Devils team discussion (news, notes and speculation) - part XXIV

[Oneiro]

Remember that Nichushkin had some difficulties scoring early on after his rookie year. That would've been a disaster here and I think the pressure would've been somewhat intense at that time - we lost a lot of goals after '12. You also had Josefson doing nothing around that time too.

His scoring woes in Dallas also might be one of the best things to ever happen to him - I always liked him, he was always a useful player but seemed pretty damn unlucky. Seems like he figured out some things in Colorado.

 

[glenwo2]

Never seen this one before. 14/15 year old Bratt=Peter Forsberg

Baby Bratt is so adorable.

And him and Forsberg had a nice competition there.

 

[Camille the Eel]

You guys want to be really disappointed in what Thompson can bring to the team, put him in the role McLeod has been playing.

Thompson is a wing correct? I don’t remember him playing center anyway.

Edit: I see he is listed as a right handed center on line. Still I don’t remember us playing him there in the few games he logged with the big club. Where he fits in, if he competes for a spot next year, will be a question.

 

[devilsblood]

Thompson is a wing correct? I don’t remember him playing center anyway.

Edit: I see he is listed as a right handed center on line. Still I don’t remember us playing him there in the few games he logged with the big club. Where he fits in, if he competes for a spot next year, will be a question.

I think he played some center in college. Not sure what he has been playing in the AHL. I know he has definitely played wing in the past, and has played wing in his time in NJ, which makes it all the more difficult for him to jump into the McLeod role.

I put the odds of Thompson replacing McLeod next season at right about zero.

At this point replacing Boq seems pretty unlikely as well, but that kind of makes more sense.

 

[Zippy316]

A 3rd line is more important than a top 6 forward, because if Holtz develops the Devils will have 6 of them, and if Gritsyuk comes over next year that would make 7.

The Devils 3rd line this year has -- at least over the second half of the season -- been the absolute worst in the NHL. No scoring, no physicality, no defense, no interior play. Devils opponents essentially get a breather every 4th shift.

Like many others, I was hoping Zacha would build on his career year of 2020-21, but this year he's really regressed. Johnsson had a hot start and then has fallen apart completely -- not quite the liability he was last year, but he's still such an easy out for opposing defenders it's almost embarrassing. Tatar has shown flashes of effectiveness and then flashes of invisibility, and you have to wonder if its age or compete level. There's a reason this guy was a perennial playoff scratch, and giving him two years was probably Fitzgerald's biggest contractual mistake as GM.

When you put any two of those three around Jesper Boqvist, the opposing defense does not have to worry about getting hit or a tough forecheck. They can take their time with the puck and make player through neutral ice with their heads up or down, it doesn't matter. No one crashes the crease, there is no cycle down low. There is basically nothing except Boqvist giving the Devils a nice speed element and Zacha's shot being something opposition D must caution against.

I think the final 10 games of the year determine whether Boqvist is in the NJ future plans as 3C. But Zacha, Johnsson and Tatar simply have to go. They do not score enough for a top 6 role and they have no elements necessary for an effective 3rd line. You can't play any of them on the PK except Zacha, and you can't play any of them on the PP except Tatar. They're like a black hole, no roles, no energy, nothing.

I agree maybe Zetterlund can take a spot here. But let's go after guys like Nichushkin and Niederrreiter who would add a physical element and some interior play. Though Niederreiter's best scoring days may be in the past, Nichushkin can play top 6 and push a player down to the 3rd line who would make the unit more offensively dangerous, like Holtz or Mercer. Marchment might be a good call too, though we can't be sure of what his contractual demands would be.

I agree with this, I don’t think all three need to go though just two of the three. I do agree with the third line needing to bring a different game, but I don’t think it needs a huge overhaul like you claim. If Wood comes back, his line (hopefully with McLeod-Bastian) will bring some of that too.

Sharangovich - Hughes -
Bratt - Hischier -
Tatar - Mercer -
Wood - McLeod - Bastian
Kuokkanen - Boqvist

Have that penciled into next season. For one of the open spots, add one interior forward like Nichuskin, Marchment, Niederreiter. Other two spots can be taken by Kuokkanen, Boqvist, Zetterlund, Holtz, or Thompson. There’s also a chance that Greer makes it and perhaps even a long shot at Foote.

 

[devilsblood]

There has been a bit of tongue in cheek talk about how much better a job we have done keeping the puck out of our own net once Hughes went down.

But there does look to be something to it. He averages more 5v5 minutes per game than any other fwd, and amongst fwd's with at least 70 minutes played(which negates guys like Holtz and Gauthier) also has the worst shots against rate and goals against rate.

Now he's not the worst in terms of corsi against, scoring chances against or high danger against, and of course he's generating a ton of offense the other way, but if we believe the theory that high event hockey combined with inferior goaltending leads to a goalie death spiral, then he is the face of the franchise.

 

[devilsblood]

The Devils 3rd line this year has -- at least over the second half of the season -- been the absolute worst in the NHL. No scoring, no physicality, no defense, no interior play. Devils opponents essentially get a breather every 4th shift.

Like many others, I was hoping Zacha would build on his career year of 2020-21, but this year he's really regressed. Johnsson had a hot start and then has fallen apart completely -- not quite the liability he was last year, but he's still such an easy out for opposing defenders it's almost embarrassing. Tatar has shown flashes of effectiveness and then flashes of invisibility, and you have to wonder if its age or compete level. There's a reason this guy was a perennial playoff scratch, and giving him two years was probably Fitzgerald's biggest contractual mistake as GM.

When you put any two of those three around Jesper Boqvist, the opposing defense does not have to worry about getting hit or a tough forecheck. They can take their time with the puck and make player through neutral ice with their heads up or down, it doesn't matter. No one crashes the crease, there is no cycle down low. There is basically nothing except Boqvist giving the Devils a nice speed element and Zacha's shot being something opposition D must caution against.

I think the final 10 games of the year determine whether Boqvist is in the NJ future plans as 3C. But Zacha, Johnsson and Tatar simply have to go. They do not score enough for a top 6 role and they have no elements necessary for an effective 3rd line. You can't play any of them on the PK except Zacha, and you can't play any of them on the PP except Tatar. They're like a black hole, no roles, no energy, nothing.

I agree maybe Zetterlund can take a spot here. But let's go after guys like Nichushkin and Niederrreiter who would add a physical element and some interior play. Though Niederreiter's best scoring days may be in the past, Nichushkin can play top 6 and push a player down to the 3rd line who would make the unit more offensively dangerous, like Holtz or Mercer. Marchment might be a good call too, though we can't be sure of what his contractual demands would be.

Over the last 35 games, in which Boq has played 32 of them, he has been on the ice for 18 goals for and 15 goals against.

I'm not doing the leg work to check every third line in the league, but I'm guessing that is a little better than the "absolute worst in the NHL".

We recently talked about the importance of using stats in our analysis, think this is a pretty good example of that.

 

[RangerDoggo]

There has been a bit of tongue in cheek talk about how much better a job we have done keeping the puck out of our own net once Hughes went down.

But there does look to be something to it. He averages more 5v5 minutes per game than any other fwd, and amongst fwd's with at least 70 minutes played(which negates guys like Holtz and Gauthier) also has the worst shots against rate and goals against rate.

Now he's not the worst in terms of corsi against, scoring chances against or high danger against, and of course he's generating a ton of offense the other way, but if we believe the theory that high event hockey combined with inferior goaltending leads to a goalie death spiral, then he is the face of the franchise.

He is the Joker

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

There has been a bit of tongue in cheek talk about how much better a job we have done keeping the puck out of our own net once Hughes went down.

But there does look to be something to it. He averages more 5v5 minutes per game than any other fwd, and amongst fwd's with at least 70 minutes played(which negates guys like Holtz and Gauthier) also has the worst shots against rate and goals against rate.

Now he's not the worst in terms of corsi against, scoring chances against or high danger against, and of course he's generating a ton of offense the other way, but if we believe the theory that high event hockey combined with inferior goaltending leads to a goalie death spiral, then he is the face of the franchise.

Have we? MTL put in 7, Dallas could’ve easily had 5 if they didn’t hit 3 posts and just miss a couple open nets, and then we played the worst team in the NHL.

 

[devilsblood]

I've been as frustrated with Zacha's season as anyone, I think he has not built upon his success last season, especially offensively, and I do think it really boils down to effort.

However,

He has posted some of the best defensive metrics on the team.

Best corsi against rate. 3rd best shots against rate. 2nd best xGA rate(though 6th best GA rate and he does seem to typically lag behind the expected here), 3rd best sca rate, and 4th best hdca rate.

I know a lot of that comes with playing on Nico's wing, but it's not all of it. Even if he's not a good defensive center, I think his center mindset helps bring a positive defensive contribution when he is on the wing.

 

[devilsblood]

Have we? MTL put in 7, Dallas could’ve easily had 5 if they didn’t hit 3 posts and just miss a couple open nets, and then we played the worst team in the NHL.

Like I said, most 5v5 minutes, worst shots against rate, worst goals against rate.


Did Dallas hit some posts? That happens in every NHL game.

 

[RangerDoggo]

Like I said, most 5v5 minutes, worst shots against rate, worst goals against rate.


Did Dallas hit some posts? That happens in every NHL game.

Can't speak for Dallas but Kessel hit two posts against us.

 

[Better Call Sal]

There has been a bit of tongue in cheek talk about how much better a job we have done keeping the puck out of our own net once Hughes went down.

But there does look to be something to it. He averages more 5v5 minutes per game than any other fwd, and amongst fwd's with at least 70 minutes played(which negates guys like Holtz and Gauthier) also has the worst shots against rate and goals against rate.

Now he's not the worst in terms of corsi against, scoring chances against or high danger against, and of course he's generating a ton of offense the other way, but if we believe the theory that high event hockey combined with inferior goaltending leads to a goalie death spiral, then he is the face of the franchise.

I mean, it's a small sample size of 4 games where we still gave up a 7 burger to one of the worst teams in the league. We also faced a team that isn't very good at 5 on 5 in the Rangers and another one of the bottom 5 teams in Arizona. I don't think you can reasonably make this argument as things currently stand. I suppose it's an interesting study for the end of the year, though.

 

[devilsblood]

Another thing we've been talking, and I've been in on this, is the similarities of the 3rd line winger options we have.

Tatar, Johnsson, Zacha. Not they are carbon copies, but lefty wingers who aren't bringing a whole lot of offense, either don't shoot enough, or aren't great shooter, don't bring much physically. I think anyone of them is OK, but having all 3 is too much of OK.

And I think Kuok is another guy who we can throw into that basket. He might be more Zacha then the other two in that he does bring some defense, but lags in terms of poor shot rate, but just another guy who is just OK in too many ways.

As Kuok is more a 13th fwd imo then the other guys, I mean this more towards him, but I'd rather Greer in that spot. I've liked what he brings, he puts shots on net, he has size, and he uses that size. He does bring the dreaded "grit", but also, at least in Utica as well as in his limited NHL time this year, some offense as well.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

Like I said, most 5v5 minutes, worst shots against rate, worst goals against rate.


Did Dallas hit some posts? That happens in every NHL game.

I think I’m confusing the posts with the Coyotes games actually. But Dallas did seemingly miss multiple wide open nets.

Jack’s corsi against per 60 is 9th on the team (minimum 500 mins), xGA per 60 is 7th, SCA per 60 8th, HDCA per 60 is 12th. He’s just getting really boned by the goalie (under 88% of shots being saved).

 

[devilsblood]

I mean, it's a small sample size of 4 games where we still gave up a 7 burger to one of the worst teams in the league. We also faced a team that isn't very good at 5 on 5 in the Rangers and another one of the bottom 5 teams in Arizona. I don't think you can reasonably make this argument as things currently stand. I suppose it's an interesting study for the end of the year, though.

Take away the recent games we have played without Hughes and just look at the games we have played with Hughes.

He plays more minutes than any other fwd. While being on the ice for more shots against, and more goals against than any other fwd.

I was thinking this the other day. What do you want your team to do if the opposition has brought up a 21 year old goalie in his first pro season? Or the opposition pulled some guy from the AHL who had a good NHL season 5 years ago, but has been a dud ever since? Get shots on net.

With Hughes we allow that to happen more then any other fwd.

 

[devilsblood]

Anyways, you guys mull this over, I have to go scrape a huge driveway (yes it's as bad as it sounds).

 

[Triumph]

Jack Hughes 5v5 on-ice SV%, first two seasons: .916 Team SV%: .912

Yeah, not buying that Jack Hughes is somehow responsible for tanking the Devils SV%. It's funny to watch people come up with explanations that don't start and end with 'the goalies are terrible' though.

Now have the Devils changed the way they play? Yes, they're entering the zone with less control and playing lower event hockey. I don't think that's how they are going to be successful with Jack Hughes on the team though.

 

[Better Call Sal]

Hopefully the Avs are tired from throwing up a 9 spot on the Kings last night.

The win against them earlier in the year was one of the most fun games of the season, no doubt.

 

[Omar Little]

Jack doesnt like to play stop / start hockey. It's what makes him so dangerous in transition, cause he's always moving. As he matures he should learn, particularly in the defensive zone on the breakout to ensure we have the puck before he flies the zone. If there are sub-optimal passes, he needs to be prepared to slam on the brakes and ensure there is proper coverage. It's hockey 101 but I'm not too fussed right now. Issues like that will become more magnified as the games we play become more important and I'm confident he'll adjust.

 

[NJDevs26]

I mean, it's a small sample size of 4 games where we still gave up a 7 burger to one of the worst teams in the league. We also faced a team that isn't very good at 5 on 5 in the Rangers and another one of the bottom 5 teams in Arizona. I don't think you can reasonably make this argument as things currently stand. I suppose it's an interesting study for the end of the year, though.

It’s also possible they’re finally slowing down the fire wagon hockey approach without Hughes to score (or Siegs to put out the five alarm fires on D, it’s not like you can make the case the D is better without him though).

 

[glenwo2]

It’s also possible they’re finally slowing down the fire wagon hockey approach without Hughes to score (or Siegs to put out the five alarm fires on D, it’s not like you can make the case the D is better without him though).

Maybe slowing down the fire wagon hockey approach will become a regular thing next season?

 

[Camille the Eel]

I think he played some center in college. Not sure what he has been playing in the AHL. I know he has definitely played wing in the past, and has played wing in his time in NJ, which makes it all the more difficult for him to jump into the McLeod role.

I put the odds of Thompson replacing McLeod next season at right about zero.

At this point replacing Boq seems pretty unlikely as well, but that kind of makes more sense.

Next year is very hard to game out right now. If we have just what we have under contract here and in Utica right now, we already have a log jam at forward . . . where Zetterlund is already making a case for next year and where Holtz may also be ready.

You add Thompson to that list and the possibility of adding an established scoring winger by trade or by free agency and we can't accommodate everybody without subtracting some players.

It's an embarrassment of riches and a puzzle for Fitzgerald to put together the right mix while maintaining depth and managing the contract $.

As Mcleod was a high draft choice, is seasoned with experience and can do multiple things like face-offs and penalty kills, and the coaching staff seems to like him, he's got at least an even money chance to stick with us next year as the 4th line center/PK guy he is this year.

Still, I can't see a contending team, even a solid bubble team with a good chance to securing a playoff spot in the highly competitive East, that has McLeod as its 4th line center. We need more out of that position. We at least need a guy who can reliably be in on the forecheck and force turnovers and a line that can dump, chase and cycle, and McLeod has never done that effectively.

 

[Triumph]

Next year is very hard to game out right now. If we have just what we have under contract here and in Utica right now, we already have a log jam at forward . . . where Zetterlund is already making a case for next year and where Holtz may also be ready.

You add Thompson to that list and the possibility of adding an established scoring winger by trade or by free agency and we can't accommodate everybody without subtracting some players.

It's an embarrassment of riches and a puzzle for Fitzgerald to put together the right mix while maintaining depth and managing the contract $.

As Mcleod was a high draft choice, is seasoned with experience and can do multiple things like face-offs and penalty kills, and the coaching staff seems to like him, he's got at least an even money chance to stick with us next year as the 4th line center/PK guy he is this year.

Still, I can't see a contending team, even a solid bubble team with a good chance to securing a playoff spot in the highly competitive East, that has McLeod as its 4th line center. We need more out of that position. We at least need a guy who can reliably be in on the forecheck and force turnovers and a line that can dump, chase and cycle, and McLeod has never done that effectively.

McLeod has absolutely done that effectively, part of the reason he hasn't done it effectively this year is because he's had a guy like Vesey or Kuokkanen on his wing and not Wood, who can enter the zone with possession and get a good cycle game going.

I don't understand this notion of 'we need more out of the 4th line center position'. It's one of the least important forwards on the team. It's not even clear on a lot of teams who the 4th line center is.

Florida has used some combination of Eetu Luotsarainen, Joe Thornton, and Noel Acciari this year. Toronto has Jason Spezza, a unique situation. Tampa seems to have used PE Bellemare. Boston has Tomas Nosek. Carolina has Derek Stepan, the Rangers have Kevin Rooney, Pittsburgh has Brian Boyle, and Washington has Nic Dowd. Are most of these guys better than McLeod, probably, but not in any significant way except Spezza.

 

[SKNJD9]

I think most of the time when a pick is exchanged solely for the negotiation rights, there's a strong sentiment that they'll sign. Probably via "unofficial" conversations and hypotheticals but does it happen often where they don't? None come to me off the top of my head.

Bernier's rights were included in the Ned trade. They tried to lock him up an failed, leading to Rannta going to Car and JB ending up here