Devils team discussion (news, notes and speculation) - season begins!

[Devils731]

For me, the Devils visually have more structure in the defensive zone and you can see all the guys get involved on defense. 3-5 guys are actively involved at any moment. They still run around sometimes but that will likely lessen as the season goes on and can never totally be eliminated in a fluid sport.

I do wonder if the way the team plays now is the way the team will play all year. The last 2 games the Devils defensive responsibility has limited their ability to get out of the zone at times due to everyone thinking defense first. I wonder if, once the coaching staff feels everyone has the defensive roles as second nature, that the tighter leash can be loosed a bit to allow guys to try and cheat offensively when the risk/reward makes sense.

Similar thought on offense, Devils have dumped the puck in a lot the last 2 games; I wonder if we see the team given more freedom to try and skate it in later on in the year.

 

[NJDfan86]

There have been some big shots (slapper and wrist), in some of the first 3 games, but not on target in the net. On target to the goalie, yup.

I'm worried about the accuracy, but maybe it is a function of him missing 3/4th of a season and the whole rhythm isn't there.

View attachment 917184

NHL EDGE Puck and Player Tracking Statistics - Skaters

NHL EDGE Puck and Player Tracking Statistics for skaters including skating speed, skating distance, shot speed, shot location, and zone time.

edge.nhl.com

Caveat that its super early in the season, but:
- his average shot velo so far this year is above where he has been historically.
- his top shot speed is 94th percentile amongst all dmen which is up a little from where he usually is.
- He hasn't matched his peak shot velo yet from the past few years, but still has one above 90mph.

Not something to worry about IMO, unless the data regresses as the season goes on.

 

[Better Call Sal]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1846619025914368163

Siegs redemption arc.

 

[MasterofGrond]

never any doubt

 

[britdevil]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1846619025914368163

Siegs redemption arc.

Kovacevic is not a rookie though?

 

[TrufleShufle]

Kovacevic is not a rookie though?

He said "essentially." Essentially covers 100-200 games. Saying literally would be less than 82, Kova is at 149.

I know this for a fact because I just made it up.

 

[devilsblood]

He said "essentially." Essentially covers 100-200 games. Saying literally would be less than 82, Kova is at 149.

I know this for a fact because I just made it up.

Ha, as I was reading this I was thinking "this guy is full of it".

 

[devilsblood]

The other thing that stands out to me is where does Carolina go from here? It’s game two and BrindAmour is coaching like it’s game seven of thr finals. Hard matching full forecheck and setting up everything to get a first line fourth line shift. This is peak Canes. They had days of practice for a divisional opponent and actually prepared a specific gameplan and worked on it. They had the last change and the fresh legs. And NJ was one open net shot from tying the game late. Oh and let’s play that game with Luke instead of Nemec and see how it goes. I just don’t see this as a great Canes team if it took this much effort to beat NJ.

There was literally zero first line vs fourth line shifts. Our 4th line was crushed by their 4th line.

What they did have was a rested team that didn't want to go 0-2 vs a team that played 3 games in 4 days. That I think was a legit advantage and played to their aggressive forecheck and puck pressure.

But I can't look past Carolina. They've been a good team for awhile. Most of their core is still there. They are well coached. They are a good team until they prove otherwise imo.

 

[My3Sons]

There was literally zero first line vs fourth line shifts. Our 4th line was crushed by their 4th line.

What they did have was a rested team that didn't want to go 0-2 vs a team that played 3 games in 4 days. That I think was a legit advantage and played to their aggressive forecheck and puck pressure.

But I can't look past Carolina. They've been a good team for awhile. Most of their core is still there. They are well coached. They are a good team until they prove otherwise imo.

they are somewhat the same team they'v been for a number of years now. They get 100% effort and play the right system for their personnel. I still see them as overachieving.

 

[devilsblood]

they are somewhat the same team they'v been for a number of years now. They get 100% effort and play the right system for their personnel. I still see them as overachieving.

And maybe that explains their ceiling in the playoffs.

Jarvis confirming himself as a 30 goal scorer would be big for them. As would Svechnikov getting back to being a 30 goal scorer. Blake could be a wild card for them.

They also like these smallish offensive minded d-men like DeAngelo and Ghost to complement an otherwise sound defensive unit.

 

[My3Sons]

And maybe that explains their ceiling in the playoffs.

Jarvis confirming himself as a 30 goal scorer would be big for them. As would Svechnikov getting back to being a 30 goal scorer. Blake could be a wild card for them.

They also like these smallish offensive minded d-men like DeAngelo and Ghost to complement an otherwise sound defensive unit.

They are still leaning heavily on Burns and Sasquatch (and some other older players). Those guys are old as hockey players go. As the season unfolds I expect them to start falling off. Even last night, Sasquatch got the worst of it to Hischier in the face-off dot. Typically Sasquatch would take Hischier's lunch money there. I think the erosion is starting. Once they start getting banged up and Kotkaniemi has to play 20 minutes per game and have tough matchups and once Ghost is their regular power play QB they will not be as tough as they were last night. I just think the Canes had every advantage and everything went right for them last night. They have nowhere to go but down. Even a small step back and they are potentially vulnerable in the standings.

 

[devilsblood]

They are still leaning heavily on Burns and Sasquatch (and some other older players). Those guys are old as hockey players go. As the season unfolds I expect them to start falling off. Even last night, Sasquatch got the worst of it to Hischier in the face-off dot. Typically Sasquatch would take Hischier's lunch money there. I think the erosion is starting. Once they start getting banged up and Kotkaniemi has to play 20 minutes per game and have tough matchups and once Ghost is their regular power play QB they will not be as tough as they were last night. I just think the Canes had every advantage and everything went right for them last night. They have nowhere to go but down. Even a small step back and they are potentially vulnerable in the standings.

I'm certainly not opposed to the possibility.

 

[Richer's Ghost]

Yeah, I'll be honest, I really would like to see Timo stick on PP1. I understand the reasoning to put Noesen in there as a right-handed shot and for all the work he can do down low. I would feel better about Jack or Bratt operating on PP2 along with Luke when he returns, but I don't know that it would ever happen.

Timo's shot is a weapon on the right side, he has shown he has a good one-timer from that spot in the past. I feel like Jack and Bratt are a bit more redundant in terms of their roles, and that if you could deploy one of each on that left hand side on each PP unit, they both could prosper.

What do I know though lol

We have enough skill to fully stock 2 PPs that can both score imo rather than trying to overload the talent on PP1 with everyone being the shooter.

 

[bossram]

For me, the Devils visually have more structure in the defensive zone and you can see all the guys get involved on defense. 3-5 guys are actively involved at any moment. They still run around sometimes but that will likely lessen as the season goes on and can never totally be eliminated in a fluid sport.

I do wonder if the way the team plays now is the way the team will play all year. The last 2 games the Devils defensive responsibility has limited their ability to get out of the zone at times due to everyone thinking defense first. I wonder if, once the coaching staff feels everyone has the defensive roles as second nature, that the tighter leash can be loosed a bit to allow guys to try and cheat offensively when the risk/reward makes sense.

Similar thought on offense, Devils have dumped the puck in a lot the last 2 games; I wonder if we see the team given more freedom to try and skate it in later on in the year.

This is something Jack Han identified during training camp/preseason for the Devils. Will be something to monitor.

They are definitely more committed to defending. But when you have everyone underneath the hash marks in the DZ, and commit more guys to winning pucks...you don't really have anyone available to break out to.

I agree, with the talent of some of the skaters NJ has, they need some flexibility to create rush chances. In Toronto, Keefe was generally very risk averse in this regard, and preferred more regroups, establishing DZ possession, etc. first rather than trading rush chances. TOR's offense was very tilted toward long OZ possession sequences, not quick strikes.

We'll see if that changes as the season goes on, or continues to be what to expect.

 

[dgibb10]

Does anyone have any further insight into performance bonuses for Luke Nemec and Casey?

I found this for A bonuses (212k each for luke since he's pre 2022, 250k each for nemec and casey)

Casey has a max of 350k

Luke and nemec have the full max of 850k and 1 mill respectively.

With these A) bonuses, I expect

Luke to qualify for at least 2, maybe the full 4 depending on when he gets back + if he gets PP1.

Nemec to qualify for maybe 1-2 at most (+/- maybe, block shots unlikely, ice time maybe)

And Casey to hit none of them

1.5 mill in overages tops probably, with about 500k not rolled over from accrued space?

 

[dgibb10]

I have come to the conclusion I want Lars Eller at the deadline

 

[Deviled]

The problem with Timo is that he's not any good when he isn't shooting. He will often make the wrong play or force a play and it's not worth the difficulty of having 4 lefty forwards to jam that into the lineup. Having a PP2 set up around him should work just fine.

He and Jack should probably be the two leaders in shots this season for us when its all said and done, if things went well. Though I feel Jack has gotten a bit too comfortable ripping them whenever. Dont think his shot is as good as Timo's

 

[devilsblood]

He and Jack should probably be the two leaders in shots this season for us when its all said and done, if things went well. Though I feel Jack has gotten a bit too comfortable ripping them whenever. Dont think his shot is as good as Timo's

Bratt currently up there with Timo in terms of shot attempt rates.

Timo, Bratt, Hughes running 1-2-3 in attempts rate.

Cotter #2 in actual sog rate but further down in attempt rates. His shooting % is ridiculous. His goals per attempts is even more ridiculous relatively speaking.

 

[Deviled]

Bratt currently up there with Timo in terms of shot attempt rates.

Timo, Bratt, Hughes running 1-2-3 in attempts rate.

Cotter #2 in actual sog rate but further down in attempt rates. His shooting % is ridiculous. His goals per attempts is even more ridiculous relatively speaking.

I wouldnt mind Bratt being there either. Then again I say 'I wouldnt mind' as if id be somehow offended or annoyed if it happened lol

I do, though, think Jack ends up top-2 by nature of his playstyle and the chances he is allowed by the defenses. Jack's skating opens holes I dont think Jesper's can, and in turn this should probably bring about a higher shot rate.

Hopefully he learns to bring down the level with which he shoots 'just to create something', whether on the PP or not, because I think it kills more plays than if a Timo was doing the same. Jesper's shot choice seems more defined and so I dont see him totaling the raw numbers necessary to compete with Jack

 

[RSeen]

Have to send Casey down if Luke is back. Casey's role becomes redundant at that point. Let him develop in the minors further and hope Nemec can keep improving up here though he might not even be in the top 6.

 

[Billdo]

Have to send Casey down if Luke is back. Casey's role becomes redundant at that point. Let him develop in the minors further and hope Nemec can keep improving up here though he might not even be in the top 6.

I think Nemec goes down too. Siegenthaler-Hamilton, Hughes-Pesce, Dillon-Kovacevic allows for them to develop more on Utica.

 

[devilsblood]

I think Nemec goes down too. Siegenthaler-Hamilton, Hughes-Pesce, Dillon-Kovacevic allows for them to develop more on Utica.

Kovacevic's play, and Keefe's reliance on him for defensive purposes, has made the unthinkable, sending Nemec down, now seem somewhat reasonable.

 

[devilsblood]

I wouldnt mind Bratt being there either. Then again I say 'I wouldnt mind' as if id be somehow offended or annoyed if it happened lol

I do, though, think Jack ends up top-2 by nature of his playstyle and the chances he is allowed by the defenses. Jack's skating opens holes I dont think Jesper's can, and in turn this should probably bring about a higher shot rate.

Hopefully he learns to bring down the level with which he shoots 'just to create something', whether on the PP or not, because I think it kills more plays than if a Timo was doing the same. Jesper's shot choice seems more defined and so I dont see him totaling the raw numbers necessary to compete with Jack

I like when Bratt shoots a lot. I like it for most players actually.

Is there an argument for Jack shooting less? I dunno, yes last year was his highest shot attempt year, and it wasn't a good year for him, but I think that was the shoulder and not a play style issue. His next highest shot attempt year was 22-23, and that was clearly his best season.

This year he is not shooting a whole lot relative to his career rate, and I think it's fair to say he hasn't been very effective thus far. Maybe deferring too much to his wingers.

I noted above that Meier Bratt are 1-2 in shot attempts, with a fairly big gap before #3. So maybe splitting those guys up gets more shots for Hughes, who, when healthy at least, is probably our best pure goal scorer.

Nico conversely, at #3 in shot attempt rate is "benefitting" playing with Tatar and Mercer, who are 8th and 10th respectively on the team. Mercer's attempt rate at a hair below 9/60, (and 4.5 sog's per 60), is really anemic.

Edit: these are all 5v5

 

[Triumph]

I wouldnt mind Bratt being there either. Then again I say 'I wouldnt mind' as if id be somehow offended or annoyed if it happened lol

I do, though, think Jack ends up top-2 by nature of his playstyle and the chances he is allowed by the defenses. Jack's skating opens holes I dont think Jesper's can, and in turn this should probably bring about a higher shot rate.

Hopefully he learns to bring down the level with which he shoots 'just to create something', whether on the PP or not, because I think it kills more plays than if a Timo was doing the same. Jesper's shot choice seems more defined and so I dont see him totaling the raw numbers necessary to compete with Jack

Why are you speculating about this? Bratt and Jack have been on the same team for their whole careers. Over the last 3 seasons, Jack has missed 57 games, and Bratt has missed 6. Bratt has 657 shots in 240 games, Jack has 775 in 189. So yeah, I do think Jack might have a higher shot rate than Bratt this season.