a new organization to find his footing in the NHL, plus another 2 years before he produced any offense. If a career like Valeri Nichushkin's is a good outcome for a 2nd overall draft pick then Zacha was a steal at number 6.

You're underrating Jiricek here by not even including him

That's fair. Based on the limited information I've been able to absorb so far, Nemec is my guy if we're taking a defenseman with that pick but I am 100% open to the possibility that I could end up preferring Jiricek.

 

[Lottery Lucky]

Raymond was more of a playmaker, his hockey IQ was always known to be spooky good. He was very productive on power play in SHL, he wasn’t exactly a greasy goal guy of sniper. He was a play driver as well.

The worry with Raymond was he might be too “European” (aka soft and floaty) in his playing style and that, combined with his size, plus the fact that he was playmaker, meant that he wouldn’t score enough or do things that NHL coaches like and bust his way back to Sweden.

Raymond was supposed to take awhile before he was NHL ready, partly because he wasn’t going to be strong enough. He’s not like Kemell to me though.

The comparison of Kemell and Raymond was strictly to point out that undersized European wingers tend to get a lot of extra criticisms placed on them that I dont think NA prospects of similar stature and production get. And mainly this is tied to the size of the rink as well as a laser focus on their production, since on average a smaller offensive stud is seen as less likely to contribute to the other parts of a game (which is always conflating of scouting issues as the bigger ice doesnt do justice to most European forwards' defensive prowess)

I wouldnt expect Kemell to produce as quickly as Raymond but I also wouldnt expect Kemell to be too far off from Raymond when their careers are complete. Though I can agree that Raymond is more of a playdriver and so he has more of his future in his hands than a Kemell would. If a Kemell can be put next to a stud center for a majority of his career, he can be a deadly scorer

 

[glenwo2]

Jesus...I was over at allaboutthejersey and the amount of people who believe Cooley is the 2nd coming of Jack Hughes is astronomical.

What is going on here?

 

[Captain3rdLine]

There really is no "Best Player Available" once you start getting into the late 1st round. Even in the middle of the first round, BPA varies greatly depending on the reasons you stated.

But in the top 10ish of the draft, especially the top 5, you have to take the best player available.

If Logan Cooley is deemed the best player available by the Devils scouts, then that's who the Devils should select.

Look no further than the 2018 draft. Montreal badly needed a center at the time. They had the best player available in LW Brady Tkachuk sitting there for the taking at 3rd overall. They passed on him to take a player that played a position of need in C Jesperi Kotkaniemi. Not even 3 years later and they are kicking themselves for doing so.

Always, always take the BPA at the beginning of the draft.

In my opinion, none of Slafkovsky, Jiricek, Cooley, or Nemec have separated themselves from the pack. They are all essentially even right now in my book. That's where this #2 overall pick gets tough. I do not envy being Fitzgerald/Dennehy/Castron/Harris right now.

But every teams draft board is different. They may genuinely have seen Kotkaniemi as the better prospect.

That is fair, but no one can deny the Kotkaniemi pick was off the board and seemed like a selection that was simply based on positional need.

Not completely. It was seen as a possibility coming in as he had shot up draft boards coming in.

 

[SJinNewJersey]

Organizationally we have a glaring bottomless pit at RD. This needs to be addressed and this is the draft to do so.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

It took Nichushkin 6 years and a new organization to find his footing in the NHL, plus another 2 years before he produced any offense. If a career like Valeri Nichushkin's is a good outcome for a 2nd overall draft pick then Zacha was a steal at number 6.

I think he was saying if Slafkovsky turns into what Nuke has been in Colorado, that would be a positive outcome. Not that it would be good if it took him that long to get there.

 

[GettingYourMoms]

I still think Jiricek is best fit. I am sure Luke is already checking his videos and scouting reports and salivating.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

I still think Jiricek is best fit. I am sure Luke is already checking his videos and scouting reports and salivating.

I’m sure Jack is salivating at the idea of having Slafkovsky on his wing.

 

[My3Sons]

Organizationally we have a glaring bottomless pit at RD. This needs to be addressed and this is the draft to do so.

Is that any bigger than the gaping hole at 2C until Mercer develops further?

I’m sure Jack is salivating at the idea of having Slafkovsky on his wing.

So the tiebreaker is Luke and Jack do best of seven Rock Paper Scissors to decide who gets his wish?

 

[Ripshot 43]

Jesus...I was over at allaboutthejersey and the amount of people who believe Cooley is the 2nd coming of Jack Hughes is astronomical.

What is going on here?

Stop cheating on us.

What aren’t we doing for you over here that is causing a wandering eye glenwo? We can do better I promise!

 

[GettingYourMoms]

Is that any bigger than the gaping hole at 2C

It is certainly bigger than my gaping hole

 

[My3Sons]

It is certainly bigger than my gaping hole

Easy there George, this is a family friendly board. My dogs may be reading this.

 

[GettingYourMoms]

Easy there George, this is a family friendly board. My dogs may be reading this.

In my soul

 

[My3Sons]

In my soul

Man, that's even darker than the obvious. We may have to make your posts black and white like film noir.

 

[VilgrainNPelusosBaby]

Team Cooley; the optics show it all. Watch the tape to any laymen’s fan. Slaf-shot as he is now deemed in lieu of the lottery, will ultimately be a our only the NHL. 6’4 at 220 at 18, ain’t going to hold well on them ankles. Reminds me of yesteryear when fans were clamoring for Nichushkin, & Crouse in their respective draft years, & only now almost a decade later are they relevant. Ted envy & Bergfors the new Swede connection, with Urbom! I know it’s the age of social media and everyone loves to tickle their taint of pundency, but should Wright go first overall, grab my Cooley, as his skill set reigns supreme over the heavies in the Eastern European leagues. Can’t predict the future, & picking a relatively slow fit with no vision big left winger, is akin to selecting a running back in the NFL, or a 1b -man in the MLB at 2 overall in their league’s drafts.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

Team Cooley; the optics show it all. Watch the tape to any laymen’s fan. Slaf-shot as he is now deemed in lieu of the lottery, will ultimately be a our only the NHL. 6’4 at 220 at 18, ain’t going to hold well on them ankles. Reminds me of yesteryear when fans were clamoring for Nichushkin, & Crouse in their respective draft years, & only now almost a decade later are they relevant. Ted envy & Bergfors the new Swede connection, with Urbom! I know it’s the age of social media and everyone loves to tickle their taint of pundency, but should Wright go first overall, grab my Cooley, as his skill set reigns supreme over the heavies in the Eastern European leagues. Can’t predict the future, & picking a relatively slow fit with no vision big left winger, is akin to selecting a running back in the NFL, or a 1b -man in the MLB at 2 overall in their league’s drafts.

This is obviously a troll

 

[Japam]

All the loose comps to Jagr earlier in the thread had me curious so I went and looked up his pre-draft report card. You aint kidding that it's very similar to what I've read about Slaf. If the Devils draft him he'd better not bust.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

All the loose comps to Jagr earlier in the thread had me curious so I went and looked up his pre-draft report card. You aint kidding that it's very similar to what I've read about Slaf. If the Devils draft him he'd better not bust.

Jagr himself said Slafkovsky plays like him.