Devils team discussion (news, notes and speculation) - offseason part III

[JimEIV]

And then as Mercer's agent I want to talk about how he was tied for 2nd in playoff scoring in 2023...and currently has more playoff goals as a New Jersey Devils than Meier, Nico or Bratt.

Pay the man!

 

[Triumph]

A 3 year bridge would be ideal for Mercer, means that his contract would be up at the same time as Nico's, but things are shaping up pretty rough in 2026-27 with Nemec needing a new contract, plus the final year of Noesen, Dillon, and Palat.

 

[Edmonton East]

That's what Shane Pinto just got and Mercer is a better player that has accomplished much , much more.

Updated my post btw.

Shane Pinto has actually played C in the NHL, materially more than Mercer. Positional premium offsets production variance. And Mercer hasn't accomplished much more. That's just ridiculous. Pinto was the better player in the most recent season for fsake. Not saying he is better though, to be clear.

 

[JimEIV]

Updated my post btw.

Shane Pinto has actually played C in the NHL, materially more than Mercer. Positional premium offsets production variance. And Mercer hasn't accomplished much more. That's just ridiculous. Pinto was the better player in the most recent season for fsake. Not saying he is better though, to be clear.

Pinto played half a season after being suspended for unethical behavior....how the hell are you going to compare that that to Dawson Mercer?

 

[Hisch13r]

A 3 year bridge would be ideal for Mercer, means that his contract would be up at the same time as Nico's, but things are shaping up pretty rough in 2026-27 with Nemec needing a new contract, plus the final year of Noesen, Dillon, and Palat.

Hopefully Silayev’s ready to go in 2 years and you can dump off that final Dillon year. Palat probably a buyout.

 

[Edmonton East]

Pinto played half a season after being suspended for unethical behavior....how the hell are you going to compare that that to Dawson Mercer?

1) YOU first compared Mercer and Pinto.
2) It was a gambling violation. Laughably naive to think that would impact contract negotiations if a team likes a young player. Stupid 1 time event and move on...if team didn't think that was the case, they wouldn't have signed him period. So it's irrelevant in the comparison.

 

[dgibb10]

If I am Mercer's agent I'm not looking for him to prove anything...I want fair market value... nothing more or nothing less.

I am certainly not entertaining any discussion of "prove it"...not after, the team went from 291 goals for to 264 and Nico saw a 13 point drop, Jack saw a 25 point drop...and Dougie... Meier...ect..

Nope, I shut down that conversation of "prove it" real fast

Mercer does have to prove it.

He was among our WORST forwards last year.

 

[JimEIV]

1) YOU first compared Mercer and Pinto.
2) It was a gambling violation. Laughably naive to think that would impact contract negotiations if a team likes a young player. Stupid 1 time event and move on...if team didn't think that was the case, they wouldn't have signed him period. So it's irrelevant in the comparison.

You compared the seasons...a 41 game suspension is not trivial. That's one of the longest suspensions in the modern era.

So the league was rebuking the behavior pretty unequivocally....there is nothing naive or trivial about that.

 

[bossram]

It's 2% of the cap for someone who filled a top-6 role on this team 2 years ago. That's essentially in-line with what he was paid last year. It only seems absurd because you're not used to cap hits going up after the last few years.

That is a value contract if he plays in the middle six all year, and comparable with what many 4th liners got this offseason. Compare this to the cap hits MacDermid and Bastian have and the expected impact of those players vs. Tatar.

Mercer is coming off his ELC and has no Arb rights. His only leverage is the threat of an offer sheet (which GMs don't do) the threat of holding out (which players don't do), or giving up UFA years. If he's not doing any of those 3, he's not getting paid what you perceive to be "fair market value" because it is by definition not a fair market.

RFA negotiations are much closer to a legal proceeding than an open negotiation (UFA). I've participated in quite a few negotiations guided by legal proceedings and while both sides may use "arguments" to convey the numbers, both know those are just words thinly veiling an agreement of a number that both sides already worked out with math before exchanging any numbers.

100% on all accounts. The Tatar deal is more than fair for a guy who will be a middle-six contributor. The UFA contracts some other middle-six players got are...far larger.

On Mercer, again, totally agree. Pretty much all RFA negotiations are pretty mechanical. Everyone knows the deal they'll settle on. The comparables are all well established. The posturing is just to look like a "tough" negotiator and haggle over maybe $100-$200K.

They'll settle on a bridge deal. 2 year deal in the area of $3M per, or a 3 year deal in the area of $3.5M per.

 

[JimEIV]

They'll settle on a bridge deal. 2 year deal in the area of $3M per, or a 3 year deal in the area of $3.5M per.

Both of those are less than what Shane Pinto got....the first one significantly less...that would be insanely low if it were to happen.

 

[Edmonton East]

You compared the seasons...a 41 game suspension is not trivial. That's one of the longest suspensions in the modern era.

So the league was rebuking the behavior pretty unequivocally....there is nothing naive or trivial about that.

c'mon man, you get what the point is. I made it clear.

You went from stating Mercer is way better than Pinto. Then ignored my point about positional value since Pinto has been used as a C materially more (and performed well). Also ignored my point about Pinto actually being the better player this past season. Not debatable if you actually watched the two and how they are used by their respective teams. Again, not saying Pinto is better. You keep acting like the Devs should ignore this trainwreck of a season, where he played like a soft low production winger. I don't think he's that. I like Mercer and Devs also need righties....but still can't ignore the most recent season entirely.

I prob missed it, but hypothetically, what do you think Mercer should be aiming for? Sounds like 3x$4.7+ or 7x$6+??

However (very) unlikely, I'd love a 6x$5. I expect 3x$4.

 

[JimEIV]

c'mon man, you get what the point is. I made it clear.

You went from stating Mercer is way better than Pinto. Then ignored my point about positional value since Pinto has been used as a C materially more (and performed well). Also ignored my point about Pinto actually being the better player this past season. Not debatable if you actually watched the two and how they are used by their respective teams. Again, not saying Pinto is better. You keep acting like the Devs should ignore this trainwreck of a season, where he played like a soft low production winger. I don't think he's that. I like Mercer and Devs also need righties....but still can't ignore the most recent season entirely.

I prob missed it, but hypothetically, what do you think Mercer should be aiming for? Sounds like 3x$4.7+ or 7x$6+??

However (very) unlikely, I'd love a 6x$5. I expect 3x$4.

6 years is an impossibility because of the cap...but 6 years I think his value is 6-7 million per.

I posted twice already I think his value is ~ 3 years - 14 million. Give or take a little.

Pretty much in line with the bolded part

 

[Edmonton East]

6 years is an impossibility because of the cap...but 6 years I think his value is 6-7 million per.

I posted twice already I think his value is ~ 3 years - 14 million.

Hence I said $4.7; was mainly curious about getting the longer term. You are materially overvaluing him imo.

 

[New Jersey Devils]

Man what a presser from Tatar. I’m officially a Tomas Stan account.

 

[JimEIV]

Hence I said $4.7; was mainly curious about getting the longer term. You are materially overvaluing him imo.

I don't think I am overvaluing him at all. I've seen projections of Mercer being worth 4.5 on a short term deal 6.5-7 on a long term. I think it's very reasonable in this environment.

 

[My3Sons]

Mercer does have to prove it.

He was among our WORST forwards last year.

Sure but the team isn’t going to say anything like that to him and I’m sure there are just as many voices internally reminding the prove it crowd that he is still pretty young. In another life he just graduated from college. These are the normal ups and downs of all but the most elite young players.

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

Anton Lundell just got $5 million/year for 6 years, was in the same exact draft class as Mercer, and has nearly the same exact points/game in the league. Plus he is an actual center. Plus he just had 17 pts in 24 games on the way to a Cup.

in no world is Mercer touching $7 million/year on a 6 year deal. Again, there is literally no basis for that.

 

[JimEIV]

Sure but the team isn’t going to say anything like that to him and I’m sure there are just as many voices internally reminding the prove it crowd that he is still pretty young. In another life he just graduated from college. These are the normal ups and downs of all but the most elite young players.

Even the elite go through ups and downs...

But if I'm in Mercer's camp I'm terrified of a two or three year deal... especially a discounted one...have my contract come due after Luke and Nemec get paid? You don't have to have a crystal ball to see the long implications for his next deal.

 

[dgibb10]

Anton Lundell just got $5 million/year for 6 years, was in the same exact draft class as Mercer, and has nearly the same exact points/game in the league. Plus he is an actual center. Plus he just had 17 pts in 24 games on the way to a Cup.

in no world is Mercer touching $7 million/year on a 6 year deal. Again, there is literally no basis for that.

Dylan Cozens and Matt Boldy got 7 lmao. Mercer is 100% a tier below that

 

[Better Call Sal]

Man what a presser from Tatar. I’m officially a Tomas Stan account.

He rules. Always has. Could not be happier to have him back, and I think he'll be a boost to the room. Seems he's really tight with a lot of the guys if he remained in touch with them the entire time he was away last year.

 

[bossram]

Both of those are less than what Shane Pinto got....the first one significantly less...that would be insanely low if it were to happen.

Pinto is on the higher end of the relevant comparables. I think Ottawa lost the haggling on that one.

But he is coming off a better platform year, which matters. 0.65 points-per-game, with better underlying numbers. As others mentioned, there is also the positional premium. He is a full-time center and Mercer is really not.

But then you have guys like
- Roope Hintz was at $3.15 x 3 post-ELC. Roughly 0.55 PPG platform year.
- Burakovsky was at $3M x 2 with a slightly lower career PPG post-ELC.
- Buchnevich on a somewhat similar ELC trajectory was $3.25 x 2, though with a better platform year.
- Robert Thomas had a much poorer platform year compared to the rest of his ELC and got ground down to a $2.8M x 2.
- Maccelli has a stronger ELC scoring profile than Mercer and got a $3.425 x 3.
- Bratt had a slightly worse ELC scoring profile and landed on $2.75 x 2.

Pinto looks like the absolute high-end of the comparables.

 

[JimEIV]

Dylan Cozens and Matt Boldy got 7 lmao. Mercer is 100% a tier below that

AFP Analytics
$4.32M for 2 years on a bridge deal $6.69M 6 years

 

[Andre Palot]

2 to 3 years at either 4.5 or 5 million per is what Mercer is worth right now. If in some bonkers world he thinks he is worth 7 million a year, Fitz should trade him for whatever the best package is ASAP.

 

[AfroThunder396]

Mercer's UFA season is 2028, so anything over 4 years is buying UFA years. That's the primary reason that bridge deals are cheaper.

 

[My3Sons]

Even the elite go through ups and downs...

But if I'm in Mercer's camp I'm terrified of a two or three year deal... especially a discounted one...have my contract come due after Luke and Nemec get paid? You don't have to have a crystal ball to see the long implications for his next deal.

They aren't going to give him a four year deal and would have to do some cap gymnastics to open up the space to sign him for 6 or 7. My guess is that they go for a three year deal to give Dawson the ability to focus on hockey for a couple of years without worrying about a contract. Frankly, if it was my choice and I had to open up cap space I'd try to do that if it meant getting him locked up long term.