Prospect Info: Devils Picking 4th Overall, Part II

[PKs Broken Stick]

Actually the player Larsson was being compared to most before that draft was Nicklas Lidström, which was odd when at the time because I remember watching the tapes on Larsson and I didn't see much of Lidström in him at all. With Luke you at least see the talent or the potential. Larsson might have been the most overhyped defensemen in recent memory.

I remember there was a sami salo comparison on draft day and a lot of people here were thinking that was insane. It looks pretty accurate now lol.

 

[Lou is God]

No specific players mentioned but its widely believed theyll take someone to help their offensive output; so if not Eklund Guenther or Beniers, maybe Hughes

were left hoping they dont want Luke or, in my scenario, Fitzgerald keeps tabs on them

I keep hearing Guenther as a winger for Zegras, which makes sense as he would be a nice player to put next to Zegras.

 

[Poppy Whoa Sonnet]

I remember there was a sami salo comparison on draft day and a lot of people here were thinking that was insane. It looks pretty accurate now lol.

Nothing makes fans madder than realistic player comparables for these draft picks. There was a Cam Fowler comparable for Luke Hughes dropped on the main board a few weeks ago that seems incredibly reasonable based on everything I've read but made me so mad when I read it.

 

[PKs Broken Stick]

Look, if my team was drafting #15, I would certainly consider Simon Edvinsson. But at #4 overall you need to draft a franchise cornerstone, not a physical, defensive defenseman with great skates but a litany of flaws which need to be corrected. It's just that simple.

This is where we may have different opinions but I honestly probably wouldn't draft him at 15 either. I'd much rather go for a player who has proven results in production, or fills a need and is not too far a reach, or a player with massive potential and had their season cut short cuz of covid so couldn't display it this past season.

Examples:

Corson Ceulemans
Francesco Pinelli
Brennan Othmann
Isak Rosen

While I wouldn't be as mad as if the devils took Edvinsson over those guys at a theoretical #15 pick as I would be at #4...I would still be pretty upset at passing over very high quality prospects who I quite frankly feel would be better players but that's ofc subjective.

 

[Guadana]

Repeat myself from other board.



I`m not the man who is absolutely agree with Scouching in everything. We have a lot of different in views.
Anyway i preceate his work and he has his own view and argumantaion logic.

Edvinsson was pretty good(may be +\- excellent) on junior level. He did play this year on adult level and he is only one who play adult out of top-4 defensemen this year. He is one from only two u-18 defenseman who play more than one game in SHL. He is one of only three u-18 defenseman who did play 4+ games in Alssvenskan - second adult sweden league(where he was point leader defenseman in his age ppg is second best in the last 10 years). This is absolutely another level of competition. And Edvinsson is look like a better well around defenseman. I think he is a safeiest pick out of this three. May be not, but he is pretty good for it. And on the other hand he has great potential to be NHL defenseman. He will not produce on quinn hughes level, but he will not failing on his level in defensive and central zones. He is great to close gaps, he has good starting speed and use his body to create space and win puck battles. He is defenseman you want to play in your team. He is on pretty the same level of production Lindholm has in his years. And he was drafted after Reilly, who is better as producer, be he isnt even close to the level of defensive game Lindholm play. Not only Linholm. Ekman Larson was on his level of production on his age. Why we are talk about this guys? They both were elite skaters and have great defensive abuility for their age. It makes him elite defenseman potentially. Not a PP puckmover, not a good enough shotdown guy bottom-3 role. He is has great potential to be NHL top-3 defenseman. May be even more.

Clarke has great potential to be great playmaker, and im in his camp still, because we are lack of RD, and I think his iq is best or one of the best on this draft. He has bad start and lack of phisicality. He shows great signs he can compensate it by his stick playing, but what can work on junior level - can not on adult level.

And Hughes. Luke-Luke-Luke... He is little overrated at this moment. If you will watch his games on youtube you will see he has great skating and, he is great puckhandler and zone driver. But he doesnt show sign of great iq. He didnt try to make cross passes, he didnt use potential open spots to create dangerous chances, he didnt manage the puck on the blue line to create good chances like Drysdale, Q Hughes did in their draft years. And he is failing in zone protection, he cant push and close gaps, what is remarkaby bad for his size and level of competiotion. He isnt geat in puck battles and isnt well in board plays. I think he can push his offensive game and will use his strength to create dynamic offinsive. But I dont think he will be good in defense. And this part of the game is really... really important in modern game.

Every streingths and weaknesses I mentioned are in prospect games you can see on youtube. Shift by shift videos. There are full games of prospects.


Devils has 5 top-6 guys are in regular roster, and the six member will be selevted between Holtz, Mercer and Clarke. Or may be Kuokkanen will win this spot. Anyway devils has options and some fight for their right to be a Devils forward. What we have in defensive line for today? Smith and Severson, who can leave this place after two years. And bunch of players, who can or can not be NHL player, we still dont know.

I`m still in Clarke camp. He is too smart. He made so many creative things and try to manage the game of his team. And our massive black hole on the right side of defense dictate rules for our draft choice. But if he will picked earlier. Edvinsson MUST be our guy.

And I`m trully dissapoint in @StevenToddIves about his last rankings. This is a big disorder for me. I know he did make mistakes before and it`s ok. He spend a lot of time with different players games. Unfortunately, I can't spend so much time and effort on so many people. This is a very long time, and life is expensive. But I spent enough time on top players. And it kills me how inadequately and unfairly Steve evaluates Edvinsson. I'm not his father and I can't punish him for this. I don't want to wait and see how right I was again, I want to support him, push him to the right decision. And I admire your work this year, Steve. And your previous works. I understand that last year we had more time and opportunity to argue, and we came to different consensuses, this year we did not have such an opportunity. But someday that day will come, and they will ask you why you rated Rantanen so low, and why you rated Edvinsson so low. Think about what you will say to Saint Michael at the gates of paradise. They won't let you in.

 

[Devils731]

And Hughes. Luke-Luke-Luke... He is little overrated at this moment. If you will watch his games on youtube you will see he has great skating and, he is great puckhandler and zone driver. But he doesnt show sign of great iq.

I was watching some clips of Hughes showing off his end to end skating and it’s impressive. This fairly big guy is effortlessly flying up the ice from behind his goal line. He looks like he can go anywhere and it will be hard to stop him.

I did notice that he seemed to take the easier outside route once entering the offensive zone. At that point it doesn’t matter how pretty the skate up ice was, it’s going to be hard to create a great chance as the defender directed Hughes on where the defender wanted Hughes to go.

I certainly haven’t seen Hughes enough to hold any strong opinion but those plays were a little worrisome. With his size and speed he should have been forcing the defenseman to make a choice, cut off the middle or defend Hughes going wide, instead the defenseman was the one dictating plays and it allowed the defenseman to defend wide with confidence. I think that may be another supporting pole to saying Hughes struggles to maximize dangerous plays.

 

[OmNomNom]

Actually the player Larsson was being compared to most before that draft was Nicklas Lidström, which was odd when at the time because I remember watching the tapes on Larsson and I didn't see much of Lidström in him at all. With Luke you at least see the talent or the potential. Larsson might have been the most overhyped defensemen in recent memory.

liljegren was hyped hard at one point (though he fell)

 

[Guadana]

I was watching some clips of Hughes showing off his end to end skating and it’s impressive. This fairly big guy is effortlessly flying up the ice from behind his goal line. He looks like he can go anywhere and it will be hard to stop him.

I did notice that he seemed to take the easier outside route once entering the offensive zone. At that point it doesn’t matter how pretty the skate up ice was, it’s going to be hard to create a great chance as the defender directed Hughes on where the defender wanted Hughes to go.

I certainly haven’t seen Hughes enough to hold any strong opinion but those plays were a little worrisome. With his size and speed he should have been forcing the defenseman to make a choice, cut off the middle or defend Hughes going wide, instead the defenseman was the one dictating plays and it allowed the defenseman to defend wide with confidence. I think that may be another supporting pole to saying Hughes struggles to maximize dangerous plays.

I can write a book about how much claims I have for him. No matter how great he skates, hockey is a game about many things. Like reading of the body lenguage and trying to predict how things will go on. I think he is trying to create a lot but don`t controll and understand what actully will be after his moves and what kind of move he can do after his zone entrance and how he have to regroup to create space and make situation more dangerous for opponents. And its only about his offensive game. People are crazy about his skating and his family ties with Jack. But if we didn't have Jack, or if Luke didn't have Jack(if you know what i mean), it would be a completely different story for us, in which we still have Smith on the left side.

 

[Nico Hughes]

I can write a book about how much claims I have for him. No matter how great he skates, hockey is a game about many things. Like reading of the body lenguage and trying to predict how things will go on. I think he is trying to create a lot but don`t controll and understand what actully will be after his moves and what kind of move he can do after his zone entrance and how he have to regroup to create space and make situation more dangerous for opponents. And its only about his offensive game. People are crazy about his skating and his family ties with Jack. But if we didn't have Jack, or if Luke didn't have Jack(if you know what i mean), it would be a completely different story for us, in which we still have Smith on the left side.

Both Ty Smith and Luke Hughes have played the right side, and for a considerable amount of time (considering theyre lefties)

Luke could quite easily come into the league as a RD and/or Ty is converted to RD (his best offensive production came here, as with Luke)

So I think we have more options than people think. I said it once earlier last week but Tampa Bay's best three defenseman are left handed

 

[Stephen Gionta]

If Luke Hughes is on the board, he's the pick.

 

[HBK27]

If Luke Hughes is on the board, he's the pick.

Yeah, I was originally leaning Clarke but I'm 100% on the Luke Hughes train now...to the point that I'll be disappointed if he's not the pick for any reason.

 

[Guadana]

Both Ty Smith and Luke Hughes have played the right side, and for a considerable amount of time (considering theyre lefties)

Luke could quite easily come into the league as a RD and/or Ty is converted to RD (his best offensive production came here, as with Luke)

So I think we have more options than people think. I said it once earlier last week but Tampa Bay's best three defenseman are left handed

Nope. He will not. You cant play really good or even avarage not on your side. This is not a junior hockey. You must protect puck, you must work by your stick on the shorter side in board battles. Smith played all the time on the right side in juniors, but was put on the left side in his first game. Luke and Ty will not play on the right side, because they will lose puck regulary and it will hurt them on boards every time. Especially when we talk about young defensemen. Anyway Tampa did use lefties and righties on their sides. Btw their best defensemen are good skater and very good in defense. Hughes has great potential. To be PP specialist. And Smith will never has good starting speed. He is good enough to compensate it by his stick work but didnt do this in his rookie season. His BS, hits and takaway stats are double worser than Sergachyov in his first year. And he was year younger. Everything can change, but Hughes has to go a much, many times longer way to become a better competent defender than Edvinsson and Clark, to become a smarter defender than Clark. Edvinsson's path to improving his offensive problems, which he showed in adult hockey, is much shorter. As is Clark's path to improving his fight for the puck.
This is funny how Edvinsson was compare to Lambos who shows his game in much lesser competitive league with less more pressure. Like Hughes did and was lookin worser than Edvinsson in adult leauge. Guy, who played in three different teams in one year. Just imagine how hard to adaptate game for a new collective every time.
Never mind. It`s just a funny and will be obvious after a couple of years. We all will laugh together. With Clarke in roster, I hope. If it will be Hughes - we will laugh tearfully. And the tears will be bitter.

 

[Nico Hughes]

Nope. He will not. You cant play really good or even avarage not on your side. This is not a junior hockey. You must protect puck, you must work by your stick on the shorter side in board battles. Smith played all the time on the right side in juniors, but was put on the left side in his first game. Luke and Ty will not play on the right side, because they will lose puck regulary and it will hurt them on boards every time. Especially when we talk about young defensemen. Anyway Tampa did use lefties and righties on their sides. Btw their best defensemen are good skater and very good in defense. Hughes has great potential. To be PP specialist. And Smith will never has good starting speed. He is good enough to compensate it by his stick work but didnt do this in his rookie season. His BS, hits and takaway stats are double worser than Sergachyov in his first year. And he was year younger. Everything can change, but Hughes has to go a much, many times longer way to become a better competent defender than Edvinsson and Clark, to become a smarter defender than Clark. Edvinsson's path to improving his offensive problems, which he showed in adult hockey, is much shorter. As is Clark's path to improving his fight for the puck.
This is funny how Edvinsson was compare to Lambos who shows his game in much lesser competitive league with less more pressure. Like Hughes did and was lookin worser than Edvinsson in adult leauge. Guy, who played in three different teams in one year. Just imagine how hard to adaptate game for a new collective every time.
Never mind. It`s just a funny and will be obvious after a couple of years. We all will laugh together. With Clarke in roster, I hope. If it will be Hughes - we will laugh tearfully. And the tears will be bitter.

While Im not refuting practically anything you said, its completely false to claim you cant play 'even average' on your opposite side; a good amount of defenseman in the NHL play on their offside, and if we have an incredible-skating transitional dman, he may excel on his strong shooting side to open up his game and allows someone like Ty to focus more on stretch passing and defensive awareness

Im totally fine playing Luke and Ty as our 1-2LDs, but this idea that they just cant do it because theyre left handed isnt something I agree with, and its in fact becoming more common IIRC.

 

[Guadana]

While Im not refuting practically anything you said, its completely false to claim you cant play 'even average' on your opposite side; a good amount of defenseman in the NHL play on their offside, and if we have an incredible-skating transitional dman, he may excel on his strong shooting side to open up his game and allows someone like Ty to focus more on stretch passing and defensive awareness

Im totally fine playing Luke and Ty as our 1-2LDs, but this idea that they just cant do it because theyre left handed isnt something I agree with, and its in fact becoming more common IIRC.

They play. How good they did it as line drivers? How many defensemen who play not on their side are good line drveirs? How good they play on the boards? How well they are in their game in starts of their career when they were young and play on the worng side? And if we remember about succsesful teams. In the last three years its tampa, vegas and islanders. lets add montreal. As I remember only Theodeor did play on the right side. From all of 4 teams defensemen. Theodor was very good in offensive zone, but he is a leader of Vegas in.. giveaways. And he is expirienced enough to compensate it.
Hughes is a "gamble with high reward". But the chance to lose it all is very high. BTW Clarke and Edvinsson are "gamble with high reward", and risk is much lower.

Anyway if you want to pick Hughes i`m understand it and ok with it. We are lack of defensemen. And he is talanted one. But if you want to pick him - pick him as left defenseman. Dont make his way even harder.

 

[TheDuke93]

Clarke, Hughes, Beniers or Eklund. If we don't come away with one of these four I will be INCREDIBLY disappointed in the draft no matter who else we get.

 

[Nico Hughes]

They play. How good they did it as line drivers? How many defensemen who play not on their side are good line drveirs? How good they play on the boards? How well they are in their game in starts of their career when they were young and play on the worng side? And if we remember about succsesful teams. In the last three years its tampa, vegas and islanders. lets add montreal. As I remember only Theodeor did play on the right side. From all of 4 teams defensemen. Theodor was very good in offensive zone, but he is a leader of Vegas in.. giveaways. And he is expirienced enough to compensate it.
Hughes is a "gamble with high reward". But the chance to lose it all is very high. BTW Clarke and Edvinsson are "gamble with high reward", and risk is much lower.

Anyway if you want to pick Hughes i`m understand it and ok with it. We are lack of defensemen. And he is talanted one. But if you want to pick him - pick him as left defenseman. Dont make his way even harder.

If him and Ty Smith say they prefer to play the left than by all means. But I dont subscribe to the theory that itd be any harder for them, if thats what theyre used to. I understand juniors is different but some players particularly excel in that style of play, and I wouldnt be surprised if Luke could end up as that

Im sure of this: Luke and Ty were the best defenseman on their respective teams in their final pre-draft seasons, and each played the right side. So this isnt like 'oh were stacked on the left play right', as youd want your best dman in a position to succeed. Ty even played post-draft on the right side IIRC. If Luke goes to college and plays the right side, this will be more telling.

Otherwise, again, im fully on board with them being our 1-2 on the left.

 

[Emperoreddy]

I just go back from camping in Maine since last weekend, is there any word on who the Ducks are high on?

No. Just assumptions based on their needs and past drafting records.

They have Drysdale so the belief is they wouldn't be interested in another RD in Clarke. They are a black hole on offense so some think that might make them inclined to go forward, especially if Berniers makes it to 3.

But they also love to draft D in the first round so they might be really high on Edvinnson or Hughes.

Then add that Buffalo wants another top 5 pick so they can draft Eklund on top of whomever they take 1st overall and the Ducks kicking the tires on Eichel

 

[Guadana]

If him and Ty Smith say they prefer to play the left than by all means. But I dont subscribe to the theory that itd be any harder for them, if thats what theyre used to. I understand juniors is different but some players particularly excel in that style of play, and I wouldnt be surprised if Luke could end up as that

Im sure of this: Luke and Ty were the best defenseman on their respective teams in their final pre-draft seasons, and each played the right side. So this isnt like 'oh were stacked on the left play right', as youd want your best dman in a position to succeed. Ty even played post-draft on the right side IIRC. If Luke goes to college and plays the right side, this will be more telling.

Otherwise, again, im fully on board with them being our 1-2 on the left.

And given that Smith has played so much on the right, more than Hughes, it rather tells us that Hughes ' path to the NHL is very likely to be even more difficult. Because he will either have to retrain and change the wing, or learn to play against serious opponents, not being able to protect the puck with his body.

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

 

[Team Concept]

I know its an imperfect science but I just took a deep dive into the statistics that Hughes posted on both the U17 and U18 national teams along with the stats he posted with USNTDP. I compared his statistics with those of Zach Werenski, Charlie McAvoy, Noah Hanifin, K'Andre Miller and Quinn Hughes. According to the stats Hughes seems to be slightly behind Werenski and slightly ahead of his brother in offensive production. Werenski broke in with Columbus at age 19 and Quinn Hughes broke in with Vancouver full-time at age 20.

So I think its a lock that Luke Hughes will get between 40-50 points per season. Both Werenski and Quinn Hughes went to Michigan. So Luke puts in two seasons at Michigan and joins the Devils for training camp just after he turns 20 years old. I think the late birthday adds to his value (9-9-03) which is almost a full year younger than some prospects.

 

[Devils Army]

If Luke goes before 4 I wouldn't hate trading back and taking Guenther. Think he fits next to both Nico or Jack in the future. Holtz and Guenther would be awesome pairs for our young centers.

 

[Eggtimer]

I have been back and forth on who to take at 4 about 383227 times but have finally settled on Hughes. The deciding factor for me has 0% to do with being Jacks bro. It’s his age that does it for me. He is ranked as a 1-5/6 pick by everyone and is a full year younger than everyone else. That to me is huge . Add in his elite skating and that seals the deal for me. Even if he somewhat sucks at D right now , you can teach him how to play better D easier- with better gaps , stick work , routes , etc. but you can’t just show him video on how to have elite skating . His skating will allow him to grow easier and quicker as a player in all zones.
Now I am going to be pissed if we can’t get him

 

[StevenToddIves]

Larsson also scored 17 points (4G 13A) in 49 games, 0.35 points per game, in his first season in the Elitserien as a 17 year old. The ESPN article in the link is from July 2010 so it came out after that unprecedented season and before Larsson’s draft year started. The article refers to him front runner for 1OA but that likely changed because his offense took a dip in his draft year, with 9 points (1G 8A) in 37 games, 0.24 points per game. His draft year was seen as somewhat disappointing season cut short by a groin injury. That early praise wasn’t just for Larsson’s skill set though, it was for his actual offensive production in the Swedish men’s league. He also performed quite well in tournaments and won Best Defenseman at U18 WJC in 2010.

Hedman was more productive in his draft year, but he only had 4 points (2G 2A) in 39 games as a 17 year old before exploding with 21 points (7G 14A) in 43 games, 0.49 points/per game, in his draft year. While Hedman’s age 17 production was more modest he was even more dominant in the J20 at 16 then Larsson was.

Edvinsson’s offensive numbers so far don’t match either player, in fact it’s hard to find a match statewide. Philip Broberg?

Thanks for this, brother. Great info for all of us.

Edvinsson (to me) is a significantly superior prospect than Broberg. Quite simply, he's far better defensively, he's more physical, and although his game certainly needs some fine tuning, Edvinsson is far less mistake prone. I feel Edvinsson's best recent comparable would be Braden Schneider -- he's strong, physical, defensively very solid and quite mobile with a bit more offensive upside than your average "shut-down" guy. Edvinsson would get the nod over Schneider with skating and hands, but Schneider gets the nod with overall defensive play and hockey IQ. But I see them both ideally as very very good, defensive-minded 3/4 defensemen.

 

[TheUnseenHand]

Clarke, Hughes, Beniers or Eklund. If we don't come away with one of these four I will be INCREDIBLY disappointed in the draft no matter who else we get.

One of them will be available. Hope we don't pass on them for the big Swede...

 

[Guttersniped]

Actually the player Larsson was being compared to most before that draft was Nicklas Lidström, which was odd when at the time because I remember watching the tapes on Larsson and I didn't see much of Lidström in him at all. With Luke you at least see the talent or the potential. Larsson might have been the most overhyped defensemen in recent memory.

If there was a defenseman who scored 17 points in 49 games in the SHL as 17 year old in his D-1 year, and won best defenseman at the WJC as a cherry on top, everyone would be going bonkers for him. And he would be going first in this draft. Hell, if there was a defenseman who scored 9 points in 37 SHL games everyone would be pretty excited. The comparisons to Lindstrom in the articles aren’t that impossibly outrageous, “he’s better than Lindstrom was at that age” is presumably true about them at 17. (The stats check out and I’m going to take the Swedish scouting community’s word on that.) If Larsson had built on his big D-1 year instead of taking a minor step back he would have gone 1OA with great fanfare.

Just because Larsson never broke out defensively and has worn down into defensive defenseman doesn’t mean he was that as a prospect or projected to be that.

Edvinsson hasn’t produced offensively like the most of recent Swedish defensemen taken in 1st round, particularly early in the first round. He’s a 2003 birth so some guys with earlier birthdays have an extra season and this was a trying year but if he’s two way defenseman the offense hasn’t exactly revealed itself and someone who couldn’t lockdown a spot in the SHL isn’t a “safe pick”. He’s somewhere in or near the Broberg/Soderstrom zone (if Soderstrom’s draft year went worse than it did) but he was a bit less productive in his earlier years.

Edvisson could break out next season, I don’t play amateur scout or prognosticator much, but I would like to know why he struggled so much this season and wasn’t as advanced as 15-16 year old as Swede defensemen high picks traditionally are. The problem with just going by the eye test is the “eye test” can slide into “wishful thinking”. I’m not valuing a guy just for his defense that high in the draft, particularly when his defense isn’t even that great.

Edvisson is attractive because he skates well for his size and it does seem like he has the skills to produce offensively. He’s a messy work in progress though, I’m perplexed by the “safe pick” stuff unless we’re going by the fact that any guy that tall taken that high seemingly can get massive ice time forever (see Risto and Myers, maybe the Sabres should draft him too.)

I get wanting Clarke more than Hughes but the idea that Edvisson is no brainer over him if you ignore his name isn’t true, I think scouts just like putting eyes on prospects and Hughes’ injury and missed time is causing him to drop. It’s pretty normal.