Devils discussion (news, notes and speculation) - part IV
- Thread starter NJDevs26
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NJDevs26
Once upon a time...
- Mar 21, 2007
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PizzaAndPucks
New Jersey Angels diehard
- Nov 29, 2018
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That 1st round pick we gave up for Markstrom is top 10 protected. If this team keeps free falling then we might wind up with some consolation prize if we fall hard.
Watch Tom move all 3 of our 2nd round picks this year for some 3rd line players for this team to still miss the playoffs...
Watch Tom move all 3 of our 2nd round picks this year for some 3rd line players for this team to still miss the playoffs...
As thr arbiter of both humor and pathos I think the answer is a wry smile and muffled chuckle followed by a wistful sigh
ZachaFlockaFlame
Registered User
- Aug 24, 2020
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Same exact way I felt after Jack missed the penalty shot v Anaheim last year, just sitting in my bed and looking up at the ceiling and wondering what now lol
R8Devs
1-5-6-12
nvm - he may still be available but I don't think they'll get him anyway
i'd rather not get rentals the way this season is going but he was one guy that I think they can re-sign outright.
ZachaFlockaFlame
Registered User
- Aug 24, 2020
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Fitz is going to do something to save his job, he's getting fired if they miss.
SteveCangialosi123
Registered User
Nick Bjugstad for a 3rd round pick
ZachaFlockaFlame
Registered User
- Aug 24, 2020
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Me walking into Fitz's office after that deal was announced
Shit, age restricted lol. Damn it Sopranos
youryeah
Registered User
- Jun 21, 2019
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also who knows how long we just lost dougie for 
NOT GREAT Y’ALL
NOT GREAT Y’ALL
ZachaFlockaFlame
Registered User
- Aug 24, 2020
- 17,791
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Don't think they win the Oilers game just on sheer firepower EDM has unless Markstrom flat out stones them, CBJ is incredible at home too but the rest have to be wins.
They played better without him at 5 v 5 tonight, by a massive margin for what its worth. Maybe him gone changes things in the backend in a way we did not forseealso who knows how long we just lost dougie for
NOT GREAT Y’ALL
youryeah
Registered User
- Jun 21, 2019
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oh my
Edmonton East
BUT the ADvaNCEd STatS...
- Nov 25, 2007
- 6,625
- 2,616
I still think it's shoulder, but wrist would be best case. If they made playoffs, he could return and be solid assuming it isn't a bad break. If it's his damn shoulder, he's gonna be near useless even if he forces himself back with how he plays as is. Plus added concern for next season+. Soo wrist would be positive in my eyes.
I've never broken a wrist, but since first dislocating my shoulder in my late 20s, it now happens at least once a year (hockey and soccer). It's maddening and painful. Can pop back in and gut out soccer with brace, can't for hockey. I'd rather take a hammer to my wrist than have shoulder issues. Clear bias here lol. Oh and as I mentioned previously, the surgical options suck and have a high failure/relapse rate.
This two week stretch concerns me and I can easily see them going 2-5. They usually suck in afternoon games and already lost 2x to Philly, we suck against Columbus, probably lose to the Oilers and wouldn't be surprised if they lost to the Sens. Beat the Pens and Flames.
Alex NJD
Registered User
Last few days seen a lot of people mention the downfall of the roster we had in 22-23 to now as well as our recent scoring woes and decided to take a deeper dive.
Top 6 in even strength ice time in 22-23 was Hughes, Meier, Bratt, Hischier, Mercer, Palat (Haula and Tatar were a very close 7-8, the margin between 4th and 8th was 45 seconds). Timo was only here for the final 1/4 of the season and Palat missed 33 games so all of them played considerable top 6 time. The rest of the lineup was filled with a combo of Sharangovich, Zetterlund, Boqvist, McLeod, Wood and Bastian. In the playoffs Sharangovich/Wood and Boqvist/Lazar split time.
All of the players from the top 8 are Devils in 24-25 but the only remaining guys from the bottom group are Bastian, who was last among regulars in ice time, and Lazar who only played a handful of regular season games. The problems stand out pretty obviously, the decline of 5-8 in the top group and the failure to adequately replace the bottom group.
Palat
22-23 8G 15A 23P in 49 games. 54.1 CF% 54.54xGF%
23-24 11G 20A 31P in 71 games 54.88 CF% 58.17 xGF%
24-25 17G 13A 30P in 80 game pace 50.1 CF% 56.56 xGF%
In 22-23 he commonly played with Nico/Bratt and had good results, also had better analytic results in less time playing with Jack and/or Haula. In 23-24 he played majority with Nico and Bratt and both actual results and analytics agree all 3 played far better together then apart. This year he's spent like 80% of his icetime with Jack/Bratt. Smaller sample sizes, but they've both been better without him while he has struggled away from them, both actual results and analytics (more on this later). The last two years Palat, while not putting up lots of points, seemed to be impacting the game in other ways and making life easier for his teammates. This year his game has declined to the point where you can't even try to defend the lack of points. He is almost 34 and at best a 3rd liner, and not someone who should glue to your two dynamic players every night.
Haula
22-23 14G 27A 41P in 80 games 55.15 CF% 56.7 xGF%
23-24 16G 19A 35P in 76 games 53.11 CF% 55.35 xGF%
24-25 7G 8A 15P in 70 games pace 46.09 CF% 46.87 xGF%
In 22-23 he did benefit from spending half his time on Jack’s wing. However the pair put up better actual results and analytic results together then when they were apart. Still even when Haula was centering the 3rd line he put up a solid 52.8 CF% and 52.6 xGF% playing well with the likes of Palat/Tatar/Boqvist/Wood/Zetterlund. In 23-24 Haula again spent half his time with Jack and the other half centering a line. Jack’s numbers were pretty even with or without Haula. Haula once again had a very respectable 53.65 CF% and 54.99 xGF% without Jack. This year the numbers speak for themselves, he’s had terrible actual and analytic results. His 3 most common linemates Cotter, Mercer, and Noesen all suffer drops in every analytic ranging from 6-12% when they are playing with Haula. Goal share is worse. Cotter drops from 53% to 36%. Noesen from 58% to 43%. Mercer 65% to 41%. He is simply not an NHL player at this point and drags down his teammates. He was a great 3C or middle 6 winger for the last 2 seasons. I don’t blame Fitz for not predicting this sudden and massive falloff. He should not be anywhere near this team next season. I really think we need to buy out his last year, far more than Palat.
Tatar
22-23 20G 28A 48P in 82 games 57.4 CF% 62.18 xGF%
24-25 8G 12A 20P in 75 games pace 53.6 CF% 51.26 xGF%
Won’t say much, I think everyone kind of knew 22-23 was an outlier considering his bad 21-22 and 23-24. His numbers this year aren’t awful for a bottom 6 player but he doesn’t provide anything aside from occasional offense making him pretty lackluster overall. Expecting him to come anywhere close to his 22-23 production would be delusional. In fact Fitz still never replaced his top 6 production. He won’t be a Devil next season. This offseason Fitz needs to add a legit top 6 player and not fall back on next year's versions of Noesen/Tatar.
Mercer
22-23 27G 29A 56P in 82 games 51.71 CF% 55.54 xGF%
23-24 20G 13A 33P in 82 games 49.36 CF% 49.63 xGF%
24-25 17G 17A 34P in 82 games pace 50.2 CF% 51.33 xGF%
Biggest disappointment of this year IMO. I think Fitz, like most of us, hoped that 23-24 was just an off year and was relying on Mercer to return to 22-23 levels of production. Unfortunately 24-25 Mercer has basically been 23-24 Mercer part 2 and much like Tatar, Fitz has yet to replace that top 6 production from 2 years ago. His two most common linemates, Timo/Nico have much better numbers without him. Aside from 22-23 most of our top guys have actually done better away from Mercer. I still think Mercer can be a useful player going forward but I don’t want him penciled in anywhere higher than 3RW if he remains a Devil going into next season.
Going into 23-24 Fitz replaced Tatar with Toffoli, but Mercer regressed, so we went from 6 legit top 6 players to 5. With the trade of Toffoli, no big moves, and no bounce backs from anyone else we currently sit at 4 legit top 6 players
The last members of that top 9 was a combo of Sharangovich/Boqvist and Fitz did at least replace that production with Noesen, tho at the cost of speed for Grit/Size which is fine in a vacuum.
In addition to the struggles of the top 9 compared to the 22-23 team, we still haven’t iced a 4th line anywhere close to as effective as the BMW line. Last year criminal activity and injuries forced the Devils to ice Chris f***ing Tierney as a bottom 6 C for a majority of the season. Though at least Lazar had a great season. Going into this year it looked like Lazar was a solid option for 4C after that strong 23-24 season. Bastian was still here and Fitz brought in Cotter to bring some of the same elements Wood brought. Unfortunately, much like Haula, Lazar’s numbers have absolutely nosedived.
Lazar
23-24 7G 18A 25P in 71 games 48.32 CF% 52.32 xGF% (53.23 actual G%)
24-25 3G 4A 7P pace in 56 games 42.17 CF% 42.67 xGF% (43.75 actual G%)
His numbers have somehow tanked worse than Haulas, once again our regular 4C is just not an NHL caliber player. You would think that after watching the aforementioned Chris Tierney after last season Fitz would have bolstered our center depth in case anything happened but all we got was Justin Dowling, a definition JAG 14th forward type who has still been better than our other bottom 6 centers.
Bastian is another JAG who rode McLeod’s coattails. 22-23 and 23-24 the duo played exceptionally well together. From 20-21 to 23-24 the duo improved with every year and over that span managed a positive xGF and actual goal share despite Ruff relying on them for heavy defensive minutes. Their chemistry and McLeod's speed and puck carrying ability definitely covered for some of Bastians weaknesses. I will say that this year Bastian has been cursed playing 78% of his 5v5 minutes with Lazar as has been pretty good in the other 22% but that’s also a small sample size ( 57.26 CF% and 63.45 xGF% 73 minutes). Still I think it’s probably time for a goodbye. I’d bet Bastian doesn’t get an NHL contract and signs a 2-way this offseason.
Another point about BMW is Ruff relied on them for some tough defensive minutes, especially McLeod and Bastian. In 22-23 McLeod had a dzone start rate of 65%, Nico and Haula both sat at ~51% for reference, and got to play some easier minutes thanks to BM. The fact BMW was positive in goal share despite that was a cherry on top. With our awful bottom 6 this year Keefe has been either forced to give Nico more defensive starts or stomach giving up more chances/momentum/goals against with the warm bodies out there instead.
Smaller note, I do think our Dcore in 22-23 was better in transition. Luke effectively replaced Severson in terms of transition play but while not their bread and butter the Graves-Marino pairing was better at getting the puck up ice then Siegs-Kovy. I do think letting Kovy walk and having the likes of Hamilton-Luke-Nemec (or Casey) on different pairings will help out the offense. I feel recent events back this up with Kovy playing worse without Siegs (tonight’s game against Dallas didn’t help)
Fitz (or whoever the GM may be) has a retool of the forward group ahead of them. IMO the team needs at the very least 1 top 6 winger, (preferably 2) a proper 3C, and a proper 4C in the offseason. Probably a 4RW to replace Bastian too. Definitely need to regain some of the speed we used to have with those moves.
Haula needs to be bought out for sure, 1.6m in savings and only 800k against in 26-27 is a nobrainer. Palat is a lot tougher to buy out this year (very easy in the final year) 2.4m is a considerable amount of savings but can we find a better 3LW with that money? Maybe? But at the same time he is well respected and liked in the locker room and we saw how trading out Goodrow (possibly the worst full-time player in the NHL this year according to analytics) and Trouba, apparently destroyed the Rags locker room. Mercer has some trade value and I don’t think we can rely on him in a top 6 spot going into next season whatsoever. Tatar, Lazar, Bastian should all be gone (I could see Lazar and Bastian bounce back and be useful NHL players again but we can not afford to bank on that). I don’t think it’s feasible that we have bottom 6 LWs as Palat + Cotter and bottom 6 RWs as Noesen + Mercer considering both pairs make a combined ~7 million.
Minimum 1 top 6 winger is needed. Gritsyuk should slot somewhere into the top 9. Not sure if he can be relied on for top 6, but if we add another top6 winger, a 3C, and a 4C I'll be ok with Gritsyuk/whoever else making up that last spot. I’m not sure how our prospects have performed this year and if they can compete for bottom 6 spots out of camp.
Summary:
-Fitz has yet to replace Tatar and Mercers top 6 production from 22-23 leaving us with 4 top 6 caliber players
-Fitz relied on a return to form for the likes of Mercer/Palat/Tatar and got 0/3
-Haula and Lazar both fell off a cliff and are not NHL level players this year. We have 2 NHL centers on the roster and some warm bodies.
-As a result many bottom 6 players have suffered even worse from having to play with Haula/Lazar
-After losing Wood/McLeod/Boqvist/Sharangovich the only speed we brought in was Cotter, didn’t help the likes of Palat/Tatar/Haula got older
-Goaltending (Markstrom/Daws) and defense (Luke, Dougie, Pesce, Siegs, Dillon, Nemec, Casey) is basically all set except for Luke’s contract going into 25-26. The deadline and offseason focus needs to be a retool of the forward core.
Top 6 in even strength ice time in 22-23 was Hughes, Meier, Bratt, Hischier, Mercer, Palat (Haula and Tatar were a very close 7-8, the margin between 4th and 8th was 45 seconds). Timo was only here for the final 1/4 of the season and Palat missed 33 games so all of them played considerable top 6 time. The rest of the lineup was filled with a combo of Sharangovich, Zetterlund, Boqvist, McLeod, Wood and Bastian. In the playoffs Sharangovich/Wood and Boqvist/Lazar split time.
All of the players from the top 8 are Devils in 24-25 but the only remaining guys from the bottom group are Bastian, who was last among regulars in ice time, and Lazar who only played a handful of regular season games. The problems stand out pretty obviously, the decline of 5-8 in the top group and the failure to adequately replace the bottom group.
Palat
22-23 8G 15A 23P in 49 games. 54.1 CF% 54.54xGF%
23-24 11G 20A 31P in 71 games 54.88 CF% 58.17 xGF%
24-25 17G 13A 30P in 80 game pace 50.1 CF% 56.56 xGF%
In 22-23 he commonly played with Nico/Bratt and had good results, also had better analytic results in less time playing with Jack and/or Haula. In 23-24 he played majority with Nico and Bratt and both actual results and analytics agree all 3 played far better together then apart. This year he's spent like 80% of his icetime with Jack/Bratt. Smaller sample sizes, but they've both been better without him while he has struggled away from them, both actual results and analytics (more on this later). The last two years Palat, while not putting up lots of points, seemed to be impacting the game in other ways and making life easier for his teammates. This year his game has declined to the point where you can't even try to defend the lack of points. He is almost 34 and at best a 3rd liner, and not someone who should glue to your two dynamic players every night.
Haula
22-23 14G 27A 41P in 80 games 55.15 CF% 56.7 xGF%
23-24 16G 19A 35P in 76 games 53.11 CF% 55.35 xGF%
24-25 7G 8A 15P in 70 games pace 46.09 CF% 46.87 xGF%
In 22-23 he did benefit from spending half his time on Jack’s wing. However the pair put up better actual results and analytic results together then when they were apart. Still even when Haula was centering the 3rd line he put up a solid 52.8 CF% and 52.6 xGF% playing well with the likes of Palat/Tatar/Boqvist/Wood/Zetterlund. In 23-24 Haula again spent half his time with Jack and the other half centering a line. Jack’s numbers were pretty even with or without Haula. Haula once again had a very respectable 53.65 CF% and 54.99 xGF% without Jack. This year the numbers speak for themselves, he’s had terrible actual and analytic results. His 3 most common linemates Cotter, Mercer, and Noesen all suffer drops in every analytic ranging from 6-12% when they are playing with Haula. Goal share is worse. Cotter drops from 53% to 36%. Noesen from 58% to 43%. Mercer 65% to 41%. He is simply not an NHL player at this point and drags down his teammates. He was a great 3C or middle 6 winger for the last 2 seasons. I don’t blame Fitz for not predicting this sudden and massive falloff. He should not be anywhere near this team next season. I really think we need to buy out his last year, far more than Palat.
Tatar
22-23 20G 28A 48P in 82 games 57.4 CF% 62.18 xGF%
24-25 8G 12A 20P in 75 games pace 53.6 CF% 51.26 xGF%
Won’t say much, I think everyone kind of knew 22-23 was an outlier considering his bad 21-22 and 23-24. His numbers this year aren’t awful for a bottom 6 player but he doesn’t provide anything aside from occasional offense making him pretty lackluster overall. Expecting him to come anywhere close to his 22-23 production would be delusional. In fact Fitz still never replaced his top 6 production. He won’t be a Devil next season. This offseason Fitz needs to add a legit top 6 player and not fall back on next year's versions of Noesen/Tatar.
Mercer
22-23 27G 29A 56P in 82 games 51.71 CF% 55.54 xGF%
23-24 20G 13A 33P in 82 games 49.36 CF% 49.63 xGF%
24-25 17G 17A 34P in 82 games pace 50.2 CF% 51.33 xGF%
Biggest disappointment of this year IMO. I think Fitz, like most of us, hoped that 23-24 was just an off year and was relying on Mercer to return to 22-23 levels of production. Unfortunately 24-25 Mercer has basically been 23-24 Mercer part 2 and much like Tatar, Fitz has yet to replace that top 6 production from 2 years ago. His two most common linemates, Timo/Nico have much better numbers without him. Aside from 22-23 most of our top guys have actually done better away from Mercer. I still think Mercer can be a useful player going forward but I don’t want him penciled in anywhere higher than 3RW if he remains a Devil going into next season.
Going into 23-24 Fitz replaced Tatar with Toffoli, but Mercer regressed, so we went from 6 legit top 6 players to 5. With the trade of Toffoli, no big moves, and no bounce backs from anyone else we currently sit at 4 legit top 6 players
The last members of that top 9 was a combo of Sharangovich/Boqvist and Fitz did at least replace that production with Noesen, tho at the cost of speed for Grit/Size which is fine in a vacuum.
In addition to the struggles of the top 9 compared to the 22-23 team, we still haven’t iced a 4th line anywhere close to as effective as the BMW line. Last year criminal activity and injuries forced the Devils to ice Chris f***ing Tierney as a bottom 6 C for a majority of the season. Though at least Lazar had a great season. Going into this year it looked like Lazar was a solid option for 4C after that strong 23-24 season. Bastian was still here and Fitz brought in Cotter to bring some of the same elements Wood brought. Unfortunately, much like Haula, Lazar’s numbers have absolutely nosedived.
Lazar
23-24 7G 18A 25P in 71 games 48.32 CF% 52.32 xGF% (53.23 actual G%)
24-25 3G 4A 7P pace in 56 games 42.17 CF% 42.67 xGF% (43.75 actual G%)
His numbers have somehow tanked worse than Haulas, once again our regular 4C is just not an NHL caliber player. You would think that after watching the aforementioned Chris Tierney after last season Fitz would have bolstered our center depth in case anything happened but all we got was Justin Dowling, a definition JAG 14th forward type who has still been better than our other bottom 6 centers.
Bastian is another JAG who rode McLeod’s coattails. 22-23 and 23-24 the duo played exceptionally well together. From 20-21 to 23-24 the duo improved with every year and over that span managed a positive xGF and actual goal share despite Ruff relying on them for heavy defensive minutes. Their chemistry and McLeod's speed and puck carrying ability definitely covered for some of Bastians weaknesses. I will say that this year Bastian has been cursed playing 78% of his 5v5 minutes with Lazar as has been pretty good in the other 22% but that’s also a small sample size ( 57.26 CF% and 63.45 xGF% 73 minutes). Still I think it’s probably time for a goodbye. I’d bet Bastian doesn’t get an NHL contract and signs a 2-way this offseason.
Another point about BMW is Ruff relied on them for some tough defensive minutes, especially McLeod and Bastian. In 22-23 McLeod had a dzone start rate of 65%, Nico and Haula both sat at ~51% for reference, and got to play some easier minutes thanks to BM. The fact BMW was positive in goal share despite that was a cherry on top. With our awful bottom 6 this year Keefe has been either forced to give Nico more defensive starts or stomach giving up more chances/momentum/goals against with the warm bodies out there instead.
Smaller note, I do think our Dcore in 22-23 was better in transition. Luke effectively replaced Severson in terms of transition play but while not their bread and butter the Graves-Marino pairing was better at getting the puck up ice then Siegs-Kovy. I do think letting Kovy walk and having the likes of Hamilton-Luke-Nemec (or Casey) on different pairings will help out the offense. I feel recent events back this up with Kovy playing worse without Siegs (tonight’s game against Dallas didn’t help)
Fitz (or whoever the GM may be) has a retool of the forward group ahead of them. IMO the team needs at the very least 1 top 6 winger, (preferably 2) a proper 3C, and a proper 4C in the offseason. Probably a 4RW to replace Bastian too. Definitely need to regain some of the speed we used to have with those moves.
Haula needs to be bought out for sure, 1.6m in savings and only 800k against in 26-27 is a nobrainer. Palat is a lot tougher to buy out this year (very easy in the final year) 2.4m is a considerable amount of savings but can we find a better 3LW with that money? Maybe? But at the same time he is well respected and liked in the locker room and we saw how trading out Goodrow (possibly the worst full-time player in the NHL this year according to analytics) and Trouba, apparently destroyed the Rags locker room. Mercer has some trade value and I don’t think we can rely on him in a top 6 spot going into next season whatsoever. Tatar, Lazar, Bastian should all be gone (I could see Lazar and Bastian bounce back and be useful NHL players again but we can not afford to bank on that). I don’t think it’s feasible that we have bottom 6 LWs as Palat + Cotter and bottom 6 RWs as Noesen + Mercer considering both pairs make a combined ~7 million.
Minimum 1 top 6 winger is needed. Gritsyuk should slot somewhere into the top 9. Not sure if he can be relied on for top 6, but if we add another top6 winger, a 3C, and a 4C I'll be ok with Gritsyuk/whoever else making up that last spot. I’m not sure how our prospects have performed this year and if they can compete for bottom 6 spots out of camp.
Summary:
-Fitz has yet to replace Tatar and Mercers top 6 production from 22-23 leaving us with 4 top 6 caliber players
-Fitz relied on a return to form for the likes of Mercer/Palat/Tatar and got 0/3
-Haula and Lazar both fell off a cliff and are not NHL level players this year. We have 2 NHL centers on the roster and some warm bodies.
-As a result many bottom 6 players have suffered even worse from having to play with Haula/Lazar
-After losing Wood/McLeod/Boqvist/Sharangovich the only speed we brought in was Cotter, didn’t help the likes of Palat/Tatar/Haula got older
-Goaltending (Markstrom/Daws) and defense (Luke, Dougie, Pesce, Siegs, Dillon, Nemec, Casey) is basically all set except for Luke’s contract going into 25-26. The deadline and offseason focus needs to be a retool of the forward core.
Like a lot of what Fitz has gone I liked the offseason additions....Has he missed on picks yes who hasn't though....He upgraded the defense and goaltending added a new coach ....His mistake this year not doing something about the depth scoring when he called it out months ago but it still takes another team to want to make a deal...Still feel he is a capable GM and will not be fired even if we miss the playoffs....Worst thing he can do now is make a stupid trade giving up youth for a run....Let this team battle without Jack and see what happens maybe make a small move nothing big and if u want Rants get him in offseason as a ufa or Carolina will fleece us....
How do we have the cap for that? Even if we go with guys on ELCs, let the dead weight go, we still have Luke abd what to do with Kovacevic? Those 2 eat up all the new space. Adding $10M is not possible. I think we added Cozens somehow for Mercer (cap purposes) + and then find $3M to be compliant. Cozens would be perfect with 86 and 63
Kovacevic will walk, Luke is playing poorly enough such that he shouldn't get some huge deal.
NJDevs26
Once upon a time...
- Mar 21, 2007
- 69,316
- 35,565
It's an indicator of how things are that Dougie's injury doesn't even register on the richter scale atm.also who knows how long we just lost dougie for
NOT GREAT Y’ALL
Clam Jensen
Registered User
I will say, if they can show the f*** up on time and play how they did after they got their first goal against a legitimately good Dallas team, they might sneak in. Jacks shoulder hangs in the balance. TDL is going to be veeeery interesting.
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