Devils team discussion (news, notes and speculation) - 2023-24 season begins!

[billingtons ghost]

This goes against what a lot of posters on here said yesterday when I said it was like a 90% goaltending thing.

Does it though? It all depends on how well you believe the stats capture game play.

I find it really hard, from both a defensive pairing perspective and from a team defense perspective to watch ANY of our games this year and say that ANY of them have been anywhere near as well played defensively as about 60 of our games last year when we were going well.

Goaltending is a problem NOW, bc our goalies are shaken confidence wise... Equallybut it's hard to shoot Schmid after Edmonton walked us right and left for the first period and we didn't get the puck in their zone for a short for the first 9 minutes.

Also tough to kill Vitek after he weathered the rest of the storm and played a good second only to get blitzed in the first 1:47 of the third. That last goal was gross but it shouldn't have been 4-3 at that p point if we play any defense at all.

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

it is not "tough to kill Vitek". at all.

 

[billingtons ghost]

Letting Severson walk was decided when they traded for Marino. Deciding to let Graves go was probably finalized after the playoffs where he looked too slow and L. Hughes looked so good. These are the type of decisions contenders have to make in a world with a salary cap, not everyone can be kept even if they are useful. I invoked the betting odds just as a semi-objective means of determining where the season expectations lay going into this year.

I think it's safe to say if the team misses the playoffs the year was a disappointment. I also think it's safe to say Fitz is not happy about how the team is playing right now and it goes beyond goaltending. Certain players he's happy with, but as a whole, it's not a pretty picture. The playoffs last year was supposed to signal the team's ascension into a perennial playoff team with talent that if it reached its ceiling would make it a cup contender. The window was just opening. The team is not going to feel good about Holtz, Luke Hughes, Jack Hughes, and Nemec having great years if they miss the playoffs.

Basically the bare minimum for success this year is losing in the first round but the Hughes brothers looking great, with other core players looking like major contributors and not terrible. Team is not on track for that at the moment.

Great post. I agree with everything you say: especially the window opening part. I guess my point is that the moves we made with the Dcorps were necessary for the future, and Fitz thought we could weather the flux but that ain't happening.

I keep going back to this team being overconfident and that it took losing streaks and a few practices in the past to right the shop and then we seem to get an egregious turnover couple with some under par forwarding and suddenly we suck again.

 

[RSeen]

Letting Severson walk was decided when they traded for Marino. Deciding to let Graves go was probably finalized after the playoffs where he looked too slow and L. Hughes looked so good. These are the type of decisions contenders have to make in a world with a salary cap, not everyone can be kept even if they are useful. I invoked the betting odds just as a semi-objective means of determining where the season expectations lay going into this year.

I think it's safe to say if the team misses the playoffs the year was a disappointment. I also think it's safe to say Fitz is not happy about how the team is playing right now and it goes beyond goaltending. Certain players he's happy with, but as a whole, it's not a pretty picture. The playoffs last year was supposed to signal the team's ascension into a perennial playoff team with talent that if it reached its ceiling would make it a cup contender. The window was just opening. The team is not going to feel good about Holtz, Luke Hughes, Jack Hughes, and Nemec having great years if they miss the playoffs.

Basically the bare minimum for success this year is losing in the first round but the Hughes brothers looking great, with other core players looking like major contributors and not terrible. Team is not on track for that at the moment.

While letting Severson and Graves go was the right move, it still hurts us in the short term.

Severson is a better player than Luke right now.
Graves is a better player than Bahl right now.

Our D is downgraded and then you lose Dougie.

If we want any chance this year, we have to upgrade on goaltending and then add an impact piece on the back end, but it seems like a long shot to me.

 

[Emperoreddy]

 

[Emperoreddy]

 

[billingtons ghost]

Yeah it is obvious that our D is not the big problem. It is totally the goalies in every aspect

Forgot sarcasm emoji?

How many goals were remotely stoppable? McDavid alone in the slot with forever after Siegs decks Vitek? Giveaway to Drai on his stick left to walk in? Guy left wide open side of net?

There's not one goalie in this league or ever that we win last night's game with. Best case 3-3.

 

[Guadana]

Defense is good. Im tired to read about it. Devils have less SA and dangerous chances in D zone than other teams. They will never clear the game like someone wants. Stop it. If you want to talk about problem, talk about real ones.
Goalie are bad, but even with this goalies this team will dominate others when Jack, Nico and Bratt are on their way. They are not now.

This team won 8 out of 10 after Nico return. With bad goalies(worst % in the league), "bad" defense (one of the best SA and xGF) and slowed Timo Meier. Now they have problems in 4 straight games even when Timo scores.

Jack costs us flyers game. Their lack of offense, and Toffoli too ( may be smart teams would prefer to save young cheap goal scorer who can play PK, but still right move, Yegor is open to play, Toffoli is need in PP) should make a step forward. Palat is best in xGF in the team, he is making his job, even Timo started to score, McLeod is playing like he is top 6 forward. It's fully on Jack, Nico and Bratt. Ots enough to miss passes, open gates or shot in the chest.

On a good side - our defense started to being even much better with Nemec - he is best D in xGA per 60. Without Dougie turnovers they are playing much safer, but we are missing him in offensive zone.

 

[ZachaFlockaFlame]

Really interested to see how Fitz rolls Dougie's cap into players. Let's hope they come out of the gate hot after the Christmas break to be rewarded handsomely. Tanev/Hanifin + goalie pls

 

[Emperoreddy]

Trade for Allen. Send Schmid to Utica for a month or two so he can regain his confidence. Then finally pull the plug on Vitek when one of Daws or Schmid is ready to come up

 

[NjDevsRR]

Christmas break Danometer:

I’m at a 6. We are in a playoff spot on pts %. They need to beat Lumbus and Ottawa next week. Then the January schedule is interesting. A mix in quality of opponents

 

[BurntToast]

Gravy and Sevs blocked a lot of shots. Its over 250 between them. Gravy had 135 and 152, the two years he was here. That is a major factor with the PK this year and last.

To date Graves has 62 to Kevin Bahl’s 32, Marino’s 40, Sieg’s 53, and Luke’s 18.

Plus, there isn’t much offense, outside of Dougie (Get Well Soon), and Luke (maybe Nemec). Both Graves and Sev were close to 30pt players.

The “vets” need to play better, but Fitz’s gamble on Kevin Bahl has been the biggest failure. The organization marketed Nemec as a rookie, but not Bahl. Bahl technically played too many games last year, but he only played 42 games and sheltered minuets.

 

[NJDevs26]

Don’t bring up blocked shots around here, people claim it’s actually a bad stat because ‘you don’t have the puck’

 

[Triumph]

NST's 2022-23 season is for some reason completely messed up so it's hard to get the numbers, but the Devils are blocking around 25% of shot attempts on the PK. Eyeballing it, that seems somewhat low - other teams seem to be closer to 28-30%, with Tortorella's Flyers above 30% - but the Devils have undercounted Corsi for ages so that could be part of the discrepancy. That said, they're blocking 26% on the road.

 

[Guadana]

Don’t bring up blocked shots around here, people claim it’s actually a bad stat because ‘you don’t have the puck’

"You don't need to defend, if your opponent don't have a puck".
Of course opponents in their prime just have to give the puck gentlemanly just because our puckmoving defensive core is too strong.

 

[Killing Joke]

It sucks seeing a guy we heard a lot of rumors about being at the to of that list. What he could’ve done with this team……

 

[Saint Beaurivage]

 

[devilsblood]

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It sucks seeing a guy we heard a lot of rumors about being at the to of that list. What he could’ve done with this team……

I see two Isle's goalies, 2 Rag's, 2 Bruins, 2 Canucks.

Is it weird that 4 teams are 40+%(Sorry I don't count Greaves and his 2 games) of these lists?

 

[Bleedred]

LOL @ Kahkonen being 15th on that list.

I remember it was only about 5 or 6 weeks ago that Blackwood was having one of the greatest goaltending performances ever, according to a Sharks fan on the main board, because he somehow managed to be right at .900% and just about breaking even in GSAx on that horrific team.

He was having one of the greatest goaltending performances ever. It’s funny that Kahkonen has even better numbers now, so Blackwood was having one of the greatest goaltending performances ever, until Kahkonen also coincidentally started having one of the greatest goaltending performances ever behind the same team about a month later.

Blackwood’s numbers are now in the toilet (as per usual) and he’s not even getting more games than Kahkonen anymore.

 

[My3Sons]

LOL @ Kahkonen being 15th on that list.

I remember it was only about 5 or 6 weeks ago Blackwood was having one of the greatest goaltending performances ever …. on that horrific team.

He was having one of the greatest goaltending performances ever.

Blackwood’s …. getting more games than Kahkonen…..

So should NJ go out and get Blackwood back? The way you talk about him it sure seems like you are implying that.

 

[Killing Joke]

Playoff chances are a coin flip now thanks to the goaltending, poor coaching like starting schmid in back to backs, and strength of schedule.

 

[RSeen]

Gravy and Sevs blocked a lot of shots. Its over 250 between them. Gravy had 135 and 152, the two years he was here. That is a major factor with the PK this year and last.

To date Graves has 62 to Kevin Bahl’s 32, Marino’s 40, Sieg’s 53, and Luke’s 18.

Plus, there isn’t much offense, outside of Dougie (Get Well Soon), and Luke (maybe Nemec). Both Graves and Sev were close to 30pt players.

The “vets” need to play better, but Fitz’s gamble on Kevin Bahl has been the biggest failure. The organization marketed Nemec as a rookie, but not Bahl. Bahl technically played too many games last year, but he only played 42 games and sheltered minuets.

We had to let them walk but having Dougie hurt really hurts. We would have potentially needed to make one addition even with Dougie, now it might be two if we really want to contend.

 

[devilsblood]

We had to let them walk but having Dougie hurt really hurts. We would have potentially needed to make one addition even with Dougie, now it might be two if we really want to contend.

Disagree on Dougie given Nemec.

It's really the unavailability of Miller, forcing Smith into the lineup which has been a negative impact.

Bahl's struggle's in the Graves role has also been a pretty clear issue.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

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Playoff chances are a coin flip now thanks to the goaltending, poor coaching like starting schmid in back to backs, and strength of schedule.

The model can be safely thrown in the toilet looking at Pittsburgh’s odds. Our drop in odds is likely due to Hamilton’s absence given how he’s viewed in the model. Fortunately for us, Nemec is handling it very well.

 

[Bleedred]

View attachment 789851

Playoff chances are a coin flip now thanks to the goaltending, poor coaching like starting schmid in back to backs, and strength of schedule.

Moneypuck has us at a 78.3% right now, which I think is fifth highest in the East.

That was the same model that had the Panthers with good odds last year (but not even that high of odds) down the stretch, which I laughed at the whole way, but it turned out they actually would get in.

Looks like Detroit blew their load. I never bought them, nor were most of these sites. They have them down to a 13% something chance of making it.

The only scary thing is they pretty much have every non-Blue Jackets Metro team clocking in at around at least 90 points.