Devils team discussion (news, notes and speculation) - offseason part I

[Ripshot 43]

Modeling Mercer at 4.78 million (Dobber projection) and Hatakka at $1 million we should have $22.4 million in space for next season with 11 forwards, 8 defensemen, and 1 goaltender under contract.

If for whatever we reason we wanted to trade for a guy whose name rhymes with sharner.

This assumes an $87.7 million cap.

What rhymes with Tkachuck?

 

[Triumph]

He was good with better partners. The Meier portion was interesting because he really only played with Meier in december when meier had 0 MCLs.

He had sub 40% xGoals rates with Bastian, with Tierney, 18% with willman (no idea how he spent time on an NHL roster), 43% with Nosek,

41% with Meier, but again Meier had 0 MCLs for that whole month they spent together

57.5% with Haula, 56% with Jack, 55.5% with Mcleod, 54% with bratt, 50% with Mercer. It's very clear that he needs a play driver alongside him (shocker).

Meier-Hischier-Bratt
____-Hughes-Mercer
Palat-Haula-_____

Put Holtz into either of the ____ slots where he can play alongside 2 guys who drive play better and let him get back to the magic. I think Palat+Haula would be ideal, and then go after a foegele who's speed will pair with Jack

He was half a PPG pre all star break playing 12 minutes a night with sparse PP2 time.

Don't really buy all this only because Holtz was dropped off those lines when the Devils would take a lead, so odds are his numbers look worse with the worse players in part because he's playing with those guys when the Devils are ahead, whereas he's more likely to be playing with the top guys when the Devils are behind. Palat-Haula-Holtz could work - I do not see them ever running Holtz-Hughes-Mercer to start a game (this again assuming Holtz is back, which I think is not likely).

 

[dgibb10]

Don't really buy all this only because Holtz was dropped off those lines when the Devils would take a lead, so odds are his numbers look worse with the worse players in part because he's playing with those guys when the Devils are ahead, whereas he's more likely to be playing with the top guys when the Devils are behind. Palat-Haula-Holtz could work - I do not see them ever running Holtz-Hughes-Mercer to start a game (this again assuming Holtz is back, which I think is not likely).

All of those numbers were score and venue adjusted.

 

[RNCDevil]

I want to give Holtz one last shot, if only because the way the organization treaded him in 2022 was a disgrace.

 

[Brodeur]

Re-sign Dawson Mercer - 2/3 years, ~$3.5 million per.
Sign Chandler Stephenson - 5x$5.25 million per.
Sign Adam Henrique - 3x$2.25 million per.
Sign Nick Cousins - 2x$2 million per.

Trade Alexander Holtz to Calgary for Jacob Markstrom (@ $4.25m cap hit)

That seems a little cheap for Mercer. Alex Newhook got 2.9 mil AAV on a flat cap while not putting up what Mercer did. Joel Farabee got a 6 x 5 mil AAV extension with 12.25 mil in actual dollars in the first three years.

I think Henrique can do a bit better than 2.25 mil. Calgary has their own Holtz-esque prospect in Matt Coronato, so I don't know if that's really what they'd be interested in.

 

[Forge]

Modeling Mercer at 4.78 million (Dobber projection) and Hatakka at $1 million we should have $22.4 million in space for next season with 11 forwards, 8 defensemen, and 1 goaltender under contract.

If for whatever we reason we wanted to trade for a guy whose name rhymes with sharner.

This assumes an $87.7 million cap.

Are you accounting for capfriendly already having flipped to the 24-25 season on their page? It shows we have about 18.8 million from jump for next year, before Mercer, etc

 

[NjDevsRR]

was a disgrace.

 

[Forge]

Are you accounting for capfriendly already having flipped to the 24-25 season on their page? It shows we have about 18.8 million from jump for next year, before Mercer, etc

Assume 4.8 for Mercer based on Dobber projection. That leaves 14.

Less appropriate cap hit of acquired goalie. I'm not really sure what to go with here. I think 5-6 is pretty fair to say as that covers the main 3 goalies who make sense as targets (Ullmark, Saros, Markstrom). So 8-9 left.

I'd assume Hatakka is on a two way deal, as are Daws / Schmid, so not going to worry about that too much. I think Foote maybe gets a one way deal. I'm just going to round it to 1m. 7-8 left.

Assuming that they put Lazar in the middle on the 4th line. Not sure what they want to do with the 7th D man. Don't like using that for someone caught between NHL / AHL, so I'd rather re-sign Desimone for that role if we don't acquire a better player that pushes Bahl into that role. As Desimone is the cheapest option right now, I'll do that and just round up to 1M. That's 6-7 left to play with on a roster that would look something like this?


Bratt - Nico - Timo
???? - Jack - Mercer
Palat - Haula - Holtz
Foote - Lazar - Bastian
MacDermid

Siegs - Dougie
Luke - Marino
Bahl - Nemec
Desimone

Ullmark / Saros / Markstrom
Allen

Does that sound fair?

 

[CalamityX23]

Are we really having a hard time to find wings for Jack? lol

ironic to me....

Hey now, still gotta root for the DuClair hope!

 

[RSeen]

Assume 4.8 for Mercer based on Dobber projection. That leaves 14.

Less appropriate cap hit of acquired goalie. I'm not really sure what to go with here. I think 5-6 is pretty fair to say as that covers the main 3 goalies who make sense as targets (Ullmark, Saros, Markstrom). So 8-9 left.

I'd assume Hatakka is on a two way deal, as are Daws / Schmid, so not going to worry about that too much. I think Foote maybe gets a one way deal. I'm just going to round it to 1m. 7-8 left.

Assuming that they put Lazar in the middle on the 4th line. Not sure what they want to do with the 7th D man. Don't like using that for someone caught between NHL / AHL, so I'd rather re-sign Desimone for that role if we don't acquire a better player that pushes Bahl into that role. As Desimone is the cheapest option right now, I'll do that and just round up to 1M. That's 6-7 left to play with on a roster that would look something like this?


Bratt - Nico - Timo
???? - Jack - Mercer
Palat - Haula - Holtz
Foote - Lazar - Bastian
MacDermid

Siegs - Dougie
Luke - Marino
Bahl - Nemec
Desimone

Ullmark / Saros / Markstrom
Allen

Does that sound fair?

Foote #13 forward, MacDermid #14, trade Holtz, add Trenin and Joshua/someone else

 

[Bcap88]

0 interest in Necas. Not really what we need.

A 6’2 wheeler who just scored 53 and 71 points over the last two years. 25 years of age…..seems like exactly what we would need

Price likely to high tho

 

[ChicksDigTheTrap]

Assume 4.8 for Mercer based on Dobber projection. That leaves 14.

Less appropriate cap hit of acquired goalie. I'm not really sure what to go with here. I think 5-6 is pretty fair to say as that covers the main 3 goalies who make sense as targets (Ullmark, Saros, Markstrom). So 8-9 left.

I'd assume Hatakka is on a two way deal, as are Daws / Schmid, so not going to worry about that too much. I think Foote maybe gets a one way deal. I'm just going to round it to 1m. 7-8 left.

Assuming that they put Lazar in the middle on the 4th line. Not sure what they want to do with the 7th D man. Don't like using that for someone caught between NHL / AHL, so I'd rather re-sign Desimone for that role if we don't acquire a better player that pushes Bahl into that role. As Desimone is the cheapest option right now, I'll do that and just round up to 1M. That's 6-7 left to play with on a roster that would look something like this?


Bratt - Nico - Timo
???? - Jack - Mercer
Palat - Haula - Holtz
Foote - Lazar - Bastian
MacDermid

Siegs - Dougie
Luke - Marino
Bahl - Nemec
Desimone

Ullmark / Saros / Markstrom
Allen

Does that sound fair?

This really shows that the Devils need a C this offseason. For me that is right after G. I would much rather have Haula start the season as a W and be the person that moves to C at the first injury.

 

[Triumph]

All of those numbers were score and venue adjusted.

That's not much of a response. Yes, this removes the bias of Holtz potentially playing more when trailing, in general, but score-adjusted results don't matter if the player is playing substantially less with group X in a given game state - it's not going to capture the fact that Holtz might have different linemates.

 

[TheUnseenHand]

A 6’2 wheeler who just scored 53 and 71 points over the last two years. 25 years of age…..seems like exactly what we would need

Price likely to high tho

Ugh he would be so awesome here.

 

[Alex NJD]

Since some people are kind of on the topic of production with different linemates

Am I the only one who thinks Meier and Mercer have very little to no chemistry despite consistently playing together? I think they were each others most common linemates.

 

[Stephen Gionta]

We are not trading Holtz for the old body of markstrom

your right calgary would never do that trade.

Yeah.... If anything the Devils would have to add to Holtz to facilitate the trade. But I do think there is a chance Calgary would consider it 1 for 1.

Assume 4.8 for Mercer based on Dobber projection. That leaves 14.

Less appropriate cap hit of acquired goalie. I'm not really sure what to go with here. I think 5-6 is pretty fair to say as that covers the main 3 goalies who make sense as targets (Ullmark, Saros, Markstrom). So 8-9 left.

I'd assume Hatakka is on a two way deal, as are Daws / Schmid, so not going to worry about that too much. I think Foote maybe gets a one way deal. I'm just going to round it to 1m. 7-8 left.

Assuming that they put Lazar in the middle on the 4th line. Not sure what they want to do with the 7th D man. Don't like using that for someone caught between NHL / AHL, so I'd rather re-sign Desimone for that role if we don't acquire a better player that pushes Bahl into that role. As Desimone is the cheapest option right now, I'll do that and just round up to 1M. That's 6-7 left to play with on a roster that would look something like this?


Bratt - Nico - Timo
???? - Jack - Mercer
Palat - Haula - Holtz
Foote - Lazar - Bastian
MacDermid

Siegs - Dougie
Luke - Marino
Bahl - Nemec
Desimone

Ullmark / Saros / Markstrom
Allen

Does that sound fair?

Hatakka is no longer waiver exempt. So unless the Devils want to risk losing him for nothing, he will likely be on the big club. 1way vs 2way deal really has zero significance here from a cap management perspective. His salary will be low enough to be able to be fully buried in the minors regardless of whether it's a 1way or 2way, should he not make the New Jersey roster. He would just be getting paid his NHL salary while playing in the AHL if it's 1 way.

 

[Forge]

Yeah.... If anything the Devils would have to add to Holtz to facilitate the trade. But I do think there is a chance Calgary would consider it 1 for 1.



Hatakka is no longer waiver exempt. So unless the Devils want to risk losing him for nothing, he will likely be on the big club. 1way vs 2way deal really has zero significance here from a cap management perspective. His salary will be low enough to be able to be fully buried in the minors regardless of whether it's a 1way or 2way, should he not make the New Jersey roster. He would just be getting paid his NHL salary while playing in the AHL if it's 1 way.

I forgot that the cap hit would just be buried, so you're right.

I don't anticipate him on the big club next year at this moment, but the waiver status may dictate that for them. Hate to make him sit as a 7th d for long stretches though

Since some people are kind of on the topic of production with different linemates

Am I the only one who thinks Meier and Mercer have very little to no chemistry despite consistently playing together? I think they were each others most common linemates.

NGL, I'm throwing out everything that involved Timo last year. Too much likely impacted by injury

 

[Comparison Ford]

is duclair a ufa? i think he would be a great pickup for us

 

[Blackjack]

Are you accounting for capfriendly already having flipped to the 24-25 season on their page? It shows we have about 18.8 million from jump for next year, before Mercer, etc

Ugh, no I had an error in my model. Corrected it now and with Mercer there’s only $13.5 left with the aforementioned eleven forwards, eight defensemen, and one goalie.

Not really enough to bring in a huge contract like Marner’s unless something sizeable also leaves.

 

[Mr Bojanglez]

is duclair a ufa? i think he would be a great pickup for us

he is indeed. Not sure how I feel about it. I guess i wouldn't be mad about it. He was on a tear after his trade to Florida.

 

[Guttersniped]

I got a feeling that Nichuskin will be banished like the Sharks did to Evander Kane.

I don't know how they'll do it or the legalities of it, but I think it's most definitely obvious they will. I'm sure a lot of the players are pissed after him abruptly getting popped in the middle of a second round playoff series like that.

Now Landeskog.....What is up with him? Will he finally be healthy and play next year after missing TWO FULL SEASONS in a row? Or is at the point where he's just done?

In mid-March Ladeskog was reported to maybe make it back for these playoffs at some point.

Landeskog could return for Avalanche in Stanley Cup Playoffs | NHL.com

Colorado captain has not played since 2022 Final; O’Connor to have hip surgery, out rest of season

www.nhl.com

Then in mid-April Ladeskog was watching practices from the bench and not close to joining them.

Landeskog watches practice, but return 'not close'

Avalanche captain Gabriel Landeskog, who is missing his second straight season after having knee surgery, watched practice from the bench Tuesday but is "not close" to being a participant, coach Jared Bednar said.

www.espn.com

Will he play next year? Who knows, it sounds possible I guess but I’m not exactly holding my breath.

Obviously if they can dump Nichushkin’s contract for being a bad boy they won’t move Colton.

 

[My3Sons]

In mid-March Ladeskog was reported to maybe make it back for these playoffs at some point.

Landeskog could return for Avalanche in Stanley Cup Playoffs | NHL.com

Colorado captain has not played since 2022 Final; O’Connor to have hip surgery, out rest of season

www.nhl.com

Then in mid-April Ladeskog was watching practices from the bench and not close to joining them.

Landeskog watches practice, but return 'not close'

Avalanche captain Gabriel Landeskog, who is missing his second straight season after having knee surgery, watched practice from the bench Tuesday but is "not close" to being a participant, coach Jared Bednar said.

www.espn.com

Will he play next year? Who knows, it sounds possible I guess but I’m not exactly holding my breath.

Obviously if they can dump Nichushkin’s contract for being a bad boy they won’t move Colton.

Hard to see Landeskog being fit for a full season on what has to be a pretty degenerated knee at this point.

 

[Bcap88]

I want nothing to do with Henrique

 

[My3Sons]

I want nothing to do with Henrique

That’s a shame because he keeps telling me how much he loves you.

 

[KillerMillerTime]

Extended Ullmark for Mercer interest anyone?