Devils team discussion (news, notes and speculation) - part IV

[billingtons ghost]

This isn’t entirely accurate.

End of December through March last season the Devils had a top 10 offense. Thats when Nico had a 100 pt pace over like 25 games and Jack and Bratt were also on fire. That was one of the few times we were healthy.

Offense was there, the play wasn’t all that great, just like this current stretch. What’s the difference? The goaltending shit the bed last year while it’s saving us now.

We had 18 games in a stretch from Late Dec through March where we lost where we scored at least 2 goals. Goalies need to win some of those games.

Edit: MY GOD. Out of those 18 losses, we actually scored at least 3 in ELEVEN of them. Cmon now. Average Goaltending wins many of those games. Team was pushing play enough and scoring. Goalies didn’t make the necessary saves.

I don't think anyone is saying we got average goaltending last year.

But to try to compare the mess we've seen over the past five years to what we have now, even with our dicey play as of late is just ridiculous.

Yeah we are getting average+ tending now, but the fact that Severson was eating minutes last year is so indicative of the kind of 'look good for two periods and then leave your goalies out to dry with horrendous breakdowns' style of play....

Nothing short of prime Hasek would have saved last year's team. The personnel, coaching and above all maturity of this team is so far removed from those disasters that I don't know why anyone would want to talk about those years and 'what might've been'.

I mean:. Ty Smith, everybody! Literally the worst defenseman in the league. Don't your stats back that up?

 

[Lou is God]

damn, so it sounds like Grisyuk might stay over there another year or two...not sure I like the sound of that.

Wasn't too thrilled to hear that either but I do take comfort in that Fitz is following his blueprint pretty much to the t, he's unrelenting and not going to resort to panic like the Rangers did and rush things.

 

[Bleedred]

I still think Ty Smith will be a good defenseman.

He was pretty solid in his call up with Pittsburgh this year.

If you can trade him for John Marino then you do it every time though. Especially if you're trying to compete.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

I don't think anyone is saying we got average goaltending last year.

But to try to compare the mess we've seen over the past five years to what we have now, even with our dicey play as of late is just ridiculous.

Yeah we are getting average+ tending now, but the fact that Severson was eating minutes last year is so indicative of the kind of 'look good for two periods and then leave your goalies out to dry with horrendous breakdowns' style of play....

Nothing short of prime Hasek would have saved last year's team. The personnel, coaching and above all maturity of this team is so far removed from those disasters that I don't know why anyone would want to talk about those years and 'what might've been'.

I mean:. Ty Smith, everybody! Literally the worst defenseman in the league. Don't your stats back that up?

Severson is currently eating minutes for this team. Lots of them. The defense has sucked for a month and Vitek has been incredible. We wouldn’t have been near as bad last year with him in net. The “goalies are solely a product of their defense” hypothesis has been blown to bits.

 

[Bleedred]

Severson is currently eating minutes for this team. Lots of them. The defense has sucked for a month and Vitek has been incredible. We wouldn’t have been near as bad last year with him in net. The “goalies are solely a product of their defense” hypothesis has been blown to bits.

Many of the stats would actually indicate the goalies this year have faced more quality chances and shots than last year's.

Every goalie on this year's team (including #29 despite the low save percentage) is a positive in GSAx, whereas I don't think any of them were a positive last year. Bernier might have been until his last game, which he hasn't been heard from or seen since.

The only goalies that were expected to perform below the league average save percentage were Wedgewood, who only played 3 games and 2 against really high scoring teams, and believe it or not the Hamburglar. I think the Hamburglar was expected slightly below league average and Wedgewood was expected in the .890's%.

Vitek could have a below league average save percentage right now and still be a positive in GSAx. Blackwood has a significantly below average save percentage, but it still a +1.3 (I think?) in GSAx on evolving hockey. Blackwood has never had a + season in GSAx on evolving hockey before this year.

Schmid's GSAx also exceeds his GSAA.

And I'm not sure it's been like this the whole year, but mostly just the last month or so. Earlier in the year Vitek was a bit above league average save percentage, but barely breaking much better than even in GSAx. That's when we were on the heater. Blackwood was still in the minus on GSAx until after he came back from injury and now he's slightly in the positive. Vitek is currently 9th in GSAx in the league.

Sorry, not trying to talk goalies specifically in this thread, as much as how all of them have performed as a whole in relation to the ''System'' or ''Defense in front of them''.

 

[Bleedred]

We've played worse in the last month in front of both the goalies than we were earlier in the year or for the better part of last year.

When we were on the big heater in October-early December there were probably lots of score effects/lower quality shots, as we were running away with games and the opponent wasn't often in the games, which has absolutely not been the case in the last month.

Our expected goals against has been considerably higher the last month than the first 2 months or so. I'd have to think Marino's absence at least exacerbates many of these problems and Siegenthaler hasn't been what he was the first couple of months.

 

[RSeen]

Many of the stats would actually indicate the goalies this year have faced more quality chances and shots than last year's.

Every goalie on this year's team (including #29 despite the low save percentage) is a positive in GSAx, whereas I don't think any of them were a positive last year. Bernier might have been until his last game, which he hasn't been heard from or seen since.

The only goalies that were expected to perform below the league average save percentage were Wedgewood, who only played 3 games and 2 against really high scoring teams, and believe it or not the Hamburglar. I think the Hamburglar was expected slightly below league average and Wedgewood was expected in the .890's%.

Vitek could have a below league average save percentage right now and still be a positive in GSAx. Blackwood has a significantly below average save percentage, but it still a +1.3 (I think?) in GSAx on evolving hockey. Blackwood has never had a + season in GSAx on evolving hockey before this year.

Schmid's GSAx also exceeds his GSAA.

And I'm not sure it's been like this the whole year, but mostly just the last month or so. Earlier in the year Vitek was a bit above league average save percentage, but barely breaking much better than even in GSAx. That's when we were on the heater. Blackwood was still in the minus on GSAx until after he came back from injury and now he's slightly in the positive. Vitek is currently 9th in GSAx in the league.

Sorry, not trying to talk goalies specifically in this thread, as much as how all of them have performed as a whole in relation to the ''System'' or ''Defense in front of them''.

Do you have the numbers behind these? I'd be curious about Mac specifically.

 

[Bleedred]

Do you have the numbers behind these? I'd be curious about Mac specifically.

I posted them the other day before the Nashville game and I think I even posted Vitek’s earlier today, but here’s the updated real time on all of them

I’m not sure if there’s a team list so I just screen shot all 3 guys individually

 

[Peter Sidorkiewicz]

Not really a fan of Graves, I’d take him back on 2 year deal at most but I think we just give his spot to Luke next year and save some money.

I agree with this. We only potentially need a 2nd pairing defenseman stop gap for 2 years after this season, and only if we don’t want to burden Luke Hughes and Simon Nemec with 2nd pairing minutes immediately next season.

If Graves wants term, that pretty much rules him out re-signing in NJ.
Also the 2 year stop gap is important because Mercer needs a new contract after 2 years, and Vanecek contract is up after 2 years. Both will need raises, so that’s why you can’t commit Graves to a long term deal.

This year upcoming UFA class isn’t that great for veteran top 4 defenseman. Orlov would be great but will never sign a 2 year deal. Dumoulin from Pittsburgh might, but if he wants a longer deal, then we might as well back Luke Hughes to play 2nd pairing minutes with Marino because the other UFA options aren’t great. I think most UFA D under age 30 will sign a deal longer than 2 years. Kulikov may fit as a stop gap if we really want a veteran to shield the rookies.

 

[Hisch13r]

Been sitting on this one...

Haven't read everything on here since last night, but took a peek at the rangers board, they're nervous as hell facing us. Excuses everywhere

"Regular season Hughes...gonna be different in the playoffs, he's gonna get hurt"
"Devils just are not good!"
"Playoffs will be different!"
"Not afraid of them at all"
"Will get bounced in the first round"
"Not physical at all:

love it.

And that first one was coming from a Devils fan as well on the main board…

 

[Forge]

Is there a roster freeze during the break?

 

[NjDevsRR]

How’s our boi doing

@RangerDoggo

 

[ZachaFlockaFlame]

I still think Ty Smith will be a good defenseman.

He was pretty solid in his call up with Pittsburgh this year.

If you can trade him for John Marino then you do it every time though. Especially if you're trying to compete.

I don't think it was ever an issue thinking Marino was bad from Pittsburgh's perspective, more so how do you replace his ability at a cheaper rate. It's funny because Marino's high end/stretch pass play style fits way more with us than it does Pittsburgh and Ty Smith fits a lot better with Pittsburgh's more methodical pace.

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

Is there a roster freeze during the break?

doubtful since there are still other games going on

for example, Carolina has 3 games over the next 4 days

 

[MasterofGrond]

Yeah, I should probably log out and set a reminder for the Vancouver game. Not much to discuss without going crazy and in circles right now.

I love these breaks. That’s when the true posters really cook.

 

[Blender]

Lifting this one from reddit:

Dawson Mercer - 28G, 43A, 71Pts, 131GP
Alexis Lafrenière - 37G, 37A, 74Pts, 183GP
Kaapo Kakko - 35G, 46A, 81Pts, 206GP

 

[DerekDevils30]

Vancouver, Seattle, Minnesota, Columbus, St. Louis, Pittsburgh, Winnipeg, Montreal, LA, Philly is the schedule after the break. Can do some damage there I think.

 

[DevilsHughes86]

Is there a roster freeze during the break?

No, but honestly I don't expect any trades

 

[Hisch13r]

Lifting this one from reddit:

Dawson Mercer - 28G, 43A, 71Pts, 131GP
Alexis Lafrenière - 37G, 37A, 74Pts, 183GP
Kaapo Kakko - 35G, 46A, 81Pts, 206GP

I looked at a lot of the mainstays from the 2019 and 2020 drafts recently (outside of Jack). Mercer had the best 5v5 primary production and was like top 5 in overall primary production even though he got comparable PP ice time to Kakko/Laf. Those 3 were at the bottom for PP time

 

[Nubmer6]

I don't think anyone is saying we got average goaltending last year.

But to try to compare the mess we've seen over the past five years to what we have now, even with our dicey play as of late is just ridiculous.

Yeah we are getting average+ tending now, but the fact that Severson was eating minutes last year is so indicative of the kind of 'look good for two periods and then leave your goalies out to dry with horrendous breakdowns' style of play....

Nothing short of prime Hasek would have saved last year's team. The personnel, coaching and above all maturity of this team is so far removed from those disasters that I don't know why anyone would want to talk about those years and 'what might've been'.

I mean:. Ty Smith, everybody! Literally the worst defenseman in the league. Don't your stats back that up?

I think average goaltending would have put us close to the playoff bubble.

I think getting average goaltending AND upgrading our D pushed us to barely making the playoffs.

I think getting average goaltending and upgrading our D AND coaching changes made us a solid playoff team.

I think getting average goaltending and upgrading our D and coaching changes AND the unreal development of Hughes put us where we are now, arguably as cup contenders.

 

[FooteBahl]

No, but honestly I don't expect any trades

 

[glenwo2]

doubtful since there are still other games going on

for example, Carolina has 3 games over the next 4 days

Carolina could put some distance between them and us.

Of course they would have to beat Boston, LA (doable), and beat Buffalo on the road.

 

[Hisch13r]

Bratt is 11th in Patrick Bacon's WAR model. Meier is 14th. They're 4th and 5th among wingers.

Bratt is 23rd in Dom's GSVA. Meier is 28th. They're 7th and 9th among wingers.

Jack is 4th in Patrick Bacon's WAR model. Nico is 26th. They're 3rd and 14th among centers.

Jack is 4th in Dom's GSVA. Nico is 34th. They're 2nd and 13th among centers.

 

[Poppy Whoa Sonnet]

Lifting this one from reddit:

Dawson Mercer - 28G, 43A, 71Pts, 131GP
Alexis Lafrenière - 37G, 37A, 74Pts, 183GP
Kaapo Kakko - 35G, 46A, 81Pts, 206GP

I was just thinking this team would go super saiyan if Mercer took his game to another level but maybe I should be grateful a 21 year old looks this good in the NHL.

 

[JimEIV]

I think average goaltending would have put us close to the playoff bubble.

I think getting average goaltending AND upgrading our D pushed us to barely making the playoffs.

I think getting average goaltending and upgrading our D AND coaching changes made us a solid playoff team.

I think getting average goaltending and upgrading our D and coaching changes AND the unreal development of Hughes put us where we are now, arguably as cup contenders.

Jack in beast mode is the #1 reason for this season success followed Bratt's continuation of excellent play and Nico's 6 year arrival of some decent goal scoring.

Its the goals!

In a league that's averaging 3.15 goals per game this year, higher than last year(3.14) and last year was a 27 year high...if you want to play a fast transitional game you better be putting the puck in the net with some frequency.. And now we are. It really is that simple. It's the goals.