Devils discussion (news, notes and speculation) - part III

[Devils731]

So when someone here was nice enough to explain the LTIR intricacies, they mentioned we cannot spend that money; why then can Vegas? (And this isnt to bring into question the validity of Vegas' actions over the last half decade)

Vegas is under the cap this year.

Including all players on LTIR they’re at a little over $87 million with an $88 million cap.

So they’ve been accruing daily cap space, even though the LTIR players have been counting against their cap.

————-

In prior years, Vegas(and Toronto at times) were going over the maximum cap amount because they would get right to the top of the cap, then LTIR the guy, and then use the LTIR overage allowance to exceed the max cap with a replacement.

LTIR was not allowing them to accrue additional cap space, they were stuck at $0 in most situations s

 

[TheBeerNerd]

nm

 

[New Jerseys Devil]

Vegas is under the cap this year.

Including all players on LTIR they’re at a little over $87 million with an $88 million cap.

So they’ve been accruing daily cap space, even though the LTIR players have been counting against their cap.

————-

In prior years, Vegas(and Toronto at times) were going over the maximum cap amount because they would get right to the top of the cap, then LTIR the guy, and then use the LTIR overage allowance to exceed the max cap with a replacement.

LTIR was not allowing them to accrue additional cap space, they were stuck at $0 in most situations s

A lot of good information so Ill ask a specific question. Ive seen the equation of LTIR player's cap - cap space = LTIR pool overage. Wouldnt this, for Vegas, come out to 5,200,000 - 2,316,328 = 2,883,672 allowed overage?

Thanks for helping!

 

[Devils731]

A lot of good information so Ill ask a specific question. Ive seen the equation of LTIR player's cap - cap space = LTIR pool overage. Wouldnt this, for Vegas, come out to 5,200,000 - 2,316,328 = 2,883,672 allowed overage?

Thanks for helping!

We actually can’t calculate it that way because the cap works on a daily basis, even though we think of it on an annual basis.

The formula works as a general concept on how LTIR overage works but we couldn’t use it to work out how overage would actually work for a team at any given moment.

Long Term Injured Reserve (LTIR) - High Level Overview | Puckpedia

To qualify for LTIR, a player must be expected to miss at least 10 NHL Games AND 24 days of the NHL season When a player is on LTIR, a team may exceed the salary cap. Despite the common misconception, LTIR does not remove a Cap Hit from a team’s overall Cap Hit, it just potentially allows the...

puckpedia.com

I think this link gives a rundown on how it’s complicated.

 

[New Jerseys Devil]

We actually can’t calculate it that way because the cap works on a daily basis, even though we think of it on an annual basis.

The formula works as a general concept on how LTIR overage works but we couldn’t use it to work out how overage would actually work for a team at any given moment.

Long Term Injured Reserve (LTIR) - High Level Overview | Puckpedia

To qualify for LTIR, a player must be expected to miss at least 10 NHL Games AND 24 days of the NHL season When a player is on LTIR, a team may exceed the salary cap. Despite the common misconception, LTIR does not remove a Cap Hit from a team’s overall Cap Hit, it just potentially allows the...

puckpedia.com

I think this link gives a rundown on how it’s complicated.

Okay I knew about the daily cap and some of that convoluted mess (lmao)! And looking further at Vegas' cap page it seems their projected is lower than 2.3, around ~750k

So long story short theyd have to wait to determine the overage for the LTIR pool until the final day of the season, wherein itd be that same equation but with the daily (prorated if need be) cap hits?

I think Ive got the right idea now, with a spot or two for learning; thanks again!

 

[dgibb10]

Nah fish, Hamilton already has 30 more o-zone starts then Luke this year. And before you give me gp's, their 5v5 minutes on the season are pretty equal.

60 more o-zone starts then Seig's, despite Sieg's playing more 5v5 minutes.

Meanwhile Luke has 26 more D-zone starts then Ham's, and Sieg's has 60 more.

Usage definitely skews stats.

You must think Cale Makar is incredibly overrated then right?

Because he gets the highest share of ozone starts in the league by a massive margin.

20.25% over the last 3 years. Hamilton is at 12%.

And if you think the gap between Hamilton at 12.06% ozone starts and Luke at 11.11% ozone starts is statistically significant, I can't even imagine what you'd say about a gap 8x that size.

ZONE STARTS ARE NOT MEANINGFUL OUTSIDE OF EXTREME OUTLIERS

 

[New Jerseys Devil]

You must think Cale Makar is incredibly overrated then right?

Because he gets the highest share of ozone starts in the league by a massive margin.

20.25% over the last 3 years. Hamilton is at 12%.

And if you think the gap between Hamilton at 12.06% ozone starts and Luke at 11.11% ozone starts is statistically significant, I can't even imagine what you'd say about a gap 8x that size.

ZONE STARTS ARE NOT MEANINGFUL OUTSIDE OF EXTREME OUTLIERS

Im not commenting on the actual conversation at hand because Id have to read back...

but I do believe Cale Makar is overrated!! I think he is an incredible offensive defenseman but gets heralded as a two-way player, when I see an insufficient defender for his pedigree

Id take Quinn Hughes over him anyday! And thats without Jack and Luke as his brothers!!

 

[dgibb10]

You are a strong advocate for Dr. Evil. He needs a good supporting voice and you do a good job with it. I don't think anyone is trying to argue that on balance he isn't a very good defender in terms of his total impact. He suffers from two flaws. First, he only has one gear. He makes due with it and as long as he doesn't get caught flatfooted at the opposing blue line it's typically not a big deal, but it's noticeable to the eyeball test which some folks just don't like. Second, he's paid at what is still almost the top of the scale for defenders. With NJ having to make some decisions cap wise that will rankle some folks who, rightly or wrongly, expect that Luke will get a similar AAV on a long term deal and that would mean giving him the keys to the car. The issues you raise and passionately defend aren't really going to change that calculus for those looking to move Dr. Evil. His good advanced stats won't make him skate faster or change pace instantly and they won't lower his AAV. You've suggested that NJ can bring back Luke and Kovy next season without roster surgery but some folks are struggling a bit with that (me included and I'll touch on that below) or they want to do some roster remake and see Dougie as a high priced piece that might be moved to bring in a different player more to their liking. Dougie strikes me as a good guy and I like him on the team. He's a calm veteran presence and as you've noted the score tends to be in NJ's favor with him involved. But I understand the counter argument of moving him this summer when he is still capable to avoid a Subban like drop off. Hopefully he has a strong stretch run and NJ makes some noise in the playoffs so management isn't trying to remake the roster.

OK, on the cap stuff. With Allen's resurgence, does NJ have to allocate maybe $3 mil for him for next year? If so, can they still bring back both Luke and Kovy if they combine for somewhere between $13 to $14 mil combined? If so can they cover any bonus overage Luke may get this season?

I'm still leaning towards they let Kovacevic leave in free agency to give Nemec a full and fair chance to sink or swim. Just a guess but we will see. Over the next two or three years they can phase out Dougie, Dillon, and Kovacevic leaving space for Nemec, Casey, and Silayev to earn. Hopefully that works.

Kovy has had a downturn in play (which was somewhat predictable) that doesn't make me inclined in giving him a long term contract anymore tbh, especially coupled with Nemec's statement, I think you bring in Nemec next year as well.

If you are heavy on bringing back Allen you have to make cuts elsewhere yes (or at least skip on upgrades)

That team I had previously suggested did not have 3 mill allocated to a backup G.

This roster (would have to go to 22 guys) would be exactly at the cap (I swear I didn't do it on purpose it just turned out that way).

So yes, I think you still CAN bring back them all if you want to.

Do I want to do this? No, but I would like to illustrate that, if it is what you wanted, straight "running it back" could be done.

I think if you negotiate well luke could sign an 8.6x8 (or maybe you 8.6x7 to get him to UFA a bit early for that 400k AAV haircut). I think 4 mill is my hardline on kovacevic tbh.

We're currently set to not pay any ELC overages to luke. I would be (if we do make deadline adds), buying retention and double retention to keep it that way.

I see the merits to moving dougie to lengthen the window by getting meaningful assets we can use for the long term pieces.

I disagree with those suggesting we'd be better off with the cap space than him, I think they underestimate his impact on the PP, how much he helps Jack and Bratt, and how much pieces are going to cost in UFA this year.

And I have issues with those who make claims about what NJD can and can't afford cap wise without actually having ever put the roster together and seen the cost. (specifically those who somehow think we need to move dougie to afford Luke, who's had long term money earmarked for him since he signed his ELC), or those who suggest moves with long term cap implications without actually putting together the roster and thinking about how the money fits.

NJD has no immediate need for hamilton's cap space. NJD can afford all the core pieces while keeping hamilton. His money, if you move him, would be spent on luxury items as well. I don't like the idea of going to fill/upgrade multiple spots this offseason, and if you try and upgrade depth with like 3-4 middle/bottom 6 items I don't think that gets you more than some bad contracts in UFA (a lot of contracts like Dillon's so to speak).

So it comes down to.

Hamilton as a PP1 engine and offensive dmen for overall 20 minutes a night.
Some expensive winger with jack and bratt+PP2 for about 15 minutes a night, who we have to pay for his PP1 production on another team.
Some really overkill 3C to probably play 15.5-17.5 minutes a night (depending on if they PK).

I think hamilton's impact is greater. And then, I think, when he has 3.25 mill x2 real money left and 9 mill AAV on an 105 mill cap, I think THAT is when you move him. To reallocate that money to a long term goalie answer

 

[devilsblood]

You must think Cale Makar is incredibly overrated then right?

Because he gets the highest share of ozone starts in the league by a massive margin.

20.25% over the last 3 years. Hamilton is at 12%.

And if you think the gap between Hamilton at 12.06% ozone starts and Luke at 11.11% ozone starts is statistically significant, I can't even imagine what you'd say about a gap 8x that size.

ZONE STARTS ARE NOT MEANINGFUL OUTSIDE OF EXTREME OUTLIERS

I dont think Makar nor Hamilton are over rated.

But usage does skew the stats.

 

[dgibb10]

I dont think Makar nor Hamilton are over rated.

But usage does skew the stats.

a 1% difference in ozone starts is not meaningful enough to skew the stats at all.

Especially when for example we're comparing Hamilton to dmen on other pairings.

The zone starts are absolutely nothing in comparison to the single biggest impacting factor, which is who your d partner is.

Hamilton has been playing with BY FAR the devils worst dman in Dillon.

 

[Clam Jensen]

Take a Judge Holden quote but make it romantic-sounding and attach it to this Valentine.

We need Judge Holden to replace MacDermid

 

[devilsblood]

a 1% difference in ozone starts is not meaningful enough to skew the stats at all.

Especially when for example we're comparing Hamilton to dmen on other pairings.

The zone starts are absolutely nothing in comparison to the single biggest impacting factor, which is who your d partner is.

Hamilton has been playing with BY FAR the devils worst dman in Dillon.

You need to recheck your math.

Ham's has 30% more o-zone starts then Luke. About 80% more then Siegs.

Sieg's has about 80% more d-zone start then Ham's. Luke 25% more.

 

[devilsblood]

Further Sieg's plays 36% of his minutes vs elite opposition. Kova at 37%.

Ham's is at 25%.

Luke at 25% Pesce at 27%.

So Sieg's and Kova are clearly playing the role of defensive d-men. Ham's the offensive d-man(with Dillon along for the ride) Luke and Pesce somewhere in the middle.

 

[Devils731]

You need to recheck your math.

Ham's has 30% more o-zone starts then Luke. About 80% more then Siegs.

Sieg's has about 80% more d-zone start then Ham's. Luke 25% more.

I think the point is that the zone start stats are kind of a flawed way to look at things when the majority of starts are on the fly.

This is all 5 on 5.

Hamilton had 60 more offensive zone starts than Siegenthaler but Hamilton has 1,142 shift starts and Siegs has 1,122.

So 50 starts is around 5% of the total starts or about 1 per game. Either way, that’s a difference but not a huge difference.

Dougie gets 2.4 offensive zone starts per game and Siegs gets 1.35. As a percentage that is a big difference, as a raw number it’s not. It’s small as a raw number because most shifts don’t start in a zone anyway.

 

[devilsfan950003]

I don't like the idea of letting guys with serious draft pick value just leave for free. If a decision has been made that he's not apart of the long term future I would deal him at the deadline for picks or a player. I know we're considered a contender, but I don't think we are a serious enough one to keep Kovacevic and then let him walk for nothing.

I hope they re-sign Kovy as he's a perfect fit as Siegs partner. However, if he's not going to be re-signed, then bring up Nemec now. Trade Kovy at trade deadline in March. Save draft assets for the off-season.

I'm not convinced this team is a contender yet. Playoff bound, yes.

 

[devilsblood]

One more.

d-zone starts when leading by one goal.

Kova leads the team with 43. (32% ozone starts).
Sieg's is 2nd with 37. (27% ozone starts).
Ham's has the least of the 6 regulars with 13. (60%).

So basically 3x as many. If we had late game stats I'd bet the disparity would be even more drastic.

The converse is true when the team is trailing.

47 o-zone starts for Hams. 72% ozone start.
15 for Kova. 36%.

When down by 1. It's 23-6 Ham's vs Kova. 71% vs 27%.

And this all makes sense, you want your better offensive player out there when trailing, and your better defensive player out there when leading, but this all skews the stats.

 

[devilsblood]

I think the point is that the zone start stats are kind of a flawed way to look at things when the majority of starts are on the fly.

View attachment 977349
This is all 5 on 5.

Hamilton had 60 more offensive zone starts than Siegenthaler but Hamilton has 1,142 shift starts and Siegs has 1,122.

So 50 starts is around 5% of the total starts or about 1 per game. Either way, that’s a difference but not a huge difference.

Dougie gets 2.4 offensive zone starts per game and Siegs gets 1.35. As a percentage that is a big difference, as a raw number it’s not. It’s small as a raw number because most shifts don’t start in a zone anyway.

And in terms of per game rates Dougie is on for what? 1 more shot per game then Siegs.

That one O-zone start more per game plays into that.



,

 

[devilsblood]

I'll keep going, cause why not?

5v5
Kova has played 936 minutes.
Ham's has played 886 minutes.

5v5 with Bratt and Hughes.
Kova has played 182 minutes.
Hams has played 257 minutes.


TOI with Nico.

Hams 188 minutes. 61% ozone (edit) faceoffs. 99 ozone. 61 dzone.
Kova 302 minutes. 32% ozone. 79 d-zone, 161 dzone.

Situation after situation, personnel decision after personnel decision we see Kova getting the more defensive deployment, and Hams the more offensive deployment. And that makes sense, Hams is way better offensively, Kova defensively but while one of these factors may not make a big impact on the stats, they all add up. Especially when you see such a disparity across the board.

 

[Billdo]

I hope they re-sign Kovy as he's a perfect fit as Siegs partner. However, if he's not going to be re-signed, then bring up Nemec now. Trade Kovy at trade deadline in March. Save draft assets for the off-season.

I'm not convinced this team is a contender yet. Playoff bound, yes.

If they're playing well heading into the deadline there's no way they trade Kovacevic especially if Siegenthaler is still out or doesn't look like he's 100%.

 

[Billdo]

Guy on Reddit, I know I know, said he wouldn't trade Casey or Mercer straight up for McCann AND Bjorkstrand because Casey's the best prospect in the system by far and Mercer has the potential to be a 20-30 goal scorer while not being a disappointment this year bc he's pacing the same as last year. Am I the only one who thinks this is nuts?

 

[dgibb10]

You need to recheck your math.

Ham's has 30% more o-zone starts then Luke. About 80% more then Siegs.

Sieg's has about 80% more d-zone start then Ham's. Luke 25% more.

This is a disgusting use of statistics lmao.

Trying to use relative numbers of incredibly small values to pretend zone starts are more meaningful than they are.

Hamiltons starts 12.01% of his 5v5 shifts in the ozone, or about 2.4 a game
Luke 11.11%, or about 2.2 a game.
Siegs yes is at a very low 6.86%, or about 1.4 a game.

But hey, 80% sounds a lot more massive then "Keefe sends out Hamilton for an ozone faceoff 1 extra time per game compared to Siegenthaler and 1 extra time for every 5 games compared to Luke"

The gap in zone starts between Luke and Dougie is MEANINGLESS. Statistically insignificant.

Maybe the gap with Siegenthaler approaches relevance, but no shit the defensive dman plays d and the best offensive dman plays O.

You're pretending there's some conspiracy here, or that Hamilton's deployment is anything abnormal or carrying his results.

You could look at every single elite dman in the league and you'd find a lot more ozone starts than dzone starts.

I swear every time I see zone starts mentioned it's some awful argument to push an agenda.

Did you know Jaccob Slavin has the 8th highest share of ozone starts in the league this year

There are maybe 10 dmen in the league who's zone starts are major relevant impacts.

Makar
Fox
McAvoy
Josi

All elite dman in the high teens for ozone start %

Taylor Raddysh (this is the funkiest one you'll find with a lower end dman getting 16%-6% splits)


And on the other side

Parayko
Tanev
Okleksiak

doing a ton of heavy lifting on the dzone.

Beyond the extremes, zone starts are really not relevant. At all


The most statistically meaningful you'll find from zone starts is that Washington has a SHOCKINGLY bad rate of ozone to dzone faceoffs/zone starts for such a good team.

I'll keep going, cause why not?

5v5
Kova has played 936 minutes.
Ham's has played 886 minutes.

5v5 with Bratt and Hughes.
Kova has played 182 minutes.
Hams has played 257 minutes.


TOI with Nico.

Hams 188 minutes. 61% ozone (edit) faceoffs. 99 ozone. 61 dzone.
Kova 302 minutes. 32% ozone. 79 d-zone, 161 dzone.

Situation after situation, personnel decision after personnel decision we see Kova getting the more defensive deployment, and Hams the more offensive deployment. And that makes sense, Hams is way better offensively, Kova defensively but while one of these factors may not make a big impact on the stats, they all add up. Especially when you see such a disparity across the board.

It truly is a mystery why sheldon keefe likes to send Hamilton out with Jack and Bratt.

 

[devilsblood]

Guy on Reddit, I know I know, said he wouldn't trade Casey or Mercer straight up for McCann AND Bjorkstrand because Casey's the best prospect in the system by far and Mercer has the potential to be a 20-30 goal scorer while not being a disappointment this year bc he's pacing the same as last year. Am I the only one who thinks this is nuts?

Because it's 2 for 1 in terms of current NHL players we definitely get better this year, and I'd say most likely better next year. Very possible we win this in year 3 even if Bjorkstrand walks, just via McCann vs Mercer.

But Mercer could be better then either McCann or Bjorkstrand in year 3. I don't think that's crazy, and Casey could be the best player in the group in year 3 and for years beyond that. 5 years down the road if McCann and Bjork are off the team while Mercer is scoring 25+ and Casey is tier below Quinn Hughes then we'd be wishing that trade didn't happened......unless we win the cup in the next couple years.

Also have to consider neither guy is a legit center and then there is also the salary cap situation, and these may be the most important factors in this hypothetical.

 

[dgibb10]

And in terms of per game rates Dougie is on for what? 1 more shot per game then Siegs.

That one O-zone start more per game plays into that.



,

A single ozone start does not have NEARLY the impact that you seem to think it does for some reason

 

[devilsblood]

This is a disgusting use of statistics lmao.

Trying to use relative numbers of incredibly small values to pretend zone starts are more meaningful than they are.

Hamiltons starts 12.01% of his 5v5 shifts in the ozone, or about 2.4 a game
Luke 11.11%, or about 2.2 a game.
Siegs yes is at a very low 6.86%, or about 1.4 a game.

But hey, 80% sounds a lot more massive then "Keefe sends out Hamilton for an ozone faceoff 1 extra time per game compared to Siegenthaler and 1 extra time for every 5 games compared to Luke"

The gap in zone starts between Luke and Dougie is MEANINGLESS. Statistically insignificant.

Maybe the gap with Siegenthaler approaches relevance, but no shit the defensive dman plays d and the best offensive dman plays O.

You're pretending there's some conspiracy here, or that Hamilton's deployment is anything abnormal or carrying his results.

You could look at every single elite dman in the league and you'd find a lot more ozone starts than dzone starts.

I swear every time I see zone starts mentioned it's some awful argument to push an agenda.

Did you know Jaccob Slavin has the 8th highest share of ozone starts in the league this year

There are maybe 10 dmen in the league who's zone starts are major relevant impacts.

Makar
Fox
McAvoy
Josi

All elite dman in the high teens for ozone start %

Taylor Raddysh (this is the funkiest one you'll find with a lower end dman getting 16%-6% splits)


And on the other side

Parayko
Tanev
Okleksiak

doing a ton of heavy lifting on the dzone.

Beyond the extremes, zone starts are really not relevant. At all


The most statistically meaningful you'll find from zone starts is that Washington has a SHOCKINGLY bad rate of ozone to dzone faceoffs/zone starts for such a good team. View attachment 977383


View attachment 977387
It truly is a mystery why sheldon keefe likes to send Hamilton out with Jack and Bratt.

I said 80% only because it's factual, but this was only a retort to you saying it's 1% which is not factual.

And I've said a bunch of times Hamilton is the better offensive player and that's why he is out there with those guys. So it's no mystery to me. You're punching at clouds here. (although should be noted the respective xGF's are not that different and Dougie with those 2 is pushing 80% ozone faceoffs)

 

[My3Sons]

I had a bunch of them over the years, can't find them all except a few.

Bleeds two favorites and of course Zacha when he was on a brutal goalless streak.

View attachment 977220View attachment 977221View attachment 977222

When you’ve been married forever and you haven’t lost your sense of humor you can give your wife a romantic valentine