Who should the Devils pick at #4? – imMagnum Analysis
Overview: My list was created with the New Jersey Devils strictly in mind. While my list is heavily weighted by BPA (in my opinion), I also strongly considered the Devils identity, and the direction Tom Fitzgerald is taking this team. I have also ranked them by order, meaning #1 is more valuable than #2, etc. This turned out longer than I expected, so grab a beer, some Taylor Ham, and enjoy.
#1 – William Eklund – LW - Djurgårdens IF
When I think of the ideal New Jersey Devil, I think top tier skating, relentless pressure, and sky-high hockey IQ. These traits define William Eklund’s game. Not only is Eklund the best skating forward in this year’s draft; he also tops the draft class in hockey IQ. He consistently utilizes both skills in all three zones, allowing him to apply immense pressure on defense and push the pace on offense.
Eklund’s floor and ceiling are not far apart. The consensus of Eklund’s projection is a Top 6F who will be an excellent supporting piece to Elite players. Slot Eklund next to Jack Hughes and the results are likely to be outstanding. How many times have we seen Jack make an electrifying rush up the ice only for no one to be in position or have the skill to finish the opportunity? Not only does Eklund’s skating talent allow him to keep up with the rush and achieve separation from defenders; his elite hockey sense will get him in the correct position for Jack to get him the puck. Eklund is also an excellent puck rusher himself. This will allow the Devils to have options on entry tactics and keep opponents guessing. Defensively, when Hughes is not forcing turnovers, Eklund will be. The two high-end motors will likely frustrate opposing offenses and force defenders to play conservative due to the risk of a rapid counterattack. If that sounds enticing, I would like you to envision our potential Top 6F with an Eklund draft pick:
Eklund / Hughes / Holtz
Bratt / Hischier / Mercer
The criticism I envision of this pick is likely to be that we need to use the 4th overall on a defenseman. While I agree defense is a big, if not the biggest organizational need, no defenseman in this draft are safe bets to be top line players. The Devils must find an impact player with the 4th overall pick and there is no reason they cannot get it if one of Eklund or Beniers are on the board. A major risk for the Devils is to pick one of Power/Hughes/Edvinsson, only for them to develop into a second or third pair LD; an area already saturated with Smith, Mukhamadullin, Bahl, Okhotyuk, and Vukojevic.
Finally, Fitz has stated that the Devils will be ready to be contenders when Jack and Nico are hitting their stride. With the foundation of the team being built around those two, there is no better complementary player in the 2021 draft than William Eklund.
#2 – Jesper Wallstedt – G - Luleå HF
There will likely be a lot of groans from Devils fans if Fitz announces Wallstedt as the selection at 4th overall. There has been a massive outcry from NHL fans that you cannot spend a first-round pick, especially one as valuable as 4th overall, on a goalie. Each team in the 2021 semi-finals, however, had starting goalies that were all picked in the first round. Teams have finally been willing to use high, valuable picks on goalies in the two most recent drafts in Knight and Askarov. I am here to tell you that Wallstedt is a better goalie prospect than both.
To start, Wallstedt has been playing well above his age group since he became a teenager. Wallstedt has not only consistently played against players 4-5 years older than him; he dominated them. For example, after breaking Victor Hedman’s record for youngest player to play in the J20 SuperElit league (14 years old!), Wallstedt proceeded to post above a .920SV% in both the regular season and playoffs. His exceptional play forced his Luleå club to start his professional career in the SHL as a 17-year-old. Now in his draft year, Wallstedt tied the record for most SHL games played by a U21 goalie (remember, he is 18) and did so by having a SV% higher than the league average. His consistent, top-tier performance will crown him as the only Swedish goalie ever to be drafted in the first round. I bring all of this up for one reason: Wallstedt has kicked ass at every league he has ever played in, regardless of the difficulty of his opponents.
Critics of using high draft picks on goalies will often say that goalies are not projectible and I agree that this is often true. Just like Wallstedt has been doing since he dawned goalie pads however, he is an exception to the rule. Wallstedt's game revolves around exceptional puck tracking and positioning, similar to goalies like Hellebuyck or prime Schneider. While Knight and Askarov often make big saves due to their athleticism, Wallstedt's game is based on technique, where he remains deep in the crease and stays square to the puck. Like Knight and Hart have already done, many scouts are optimistic that Wallstedt will see NHL action in 2-3 years, as he is already proven he can handle a professional men’s league as an 18-year-old and will likely be Luleå’s starter at 19. Due to his numerous elite attributes, he is likely to become an NHL starter one day, with the potential to become a franchise, Vezina winning goaltender. And with Wallstedt exceeding every expectation for him for years now, would anyone really be surprised if he became the best player from the 2021 draft?
Fitzgerald has stated numerous times that goaltending is the most important position in the NHL. He has talked about hockey being a game of mistakes and how necessary it is to have a goalie who can bail the team out when these mistakes happen. While Blackwood is trending to be a high-caliber starter in the league, adding a consistently elite and calm goaltender in Wallstedt greatly reinforces the Devils’ net. Fitz can sign a free agent goaltender for 2-3 years to aid Blackwood and let Wallstedt grow in the SHL. Once the free agent’s contract expires, Wallstedt will likely be ready for professional North American ice, giving the Devils a potentially elite tandem during Jack and Nico’s prime. And with the 2021 draft being as unpredictable as ever, especially from 3rd overall on, there has never been a better time for the Devils to land their potential franchise goaltender in Jesper Wallstedt.
#3 – Matthew Beniers – C – University of Michigan
The Devils drafted a very similar player to Beniers at #18 overall in last year’s draft. Beniers, like Mercer, can be reliably played in all situations due to his exceptional two-way play and top-tier motors. The Devils icing Mercer for one shift, followed by a Beniers led line the next would no doubt cause opponents to have fits. I stated under Eklund’s profile that the Devils must land an impact player with the 4th overall, and no one in this draft does so on a more consistent, game-by-game basis than Beniers. He also is likely the safest bet for an NHL career in this year’s draft class, as coaches would love to insert him into lineups based on his work ethic and two-way game alone.
The issue with Beniers and the Devils comes from his projected upside. Beniers is a Center that likely does not have the offensive ceiling that J. Hughes or Hischier has. Spending a 4th overall pick on a player that will slot in on the third line is probably not the best use of the asset, especially when the Devils have other positional needs in the organization. The Devils are also desperate for some goal scoring talent, something that Beniers is not projected to do consistently at the NHL level. The counter argument to all of this, however, is that can a team really have too many impact Centers on its roster? Rolling three lines with Hughes - Hischier - Beniers down the middle would be extremely difficult for opponents to match up against.
If Beniers somehow falls to us at #4, Fitz will likely run to the podium to snag him. This would give the Devils Center depth that will be the envy of the league.
#4 – Luke Hughes – D – USNTDP / University of Michigan
The Devils and majority of fans of the team would love nothing more than to get a top defenseman with their 4th overall pick. That also includes me. While there is certainly potential for multiple defensemen in this draft to become that player for us, I believe each one of them can just as easily become 2nd or 3rd pairing guys. This franchise’s competitive timeline will be greatly hindered if the 4th overall pick turns into a bottom pairing defenseman. The large gap of the Big 4D’s floor to ceiling makes the risk of drafting one of them too high at 4th overall. Should the Devils be more confident than I am regarding this year’s defensemen, Luke Hughes will likely be the one dawning their jersey with their first pick.
Luke Hughes is the ultimate boom or bust player in this year’s draft. Many Devils fans want this pick for obvious reasons, and I definitely see why. Hughes is not only the best skater in this year’s draft, but he also has the second ceiling in my opinion (next to Wallstedt). If Luke can reach his potential as a Devil, we’ve 100% found that #1 defenseman that we have been dreaming off. The key word, however, is “if”.
Let’s start out with the good. Luke Hughes offensively fits the Devils playstyle better than any other defenseman in this year’s draft. He absolutely flies up the ice and can elude defenders in a way only a Hughes can. If he can force a turnover, he is immediately thinking counterattack. Once in the offensive end, he can generate shot attempts by distributing the puck well or taking the shots himself. There is no doubt that the biggest strength of his game is in transition which aligns with the direction Fitzgerald and Ruff are taking the Devils.
Fans of Luke Hughes with the 4th overall, I urge you to recall the times your hair turned grey watching the Devils. Was it when the Devils were hemmed in their zone for over a minute because they could not win puck battles or get the puck up the boards? Perhaps it was when our defense rifled a pass through the middle of the ice in the D-Zone, only for it to be intercepted
*cough-Severson*? Or maybe it was when you were praying our defense could help Cory out just one frickin’ time, only for them to puck watch a rebound and have it end up into the back of our net? Those three painful scenarios occur nearly every single game when Luke Hughes is on the ice. Hughes’ D-Zone capabilities begin and end with his stick. If opponents can elude his stick, Luke unfortunately shows no other way of defending. He is not physical at all and is extremely slow to react to loose pucks. While agile and fast, Hughes will get beat to pucks in corners or rebounds in front of his net. If the puck does somehow find its way to Hughes’ stick, it is usually immediately turned over in the defensive end. As we have seen with the Devils rushing playstyle, if they cannot get the puck out of their own end, the teams speed advantage cannot be utilized. Luke’s biggest weakness by far is his play in his own end, specifically with retrieving pucks and distributing them. I will end this paragraph on a positive note regarding Hughes’ defense. Luke is fantastic in defending transitions. His elite skating, excellent stick, and great length allows him to chase down puck handlers and disrupt opposing breakouts better than anyone else in the 2021 draft.
It is extremely important to note two more things regarding Hughes’ development. First, Luke is extremely young. He has got an extra year of development ahead of compared to most of this draft and will have lots of time to improve on his defensive game. Second, all of Luke’s weaknesses can be taught and worked on. He has got the speed to chase down loose pucks. He has got the size to become more physical. If he can figure out his defensive woes, the ceiling for Hughes’ game is limitless. If he is unable to figure it out though, he will not be a reliable defender in the NHL, much less be able to take on the opposing teams’ best players. At 4th overall, the Devils cannot afford to spend this pick on a defenseman who cannot play against the top players. If they pick Hughes at 4, they will need to be extremely confident they can develop his defensive game.
#5 – Brandt Clarke – D – HC Nove Zamky / Barrie Colts
Brandt Clarke plays a style that mimics no one on the Devils roster. He is a pass first, right-handed defenseman who is a wizard on the offensive end of the ice. He is positionally sound in all three zones and utilizes both his stick and body on the defensive end. While Clarke’s skating is not as good as the other Big 4D, it is not as big of a weakness as the hivemind has determined it to be. His positioning compensates a lot for his skating, as it is strong enough of an asset that his edgework does not need to be high-end, especially on the O-Zone. 2021’s Norris trophy winner has also proven that you don’t need to have elite skating to become a top defender in this league. Where L. Hughes strengths reside in the transition game, Clarke excels when the puck is already established inside of a zone. His outstanding vision and puck skills will allow him to accurately sling pucks in the offensive end. Clarke will rack up numerous assists for any team he plays for; especially when leading a power play.
There are multiple downsides to Clarke’s game, however. The main one I will discuss is his transition play, both offensively and defensively. While Clarke’s passing is as good as it gets inside opponents' blue lines, he has major issues completing passes in the neutral and defensive zone. Clarke struggles immensely with hitting teammates in stride. Although Clarke fires tons of passes each game, they do not land on the tape as much as you would like from a puck-moving defenseman. This will certainly need to be fixed if he is to be successful in the Devils run-and-gun playstyle. He also struggles mightily with controlled entries into the O-Zone, which is quite odd as Clarke certainly has the puck skills to be excellent at it. On defensive transitions, Clarke has a solid stick and gap control. If the opponent comes at him with speed and elusiveness however, Clarke does not currently stand much of a chance. His edgework allows opposing puck carriers to cross his blue line more often than another of the Big 4D. This trait alone will define whether Clarke is a #1 RD or a #2/3 PP specialist. If he cannot keep up with opposing top lines and allows them to carry the puck in the defensive zone on a consistent basis, Clarke will have sheltered minutes. At 4th overall, the Devils cannot afford to spend this pick on a guy who will have to be sheltered against top lines.
Thanks for reading!
