Devils team discussion (news, notes and speculation) - season begins!

[tailfins]

Wait a minute. I mentioned this yesterday that I’ve noticed when looking at the game logs on the NHL app when a goalie allows an own goal it lists him as allowing one goal than he allowed, but it also says 23 saves on 25 shots, but only credits him with one goal allowed.

When I go to hockey reference he was listed as allowing two goals.

I’m not sure why they’re complicating this. If a goalie gives up a goal on fewer shots on goal, it’s gonna hurt his save percentage. Not help it.

I don’t understand this and never heard anything about this before this season.

So instead of 2 goals on 25 shots it’s 2 goals on 24 shots?

Hockey reference still has him listed at 2 goals on 25 shots for the game log on Saturday.

I think it only doesn’t count as a shot on goal on the NHL app. And even on there it counts as a shot, just not a goal lol.

Per Spaulding, for save percentage calculation, the own goal is not counted as a shot and therefore not counted as a goal. So, saved 24 / 25. For save percentage calculation, it seems the own goal would be treated similar to an empty net goal. It's a Goal Against for the team, but does not count against the goalies stats.

I agree it's complicating things though. If Allen makes that save, does it not count as a save? Given the logic above, it shouldn't. But, that would be insane to track.

 

[TrufleShufle]

Wait a minute. I mentioned this yesterday that I’ve noticed when looking at the game logs on the NHL app when a goalie allows an own goal it lists him as allowing one goal than he allowed, but it also says 23 saves on 25 shots, but only credits him with one goal allowed.

When I go to hockey reference he was listed as allowing two goals.

I’m not sure why they’re complicating this. If a goalie gives up a goal on fewer shots on goal, it’s gonna hurt his save percentage. Not help it.

I don’t understand this and never heard anything about this before this season.

So instead of 2 goals on 25 shots it’s 2 goals on 24 shots?

Hockey reference still has him listed at 2 goals on 25 shots for the game log on Saturday.

I think it only doesn’t count as a shot on goal on the NHL app. And even on there it counts as a shot, just not a goal lol.

If they calculate own goals differently it makes sense. Assuming they count own goals as neither a GA or shot. It's just.. there.

25 shots, 2 GA. 92.00%

24 shots, 1GA 1OG 95.83%

 

[TrufleShufle]

Per Spaulding, for save percentage calculation, the own goal is not counted as a shot and therefore not counted as a goal. So, saved 24 / 25. For save percentage calculation, it seems the own goal would be treated similar to an empty net goal. It's a Goal Against for the team, but does not count against the goalies stats.

I agree it's complicating things though. If Allen makes that save, does it not count as a save? Given the logic above, it shouldn't. But, that would be insane to track.

I agree it's over complicating things and probably just easier to count it as it is, but if a player passes back to his own goalie, it wouldn't count as a shot, nor would a bad pass to the point that goes all the way down the ice to the goalie.

Is it worth trying to keep track of? Probably not, but at least they are consistent I guess.

 

[Hockey Sports Fan]

 

[TheBeerNerd]

I love the shoutout to us at the end. "Sickos" is a very apt descriptor. Embrace it.

 

[New Jerseys Devil]

Fellow Devils fans! How are we feeling about this season so far? Hoping for a big win tonight to kick off the Thanksgiving week

 

[TheBeerNerd]

Fellow Devils fans! How are we feeling about this season so far? Hoping for a big win tonight to kick off the Thanksgiving week

Hey new blood! Feeling great about the season. I can tell the team culture feels a lot different compared to last year, when they were clearly rattled early on mentally. Now it feels like we can beat anyone except Tampa.

 

[New Jerseys Devil]

Hey new blood! Feeling great about the season. I can tell the team culture feels a lot different compared to last year, when they were clearly rattled early on mentally. Now it feels like we can beat anyone except Tampa.

Im having fun this year too. Loving what Sheldon Keefe has gotten out of them so far; and with more room to build on that. The future seems really bright

Would love to beat Andrew Brunette and his Predators tonight!

 

[None Shall Pass]

So Dillon had two goals that game

 

[Bleedred]

If they calculate own goals differently it makes sense. Assuming they count own goals as neither a GA or shot. It's just.. there.

25 shots, 2 GA. 92.00%

24 shots, 1GA 1OG 95.83%

Hockey reference still has it the old way. Allen is a .916% on there.

But NHL.com has him at a .921%, which I guess is the difference between the one own goal he allowed in this game/season and not counting dinged for it.

 

[My3Sons]

Hockey reference still has it the old way. Allen is a .916% on there.

But NHL.com has him at a .921%, which I guess is the difference between the one own goal he allowed in this game/season and not counting dinged for it.

Call Blackwood. With his background in epidemiology he can explain the statistical analysis to you.

 

[dgibb10]

Kovacevic is excellent and the Devils can't replace him. What they can do is offer him a Siegenthaler + inflation + a little more kind of deal to stay, which he might take because he's never been paid anything close to that nor had this sort of role. Obviously if he makes it to market and the Devils go deep in the playoffs, that sort of thing is probably off the table, but to me you have to make the attempt, even if means trading both Hamilton and Nemec and losing both trades.

"Get fleeced for your norris contending dman and your 2nd overall pick to sign your UFA depth acquisition after 1 season" is a legitimately insane take I'm sorry.

 

[PKs Broken Stick]

I went back to check the games after that seeing that 12-0 stat when leading in the 3rd. All the games I were thinking of, they were behind and tied it up. Crazy.

What a difference from last season

 

[PKs Broken Stick]

Nemec was a luxury who dropped into our laps. I don't think we should be getting so attached to him as some untouchable prospect. Imo, he's the best trade bait we have and the best asset we have to get something good back in return to fill a need.

Ofc, I'd rather move Dougie this offseason though

 

[My3Sons]

"Get fleeced for your norris contending dman and your 2nd overall pick to sign your UFA depth acquisition after 1 season" is a legitimately insane take I'm sorry.

Dr. Evil is in a bit of a weird spot. His points are solid, he's 9th overall in defense scoring on a counting basis and 14th on a per game basis. Given his somewhat slow start you expect he will improve a bit as the season goes along. His advanced numbers are a bit of a mixed bag with the HD chances under water but the Corsi and Fenwick are fine. He's also got a 980 PDO so he's been unlucky. if NJ moves him to pay Luke they won't get that much for him given the cap hit and the trade protection. Dr. Evil isn't washed up but if NJ wants to sign Luke and Kovacevic they likely need to draw the extra cap from somewhere. Maybe they try to move Palat but that will be really tough given his production/contract ratio. Trading Nemec is absurd unless Anderson is coming back from MTL. Then I'm adding a first round pick if necessary to get it done.

 

[dgibb10]

Nemec was a luxury who dropped into our laps. I don't think we should be getting so attached to him as some untouchable prospect. Imo, he's the best trade bait we have and the best asset we have to get something good back in return to fill a need.

Ofc, I'd rather move Dougie this offseason though

Simon Nemec is the key piece that will help this team remain a contender for a decade+

 

[dgibb10]

Dr. Evil is in a bit of a weird spot. His points are solid, he's 9th overall in defense scoring on a counting basis and 14th on a per game basis. Given his somewhat slow start you expect he will improve a bit as the season goes along. His advanced numbers are a bit of a mixed bag with the HD chances under water but the Corsi and Fenwick are fine. He's also got a 980 PDO so he's been unlucky. if NJ moves him to pay Luke they won't get that much for him given the cap hit and the trade protection. Dr. Evil isn't washed up but if NJ wants to sign Luke and Kovacevic they likely need to draw the extra cap from somewhere. Maybe they try to move Palat but that will be really tough given his production/contract ratio. Trading Nemec is absurd unless Anderson is coming back from MTL. Then I'm adding a first round pick if necessary to get it done.

Hamilton has gotten by far the worst of goalie luck behind him, which makes people think he's been a lot worse defensively than he has.

something like an (EV) 0.870 with hamilton on and a 0.940 otherwise from our tendies.

I can't see moving hamilton this offseason. We don't need to clear 9 mill and there's really nothing to spend the money on. If someone offers me good value for him I take it (I am always in support of making +value moves, like the Marino Pesce swap getting a pair of 2nds for basically free bc pesce took a nice deal).

But this offseason, I don't see anything out there to spend the money on that we wouldn't regret down the line.

Here is what the team looks like without hamilton and a 93 mill cap.

15 mill in space with literally only depth to fill out. I do not like the idea of splurging on an expensive old winger here.

I think you bite the bullet and dump palat

 

[Bleedred]

Per Spaulding, for save percentage calculation, the own goal is not counted as a shot and therefore not counted as a goal. So, saved 24 / 25. For save percentage calculation, it seems the own goal would be treated similar to an empty net goal. It's a Goal Against for the team, but does not count against the goalies stats.

I agree it's complicating things though. If Allen makes that save, does it not count as a save? Given the logic above, it shouldn't. But, that would be insane to track.

It's definitely complicating things. If anything they can put a separate stat as ''Own goal against'' but it's weird that the league is now shaving goals against off a goalies goals allowed when it's an own goal. Hockey reference is still counting it the way they always have. I'm sure the other sites are as well. But NHL.com is no longer acknowledging them as goals.

So you'll go to look up a goalie and they'll have a different save percentage on hockey reference/hockey DB/etc than they will on NHL.com.

Call Blackwood. With his background in epidemiology he can explain the statistical analysis to you.

Speaking of Blackwood, he's benefitted from the goal shave too. I clearly remember before I realized what this was all about (I thought it was just a glitch on the NHL app) that it had Blackwood making 17 saves on 20 shots faced, but a goals against of 4.

NHL.com recognizes Blackwood's save percentage this year to be .909%, but hockey reference has him at .907%, as they nailed him with the own goal against.

 

[dgibb10]

And you can keep kovy, dougie, and pay luke if you want to. This team would leave us 2.6 mill in space on a 93 mill cap.

I think if I were to sell hamilton this offseason, it would either be retaining a portion of his deal to maximize value (and avoid having money available in UFA with no real needs to end up with a silly contract that burns us down the line), or like if for example Claude Giroux would take a 1 year deal.

I do NOT want to move hamilton to replace him with a long term aging winger

 

[My3Sons]

View attachment 935466
And you can keep kovy, dougie, and pay luke if you want to. This team would leave us 2.6 mill in space on a 93 mill cap.

I think if I were to sell hamilton this offseason, it would either be retaining a portion of his deal to maximize value (and avoid having money available in UFA with no real needs to end up with a silly contract that burns us down the line), or like if for example Claude Giroux would take a 1 year deal.

I do NOT want to move hamilton to replace him with a long term aging winger

I agree. My impression was that they’d need to make space to keep Kovacevic and sign Luke long term. Of course that creates a log jam for Nemec/Casey.

 

[TheBeerNerd]

Does Casey have a future in New Jersey? With Kovy blossoming into a revelation and Nemec presumably next up for any RWD injury, I'm not sure if he does.

It's a shame, he has some promise, but given his size I'm not sure if he'll ever be much of a defender.

 

[dgibb10]

I agree. My impression was that they’d need to make space to keep Kovacevic and sign Luke long term. Of course that creates a log jam for Nemec/Casey.

I think Casey is the odd man out stylistically.

We only really even run into cap problems long term (assuming we don't bring in a stupid contract in the coming offseasons) if nemec becomes a player who requires a 9+ mill deal after his ELC, and Mercer becomes a guy who requires a big pay raise as well. Running into cap problems because your guys become studs is a good problem to have. And if they do become studs, you'll get a boatload for them in trade then, so no reason to sell them now.

Does Casey have a future in New Jersey? With Kovy blossoming into a revelation and Nemec presumably next up for any RWD injury, I'm not sure if he does.

It's a shame, he has some promise, but given his size I'm not sure if he'll ever be much of a defender.

He will be an excellent dman somewhere. I don't think that place is necessarily NJD.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

Does Casey have a future in New Jersey? With Kovy blossoming into a revelation and Nemec presumably next up for any RWD injury, I'm not sure if he does.

It's a shame, he has some promise, but given his size I'm not sure if he'll ever be much of a defender.

He seems talented enough to try as a forward/D hybrid player, but I don’t think we’ll ever do it. I’d give it a shot.

 

[Hockey Sports Fan]

Fellow Devils fans! How are we feeling about this season so far? Hoping for a big win tonight to kick off the Thanksgiving week

it’s fine

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

I'm not dumping a 1st to move Palat. At least not right now. He has been serviceable enough since moving up to play with Jack and Bratt