Prospect Info: Devils Win #2 Overall -- Slafkovsky vs. Jiricek vs. Nemec

[My3Sons]

I don’t recall criticism of Hlotz’s skating leading up to the draft and I don’t recall criticism of Smith’s skating leading up to his draft. I’d think that would be relatively easy to evaluate. I’m surprised it was missed in both cases.

 

[Devs3cups]

I don’t recall criticism of Hlotz’s skating leading up to the draft and I don’t recall criticism of Smith’s skating leading up to his draft. I’d think that would be relatively easy to evaluate. I’m surprised it was missed in both cases.

Holtz skating was definitely mentioned around here and on scouting reports I feel. His skating was said to be average if I remember correctly. It was never shown as a strength, but it was never shown as a huge weakness either, just meh. A player who rather uses his positioning in the o-zone and his shot to succeed.

Smith, I frankly can’t remember. I vaguely remember his edgework being mentioned as good but his top speed to be below average.

 

[My3Sons]

Holtz skating was definitely mentioned around here and on scouting reports I feel. His skating was said to be average if I remember correctly. It was never shown as a strength, but it was never shown as a huge weakness either, just meh. A player who rather uses his positioning in the o-zone and his shot to succeed.

Smith, I frankly can’t remember. I vaguely remember his edgework being mentioned as good but his top speed to be below average.

To me there is a difference between skating is fine if not great and skating will hold them back. Some of it may just be that the NHL game is incrementally faster than even two or theee years ago. Holtz and Smith are being criticized now for skating that will possibly significantly limit them as NHL players and that seems qualitatively different than anything I can recall in their draft seasons and I’m just surprised it was missed

 

[Nubmer6]

Holtz skating was definitely mentioned around here and on scouting reports I feel. His skating was said to be average if I remember correctly. It was never shown as a strength, but it was never shown as a huge weakness either, just meh. A player who rather uses his positioning in the o-zone and his shot to succeed.

Smith, I frankly can’t remember. I vaguely remember his edgework being mentioned as good but his top speed to be below average.

I definitely remember Smith being mentioned as a very good skater, but I'm suspecting it referred more to his edge work than his speed.

 

[Monsieur Verdoux]

I definitely remember Smith being mentioned as a very good skater, but I'm suspecting it referred more to his edge work than his speed.

If I remember correctly, it was also mentioned that McLeod is a great skater. I just don't see it.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

Jack also shot 16% and there is a possibility that as we add more talent, he takes less shots. He will likely score 35 but I wouldn't expect him to be a consistent 35-40 goal scorer.

I understand Holtz didn't look good at the NHL level but it was a very small sample and the reality was he needed more time to develop. He will have another offseason to train. The production he had in the AHL level is encouraging.

I would expect him to be given every opportunity to make the team.

I didn’t say Jack will be that. Just that I see a lot more potential for him to be a 35-40 goal scorer than Holtz.
This also isn’t about Holtz not looking good in his NHL stint. Not sure how many times I have to say that.
His skating just isn’t close to good enough.

The production is great an encouraging but as it’s been mentioned 100 times there’s a lot more that goes into evaluating a prospect than production.

 

[Team Concept]

There was bust talk in the Holtz thread after his 10 games in the AHL.

Yep, I'll proudly repost what I posted at the end of last season. I hope it turns out for the better for him in the future, but players drafted after him THIS past season did better than him.

• May 15, 2021

• #104

I have this sinking feeling that Holtz is going to be a bust. I know its early, but players picked after him are doing much better in the AHL so far.

Pick 13 Seth Jarvis 9-7-4-11 +8
Pick 10 Cole Perfetti 32-9-17-26 +1
Pick 8 Jack Quinn 15-2-7-9 -14
Pick 7 Alexander Holtz 9-1-2-3 -4

Anton Lundell also looks like a stud based on his WJC performance and his season in Finland.

 

[Fanatik]

As someone who has worked internationally and with people from all over, you can never conduct an accurate psychological test on someone who is not speaking in their native language.

I don’t know how they do these tests in sports but the business world gave up these tests (unless in native language) 20 years ago.

I also would need a foundation with Juraj to work off of, which can take many visits to fill (or at least one very lengthy sitdown with an adult).

I agree with you but Im just using what I have available to me, plus its just a cool thought exercise. Hes still my pick at #2

 

[Captain3rdLine]

I don’t remember people going “Holtz looks amazing but he isn’t getting any points” last year in the AHL.

I do remember hearing “Holtz isn’t scoring and he doesn’t look like the dominant player I expect him to be. Too slow, knocked off the puck too much, step behind in processing play, and can’t score”

People are saying those same things this year despite all his production.

I could be misremembering but I’d be surprised if people talk worse about his AHL play this year than they were last year.

That’s exactly the point though. Just because his production improved drastically doesn’t mean he’s all of the sudden on a great projection as a prospect again. People are judging him off of his production far too much. He will struggle to be a contributor at the NHL level with his skating his current skating level right now. And he’s unlikely to improve it drastically. That doesn’t mean he won’t improve it and he won’t figure it out and succeed at the NHL level but his poor skating makes it less likely.

 

[Fanatik]

I didn’t say Jack will be that. Just that I see a lot more potential for him to be a 35-40 goal scorer than Holtz.
This also isn’t about Holtz not looking good in his NHL stint. Not sure how many times I have to say that.
His skating just isn’t close to good enough.

The production is great an encouraging but as it’s been mentioned 100 times there’s a lot more that goes into evaluating a prospect than production.

Dont really need to be a good skater if your shot can go in from anywhere. He isnt someone who makes his own shot anyway, he works best off of being fed

Holtz is only 20 and clearly has the best shot in the organization. Just remember, Siegenthaler looked downright awful his first stint here and now he seems to be a stable top-4 defensive dman for us... and hes 23

All in due time.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

Right now, his skating isn't the best. Fitz has even said so. If I remember correctly, Fitz talked about his "first step" needing to get better. So that's clearly an area he needs to improve on, the team knows it and Alex knows it (he's training with Bratt's skating coach too this summer).

With that being said, this aspect of his game can, and probably will, get better. Of course he'll never be the fastest or best skater, skating usually doesn't improve that dramatically. But with his skillset, if he becomes average to slightly above average, he'll get his looks with the type of players we have, who are mostly "playmaker types".

To me, the fact that Holtz put up those numbers in his first true pro, N.A season with his skating being a weakness is a good sign, not a bad one, and shows to me that his scoring touch really is that good. Kid basically just turned 20, and has things to work on, as many prospects do. I wouldn't give up on him right now, unless there's a deal you can't pass up on.

You’re too focused on the numbers. The skating is going to make it quite a bit harder on him to succeed. He can’t keep up with our current playmakers and his skating is well below NHL average right now and it’s unlikely to ever be average.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

The Holtz discourse stinks and I don’t like it.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

Holtz will be worth having even if his overall play level never rises above middle 6 level, because having his shot from the circle on the 1PP will make him worth the pick alone.

The fact is, Holtz has an elite-level shot. That's why NJ drafted him. I'm not looking to ship him out, because we haven't seen what Holtz can do for the Devils' elite playmakers on the PP yet.

You’re significantly overrating his shot. He isn’t Ovechkin and there’s a ton of players who have good powerplay shots in the NHL.
If it’s in his wheelhouse and he connects he’s got a great shot. My issue and why I don’t see it as nearly as dangerous of a shot as you’re suggesting is because he isn’t very good at adjusting when the pass isn’t perfectly in his wheelhouse which it more often than not isn’t. That’s what really makes a great sniper on the powerplay. Also only 7 of his 26 goals this season were on the powerplay.

I’m not sure he’ll be on our pp1 when he makes it.

 

[Triumph]

If I remember correctly, it was also mentioned that McLeod is a great skater. I just don't see it.

He had a torn meniscus in his D+2 season, that might've been enough to rob him of the top-top end speed. McLeod is one of the fastest players on the Devils but he's rarely going anywhere.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

I don’t recall criticism of Hlotz’s skating leading up to the draft and I don’t recall criticism of Smith’s skating leading up to his draft. I’d think that would be relatively easy to evaluate. I’m surprised it was missed in both cases.

Smith has good edgework. He just isn’t quick or powerful enough but that really didn’t show at lower levels.

The interesting thing with Holtz from my view is that I think he was a better skater earlier on. If I watch video of his skating earlier on even before his draft year his skating looked much better to me. Now it looks really stiff and awkward.
Almost like he’s been beefing up and trying to put on muscle to the point where he’s not moving as fluidly and loosely.

Dont really need to be a good skater if your shot can go in from anywhere. He isnt someone who makes his own shot anyway, he works best off of being fed

Holtz is only 20 and clearly has the best shot in the organization. Just remember, Siegenthaler looked downright awful his first stint here and now he seems to be a stable top-4 defensive dman for us... and hes 23

All in due time.

His shot isn’t nearly as good as people are making it out to be. If he has lots of space and the puck in a perfect spot it’s very good but that rarely happens. He isn’t good enough at adjusting nor is his release anything special.

I’m also not saying Holtz won’t figure it out. But concerns with Siegenthaler weren’t about his physical aspects or skating. He just didn’t look comfortable and like he could mentally keep up.

 

[Triumph]

Smith has good edgework. He just isn’t quick or powerful enough but that really didn’t show at lower levels.

The interesting thing with Holtz from my view is that I think he was a better skater earlier on. If I watch video of his skating earlier on even before his draft year his skating looked much better to me. Now it looks really stiff and awkward.
Almost like he’s been beefing up and trying to put on muscle to the point where he’s not moving as fluidly and loosely.


His shot isn’t nearly as good as people are making it out to be. If he has lots of space and the puck in a perfect spot it’s very good but that rarely happens. He isn’t good enough at adjusting nor is his release anything special.

I’m also not saying Holtz won’t figure it out. But concerns with Siegenthaler weren’t about his physical aspects or skating. He just didn’t look comfortable and like he could mentally keep up.

If Holtz is slow and his shot is nothing special and he's weak along the boards, how did he score 26 goals in 52 games in his D+2? Sometimes I think people should try to read the posts they write.

 

[Devs3cups]

Yep, I'll proudly repost what I posted at the end of last season. I hope it turns out for the better for him in the future, but players drafted after him THIS past season did better than him.

• May 15, 2021
• #104

I have this sinking feeling that Holtz is going to be a bust. I know its early, but players picked after him are doing much better in the AHL so far.

Pick 13 Seth Jarvis 9-7-4-11 +8
Pick 10 Cole Perfetti 32-9-17-26 +1
Pick 8 Jack Quinn 15-2-7-9 -14
Pick 7 Alexander Holtz 9-1-2-3 -4

Anton Lundell also looks like a stud based on his WJC performance and his season in Finland.

From what I can see, you posted this after his 9-10 AHL games which weren’t great production wise. His production this season was WAY better and more in line with what we hoped, whether or not we take his extremely small NHL sample this year into account. I hope we can at least acknowledge that it was premature to get the bust talk out after less than 10 AHL games, especially given his production this year.

As for him busting, I doubt he’ll bust, at worst he’ll be a middle 6 guy who’s shot is very useful on the PP. His shot and offensive positioning will allow this.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

If Holtz is slow and his shot is nothing special and he's weak along the boards, how did he score 26 goals in 52 games in his D+2? Sometimes I think people should try to read the posts they write.

It’s almost like that’s not what I said. I think you should read the posts that you’re responding to.
I’ll explain how.
He’s a smart offensive player with good skill and a good shot who played on a very good AHL team.
It’s not that he doesn’t have some strong skills. It’s that he has some other parts of his game that could hold him back.
As I’ve said countless times he could quite possibly turn out and figure things out at the NHL level but his poor skating is something that will make it much harder and that weakens his outlook as a prospect for me.

You have to look past the numbers man.

 

[Devs3cups]

You’re too focused on the numbers. The skating is going to make it quite a bit harder on him to succeed. He can’t keep up with our current playmakers and his skating is well below NHL average right now and it’s unlikely to ever be average.

That’s simply where we disagree, I don’t feel his skating can’t improve. It is what it is lol!

 

[Captain3rdLine]

That’s simply where we disagree, I don’t feel his skating can’t improve. It is what it is lol!

I never said his skating can’t improve. It can but it’s unlikely to drastically improve and I wouldn’t bet on that happening when evaluating a prospect.

 

[Monsieur Verdoux]

He had a torn meniscus in his D+2 season, that might've been enough to rob him of the top-top end speed. McLeod is one of the fastest players on the Devils but he's rarely going anywhere.

Okay, that might explain it. However, speed is good but his skating isn't particularly smooth otherwise. His brother seems to be a better skater.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

You do not have to be a very good skater to score goals in the NHL, especially given the quality of center he will play with. There is no rule that 20 year olds cannot improve their skating and he really doesn’t need to improve much to be average. It’s hyperbole to act like he’s some slug.

I’m still amazed at the general sentiment of this player after a very successful AHL season. By the standard this board has set, he would be considered a bust already if he didn’t have the great season he put together.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

You do not have to be a very good skater to score goals in the NHL, especially given the quality of center he will play with. There is no rule that 20 year olds cannot improve their skating and he really doesn’t need to improve much to be average. It’s hyperbole to act like he’s some slug.

I’m still amazed at the general sentiment of this player after a very successful AHL season. By the standard this board has set, he would be considered a bust already if he didn’t have the great season he put together.

Because evaluating is about a lot more than just how he produces at lower levels. The standard shouldn’t just be about production. I’d feel a lot better about him if he put up 10 less goals but his skating was good. It’s all about how their game will translate and I think his game will struggle to translate to the NHL level. He’ll struggle to be able to keep up with our fast, skilled playmakers.

No one is saying he has to be a very good skater. And he is absolutely no where near average. His straight line speed sure. His edgework isn’t close to average. Also not sure who said 20 year olds can’t improve their skating.

 

[Guttersniped]

I don’t recall criticism of Hlotz’s skating leading up to the draft and I don’t recall criticism of Smith’s skating leading up to his draft. I’d think that would be relatively easy to evaluate. I’m surprised it was missed in both cases.

Smith never had great skating but it’s more a strength issue. Also the demands on skating as defenseman is way higher because you lose foot battles in so many directions and you’re playing a 200 ft game.

Holz can improve by gaining strength and endurance and off-season coaching, it’s a weird myth that player’s skating can’t improve.

Physical maturing, along with a player staying healthy, while dedicating themselves to pro-level off-season conditioning training and continued skating training can lead to considerable real improvements when these guys are younger. They do need a solid base of posture, mechanics etc or this is way harder (see Mason Marchment, who was an extreme form of a hot mess on skates and is a miracle of player development, though he’s going to continue to be injury prone w/ that skating.)

 

[Oneiro]

I will say that I absolutely loathe the amount of average to sub-average skating we've drafted the past 4 seasons. With Rossi on the board, I'm still not sure how much I like the Holtz pick, despite his shot.

In general, skating + IQ/hockey nerd-dom is a pretty damn easy filter and I'm not sure why we manage to trip up something so basic. It would be one thing if it felt like the team was looking for Pavelski/Benn-types who move well without the wheels. Not sure if that's the case.

I'm on my second screwdriver this Sunday but seriously, f*** "tools"-y drafting.