Devils discussion (news, notes and speculation) - part III

[forceten]

If you review the draft, where we picked Stillman didn't have a ton of obvious better players. Matthew Knies, Logan Stankoven, and a few D (Zellweger, Evans, Moser) in the second round...

3rd-7th round the jury's still out... so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

[Ripshot 43]

Anybody got one of dem GDTs?!

 

[Devils Trap]

In what may be significant news here, Siegs is now on LTIR

 

[glenwo2]

You sure it's not a case of the Devils being lambs led to a slaughter today against Dallas?

It wasn't a slaughter but it was another frustrating loss.

 

[RSeen]

If you review the draft, where we picked Stillman didn't have a ton of obvious better players. Matthew Knies, Logan Stankoven, and a few D (Zellweger, Evans, Moser) in the second round...

3rd-7th round the jury's still out... so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

We've had some missteps in our drafting. Holtz obviously and I would easily take Cooley or Wright over Nemec.

 

[HobokenIrish]

Nemec is 21. Might not be a great idea to give up on him so soon

 

[Lou Bloom]

Nemec is 21. Might not be a great idea to give up on him so soon

It's not about giving up on him, It's about readjusting your expectations and realizing that the Devils have a ton of options on RD and are better used trading Nemec for forward help.

 

[theoptimist]

It's okay to punch up.

Tick tock Fitz

 

[NJDevs26]

It's not about giving up on him, It's about readjusting your expectations and realizing that the Devils have a ton of options on RD and are better used trading Nemec for forward help.

What kind of forward help though...you're not likely getting a 21-year old forward back for him. So then the question becomes how win-now do you want to get when you're selling at least slightly low on Nemec after his regression this year?

 

[Lou Bloom]

What kind of forward help though...you're not likely getting a 21-year old forward back for him. So then the question becomes how win-now do you want to get when you're selling at least slightly low on Nemec after his regression this year?

I don't see why you couldn't get a young forward back for him. Montreal would probably be interested between their lack of defensive talent and Slovakia connections with Slaf and Mesar. Someone like Owen Beck or Michael Hage would be two young centers that could be part of a package coming back. Sharks could use a long term RD and have Filip Bystedt. Buffalo has a number of young forwards and a need at RHD long term. And those are just some obvious teams with a clear need at RHD.

 

[guitarguyvic]

You could say our biggest issue short term is forward depth, but I think long term it might be having a guy who was supposed to be a core piece signed long term taking up twice as much cap space as he should for what he brings, and who has displayed little to no chemistry with anyone on this team since the day he got here.

 

[Billdo]

You could say our biggest issue short term is forward depth, but I think long term it might be having a guy who was supposed to be a core piece signed long term taking up twice as much cap space as he should for what he brings, and who has displayed little to no chemistry with anyone on this team since the day he got here.

Square peg in a round hole.

 

[guitarguyvic]

Square peg in a round hole.

It really is disconcerting. The kind of thing that could derail or shorten your cup window.

 

[Triumph]

You could say our biggest issue short term is forward depth, but I think long term it might be having a guy who was supposed to be a core piece signed long term taking up twice as much cap space as he should for what he brings, and who has displayed little to no chemistry with anyone on this team since the day he got here.

Pretending to not understand hockey once again. The long run is longer than you believe or imagine.

Meier with Hischier since he arrived - 56 GF%, 57 xG%

Nico has been worse without Meier, Meier has been worse without Hischier. Possible there's some survivorship bias in there with late-game situations, but on the whole I kind of doubt it.

Meier should be scoring more, he is shooting 7% at even strength this season. A sampling of forwards who have shot 7% at even strength over the last three seasons: William Eklund, Ryan Lomberg, Viktor Arvidsson, Yanni Gourde, Evan Rodrigues. Of the 303 forwards who've played 1750 5v5 minutes over the last 3 seasons, these players rank around 280th. Do we think he's become a 10th percentile shooter long-term?

 

[devsfan8]

Siegs has been moved from IR to LTIR. Gor the cap gurus... does this increase the chances of a trade sooner then deadline day? Is it kore imminent?

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

You could say our biggest issue short term is forward depth, but I think long term it might be having a guy who was supposed to be a core piece signed long term taking up twice as much cap space as he should for what he brings, and who has displayed little to no chemistry with anyone on this team since the day he got here.

so just to be fair, you think Timo Meier should be making ~$4.4 million/year?

 

[guitarguyvic]

Pretending to not understand hockey once again. The long run is longer than you believe or imagine.

Meier with Hischier since he arrived - 56 GF%, 57 xG%

Nico has been worse without Meier, Meier has been worse without Hischier. Possible there's some survivorship bias in there with late-game situations, but on the whole I kind of doubt it.

Meier should be scoring more, he is shooting 7% at even strength this season. A sampling of forwards who have shot 7% at even strength over the last three seasons: William Eklund, Ryan Lomberg, Viktor Arvidsson, Yanni Gourde, Evan Rodrigues. Of the 303 forwards who've played 1750 5v5 minutes over the last 3 seasons, these players rank around 280th. Do we think he's become a 10th percentile shooter long-term?

Serious question…do you actually watch these guys play and take anything from it? It’s pretty damn obvious why Timo’s shooting percentage stinks…I see him constantly failing to get himself open, and regularly flinging shit desperate shots from shit areas while defenders are draped all over him. I see him getting the puck on his stick a lot but then making the wrong decision with it frequently. I see him getting stripped way too often and losing way too many battles for a guy of his supposed skill and size. I see him rarely utilizing his teammates appropriately; he displays the hockey IQ of someone that would typically play much lower in the lineup.

Do I think his shooting percentage will always be this bad? If he keeps playing like this, yes. Will he keep playing like this? Idk…but we are on year three now and I have to say he’s only looked better than this in small samples a few times since we acquired him. Not exactly inspiring a ton of optimism.

 

[My3Sons]

Pretending to not understand hockey once again. The long run is longer than you believe or imagine.

Meier with Hischier since he arrived - 56 GF%, 57 xG%

Nico has been worse without Meier, Meier has been worse without Hischier. Possible there's some survivorship bias in there with late-game situations, but on the whole I kind of doubt it.

Meier should be scoring more, he is shooting 7% at even strength this season. A sampling of forwards who have shot 7% at even strength over the last three seasons: William Eklund, Ryan Lomberg, Viktor Arvidsson, Yanni Gourde, Evan Rodrigues. Of the 303 forwards who've played 1750 5v5 minutes over the last 3 seasons, these players rank around 280th. Do we think he's become a 10th percentile shooter long-term?

According to the NHL edge stats the average forward is shooting approximately 12% this season. I’d expect Meier to be somewhere around that. His struggles this season are a bit baffling to me but hopefully he finishes better than he started.

 

[devsfan8]

I like Timo also. But I can't keep defending him. Good play driving is an excuse. Being a pest is an excuse. Doing little things well is an excuse. He is the highest paid forward on the team. He needs to score goals. PERIOD.

I'd rather he score 30 goals off his butt on a bad bounce then drive play and it amounts to nothing. Timo needs to step up.

We just have to hope upon hope that he finds himself and the back of the net because we need him.

 

[guitarguyvic]

so just to be fair, you think Timo Meier should be making ~$4.4 million/year?

You know there are many players in the league producing more than Timo who are earning not that much more than that right?

Such an obvious bad faith question too, with the precise exact math.

 

[Triumph]

Serious question…do you actually watch these guys play and take anything from it? It’s pretty damn obvious why Timo’s shooting percentage stinks…I see him constantly failing to get himself open, and regularly flinging shit desperate shots from shit areas while defenders are draped all over him. I see him getting the puck on his stick a lot but then making the wrong decision with it frequently. I see him getting stripped way too often and losing way too many battles for a guy of his supposed skill and size. I see him rarely utilizing his teammates appropriately; he displays the hockey IQ of someone that would typically play much lower in the lineup.

All this is confirmation bias. Meier had an incredible chance last night and failed to convert.

Meier's hockey IQ absolutely leaves something to be desired, I agree. If he had a high hockey IQ he'd be prime Jagr - Meier is a big guy who skates very well and has good 1 on 1 skills. He both gets tunnel vision and is not a good passer, which is fine combo to be - he should just be shooting the puck a lot.

What you are describing sounds like one of the worst players the Devils have instead of one of the best. You are letting personal animus color your beliefs. I don't like Meier's game and don't like players who play like he does, but when they're as good as Meier is, they are successful.

Do I think his shooting percentage will always be this bad? If he keeps playing like this, yes. Will he keep playing like this? Idk…but we are on year three now and I have to say he’s only looked better than this in small samples a few times since we acquired him. Not exactly inspiring a ton of optimism.

I don't think it will be, and I think he's playing much better than you are giving him credit for.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

Serious question…do you actually watch these guys play and take anything from it? It’s pretty damn obvious why Timo’s shooting percentage stinks…I see him constantly failing to get himself open, and regularly flinging shit desperate shots from shit areas while defenders are draped all over him. I see him getting the puck on his stick a lot but then making the wrong decision with it frequently. I see him getting stripped way too often and losing way too many battles for a guy of his supposed skill and size. I see him rarely utilizing his teammates appropriately; he displays the hockey IQ of someone that would typically play much lower in the lineup.

Do I think his shooting percentage will always be this bad? If he keeps playing like this, yes. Will he keep playing like this? Idk…but we are on year three now and I have to say he’s only looked better than this in small samples a few times since we acquired him. Not exactly inspiring a ton of optimism.

I think you napped through last game and possibly much of the season? There has been no player on the team that has been robbed of sure goals more than Timo.

But you are correct, you should at all times be very concerned about the worst possibility, no matter how remote.

He was genuinely shit last year for most of the year when he was playing with like 5 separate injuries.

 

[Triumph]

You know there are many players in the league producing more than Timo who are earning not that much more than that right?

Such an obvious bad faith question too, with the precise exact math.

The bad faith is assuming that someone at Meier's age would be earning $4.4 million for the results he's having. You don't know what players are paid.

 

[guitarguyvic]

All this is confirmation bias. Meier had an incredible chance last night and failed to convert.

Meier's hockey IQ absolutely leaves something to be desired, I agree. If he had a high hockey IQ he'd be prime Jagr - Meier is a big guy who skates very well and has good 1 on 1 skills. He both gets tunnel vision and is not a good passer, which is fine combo to be - he should just be shooting the puck a lot.

What you are describing sounds like one of the worst players the Devils have instead of one of the best. You are letting personal animus color your beliefs. I don't like Meier's game and don't like players who play like he does, but when they're as good as Meier is, they are successful.

No I'm not saying he's one of the worst players on the team, I'm grading his performance on a curve. He does those things poorly for a player who is expected to be a top six piece and is taking up the largest slice of the cap on the team.

He did have one great chance last night. Just one. And failed to convert. Which is what happens more frequently than not. If you're hockey IQ stinks, you don't use your teammates well, you don't win battles as frequently as you're expected to, and a huge chunk of your volume shots are crap that probably wouldn't go in 95% of the time...then yeah the least you could do is capitalize on your chances. But he's not even doing that. And this is all in the context of him playing where he plays and getting paid what he gets paid. There are guys all around the league taking up a fraction of the cap that he does who are producing better and more consistently.

I don't think it will be, and I think he's playing much better than you are giving him credit for.

OK, well some of us require more to have this kind of optimism. Hopefully you're right.

The bad faith is assuming that someone at Meier's age would be earning $4.4 million for the results he's having. You don't know what players are paid.

It literally took me 30 seconds to find one...he's 30 years old, makes $5.4 million dollars, and has three less goals but two more points than Timo does. Let's play the guessing game.

Come on.

 

[Triumph]

No I'm not saying he's one of the worst players on the team, I'm grading his performance on a curve. He does those things poorly for a player who is expected to be a top six piece and is taking up the largest slice of the cap on the team.

Funny, I could've sworn I read something about how awful the player was, how he always makes bad decisions, how he passes into traffic and can't get open. That sounds like one of the worst players on the team to me.

He did have one great chance last night. Just one. And failed to convert. Which is what happens more frequently than not. If you're hockey IQ stinks, you don't use your teammates well, you don't win battles as frequently as you're expected to, and a huge chunk of your volume shots are crap that probably wouldn't go in 95% of the time...then yeah the least you could do is capitalize on your chances. But he's not even doing that. And this is all in the context of him playing where he plays and getting paid what he gets paid. There are guys all around the league taking up a fraction of the cap that he does who are producing better and more consistently.

Again, you sound like you are describing the worst player on the team. It's hard to imagine that this player has scored 15 goals already and is on pace for 55 points while not playing on PP1. How many players around the league are managing that while being a significant + player 5v5 with the on-ice xGs to match? Probably not many. But hey, what do I know?

It literally took me 30 seconds to find one...he's 30 years old, makes $5.4 million dollars, and has three less goals but two more points than Timo does. Let's play the guessing game.

Come on.

It took me 2 seconds to remember that 5.4 is more than half of 8.8. I doubt very much he's as good as Timo Meier, but if he is, great, good for that team for getting a bargain. The Devils undoubtedly overpaid for Meier, but not by much, and they have 3 significantly underpaid forwards more than making up for his lack of contribution. That's why they're in a playoff position right now.