Devils team discussion (news, notes and speculation) - offseason part III

[Mr Bojanglez]

That's what Shane Pinto just got and Mercer is a better player that has accomplished much , much more.

But Pinto is in Ottawa

 

[JimEIV]

But Pinto is in Ottawa

Mercer played for an Ottawa level team for 2 of his 3 years.

And those two years he still out produced Pinto's 3 years 75 to 70.

 

[Mr Bojanglez]

Mercer played for Ottawa level team for 2 of his 3 years.

Just saying - a team like Ottawa may have to overpay a little bit at the moment - given how reportedly it was kind of sucky in the locker room last year.

 

[JimEIV]

Just saying - a team like Ottawa may have to overpay a little bit at the moment - given how reportedly it was kind of sucky in the locker room last year.

Maybe? But I wouldn't think a RFA that was just suspended for half the year would need to made happy? I would think he would be happy to just have a job after a 41 game suspension?

 

[Mr Bojanglez]

Maybe? But I wouldn't think a RFA that was just suspended for half the year would need to made happy? I would think he would be happy to just have a job after a 41 game suspension?

valid point

 

[dgibb10]

AFP Analytics
$4.32M for 2 years on a bridge deal $6.69M 6 years

That projection was from january.

At that point mercer had 23 points in 47 games, and was closer in time to his good 22-23 season.

After that point mercer finished off the season with 10 points in 35 games. So his value is definitely lower than it was in january.

And onto that projection. Let's look at Lundell. It had him at 6 mill AAV x 6. Off by a mill, and that projection was from BEFORE lundell finished off the season with 17 points in his final 33 regular season games, and then 17 points in 24 playoff games.

So in conclusion. Since then, Mercer has lowered his value, and despite Lundell 100% raising his value significantly with his end to the season, he still got 1 mill AAV less than that projection

 

[JimEIV]

That projection was from january.

At that point mercer had 23 points in 47 games, and was closer in time to his good 22-23 season.

After that point mercer finished off the season with 10 points in 35 games. So his value is definitely lower than it was in january.

And onto that projection. Let's look at Lundell. It had him at 6 mill AAV x 6. Off by a mill, and that projection was from BEFORE lundell finished off the season with 17 points in his final 33 regular season games, and then 17 points in 24 playoff games.

So in conclusion. Since then, Mercer has lowered his value, and despite Lundell 100% raising his value significantly with his end to the season, he still got 1 mill AAV less than that projection

So Mercer's play fell of when the teams play fell off?

From January 5th all the way to the middle of March the team was on a win one/ lose 2 pace.

Chicken or the egg? Either way neither is worth over a million dollar drop off in salary. Which it seems you are suggesting?

Edit
He started out bad too...no points at all in his first 10 games. But that was the case for a lot of payers. When only our PP was keeping our head above water.

I just don't think his drop is as significant as you do... especially not in the context of the team and how Mercer was deployed this season.

 

[Billdo]

The early season, unsustainable, PP success masked a lot of issues.

 

[glenwo2]

I think after the season Mercer had, a bridge deal is probably preferred by both sides. Mercer will want to prove himself, and the Devils will want assurances that last year was fluke.

I'm thinking 3 years because that lines up with end of the Palat deal (presuming we don't dump him or buy him out in his last season).

So he's going to "bet on himself" then.

 

[dgibb10]

So Mercer's play fell of when the teams play fell off?

From January 5th all the way to the middle of March the team was on a win one/ lose 2 pace.

Chicken or the egg? Either way neither is worth over a million dollar drop off in salary. Which it seems you are suggesting?

Edit
He started out bad too...no points at all in his first 10 games. But that was the case for a lot of payers. When only our PP was keeping our head above water.

Every single excuse in the book for Mercer.

Yes, Mercer's lack of production, (when the team needed him to get it together most), hurts his value.

As of January 27th Mercer's contract projection was 700k more than Lundells, or 11.6% higher.

Since then, Mercer played at a 0.285 PPG pace, and Lundell played at a 0.596 PPG pace.

Even if you suggest the gap has remained the same, that would put mercer at 5.58 mill x 6 years. (1.116x5 mill)

 

[Devils731]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1810376729401372681

A nice way to honor someone.

 

[JimEIV]

Every single excuse in the book for Mercer.

Yes, Mercer's lack of production, (when the team needed him to get it together most), hurt his value.

As of January 27th Mercer's contract projection was 700k more than Lundells, or 11.6% higher.

Since then, Mercer played at a 0.285 PPG pace, and Lundell played at a 0.596 PPG pace.

Even if you suggest the gap has remained the same, that would put mercer at 5.58 mill x 6 years. (1.116x5 mill)

That's the thing... I am making no excuses at all...

I want his next contract to equal the value of having payed ever possible game on his ELC, performing well in the 2023 playoffs, and his overall 64 goals 131 points over the course of his Entry Level Contract...

You are the one making excuses on why not to pay him based on his overall performance. You want to look at 1/2 of one season and dismiss 2&1/2...that looks more like excuses to me?

 

[dgibb10]

That's the thing... I am making no excuses at all...

I want his next contract to equal the value of having payed ever possible game on his ELC, performing well in the 2023 playoffs, and his overall 64 goals 131 points over the course of his Entry Level Contract...

You are the one making excuses on why not to pay him based on his overall performance.

If Dawson Mercer wanted a bigger contract he shouldn't have shit the bed in a contract year.

 

[JimEIV]

If Dawson Mercer wanted a bigger contract he shouldn't have shit the bed in a contract year.

He really didn't though he performed exactly like his linemates in their given role...

LW Palat 31 points
C Haula 35 points
RW Mercer 33 points

Burry him in the bottom 6 and you get bottom 6 production...I think I read recently average 3rd line production is 32 points....oh look at that.

 

[dgibb10]

He really didn't though he performed exactly like his linemates in their given role...

LW Palat 31 points
C Haula 35 points
RW Mercer 33 points

Burry him in the bottom 6 and you get bottom 6 production...I think I read recently average 3rd line production is 32 points....oh look at that.

Dawson mercer got 17 minutes a night.

I wouldn't pay Haula or Palat 7 million dollars a year either, hope this helps.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

He really didn't though he performed exactly like his linemates in their given role...

LW Palat 31 points
C Haula 35 points
RW Mercer 33 points

Burry him in the bottom 6 and you get bottom 6 production...I think I read recently average 3rd line production is 32 points....oh look at that.

He was absolutely horrendous and significantly worse than both Haula and Palat.

 

[JimEIV]

Dawson mercer got 17 minutes a night.

I wouldn't pay Haula or Palat 7 million dollars a year either, hope this helps.

Nearly 2 minutes of it was on the PK. The 10th best PK in the league.

But you would pay Palat 6?

 

[JimEIV]

He was absolutely horrendous and significantly worse than both Haula and Palat.

Not offensively...and I would think any 22 year old is going to be worse defensively than two players a decade older than him.

 

[NJDevilsFan21]

It's awesome that Mercer played all 82 games each season, but the guy is allergic to contact. The puck will be off his stick before it's even remotely possible to legally contact him. I mean really, how often have you seen Mercer dangling or skating around anyone? And I'm not even talking Jack or Bratt, but guys like Haula and Palat do the dirty work and have more posession time in the corners or along the boards.

Mercer is a good support player, but I don't think he's the type of player this team needs. So in that case we should either be bridging, looking for a good long term value, or thinking about moving on considering his value is still pretty high.

 

[dgibb10]

Nearly 2 minutes of it was on the PK. The 10th best PK in the league.

But you would pay Palat 6?

No, if Palat hit the market I would also not offer him 6.

And I'd offer him even less if he had no arbitration rights and wasn't able to be a UFA for another 4 years.

 

[Oneiro]

Trying to argue he’s been better than Bratt on his ELC and then arguing he needs top 6 minutes to produce is an oxymoron. His rookie season was better…because he was dependent on Bratt, a player who’s never needed anyone else to get going.

His development stalling out last season is a big reason this team is still looking for wingers. And he’s so much softer than he should be considering his style of play. I trust that all of it will improve but he sucked last year in every aspect. And he’ll likely never be the player that Bratt or even Nico is.

We all know why the jocksniffing goes on and that’s because of his play style being perceived as a “winning” style, nevermind the two best playoff performers of the last decade in Kane and Kucherov are no defense playmaking wings.

I like him a lot and think he’ll get much better and it would take a great player to put him in a deal but his last season was very disappointing. He’s much more of a passenger than he should be.

 

[None Shall Pass]

We’re currently in a position where we should be adding another forward but can’t because of the cap.

Yeah I should've added a /s or something. I read way too many people saying that the salary cap isn't real or doesn't matter over the past few years for me to do anything but goof on it now that it is actually impacting us.

 

[JimEIV]

Trying to argue he’s been better than Bratt on his ELC and then arguing he needs top 6 minutes to produce is an oxymoron.

It's not contradictory at all. First, he was clearly better than Bratt on his ELC.
Second Bratt was never buried in the bottom 6 for a full season...and Mercer still managed 33 points which is pretty much all Bratt managed to produce in any of his first 3 seasons...

How is Mercer going to maximize points when one of his most common linemates went around 25 games with a goal this season? Gee I wonder why he had a career low 13 assist this year?

Mercer's production was right in line for a 3rd liner.

 

[NJDevilsFan21]

Also our PK also wasn't good because of Mercer. Honestly, I don't know how anyone could think his whole "I'm just going to hold my stick out with one hand blocking some imaginary passing lanes" was useful. That's literally all he ever did on the PK. He was not good at applying any real pressure. He's no Nico or even close to it on defense. But he probably could be if he was just willing to engage in contact (and probably some pain to go with it). Every other bench shot of Nico was of him grimacing, whereas with Mercer it's him laughing.

It's amazing our PK finished as high as it did, and I think it was some kind of anomaly all things else considered.

 

[dgibb10]

Also our PK also wasn't good because of Mercer. Honestly, I don't know how anyone could think his whole "I'm just going to hold my stick out with one hand blocking some imaginary passing lanes" was useful. That's literally all he ever did on the PK. He was not good at applying any real pressure. He's no Nico or even close to it on defense. But he probably could be if he was just willing to engage in contact (and probably some pain to go with it).

It's amazing our PK finished as high as it did, and I think it was some kind of anomaly all things else considered.

We're going to miss Brendan Smith on the PK a lot. He was a legitimately elite PK guy.