Devils team discussion (news, notes and speculation) - offseason part III

[JimEIV]

It's funny for years we dismissed shit play from players because "they're just babies leave them alone".

Now a guy has one bad season on his ELC and really wasn't all that terrible in the context of the team and his role...and this player sucks and should take a team favorable contract because space is tight.

Yeah ok.

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

It's funny for years we dismissed shit play from players because "they're just babies leave them alone".

Now a guy has one bad season on his ELC and really wasn't all that terrible in the context of the team and his role...and this player sucks and should take a team favorable contract because space is tight.

Not one person has said that Dawson Mercer sucks. And yes, he WAS "all that terrible" last year. Disappeared for weeks at a time. Its okay to say that. That doesn't mean we think he is terrible or will never be able to have good seasons ever again.

 

[JimEIV]

We're going to miss Brendan Smith on the PK a lot. He was a legitimately elite PK guy.

Pesce and Dillon are a significant upgrade over Smith and Bahl on the PK ...
Hope they stay healthy though

Second pair could be a problem

 

[PKs Broken Stick]

If there were no such thing as injuries, I'm actually very comfortable with where the forward group is. It's injuries that will hurt it and that doesn't get fixed by guys like Sprong.

The best thing we could add at this point would be a top-6 quality LW on the cheap (so basically a guy on his ELC) or a 4C that is capable of playing a 3C role. Not a lot of either of those out there available now. An elite-level 4C is a classic deadline add for contenders so I'm comfortable going into the season like this.

I'm actually fine with the wingers as is. As mentioned by several people, it's the center depth that's complete ass. I guess Fitz is willing to roll the dice and make a deadline move for good center depth when the team is actually good lol (But again, my concern here is, yet again another if, something that's been the achilles heel for this team every season under Fitz so far).

 

[Zippy316]

Pesce and Dillon are a significant upgrade over Smith and Bahl on the PK ...
Hope they stay healthy though

Second pair could be a problem

I don’t foresee defense being an issue at all this year. The top-six is arguably one of the best in the league on paper. I think you can make the argument that you could lose two defensemen and still manage to put out a respectable group.

You have two capable fill-in options in Hatakka and White on the left side. Kovacevic is a solid backup option on the right side. Granted the ceiling isn’t super high, but I don’t think Misyul is far off from being a depth option either.

Thats ten defensemen deep to start without even considering Vilen or Casey who are promising prospects.

 

[JimEIV]

I don’t foresee defense being an issue at all this year. The top-six is arguably one of the best in the league on paper. I think you can make the argument that you could lose two defensemen and still manage to put out a respectable group.

You have two capable fill-in options in Hatakka and White on the left side. Kovacevic is a solid backup option on the right side. Granted the ceiling isn’t super high, but I don’t think Misyul is far off from being a depth option either.

Thats ten defensemen deep to start without even considering Vilen or Casey who are promising prospects.

I'm going to assume Pesce and Dillon will be our top PK unit....it may very well take some time for them to mesh...not only that, if they are the top 2 that means Siegenthaler and Nemec are the next two... I can easily see that pair having difficulties with the PK... very easily...I might even go as far to say that I would anticipate it...but I'll hold off on that for now.

But I agree the depth is good. But PK can get a little tricky because depth doesn't really help there...you need someone available all the time.

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

Pesce and Dillon are a significant upgrade over Smith and Bahl on the PK ...
Hope they stay healthy though

Second pair could be a problem

I was told it was IMPOSSIBLE to replace those guys!!!!!

 

[Zippy316]

I'm actually fine with the wingers as is. As mentioned by several people, it's the center depth that's complete ass. I guess Fitz is willing to roll the dice and make a deadline move for good center depth when the team is actually good lol (But again, my concern here is, yet again another if, something that's been the achilles heel for this team every season under Fitz so far).

The center depth is probably enough to get by through the year, but definitely need to get reinforced come deadline time.

I feel like Fitzgerald is certainly going to have some center PTOs up his sleeve. I also wonder if the team thinks highly of either Schmelzer or Bowers to potentially be a 4C option.

 

[Camille the Eel]

I don’t foresee defense being an issue at all this year. The top-six is arguably one of the best in the league on paper. I think you can make the argument that you could lose two defensemen and still manage to put out a respectable group.

You have two capable fill-in options in Hatakka and White on the left side. Kovacevic is a solid backup option on the right side. Granted the ceiling isn’t super high, but I don’t think Misyul is far off from being a depth option either.

Thats ten defensemen deep to start without even considering Vilen or Casey who are promising prospects.

Not just defense - we have plenty of horses if we can institute a strong system and play well as a team. More than enough talent on the blue line and up front. More talent than Boston had last year for example and look at the record they ran up.

Team identity and play will be the keys.

As to the Mercer discussion, this is all a function of nothing really happening right now and we all have to read and post and argue. What contract he’s worth and will accept will become crystal clear when he signs one. Maybe we should make a book on it in the meantime?

 

[Guttersniped]

You don't see a player healthy scratched around 12 times vs one that played all 82 games for 3 straight years particularly meaningful? Bratt's rough "patches" went for years... that's not patches....Bratt was also allowed to play through rough patches...Mercer just didn't have any for his first 2 years.

I think that's wildly different.

I think playing every possible NHL game on your ELC coming straight out of junior is a big deal. I think Mercer's first 3 years were significantly more successful than Bratt's first 3...granted Bratt was a year younger.

But just in the versatility alone, Mercer has been used on every line with ever player in every situation at center and at wing...the kid has been a top 4 PK forward for two of his first 3 years in the league...a PK that was top 10 in the league both years....I mean Bratt's Curriculum Vitae wasn't in the same league as Mercer's after the first 3 years .

Mercer’s rough patches were last year, what year of his career was that again?

I only was speaking specifically to the healthy scratches, in response to a post about Bratt’s healthy scratches. (Other than maybe alluding to age I guess.)

I made no comment about the comparison between the two or their value, so all the rest of this is a bit much.

Also Bratt had 60 GP in the 69 game season, which is the equivalent of ~71 GP in a 82 game season.

Is playing 82 games better? Sure? And Mercer is obviously more versatile as C/W.

I don’t guess at contract estimates, no point.

Evolving Hockey’s contract estimates are typically dead on. His agent isn’t going to fixate on Bratt, his value as an RFA is set by past RFA deals around the league.


Evolving Hockey:

Another model with almost the exact same numbers:

 

[Better Call Sal]

It's funny for years we dismissed shit play from players because "they're just babies leave them alone".

Now a guy has one bad season on his ELC and really wasn't all that terrible in the context of the team and his role...and this player sucks and should take a team favorable contract because space is tight.

Yeah ok.

No one said Dawson Mercer sucks. I know hyperbole is your flavor of the summer based on the past week on this board, but the "gotcha!" you're trying to pull above is equally funny (if not more amusing) in that you're dying on this hill after years of shitting on Jack and Nico's lack of progression. But I suppose that wasn't convenient despite the context of injuries and the team, as well? Oh right, they were first overall picks so they were supposed to just immediately turn everything around on their own in your eyes. No other context mattered. How convenient.

I think almost everyone here likes Dawson Mercer a lot. And everyone just wants to see his contract signed so we can move on. And given it's only July 8th, I am sure it will get done and we can go onto the next subject

I know I'm poking the hornet's nest here, but lucky for me, I get to log off for the night.

 

[MartyOwns]

It's funny for years we dismissed shit play from players because "they're just babies leave them alone".

Now a guy has one bad season on his ELC and really wasn't all that terrible in the context of the team and his role...and this player sucks and should take a team favorable contract because space is tight.

Yeah ok.

boy, it must be frustrating talking to someone who refuses to take context into account

 

[JimEIV]

Mercer’s rough patches were last year, what year of his career was that again?

I only was speaking specifically to the healthy scratches, in response to a post about Bratt’s healthy scratches. (Other than maybe alluding to age I guess.)

I made no comment about the comparison between the two or their value, so all the rest of this is a bit much.

Also Bratt had 60 GP in the 69 game season, which is the equivalent of ~71 GP in a 82 game season.

Is playing 82 games better? Sure? And Mercer is obviously more versatile as C/W.

I don’t guess at contract estimates, no point.

Evolving Hockey’s contract estimates are typically dead on. His agent isn’t going to fixate on Bratt, his value as an RFA is set by past RFA deals around the league.


Evolving Hockey:
View attachment 893377
View attachment 893376
View attachment 893375

Another model with almost the exact same numbers:
View attachment 893378View attachment 893379

Those are are literally part of the numbers that I have been basing Mercer's contract numbers on. I posted the exact spreadsheet a couple pages back.

 

[AfroThunder396]

He really didn't though he performed exactly like his linemates in their given role...

LW Palat 31 points
C Haula 35 points
RW Mercer 33 points

Burry him in the bottom 6 and you get bottom 6 production...I think I read recently average 3rd line production is 32 points....oh look at that.

No matter how many times you keep trying to push this bogus narrative it just simply isn't true, Mercer started in the top-6 and earned his demotion through terrible play. This has been refuted many different times by many different posters and every time it's brought up you ignore it and run away.

Again - he had 5 goals and 3 assists in the first 20 games of the season despite being 3rd in forward TOI over that time period, only Jack and Bratt had a higher average.

It wasn't until after Game ~20 that his ice time went down and he was consistently on the 3rd line. Even then, his production with top-6 ice time in Games 1-20 (0.40 pts/game) was almost identical to his third line ice time production in Games 21-82 (0.42 pts/game).

He had a VERY bad season last year and all of your excuses don't change that.

 

[Guttersniped]

The center depth is probably enough to get by through the year, but definitely need to get reinforced come deadline time.

I feel like Fitzgerald is certainly going to have some center PTOs up his sleeve. I also wonder if the team thinks highly of either Schmelzer or Bowers to potentially be a 4C option.

Rouke Chartier is a defensive/PK center who’s available.
Fun name too.

 

[KovalchukFistPump]

I was told it was IMPOSSIBLE to replace those guys!!!!!

Lol I remember reading that exact post but forget who it was by. Was it from someone that is familiar in the current page of this thread?

 

[dgibb10]

I was told it was IMPOSSIBLE to replace those guys!!!!!

The PK will very likely be worse this year in terms of chance prevention. The question is if the improved goaltending can make up for it.

But NJDs PK last year ranked 5th in terms of preventing chances against (xGA/60).

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

Lol I remember reading that exact post but forget who it was by. Was it from someone that is familiar in the current page of this thread?

it was Jim himself. Which makes it even more hilarious.

 

[dgibb10]

Pesce and Dillon are a significant upgrade over Smith and Bahl on the PK ...
Hope they stay healthy though

Second pair could be a problem

They are a significant upgrade over Smith and Bahl overall.

I disagree with the assertion that they are a significant upgrade over them specifically on the kill. As bad as brendan smith was at hockey, he was one of the best PK dmen in hockey.

 

[JimEIV]

No matter how many times you keep trying to push this bogus narrative it just simply isn't true, Mercer started in the top-6 and earned his demotion through terrible play. This has been refuted many different times by many different posters and every time it's brought up you ignore it and run away.

Again - he had 5 goals and 3 assists in the first 20 games of the season despite being 3rd in forward TOI over that time period, only Jack and Bratt had a higher average.

It wasn't until after Game ~20 that his ice time went down and he was consistently on the 3rd line. Even then, his production with top-6 ice time in Games 1-20 (0.40 pts/game) was almost identical to his third line ice time production in Games 21-82 (0.42 pts/game).

He had a VERY bad season last year and all of your excuses don't change that.

It just not true...I'm looking at the game logs right now with Jack through October is almost non-existent. There is a little bit at the end of November then that's it until the end of February.... But even still we are talking a handful of games total...

Similar for Nico...the first 3 games there is significant time with Nico then nothing until January 3rd against the capitals in a 6-3 win. Then goes back down to nothing shortly after....there just wasn't any real top 6 play all year.

And there was no time with Bratt all year at all

 

[Ripshot 43]

 

[Guadana]

I'm going to assume Pesce and Dillon will be our top PK unit....it may very well take some time for them to mesh...not only that, if they are the top 2 that means Siegenthaler and Nemec are the next two... I can easily see that pair having difficulties with the PK... very easily...I might even go as far to say that I would anticipate it...but I'll hold off on that for now.

But I agree the depth is good. But PK can get a little tricky because depth doesn't really help there...you need someone available all the time.

Nemec was very good as PKer. Everything we need is bounce back from Siegs, but still Nemec just should do his things.
btw 50 min is pretty good sample size.

You are trying to find a lot of problems from the place where there are no problems at all. Pesche was second PKer for Carolina, Dillon was second in Jets. Devils have better PK squad than most of the teams in NHL.

Devils have plenty of options for PP.

Devils had pretty the same offensive squad in 22-23. Full year of Meier is something better than what we had in Zetterlund or Yegor ver 22-23.

Devils will not have the same problems with injuries this year. Because Markstrom and Allen will not let beach balls after first shot, or will not miss 3 goals after 10 shots. Devils forwards will not have reasons to risk every time to tie the game. Devils will have good defensive depth, Nemec and Luke will be more expirienced, still as talented. With all those injuries Devils were 12-13 in scoring last season. Defense and more games of Dougie will help.

You can be happy about what is going on with this roster. Its not a shame, its not a sin.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

It's funny for years we dismissed shit play from players because "they're just babies leave them alone".

Now a guy has one bad season on his ELC and really wasn't all that terrible in the context of the team and his role...and this player sucks and should take a team favorable contract because space is tight.

Yeah ok.

If Dawson Mercer takes a 2 or 3 year deal and actually plays well, he will make much more money than if he locks himself into a long term deal now. A bridge deal is good for our short term, and potentially very good for Dawson’s long term. The cap is going to jump up multiple times and he’ll have more leverage (again, if he plays well).

Not sure why you’re acting like he’s doing us a favor by signing a bridge deal. He takes on some risk, but he can make out very nicely.

 

[Billdo]

If Dawson Mercer takes a 2 or 3 year deal and actually plays well, he will make much more money than if he locks himself into a long term deal now. A bridge deal is good for our short term, and potentially very good for Dawson’s long term. The cap is going to jump up multiple times and he’ll have more leverage (again, if he plays well).

Not sure why you’re acting like he’s doing us a favor by signing a bridge deal. He takes on some risk, but he can make out very nicely.

He should bridge now. No reason to take a 6x5 or something when he do a bridge for like 3.5 and then cash in 3 years at a max contract.

 

[Unknown Caller]

He should bridge now. No reason to take a 6x5 or something when he do a bridge for like 3.5 and then cash in 3 years at a max contract.

This is assuming a big jump in production. Right now Mercer's reputation with the Devils fanbase is significantly greater than his actual on-ice value and performance. It's not like he's had stellar metrics to date where it's just a matter of time before a guaranteed break out.