Devils team discussion (news, notes and speculation) - offseason part I

[Rhodes 81]

I like Stephenson a lot, but I fear he's going to get seriously overpaid. He did not look great for large stretches of this year.

 

[dgibb10]

that can't be right, can it? holy shit

JFC that is horrid. The fact that both Haula and Palat finished the season on a stretch of likely 50 PP minutes without a single point makes me think we need another top6 winger who can actually generate offense

I knew it was bad but I did not realize it was 2 goals in 62 games bad after hamilton went down.

I think Luke would be better suited to carry PP2 on entries instead of him being relegated to a drop pass role on PP1 (He should have been given more reign to attempt entries himself much more often instead of the drop pass to keep the defense guessing)

 

[Forge]

I like Stephenson a lot, but I fear he's going to get seriously overpaid. He did not look great for large stretches of this year.

Generally not a fan of signing free agents who are already in their 30s, tbh.

I get that sometimes its a necessary evil, but I think that's going to be bad more often than good, especially when those deals run for 5 years.

 

[Guttersniped]

I think every offseason I end up picking a guy or two in my head that aren’t on PP1 and go “they should spend all offseason practicing being the net front guy on the PP”.

Anyone that got really good at it will be able to become a PP carrion, feasting on points generated by the other talented guys on PP1.

Foote, Bastian, Timo, and Nico all should have a thought about it.

Obviously Timo and Nico could have other roles on PP1 but Timo has to fight some other good wingers and Nico keeps getting stuck as the useless player in the slot that will never get the puck.

Foote and Bastian getting good at it would solidify their chances to stay in the NHL and make them probably a few million more dollars in their career.

Then every year nobody seems to have focused on it and the Devils have to make due with what they have.

——————-

Alternatively, PPs without a net front guy but with a behind the net guy instead are gaining in some popularity. With the Devils personnel, they may want to look into something more along those lines rather than a traditional umbrella setup.

If Nolan Foote can stay healthy and do it, god bless him, but let’s see if he can skate without injuring himself first.

Nico muddles through but I like him more behind the net, which we stopped doing later in the year for some reason.

Going by his 22-23 Sharks goal video, it seemed liked Hertl was the net front guy on their PP but Timo had more tip-in goals for them last year.

NHL.com has goals by shot types. The spoilers below have perhaps too much of an info dump lol, I’m blaming insomnia, but I’m leaving it.

My point of all the stuff below is productive dirty goal scorers are actually pretty rare yet top teams usually have a few.

Spoiler: Total Tip-In Goals in 22-23/23-24 by Forwards

Tip-In Goals breakdown among forwards 22-24:
1: 25
2: 20
3-4 (2): 19
5: 17
6: 16
7-8 (2): 15
9-11 (3): 14
12-15 (3): 13
16-18 (3): 12
19-22 (4): 11
23-28 (6): 10
29-33 (5): 9
34-41 (8): 8
42-60 (19): 7
61-81 (21): 6
82-113 (32): 5
114-162 (49): 4
163-247 (85): 3
248-335 (88): 2
336-441 (106): 1

Spoiler: Shooting % of top 60 listed

Spoiler: Devils Forwards Tip-In goals 22-24

Spoiler: Tip-In goals for 23 & 24 playoffs

Guys with at least 2:


Where these 18 rank in the regular season list:
1) Krieder #1: 25 G w/ 128 Tip Shots in 161 GP
-
2) Stone: 1 G w/ 19 Tip S in 99 GP
-
3) Lehkonen #45: 7 G w/ 43 Tip S in 109 GP
-
4) Seguin: 4 G w/ 30 Tip S in 140 GP
-
5) Matthews #60: 7 G w/ 61 Tip S in 155 GP
6) DeBrusk #42: 7 G w/ 44 Tip S in 144 GP
7) Boeser #13: 13 G w/ 50 Tip S in 155 GP
8) Rantanen #7: 15 G w/ 71 Tip S in 162 GP
9) Bertuzzi #44: 7 G w/ 43 Tip S in 130 GP
10) Verhaeghe: 3 G w/ 20 Tip S in 157 GP
11) Guentzel #20: 11 G w/ 86 Tip S in 145 GP
12) Goodrow: 4 G w/ 14 Tip S in 162 GP
13) Noesen #48: 7 G w/ 39 Tip S in 159 GP
14) Trocheck #49: 7 G w/ 63 Tip S in 164 GP
15) Hyman #2: 20 G w/ 84 Tip S in 159 GP
16) Schwartz #39: 8 G w/ 40 Tip S in 133 GP
17) Stastny: 1 G w/ 12 Tip S in 73 GP
18) Pavelski #4: 19 G w/ 77 Tip S in 164 GP

The have a separate Deflection goal category, there’s some overlap even if these seem more random.

Spoiler: Total Deflection Goals in 22-23/23-24 by Forwards

Deflection goal breakdown among forwards 22-24:
1-2 (2): 5
3-12 (10): 4
13-38 (26): 3
39-101 (63): 2
102-233 (132): 1

Spoiler: Shooting % of top 38 listed

Spoiler: NJD Forwards Deflection Goals 22-24

 

[Guadana]

Devils needs to sign 3rd line center who can play 2nd line role and defensive role.
Devils needs to sign one or two fast forecheckers who isn't dumb.
May be 4th line center too.
Devils needs to find left defenseman who can play 2nd-3rd pair role very competently as defensive D.
Devils needs at least pp coach and better to find new goalie coach.
Devils needs to sign new goalie for 1B role at least.

Big list, but most of this role cam find on the market, we should wait.

 

[theoptimist]

I like Stephenson a lot, but I fear he's going to get seriously overpaid. He did not look great for large stretches of this year.

Like Palat?

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

Devils needs to sign 3rd line center who can play 2nd line role and defensive role.
Devils needs to sign one or two fast forecheckers who isn't dumb.
May be 4th line center too.
Devils needs to find left defenseman who can play 2nd-3rd pair role very competently as defensive D.
Devils needs at least pp coach and better to find new goalie coach.
Devils needs to sign new goalie for 1B role at least.

Big list, but most of this role cam find on the market, we should wait.

Maybe he’s a cap casualty? His NTC kicks in in 25-26. They added McD’s salary and still want to bring back Stamkos. I’m sure they’ll figure it out.

 

[Nocashstyle]

Maybe he’s a cap casualty? His NTC kicks in in 25-26. They added McD’s salary and still want to bring back Stamkos. I’m sure they’ll figure it out.

Yes, please

 

[Guttersniped]

Devils needs to sign 3rd line center who can play 2nd line role and defensive role.

Good luck with that, most of the NHL would love that and if that UFA center is available he’ll be signed to be a 2C somewhere.

Centers are tough to come by. Sure wish we drafted a few more post-Jack. (Particularly one’s that didn’t suck.)

 

[My3Sons]

Good luck with that, most of the NHL would love that and if that UFA center is available he’ll be signed to be a 2C somewhere.

Centers are tough to come by. Sure wish we drafted a few more post-Jack. (Particularly one’s that didn’t suck.)

NJ does not need a 3C. Can we put that to rest already?

 

[TrufleShufle]

NJ does not need a 3C. Can we put that to rest already?

I don't understand why you are so against upgrading 3C, it seems like something that bothers you. It's really not the big of a deal and actually a good thing. If Nico is pretty good at 3C he would be more pretty good at 4C.

 

[My3Sons]

I don't understand why you are so against upgrading 3C, it seems like something that bothers you. It's really not the big of a deal and actually a good thing. If Nico is pretty good at 3C he would be more pretty good at 4C.

Everyone is so focused on 3C that they don’t notice the team has no 2C with Mercer slumping.

 

[Camille the Eel]

If Nolan Foote can stay healthy and do it, god bless him, but let’s see if he can skate without injuring himself first.

Nico muddles through but I like him more behind the net, which we stopped doing later in the year for some reason.

Going by his 22-23 Sharks goal video, it seemed liked Hertl was the net front guy on their PP but Timo had more tip-in goals for them last year.

NHL.com has goals by shot types. The spoilers below have perhaps too much of an info dump lol, I’m blaming insomnia, but I’m leaving it.

My point of all the stuff below is productive dirty goal scorers are actually pretty rare yet top teams usually have a few.

Spoiler: Total Tip-In Goals in 22-23/23-24 by Forwards

View attachment 874390View attachment 874391View attachment 874392View attachment 874393
View attachment 874394
Tip-In Goals breakdown among forwards 22-24:
1: 25
2: 20
3-4 (2): 19
5: 17
6: 16
7-8 (2): 15
9-11 (3): 14
12-15 (3): 13
16-18 (3): 12
19-22 (4): 11
23-28 (6): 10
29-33 (5): 9
34-41 (8): 8
42-60 (19): 7
61-81 (21): 6
82-113 (32): 5
114-162 (49): 4
163-247 (85): 3
248-335 (88): 2
336-441 (106): 1

Spoiler: Shooting % of top 60 listed

View attachment 874402View attachment 874403View attachment 874404View attachment 874405View attachment 874406

Spoiler: Devils Forwards Tip-In goals 22-24

View attachment 874407View attachment 874408

Spoiler: Tip-In goals for 23 & 24 playoffs

Guys with at least 2:
View attachment 874450

Where these 18 rank in the regular season list:
1) Krieder #1: 25 G w/ 128 Tip Shots in 161 GP
-
2) Stone: 1 G w/ 19 Tip S in 99 GP
-
3) Lehkonen #45: 7 G w/ 43 Tip S in 109 GP
-
4) Seguin: 4 G w/ 30 Tip S in 140 GP
-
5) Matthews #60: 7 G w/ 61 Tip S in 155 GP
6) DeBrusk #42: 7 G w/ 44 Tip S in 144 GP
7) Boeser #13: 13 G w/ 50 Tip S in 155 GP
8) Rantanen #7: 15 G w/ 71 Tip S in 162 GP
9) Bertuzzi #44: 7 G w/ 43 Tip S in 130 GP
10) Verhaeghe: 3 G w/ 20 Tip S in 157 GP
11) Guentzel #20: 11 G w/ 86 Tip S in 145 GP
12) Goodrow: 4 G w/ 14 Tip S in 162 GP
13) Noesen #48: 7 G w/ 39 Tip S in 159 GP
14) Trocheck #49: 7 G w/ 63 Tip S in 164 GP
15) Hyman #2: 20 G w/ 84 Tip S in 159 GP
16) Schwartz #39: 8 G w/ 40 Tip S in 133 GP
17) Stastny: 1 G w/ 12 Tip S in 73 GP
18) Pavelski #4: 19 G w/ 77 Tip S in 164 GP

The have a separate Deflection goal category, there’s some overlap even if these seem more random.

Spoiler: Total Deflection Goals in 22-23/23-24 by Forwards

View attachment 874413View attachment 874414View attachment 874415
Deflection goal breakdown among forwards 22-24:
1-2 (2): 5
3-12 (10): 4
13-38 (26): 3
39-101 (63): 2
102-233 (132): 1

Spoiler: Shooting % of top 38 listed

View attachment 874430View attachment 874431View attachment 874433

Spoiler: NJD Forwards Deflection Goals 22-24

View attachment 874435View attachment 874436

That 5 tips was the top number surprised me. I thought maybe Kreider had nearly that many alone against us. I wonder how they define a “deflection?”

 

[TrufleShufle]

Everyone is so focused on 3C that they don’t notice the team has no 2C with Mercer slumping.

That's a Haulava way to completely discard the stirrer.

 

[Forge]

Do you have to put 10 on the table for Tampa to move him to NJ?

 

[Nocashstyle]

I don’t know if anyone posted this, but Adidas has a sale on a Heritage Dougie Hamilton jerseys. It’s already on sale as is, then if you use the code SUMMER you get additional off. I also signed up for a free account for free shipping.

$96.60 all in, shipped. This is my first jersey since I was like 7 and just had a blank home and away. Jerseys are too expensive but this was way too good of a deal to pass up.

https://www.adidas.com/us/devils-hamilton-heritage-jersey/IM4669.html

 

[Guttersniped]

That 5 tips was the top number surprised me. I thought maybe Kreider had nearly that many alone against us. I wonder how they define a “deflection?”

I was going to get into that but that post got long and bit draining.

I searched for official definitions but no luck.

The difference is whatever you want it to be lol.

If you deflect someone else’s shot with your stick: tip-in.

This is called a tip-in.


Now ignoring that tip-ins are deflections, one can imagine deflections that aren’t tip-ins.

Such as:


Seems reasonable right?

Well the announcers are sure this Bertuzzi goal is a tip-in, because Bertuzzi’s stick seems to be involved, but nope, it’s called a deflection.

https://x.com/i/web/status/1783308397535703060

Because he’s moving? IDK.

This is also a deflection.


I would love to see the NHL’s written definition here.

 

[Devs3cups]

Stumbled upon this Nemec analysis video. Kid is going to be a stud.

 

[Its Always Sundstrom]

A good day today!

Today was a good day

 

[Guadana]

Good luck with that, most of the NHL would love that and if that UFA center is available he’ll be signed to be a 2C somewhere.

Centers are tough to come by. Sure wish we drafted a few more post-Jack. (Particularly one’s that didn’t suck.)

2nd line role as complimentary forward/2C for some time. Like Haula did. Im okay with "secoond Haula". We have Henrique on the market.

 

[Peter Sidorkiewicz]

Maybe he’s a cap casualty? His NTC kicks in in 25-26. They added McD’s salary and still want to bring back Stamkos. I’m sure they’ll figure it out.

Think he will be great with Jack Hughes. Bump Huala to 3rd line

 

[Peter Sidorkiewicz]

With Keefe now on board, goaltending should now be Fitz's number one priority to be addressed. This is my ranking on potential options available.

1a Saros/Askarov.
I get the feeling that both are still very much in play with Trotz probably being old school and wanting to re-sign Saros as he is a proven. He openly admitted to shopping Askarov at last year's draft but didnt get an offer that he liked. With our 10th overall pick, I wonder if a deal could be done for Askarov if there is a prospect available at #10 that Nashville really likes.
If Saros is the one that gets traded, then you need to immediately re-sign him long term.

1b Sorokin
I wonder if he could sneakily be available after his 'down' year after signing that big contract. Could the Islanders have some bad contract regret? They need to re-sign Noah Dobson in a year whom has developed into a stud defenseman and gonna get a monster deal. Another player I would dangle our 10th overall pick for.

1c Ullmark
Boston have made their decision that Swayman is their guy. He is going to get paid and Ullmark will be made available. He is another one that if Devils trade for him, they need to re-sign him immediately to bring stability to the position. Is Pick 10 on its own too much for Ullmark? Maybe we request Poitras or Lohrei or Merkulov to be part of the deal.

2 Stolarz/Knight
Stolarz has outstanding numbers as a backup. Could he produce the same in a time share arrangement with Jake Allen. May want to challenge himself to be a no.1 on free agency maket. Spencer Knight is rebuilding his game in AHL has a high cap hit and could be too big risk for NJ to take with a team with playoff ambitions. However with an established veteran like Jake Allen on board, NJ can be patience with a guy like Knight if they truely believe in his long term potential.

3 Kahkonen.
Small sample size but he looked good in NJ as a pairing with Jake Allen. If we miss out on an option 1 or 2 as per above, then I wouldn't mind running the pairing back which will allow us to keep our picks and trade assets. He is still young at age 27. Could we do something unusual and get a number 1, sign Kahk and carry 3 goalies?

4 Markstrom
I've come to the conclusion that Markstrom just doesn't fit in NJ's timeline with their young team. At age 34 he is too old, has a poor injury history and unless he comes really cheap, I would stay away.
The price to acquire him has to be really favorable in NJ. I think he only has one, maybe two years of good hockey left. Ideally you dont want to find yourself in the exact same position in 12 months time looking to address the goaltending situation again.

5 Schmid/Daws
Sorry no, they shouldn't be on NJ opening day roster. These two still have potential to be good NHL backups but they need more AHL development. I'm fine with either of them as a no.3 option. I could also see one of them being traded as part of the deal if we do trade for a number 1 goalie.

 

[Guadana]

With Keefe now on board, goaltending should now be Fitz's number one priority to be addressed. This is my ranking on potential options available.

1a Saros/Askarov.
I get the feeling that both are still very much in play with Trotz probably being old school and wanting to re-sign Saros as he is a proven. He openly admitted to shopping Askarov at last year's draft but didnt get an offer that he liked. With our 10th overall pick, I wonder if a deal could be done for Askarov if there is a prospect available at #10 that Nashville really likes.
If Saros is the one that gets traded, then you need to immediately re-sign him long term.

1b Sorokin
I wonder if he could sneakily be available after his 'down' year after signing that big contract. Could the Islanders have some bad contract regret? They need to re-sign Noah Dobson in a year whom has developed into a stud defenseman and gonna get a monster deal. Another player I would dangle our 10th overall pick for.

1c Ullmark
Boston have made their decision that Swayman is their guy. He is going to get paid and Ullmark will be made available. He is another one that if Devils trade for him, they need to re-sign him immediately to bring stability to the position. Is Pick 10 on its own too much for Ullmark? Maybe we request Poitras or Lohrei or Merkulov to be part of the deal.

2 Stolarz/Knight
Stolarz has outstanding numbers as a backup. Could if produce the same in a time share arrangement with Jake Allen. May want to challenge himself to be a no.1 on free agency maket. Spencer Knight is rebuilding his game in AHL has a high cap hit and could be too big risk for NJ to take with a team with playoff ambitions. However with an established veteran like Jake Allen on board, NJ can be patience with a guy like Knight if they truely believe in his long term potential.

3 Kahkonen.
Small sample size but he looked good in NJ as a pairing with Jake Allen. If we miss out on an option 1 or 2 as per above, then I wouldn't mind running the pairing back which will allow us to keep our picks and trade assets. He is still young at age 27. Could we do something unusual and get a number 1, sign Kahk and carry 3 goalies?

4 Markstrom
I've come to the conclusion that Markstrom just doesn't fit in NJ's timeline with their young team. At age 34 he is too old, has a poor injury history and unless he comes really cheap, I would stay away.
The price to acquire him has to be really favorable in NJ. I think he only has one, maybe two years of good hockey left. Ideally you dont want to find yourself in the exact same position in 12 months time looking to address the goaltending situation again.

5 Schmid/Daws
Sorry no, they shouldn't be on NJ opening day roster. These two still have potential to be good NHL backups but they need more AHL development. I'm fine with either of them as a no.3 option. I could also see one of them being traded as part of the deal if we do trade for a number 1 goalie.

Askarov will not be traded. Most likely they will sign Saros too. Or trade 30+ yo goalie for huge price. He is one year away from UFA, he is small goalie who is building his game on technique, not on positioning. Its a risk and its a bad trade.

Lou is building his team on Sorokin. Its against his vision

Knight is problematic. Stolarz... He isnt better than Kahkonen. I would add Lankinen. And other nice backup plans.

Markstrom is okay if cheap.

Schmid or Daws shouldnt be 2nd goalies for the next season.

 

[theoptimist]

Personally, I wouldn’t give up 10 for Cirelli (because I can hopefully sign Stephenson for just $$$). If we have a sense Stephenson will sign with us, then I’m tempted to just use the pick. Stephenson and Dillon might be all we need. No goalie is worth #10

 

[Guadana]

Personally, I wouldn’t give up 10 for Cirelli (because I can hopefully sign Stephenson for just $$$). If we have a sense Stephenson will sign with us, then I’m tempted to just use the pick. Stephenson and Dillon might be all we need. No goalie is worth #10

10 for Cirelli is huge overpaimant.

I would like to trade for Mikheev (half of his salary). He cant score but he is really good in doing dirty thing. Really good. But he cant score. For full salary - brutal. For half of his salary - great. (not for 10th pick of course)