Devils discussion (news, notes and speculation) - part III

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Srt of an aside here, but the important thing to remember about OZ start % etc is that 60%+ of shifts start on the fly and another 15% or so start in the neutral zone, and none of those are included in that percentage. So even when you see a number is like 70% WOW it's far less impactful than you might think because we're actually talking about something like 25% of total shifts they start in the game.

Also some people forget to limit it to 5on5 stats and in that case it will obviously be biased one way or the other depending on deployment.

Anyway, stats are good, but context is key.
Yup. That number may feel big, but in reality.

Hamilton starts 2.403 shifts per game in the ozone 5v5
Luke starts 2.229 shifts per game in the ozone 5v5.

Over an 82 game season that difference would amount to a whopping 14 extra ozone shifts for hamilton
 
Just got the Devils invoice for next season, I figured it was going to arrive during this break but they didn't actually raise the prices on my tickets, I'm absolutely shocked. Kudos to the team for that. That being said invoices should still not be allowed to be sent out until the regular season is over.

Playoff invoice came too and they are always really insane, but the odds they play 16 home games is slim to none anyway but if they somehow did it's almost the same cost as a full season lol
 
At 5v5 it should go down for dougie, but on the counterpoint it should go UP on the PP.

Overall, at all strengths, Hamilton:

4.98 xGF/60, and 4.94 GF/60 (both of those marks are 1st in the league btw)
You are a strong advocate for Dr. Evil. He needs a good supporting voice and you do a good job with it. I don't think anyone is trying to argue that on balance he isn't a very good defender in terms of his total impact. He suffers from two flaws. First, he only has one gear. He makes due with it and as long as he doesn't get caught flatfooted at the opposing blue line it's typically not a big deal, but it's noticeable to the eyeball test which some folks just don't like. Second, he's paid at what is still almost the top of the scale for defenders. With NJ having to make some decisions cap wise that will rankle some folks who, rightly or wrongly, expect that Luke will get a similar AAV on a long term deal and that would mean giving him the keys to the car. The issues you raise and passionately defend aren't really going to change that calculus for those looking to move Dr. Evil. His good advanced stats won't make him skate faster or change pace instantly and they won't lower his AAV. You've suggested that NJ can bring back Luke and Kovy next season without roster surgery but some folks are struggling a bit with that (me included and I'll touch on that below) or they want to do some roster remake and see Dougie as a high priced piece that might be moved to bring in a different player more to their liking. Dougie strikes me as a good guy and I like him on the team. He's a calm veteran presence and as you've noted the score tends to be in NJ's favor with him involved. But I understand the counter argument of moving him this summer when he is still capable to avoid a Subban like drop off. Hopefully he has a strong stretch run and NJ makes some noise in the playoffs so management isn't trying to remake the roster.

OK, on the cap stuff. With Allen's resurgence, does NJ have to allocate maybe $3 mil for him for next year? If so, can they still bring back both Luke and Kovy if they combine for somewhere between $13 to $14 mil combined? If so can they cover any bonus overage Luke may get this season?

I'm still leaning towards they let Kovacevic leave in free agency to give Nemec a full and fair chance to sink or swim. Just a guess but we will see. Over the next two or three years they can phase out Dougie, Dillon, and Kovacevic leaving space for Nemec, Casey, and Silayev to earn. Hopefully that works.
 
Just got the Devils invoice for next season, I figured it was going to arrive during this break but they didn't actually raise the prices on my tickets, I'm absolutely shocked. Kudos to the team for that. That being said invoices should still not be allowed to be sent out until the regular season is over.

Playoff invoice came too and they are always really insane, but the odds they play 16 home games is slim to none anyway but if they somehow did it's almost the same cost as a full season lol
Just saw my invoice for playoffs. First two rounds not bad

Conf and cup, WOOF. But still cheaper than what it would be for regular folks

I wouldn’t mind Metro 3 now and start on the road haha * @ZachaFlockaFlame intensifies*
 
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If the US wins on Saturday in regulation vs Canada they are automatically in the final no matter what happens in the Sweden game on Monday.

USA would have 6 points, Finland could max out at 6 but USA would have the tie breaker for winning this game and then Canada could only max out at 5 points so yeah go beat Canada in regulation on Saturday night and they are automatically in the final no matter what.
 
If the US wins on Saturday in regulation vs Canada they are automatically in the final no matter what happens in the Sweden game on Monday.

USA would have 6 points, Finland could max out at 6 but USA would have the tie breaker for winning this game and then Canada could only max out at 5 points so yeah go beat Canada in regulation on Saturday night and they are automatically in the final no matter what.
Is that how this works? Was not aware.

Which makes these games important.

Cool, thanks.
 
You are a strong advocate for Dr. Evil. He needs a good supporting voice and you do a good job with it. I don't think anyone is trying to argue that on balance he isn't a very good defender in terms of his total impact. He suffers from two flaws. First, he only has one gear. He makes due with it and as long as he doesn't get caught flatfooted at the opposing blue line it's typically not a big deal, but it's noticeable to the eyeball test which some folks just don't like. Second, he's paid at what is still almost the top of the scale for defenders. With NJ having to make some decisions cap wise that will rankle some folks who, rightly or wrongly, expect that Luke will get a similar AAV on a long term deal and that would mean giving him the keys to the car. The issues you raise and passionately defend aren't really going to change that calculus for those looking to move Dr. Evil. His good advanced stats won't make him skate faster or change pace instantly and they won't lower his AAV. You've suggested that NJ can bring back Luke and Kovy next season without roster surgery but some folks are struggling a bit with that (me included and I'll touch on that below) or they want to do some roster remake and see Dougie as a high priced piece that might be moved to bring in a different player more to their liking. Dougie strikes me as a good guy and I like him on the team. He's a calm veteran presence and as you've noted the score tends to be in NJ's favor with him involved. But I understand the counter argument of moving him this summer when he is still capable to avoid a Subban like drop off. Hopefully he has a strong stretch run and NJ makes some noise in the playoffs so management isn't trying to remake the roster.

OK, on the cap stuff. With Allen's resurgence, does NJ have to allocate maybe $3 mil for him for next year? If so, can they still bring back both Luke and Kovy if they combine for somewhere between $13 to $14 mil combined? If so can they cover any bonus overage Luke may get this season?

I'm still leaning towards they let Kovacevic leave in free agency to give Nemec a full and fair chance to sink or swim. Just a guess but we will see. Over the next two or three years they can phase out Dougie, Dillon, and Kovacevic leaving space for Nemec, Casey, and Silayev to earn. Hopefully that works.
In order, I prefer (1) trading Hamilton and running next year with Nemec and Kovacevic, then (2) letting Kovacevic walk and running next year with Nemec and Hamilton (not ideal), then finally (3) trading Nemec and keeping Hamilton for one more year + Kovacevic.

A lot of it comes down to trade value - If I'm Fitz I initiate calls on both Hamilton and Nemec and see what the value looks like.

If Hamilton can be traded for a skilled forward or a couple pieces (maybe 2nd and cost controlled third line fwd) that's enticing and makes me think twice. If it's a cap dump where the Devils need to send a 2nd for future considerations, I'm less excited. Re: Nemo, I'd want a 1st and roster player or A-level young talent. If he gets the Jiricek offer, I'm less excited.

Finally, I'm also looking closely at Seamus Casey. I'm wondering if he's the OFD that replaces Hamilton next year. If you trade Nemec, I'd hope that Fitz (1) re-signs Kovy and (2) is bullish on Seamus Casey taking over for Hamilton after 25-26 (because I suspect Dougie will be regressing at that point).
 
Srt of an aside here, but the important thing to remember about OZ start % etc is that 60%+ of shifts start on the fly and another 15% or so start in the neutral zone, and none of those are included in that percentage. So even when you see a number is like 70% WOW it's far less impactful than you might think because we're actually talking about something like 25% of total shifts they start in the game.

Also some people forget to limit it to 5on5 stats and in that case it will obviously be biased one way or the other depending on deployment.

Anyway, stats are good, but context is key.
I definitely don't, but it should also be noted that guys who take a ton of d-zone faceoffs and not mamy o-zone faceoffs often matchup against the opposition's best players. And vice versa for guys who don't get d-zone faceoffs.

For me O-zone faceoff% is more of an indicator. Hamilton usage is weighted much more heavily towards offensive situations. Sieg's and Kova towards defense.
 
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Yup. That number may feel big, but in reality.

Hamilton starts 2.403 shifts per game in the ozone 5v5
Luke starts 2.229 shifts per game in the ozone 5v5.

Over an 82 game season that difference would amount to a whopping 14 extra ozone shifts for hamilton
Nah fish, Hamilton already has 30 more o-zone starts then Luke this year. And before you give me gp's, their 5v5 minutes on the season are pretty equal.

60 more o-zone starts then Seig's, despite Sieg's playing more 5v5 minutes.

Meanwhile Luke has 26 more D-zone starts then Ham's, and Sieg's has 60 more.

Usage definitely skews stats.
 
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I definitely don't, but it should also be noted that guys who take a ton of d-zone faceoffs and not mamy o-zone faceoffs often matchup against the opposition's best players. And vice versa for guys who don't get d-zone faceoffs.

For me O-zone faceoff% is more of an indicator. Hamilton usage is weighted much more heavily towards offensive situations. Sieg's and Kova towards defense.
Yeah it’s absolutely a good and useful directional indicator. I just think it tends to be less “this guy is sheltered and this other guy is slammed against first liners” than “the coach views this guy as an offensive asset vs a defensive one”
 
from Seravalli:

💘 Kyle Palmieri:​

Who swipes left?
To New Jersey: Kyle Palmieri
To New York Islanders: 2025 EDM 2nd Round Pick, 2025 VGK 3rd Round Pick

This is too easy, right? Kyle Palmieri heads back home to New Jersey, where he not only starred for St. Peter’s Prep, but also spent parts of six seasons already as a Devil. The Devils are looking for a secondary scoring bump and Palmieri provides that. He won’t get to last season’s career-high of 30 goals, but he’s on-track for 24 this year, when he’s been a victim of an awful Islander power play that has suffocated goal and point totals for himself and others. This deal is right in line with market price for other rental scoring wingers. Plus, the Devils have two extra second-round picks this year (Islanders get the slightly better of the two here) and another third-rounder to deal. It’s a manageable return for New York, who would also do right by Palmieri with his 16-team ‘no-trade,’ and there’s a high probability of comfortability (and success?) in this bet for the Devils.
 
from Seravalli:

💘 Kyle Palmieri:​

Who swipes left?
To New Jersey: Kyle Palmieri
To New York Islanders: 2025 EDM 2nd Round Pick, 2025 VGK 3rd Round Pick

This is too easy, right? Kyle Palmieri heads back home to New Jersey, where he not only starred for St. Peter’s Prep, but also spent parts of six seasons already as a Devil. The Devils are looking for a secondary scoring bump and Palmieri provides that. He won’t get to last season’s career-high of 30 goals, but he’s on-track for 24 this year, when he’s been a victim of an awful Islander power play that has suffocated goal and point totals for himself and others. This deal is right in line with market price for other rental scoring wingers. Plus, the Devils have two extra second-round picks this year (Islanders get the slightly better of the two here) and another third-rounder to deal. It’s a manageable return for New York, who would also do right by Palmieri with his 16-team ‘no-trade,’ and there’s a high probability of comfortability (and success?) in this bet for the Devils.

Let’s do it
 
I'm still leaning towards they let Kovacevic leave in free agency to give Nemec a full and fair chance to sink or swim. Just a guess but we will see. Over the next two or three years they can phase out Dougie, Dillon, and Kovacevic leaving space for Nemec, Casey, and Silayev to earn. Hopefully that works.

I don't like the idea of letting guys with serious draft pick value just leave for free. If a decision has been made that he's not apart of the long term future I would deal him at the deadline for picks or a player. I know we're considered a contender, but I don't think we are a serious enough one to keep Kovacevic and then let him walk for nothing.
 
from Seravalli:

💘 Kyle Palmieri:​

Who swipes left?
To New Jersey: Kyle Palmieri
To New York Islanders: 2025 EDM 2nd Round Pick, 2025 VGK 3rd Round Pick

This is too easy, right? Kyle Palmieri heads back home to New Jersey, where he not only starred for St. Peter’s Prep, but also spent parts of six seasons already as a Devil. The Devils are looking for a secondary scoring bump and Palmieri provides that. He won’t get to last season’s career-high of 30 goals, but he’s on-track for 24 this year, when he’s been a victim of an awful Islander power play that has suffocated goal and point totals for himself and others. This deal is right in line with market price for other rental scoring wingers. Plus, the Devils have two extra second-round picks this year (Islanders get the slightly better of the two here) and another third-rounder to deal. It’s a manageable return for New York, who would also do right by Palmieri with his 16-team ‘no-trade,’ and there’s a high probability of comfortability (and success?) in this bet for the Devils.

He'll be happy to not have to shave 3x a day anymore.
 
So when someone here was nice enough to explain the LTIR intricacies, they mentioned we cannot spend that money; why then can Vegas? (And this isnt to bring into question the validity of Vegas' actions over the last half decade)
 

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