Devils team discussion (news, notes and speculation) - camp edition

[Moist ReadOnly]

Tomas Tatar has absolutely nothing to do with Dawson Mercer

I don't know why these things keep getting conflated

I also have no interest in signing Mercer for 8 years.

Theyre both contracts on the team, and Tatar was the last signing; its not conflated, its actually significantly related

It not only showed they had no intent of long-term this year, but also signified they wanted the depth instead

 

[Devs3cups]

Speaking of Tatar, he could bring some needed secondary scoring. Hopefully that chemistry pays off!

 

[Billdo]

Theyre both contracts on the team, and Tatar was the last signing; its not conflated, its actually significantly related

It not only showed they had no intent of long-term this year, but also signified they wanted the depth instead

They also couldn't get him long term, nor should they, without moving a contract iirc.

 

[JimEIV]

Im including into that what I feel I can afford him; models may say otherwise but I think he recognizes his role here and what he can do for a competitive team, taking money off and youll be 29-31 at the end of it (depending how long)

It's really all a moot point... they don't have the space to sign him to any long term deal and won't for a couple of years....

The crap part for Dawson is watching the organization hand out contracts like candy for the last 3 or 4 years and now looking for him to be the cost savings for the next set of trick or treaters coming up.

 

[Moist ReadOnly]

They also couldn't get him long term, nor should they, without moving a contract iirc.

If they hadnt signed Tatar they could have fit Mercer at a value no higher than 6

If thats what Dawson takes, I dont know; but technically speaking, the last deal to be signed was Tatar thus blocking any avenue of a long-term deal

And I agree, to an extent - Dawson is as good a candidate to have a bounce back year and improve further, hes worth the deal now but I dont think its a loss if we give him 1-2 years for now

It's really all a moot point...the don't have the space to sign him to any long term term deal and won't for a couple of years....

The crap part for Dawson is watching the organization hand out contracts like candy for the last 3 or 4 years and now looking for him to be the cost savings for the next set of trick or treaters coming up

Its cost savings on every deal though

Jack, Jesper, and Nico are obvious. Luke and Simon likely wont come in above 9 when they easily could. Timo was a different situation so 8.8 is probably fair value, with seasons of being underpaid. Dougie at 9 was UFA and only three years left

Heck, even our future starter Nico Daws wont cost anything for a long while. Silayev is years away.

Its really just Luke and Simon to be paid big deals going forward. And Dawson, with vast opportunity, didnt capitalize last season

Edit: and a new deal for Mr Captain, but again I dont see a large contract - maybe 9-9.5 when the cap is 20million higher?

 

[Xirik]

If Mercer had a good year last season would his contract be in the Lucas Raymond range?

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

It's really all a moot point... they don't have the space to sign him to any long term deal and won't for a couple of years....

The crap part for Dawson is watching the organization hand out contracts like candy for the last 3 or 4 years and now looking for him to be the cost savings for the next set of trick or treaters coming up.

the players that got big contracts were all star players or ascending star players. Mercer isnt that.

if he wanted a big contract, he should have played better over the last ~100 games.

 

[glenwo2]

Pretty random, but cool to see Bratt in the top 10 left wingers in NHL 25!

That trip to the Allstar game got him the exposure necessary to be featured, imo.

 

[JimEIV]

If they hadnt signed Tatar they could have fit Mercer at a value no higher than 6

If thats what Dawson takes, I dont know; but technically speaking, the last deal to be signed was Tatar thus blocking any avenue of a long-term deal

And I agree, to an extent - Dawson is as good a candidate to have a bounce back year and improve further, hes worth the deal now but I dont think its a loss if we give him 1-2 years for now


Its cost savings on every deal though

Jack, Jesper, and Nico are obvious. Luke and Simon likely wont come in above 9 when they easily could. Timo was a different situation so 8.8 is probably fair value, with seasons of being underpaid

Heck, even our future starter Nico Daws wont cost anything for a long while. Silayev is years away.

Its really just Luke and Simon to be paid big deals going forward. And Dawson, with vast opportunity, didnt capitalize last season

Giving Dawson a 1 or 2 year deal isn't a loss for the organization, it's certainly is a loss for him though.

Let's not get into the opportunity thing... I'm not sure "vast opportunity" could be had in the bottom 6 and PKing?

Dawson's 144 minutes on PK this season is a few minutes shy of Nico's first 3 years combined on the PK.... I guess he had vast opportunity to score shorthanded goals?

 

[Moist ReadOnly]

Giving Dawson a 1 or 2 year deal isn't a loss for the organization, it's certainly is a loss for him though.

Let's not get into the opportunity thing... I'm not sure "vast opportunity" could be had in the bottom 6 and PKing?

Dawson's 144 minutes on PK this season is a few minutes shy of Nico's first 3 years combined on the PK.... I guess he had vast opportunity to score shorthanded goals?

One could argue its not a loss for him, barring injury or him not managing to recover from his down season

He makes 3-4 for a year or two, then signs a 6-7m deal after if he produces well? He makes more money now versus when hes in his 30s, where he would hit free agency later and lose some

 

[NJDevs26]

Its not allowed per the CBA, hence it was hush-hush

Teams are not permitted to promise future earnings or make payments in other ways, in a manner that would influence a contract's negotiation

What can be done is discussing making less now so the team can save cap space - what was done was a step further and promised future earnings to make up for this

Implicitness doesnt change the loophole it is, in fact, using - its allowed because the internal investigation would be a he-said/she-said and lead nowhere

San Jose was not allowed to promise future earnings in return for saving cap space at the time. It can be expected (by the player, expecting goodwill) but cannot be discussed

Well technically it's not allowed but how would something like that ever get proven unless someone's stupid and leaves a paper trail?

 

[Moist ReadOnly]

No technically it's not allowed but how would something like that get proven unless someone's stupid and leaves a paper trail

Thats exactly the issue

though I think there is an argument that can be made involving today's network of information and news reporting and how that should affect such investigations (including tampering)

But I doubt anything ever changes on that front - nor do we see it often enough to matter (that we hear about)

 

[JimEIV]

One could argue its not a loss for him, barring injury or him not managing to recover from his down season

He makes 3-4 for a year or two, then signs a 6-7m deal after if he produces well? He makes more money now versus when hes in his 30s, where he would hit free agency later and lose some

He losses about 4 to 6 million dollars if signs for 3 or 4 now as opposed to 6 for 6 now...

And that's the other thing, in two years if he produces, then we're talking about 8 million per, which absolutely won't be there after Luke and Nemec sign deals. Mercer should be looking to get as much as he can for as long as he can right now.

 

[Saugus]

Man, I totally forgot we signed Noesen until I saw his name on the previous page.

It’s been a long summer.

 

[Moist ReadOnly]

He losses about 4 to 6 million dollars if signs for 3 or 4 now as opposed to 6 for 6 now...

And that's the other thing, in two years if he produces, then we're talking about 8 million per, which absolutely won't be there after Luke and Nemec sign deals. Mercer should be looking to get as much as he can for as long as he can right now.

He doesnt lose that, he gains that

Just for arguments sake he signs for 3 per for two years. Then 6x6. Hed be making an extra 6 total before the end of his long-term deal, from the shorter deal

He gets to free agency later but he makes more income prior to needing to hit UFA.

You could also argue him waiting one to two years increases his AAV by virtue of cap inflation. The major downside for him in this is hitting UFA later

 

[TrufleShufle]

Man, I totally forgot we signed Noesen until I saw his name on the previous page.

It’s been a long summer.

Yea at this point I feel like there is going to be a lot of "who's tha... oh shit I completely forgot about him" this preseason.

 

[TheUnseenHand]

I'm happy Tatar is back. That guy brought 100% every shift. I seriously underestimated his all around game prior to his first stint here. He's a great role model. Lunch pail kinda guy where I originally thought he was a perimeter floater kinda player. I wish we got the regular season out of Palat that we got out of Tatar when he was here. Hoping he can reignite that game playing with his buds. Nothing wrong with the signing.

 

[Moist ReadOnly]

I'm happy Tatar is back. That guy brought 100% every shift. I seriously underestimated his all around game prior to his first stint here. He's a great role model. Lunch pail kinda guy where I originally thought he was a perimeter floater kinda player. I wish we got the regular season out of Palat that we got out of Tatar when he was here. Hoping he can reignite that game playing with his buds. Nothing wrong with the signing.

Well said - I expect Palat to play well

 

[JimEIV]

He doesnt lose that, he gains that

Just for arguments sake he signs for 3 per for two years. Then 6x6. Hed be making an extra 6 total before the end of his long-term deal, from the shorter deal

He gets to free agency later but he makes more income prior to needing to hit UFA.

You could also argue him waiting one to two years increases his AAV by virtue of cap inflation. The major downside for him in this is hitting UFA later

That 3 for 2 then 6 for 6 years is 42 over 8 years

As opposed to 36 over 6 years. That is not a gain, it is a loss.
42/8= 5.25
36/6 = 6

5.25 over the first 6 years of the deal is 31.5 paid out... That's a 4.5 million dollar loss to the 6x6 up front and giving up 2 UFA years for what amounts to be 5.25 per.

That's a terrible deal for Mercer.

 

[Moist ReadOnly]

That 3 for 2 then 6 for 6 years is 42 over 8 years

As opposed to 36 over 6 years. That is not a gain, it is a loss.
42/8= 5.25
36/6 = 6

5.25 over the first 6 years of the deal is 31.5 paid out... That's a 4.5 million dollar loss and giving up 2 UFA years for what amounts to 5.25 per.

Im sorry what lol

6x6 is 36mil. Youre paying him 36mil in your scenario before he can become a UFA.

My scenario is adding 3x2 for an six extra million, plus the 6x6 deal before he hits UFA.

Thats all Im saying

"A bird in hand is worth two in the bush"

 

[JimEIV]

Im sorry what lol

6x6 is 36mil. Youre paying him 36mil in your scenario before he can become a UFA.

My scenario is adding 3x2 for an six extra million, plus the 6x6 deal before he hits UFA.

Thats all Im saying

"A bird in hand is worth two in the bush"

A bird in the hand is 6x6 now not in two years.

 

[Moist ReadOnly]

A bird in the hand is 6x6 now not in two years.

But we agreed he cant get that now - so I mentioned that, in the short term, he comes out with more cash for this inability

Edited

 

[Hockey Sports Fan]

I disagree, that's just appealing to internet/media draft consensus, Just because you don't follow the internet/media consensus doesn't mean the process was bad.

And saying Stillman had a ceiling of a 4th liner the instant he was drafted is a ridiculous statement. Blake Coleman and Tyler Bertuzzi were way bigger recent draft day reaches that were described as grinder type players, just because a draft report describes a player as a grinder or says a player is best suited for a bottom 6 role doesn't mean that puts a strict cap on their potential.

No it isn’t, and no it isn’t.

and you proved my point by comparing Stillman to low-upside, questionable skill forwards taken in the second and third rounds. Stillman wouldn’t nearly be the hot topic he is if he were taken 58th or 75th overall.

 

[JimEIV]

But we agreed he cant get that now - so I mentioned that, in the short term, he comes out with more cash

He really doesn't come out with more cash...he significantly lowers the earning potential of those 8 years by taking a cheap 2 year deal up front.

I'm mean that's what is going to happen, they are going to rob him for a couple of years to make sure everyone else gets paid but it's not good for Dawson at all.

Edit: if a two year cheap deal was even slightly palatable to the Mercer camp we would've seen a deal struck two months ago.

 

[Darkauron]

Yeah when we drafted stillman it was a bad pick, and everyone said he was drafted too high, would never have more than bottom 6 potential, and was not even close to a first round pick. Had much better options by far.