Devils discussion (news, notes and speculation) - playoff edition

[devilsblood]

As much as I would love having Quinn here, I don't think it's a smart move to trade players like Nemec for him. I'm one of the few here who want to keep Nemec. To me he was one of our best playoff players. Regular season be damned. I am on board with moving on from Hamilton because from a cap perspective it just makes sense. Palat & Haula get a lot of hate but they proved to still be serviceable. Haula as an extra or on the 4th line is fine. This is his last year. Palat on the 3rd or 4th line is also fine. If you find someone who wants him then let him go. Getting rid of Hamilton would be clutch. 9 mill goes a very long way. I have to believe Hamilton still has value in the league & it wouldn't be a cap dump.

These playoffs changed opinions on Nemec, mine included.

I'd do Silayev though. Said it above. Ham's and Silayev for Quinn.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

Palat and Hamilton out and Ehlers and Pageau in. Do it Lou

Ehlers-Nico-Timo
Gritsyuk-Jack-Bratt
Haula-Pageau-Mercer
Cotter-Glass-Noesen

Not bad

 

[NjdevilfanJim]

I don't give a shit about the the pair denominations. Siegs-Kovy was one of the best pairs in the league and the best shutdown pair in the league. Quinn is arguably the best Dman in the world and Pesce's a high end shutdown guy. That pair would also be one of the best pairs in the league. Luke can play his offside and Luke in a "3rd pair" role facing soft competition would absolutely feast. That D group is like 22-23 but juiced to the f***ing gills. Quinn-Pesce is a better version of Siegs-Dougie. Siegs-Kovy is a better version of Graves-Marino. Dillon-Luke is a better version of Smith-Sevo. That 22-23 D group was really high end stuff. This D group would be the best in the league and pretty clearly to me.

Quinn is worlds better than Nemec and so much better than Nemec will ever be. Send him out for Quinn. I laid out a scenario where you can still address the forwards while also getting Quinn. No the group is not as good as it would be without Quinn but it can still be a good group and he makes your D group astronomically better. Quinn also helps offset a lesser forward group by being one of the greatest offensive creators ever from the backend. He's a one man army.

Fantasy hockey league team building imo have at it ....Luke playing third pair is not why u drafted him Quinn Hughes is not Scott Stevens reincarnated he will not grab a team and lead them to a cup

 

[guitarguyvic]

He clearly wanted a more physical team. Started with Timo. And then Boq and Shara getting the boot. Adding Cotter and Noesen this year. The Defense has been getting bigger and stronger and more physical.

He even said flat out he wanted guys getting into the gym last off season.

As per firing Ruff after the first playoff season in 5 years and the first playoff round win in 10? Sorry, but it was never happening. Did Lou ever fire a coach coming off what was an upward trending season, where they far out succeeded the previous season?

Yeah sure clearly he was looking for more physicality and rightfully so. I don’t know that he intentionally sacrificed speed and talent in the name of it though. Again, I think that was just him doing a shitty job with finding good depth talent.

 

[Hisch13r]

Palat and Hamilton out and Ehlers and Pageau in. Do it Lou

We getting Pageau retained? If not Suter>>>>>

 

[devilsblood]

Yeah sure clearly he was looking for more physicality and rightfully so. I don’t know that he intentionally sacrificed speed and talent in the name of it though. Again, I think that was just him doing a shitty job with finding good depth talent.

Maybe not intentionally, but he was willing to make that sacrifice.

And he clearly has made some bad moves with a theme around "toughness" that is apparent in signings as well as drafting.

Still some of our lack of scoring is just due to guys under performing. Mercer being a prime example, Haula, Lazar etc.

And I also think the transition to a defense first team also sucked some offense out of the group.

But my hope now is that Fitz doesn't double down on toughness and see's that we now need to swing back a little towards speed and scoring.

 

[guitarguyvic]

Lou absolutely did not fire coaches in these situations 'more than once'. That is a complete misstatement.

Lou never fired a coach after winning a round in the playoffs. He fired a coach once after a good half-regular season that lost in the playoffs (Constantine), he fired a coach where the wheels were falling off on a good regular season with one of the best rosters ever assembled (Ftorek) and he fired a coach after a good regular season points wise but a terrible regular season outside the crease (Julien).

'More than once' - complete absurdity.

Every one of these involved firing a coach in spite of good results. Constantine had a .694 percentage with the team. Yeah they lost to the eventual finalists in six games in the first round - that’s hardly a typical death sentence for a coach.

Ftorek had the team at the top of league before they went 6-10 towards the end. Again, this is hardly the type of slump that would make a coaching firing expected or predictable, not when the team is literally in first place with eight games left in the season.

Julien might have been less unexpected given how the team played in spite of the results, but again, it still isn’t what fans and pundits typically predict when the win/loss results are still positive.

None of this refutes the point, it only strengthens it. Lou always had the balls to pull the trigger even in situations when most would say it’s not necessary or appropriate. He knew exactly what he wanted from his players and coach, and took whatever difficult steps he needed to fulfill his vision, optics or other people’s opinions or whatever else be damned. He took these risks knowing they could backfire but had the courage of his conviction. Fitz is basically the complete opposite of this.

 

[Poppy Whoa Sonnet]

I think he envisioned Nemec being in the lineup all year, and underrated how impactful Marino was in moving the puck. Likely also didn't see how Keefe was going slow everything down so dramatically on the counter compared to Ruff.

Replacing those two with Pesce/Kovacevic, and adding Keefe's tactics and the defense became slow, focused on limiting chances against v. generating chances, and the entire makeup of the team and how they win games changed.

He's gonna steer into it and add a big defensively responsible 3C most likely.

 

[Triumph]

Your depth is going to be necessarily worse when you don't have any internal replacements and you're paying more for the other players on the roster.

You also typically cannot find all that much speed on the UFA market.

 

[guitarguyvic]

Your depth is going to be necessarily worse when you don't have any internal replacements and you're paying more for the other players on the roster.

You also typically cannot find all that much speed on the UFA market.

Whose fault is this? Poor drafting also falls under “shitty job of identifying talent”.

 

[devilsblood]

Your depth is going to be necessarily worse when you don't have any internal replacements and you're paying more for the other players on the roster.

You also typically cannot find all that much speed on the UFA market.

Maybe, I can't say I know how fast prospective UFA's are, but Boq as an example, was a guy who could have been had for peanuts. I'd bet there are other guys out there as well, you just need to identify them.

Not sure how fast Suter is.

 

[devilsblood]

Whose fault is this? Poor drafting also falls under “shitty job of identifying talent”.

I'm doubting he is going to argue otherwise.

 

[Triumph]

Every one of these involved firing a coach in spite of good results. Constantine had a .694 percentage with the team. Yeah they lost to the eventual finalists in six games in the first round - that’s hardly a typical death sentence for a coach.

Constantine was fired not because of the job he did but because Lou wanted Pat Burns. That's fine. It's rare for this to happen but it does happen - Drew Bannister wasn't getting great results with St. Louis but they had just named him permanent head coach 6 months earlier and then they threw him overboard for Jim Montgomery when he came available.

The Devils didn't fire Constantine in April after they lost in the playoffs, they fired him in June right before Burns was hired.

Ftorek had the team at the top of league before they went 6-10 towards the end. Again, this is hardly the type of slump that would make a coaching firing expected or predictable, not when the team is literally in first place with eight games left in the season.

The firing was not expected, but the team is one of the best ever assembled and 6-10 is pretty unacceptable. Also makes you wonder why he was hired if this was the result, but I guess he was hired under McMullen and fired under YankeeNets.

Julien might have been less unexpected given how the team played in spite of the results, but again, it still isn’t what fans and pundits typically predict when the win/loss results are still positive.

None of this refutes the point, it only strengthens it. Lou always had the balls to pull the trigger even in situations when most would say it’s not necessary or appropriate. He knew exactly what he wanted from his players and coach, and took whatever difficult steps he needed to fulfill his vision, optics or other people’s opinions or whatever else he damned. Fitz is basically the complete opposite of this.

Lou had all of those things, but he also had the job stability and complete control over the organization such that this was possible - this is how he kept his job even after 2007, when another organization would probably be looking to move on after he had to give up his 1st round pick for a terrible signing, let his other players wait around in abeyance during training camp to sign them because of a different terrible signing, hired a coach who he had to fire for the second time, and so on.

Fitzgerald doesn't have this, I agree, that's in part because things are run differently now.

 

[Triumph]

Whose fault is this? Poor drafting also falls under “shitty job of identifying talent”.

Partly his and partly the previous regime (and of course, the regime before that).

 

[devilsblood]

I think he envisioned Nemec being in the lineup all year, and underrated how impactful Marino was in moving the puck. Likely also didn't see how Keefe was going slow everything down so dramatically on the counter compared to Ruff.

Replacing those two with Pesce/Kovacevic, and adding Keefe's tactics and the defense became slow, focused on limiting chances against v. generating chances, and the entire makeup of the team and how they win games changed.

He's gonna steer into it and add a big defensively responsible 3C most likely.

I'm one who would like to see Nico's workload lightened so I wouldn't mind a big defensive 3C.

But if we get one, I think that enables us to get a speedier 4th line C who doesn't need to handle much by way of defensive minutes.

 

[guitarguyvic]

Constantine was fired not because of the job he did but because Lou wanted Pat Burns. That's fine. It's rare for this to happen but it does happen - Drew Bannister wasn't getting great results with St. Louis but they had just named him permanent head coach 6 months earlier and then they threw him overboard for Jim Montgomery when he came available.

The Devils didn't fire Constantine in April after they lost in the playoffs, they fired him in June right before Burns was hired.



The firing was not expected, but the team is one of the best ever assembled and 6-10 is pretty unacceptable. Also makes you wonder why he was hired if this was the result, but I guess he was hired under McMullen and fired under YankeeNets.



Lou had all of those things, but he also had the job stability and complete control over the organization such that this was possible - this is how he kept his job even after 2007, when another organization would probably be looking to move on after he had to give up his 1st round pick for a terrible signing, let his other players wait around in abeyance during training camp to sign them because of a different terrible signing, hired a coach who he had to fire for the second time, and so on.

Fitzgerald doesn't have this, I agree, that's in part because things are run differently now.

This just seems like post-hoc rationalizations to me. In an alternate universe where Fitz fired Lindy after 22-23, the explanation/rationalization would be that the team’s defensive structure looked like hot garbage and they got absolutely smoked in the playoffs by a well coached team that was well structured in contrast.

It may be true that Lou was in a better position to take risks in his later years than Fitz is now, but Lou was making courageous decisions long before he won multiple cups and cemented himself in the organization.

 

[Triumph]

This just seems like post-hoc confirmation bias to me. In an alternate universe where Fitz fired Lindy after 22-23, the explanation would be that the team’s defensive structure looked like hot garbage and the team got absolutely smoked in the playoffs by a well coached team that was well structured in contrast.

The point I was making which you ignored is that Lou never fired a coach who won a playoff round after the playoffs, even though he fired 4 coaches in unusual circumstances. I think it is a much, much harder decision to do what you are proposing, firing a coach after a wildly successful regular season on the basis of a bad playoff run, especially when this is the first coach you have hired and you have no track record anywhere else.

It may be true that Lou was in a better position to take risks in his later years than Fitz is now, but Lou was making courageous decisions long before he won multiple cups and cemented himself in the organization.

He had won a Cup by the time he was making these difficult decisions, and while I can't find the exact timeline, I think the Nets already had him as a CEO when he fired Ftorek. He had as much job security as a person in this business can have.

 

[njdevil26]

The lineup you're suggesting already has less than 1 mil in cap space lol. How are you getting a top 6 wing, 3C, and 4th line wing with less than a mil in cap space? If the deal happens then Dougie is gone.

WELL THAT'S NOT MY JOB NOW IS IT

haha

Yes, if Quinn is a Devil I would imagine Dougie goes.

I just can't stand the constant suggestions we trade Hamilton when the team stinks when he gets hurt, he was on pace for the second best offensive year of his career, and people need to stop acting like Casey or Nemec are going to step in and score 50+ points.

 

[Hisch13r]

WELL THAT'S NOT MY JOB NOW IS IT

haha

Yes, if Quinn is a Devil I would imagine Dougie goes.

I just can't stand the constant suggestions we trade Hamilton when the team stinks when he gets hurt, he was on pace for the second best offensive year of his career, and people need to stop acting like Casey or Nemec are going to step in and score 50+ points.

Dougie was on pace for the 2nd best offensive year of his career? He paced for 51 pts this year. That’s his 5th best pt pace. He was pace for 12 goals. This his 11th best goal pace.

Also the idea the team stinks when Dougie’s holds no weight to me for this year when we had sucked for the 2 prior months with Dougie in the lineup. He missed 18 games. Over that we were 19th in pt pace with the 23rd best xG%. Really bad stuff but for the 26 games before that after Christmas we had the 27th best pt pace and the 24th best xG%. Let’s not act like Dougie’s absence sunk the team this year.

The idea also isn’t even that Casey/Nemec replace Dougie 1 for 1. Dougie’s role as PP1QB is very replaced by Luke. Dougie was already used on the 3rd pair this year. Using 9 mil on a 3rd pair PP2 guy is absolutely asinine when we have no cap space and he’s blocking 2 promising young players on ELC. The idea is having 9 mil to upgrade our dogshit forward depth and having Casey/Nemec be adequate 3rd pair guys. Gimme an adequate 3rd pair guy on an ELC and a good forward group rather than 9 mil on a great 3rd pair and an awful forward group.

 

[RSeen]

As much as I would love having Quinn here, I don't think it's a smart move to trade players like Nemec for him. I'm one of the few here who want to keep Nemec. To me he was one of our best playoff players. Regular season be damned. I am on board with moving on from Hamilton because from a cap perspective it just makes sense. Palat & Haula get a lot of hate but they proved to still be serviceable. Haula as an extra or on the 4th line is fine. This is his last year. Palat on the 3rd or 4th line is also fine. If you find someone who wants him then let him go. Getting rid of Hamilton would be clutch. 9 mill goes a very long way. I have to believe Hamilton still has value in the league & it wouldn't be a cap dump.

Quinn is a top 2 Dman in the league - normally I'd agree but given just how good he is, it is hard to pass up even if it creates some redundancies. Though I'd rather keep Nemec and trade other pieces like Silayev.

Theoretically adding Quinn will reduce Luke's opportunities and deployment. Luke will not get PP1 time and may not get top pair time either. He probably won't get a big portion of the defensive zone starts either, that will be Siegs.

Without Quinn, you'd hope Luke can be a 24 minute Dman but with Quinn, I'd think he might be closer to 21.5 minutes and getting less opportunities to be in situations where he will earn his salary (PP).

With all that said, I still trade for Quinn and sign him to a major extension - he is too good of a player to pass up, even if he means limiting Luke.

I don't really think trading for him this season is likely unless he demands a trade. We also have a logjam on D.

Dillon is not going anywhere this season, would have to wait until his last year of the deal to perhaps get out of that contract.

Dougie has to go almost for sure to make this work, which I think needs to happen anyways.

 

[RSeen]

Palat and Hamilton out and Ehlers and Pageau in. Do it Lou

I love Ehlers and think he'd become our 4th best forward instantly but I don't know if we can hand out a 7 year contract to a 29 year old.

Pageau's contract is too heavy. I'd only do it if they'd take Palat back but Lou is gone so that isn't happening.

 

[PKs Broken Stick]

I'd do a Silayev+Hamilton+Vilen for Quinn Hughes trade. Silayev has no future here if Quinn is here and Vancouver at least gets something. Not entirely sure they'd have any interest in Hamilton if I were tbh. Would probably need some kind of 3-way trade where Vancouver gets a 1st round pick from another team for Hamilton, or something like that

 

[Hisch13r]

Quinn is a top 2 Dman in the league - normally I'd agree but given just how good he is, it is hard to pass up even if it creates some redundancies. Though I'd rather keep Nemec and trade other pieces like Silayev.

Theoretically adding Quinn will reduce Luke's opportunities and deployment. Luke will not get PP1 time and may not get top pair time either. He probably won't get a big portion of the defensive zone starts either, that will be Siegs.

Without Quinn, you'd hope Luke can be a 24 minute Dman but with Quinn, I'd think he might be closer to 21.5 minutes and getting less opportunities to be in situations where he will earn his salary (PP).

With all that said, I still trade for Quinn and sign him to a major extension - he is too good of a player to pass up, even if he means limiting Luke.

I don't really think trading for him this season is likely unless he demands a trade. We also have a logjam on D.

Dillon is not going anywhere this season, would have to wait until his last year of the deal to perhaps get out of that contract.

Dougie has to go almost for sure to make this work, which I think needs to happen anyways.

I'd much rather trade Nemec and keep Silayev. Quinn would make both Nemec and Casey really redundant and Nemec is going to have more value in a trade so he makes sense to be the one to part with. Silayev doesn't have any of those redundancies concerns. Nemec is a very offensive leaning guy. Silayev's a defensive monster.

I don't really worry about Luke's reduced opportunities and deployment. Let's say Luke's at 9 mil. By year 3 of his deal that's the equivalent of 7 mil on this current cap. He spent most of this year as the PP2 guy and still paced for 50 pts and that's at 21. It's even less of a concern if he's able turn those defensive highs he hit for stretches this year into a consistent thing.

By the time he's 25 he could be a high end defensive player that is on your 2nd PK unit, is an elite offensive driver and transition guy, that puts up 50+ pts even as the PP2 guy, AND is doing all of that for 5 years where he's making the equivalent of <7 mil on this current cap climate. Luke at 9 mil even with reduced opportunities compared to if Quinn wasn't here will look like an absurd bargain.

I also agree they're not moving him this year. Like at the absolute earliest I could see is sometime mid next season if their season goes off the rails and they know he's not going to want to stick around. I don't think the logjam is much of an issue. You mention Dougie "almost has to go" to make this work. Dougie has to go just to make anything work for next season even regardless of Quinn. So with Dougie gone and also Nemec likely going back in that deal there's really not a logjam. You have Quinn, Siegs, Dillon on the left, shift Luke to the right with Pesce and Kovy. Casey as the 7D.

Separately on the the Dillon thing it shouldn't even be a perhaps we get out of him next year. We'd already be better off without him. We'll definitely be better off without him in a year from now and his protections downgrading from a full NTC to a 10 team NTC should make him pretty easy to dump.

 

[Better Call Sal]

Ehlers-Nico-Timo
Gritsyuk-Jack-Bratt
Haula-Pageau-Mercer
Cotter-Glass-Noesen

Not bad

Halifax Moosehead reunion on the top line.

 

[Hisch13r]

I'd do a Silayev+Hamilton+Vilen for Quinn Hughes trade. Silayev has no future here if Quinn is here and Vancouver at least gets something. Not entirely sure they'd have any interest in Hamilton if I were tbh. Would probably need some kind of 3-way trade where Vancouver gets a 1st round pick from another team for Hamilton, or something like that

I don't know how Silayev would have no future here. That's your defensive rock of the future. If you get Quinn then at the very least one of Nemec or Casey would be the ones without a future here. Not Silayev. There's no overlap between Luke/Quinn and Silayev. If this is about the handedness thing I'm not worried about that in the slightest. Siegs only has 3 years left. Silayev will only be 22 then. Even if you kept Siegs around after that or one of the LD prospects worked their way into the lineup then shift Luke over to the right.