Devils discussion (news, notes and speculation) - part III

Srt of an aside here, but the important thing to remember about OZ start % etc is that 60%+ of shifts start on the fly and another 15% or so start in the neutral zone, and none of those are included in that percentage. So even when you see a number is like 70% WOW it's far less impactful than you might think because we're actually talking about something like 25% of total shifts they start in the game.

Also some people forget to limit it to 5on5 stats and in that case it will obviously be biased one way or the other depending on deployment.

Anyway, stats are good, but context is key.
Yup. That number may feel big, but in reality.

Hamilton starts 2.403 shifts per game in the ozone 5v5
Luke starts 2.229 shifts per game in the ozone 5v5.

Over an 82 game season that difference would amount to a whopping 14 extra ozone shifts for hamilton
 
Just got the Devils invoice for next season, I figured it was going to arrive during this break but they didn't actually raise the prices on my tickets, I'm absolutely shocked. Kudos to the team for that. That being said invoices should still not be allowed to be sent out until the regular season is over.

Playoff invoice came too and they are always really insane, but the odds they play 16 home games is slim to none anyway but if they somehow did it's almost the same cost as a full season lol
 
At 5v5 it should go down for dougie, but on the counterpoint it should go UP on the PP.

Overall, at all strengths, Hamilton:

4.98 xGF/60, and 4.94 GF/60 (both of those marks are 1st in the league btw)
You are a strong advocate for Dr. Evil. He needs a good supporting voice and you do a good job with it. I don't think anyone is trying to argue that on balance he isn't a very good defender in terms of his total impact. He suffers from two flaws. First, he only has one gear. He makes due with it and as long as he doesn't get caught flatfooted at the opposing blue line it's typically not a big deal, but it's noticeable to the eyeball test which some folks just don't like. Second, he's paid at what is still almost the top of the scale for defenders. With NJ having to make some decisions cap wise that will rankle some folks who, rightly or wrongly, expect that Luke will get a similar AAV on a long term deal and that would mean giving him the keys to the car. The issues you raise and passionately defend aren't really going to change that calculus for those looking to move Dr. Evil. His good advanced stats won't make him skate faster or change pace instantly and they won't lower his AAV. You've suggested that NJ can bring back Luke and Kovy next season without roster surgery but some folks are struggling a bit with that (me included and I'll touch on that below) or they want to do some roster remake and see Dougie as a high priced piece that might be moved to bring in a different player more to their liking. Dougie strikes me as a good guy and I like him on the team. He's a calm veteran presence and as you've noted the score tends to be in NJ's favor with him involved. But I understand the counter argument of moving him this summer when he is still capable to avoid a Subban like drop off. Hopefully he has a strong stretch run and NJ makes some noise in the playoffs so management isn't trying to remake the roster.

OK, on the cap stuff. With Allen's resurgence, does NJ have to allocate maybe $3 mil for him for next year? If so, can they still bring back both Luke and Kovy if they combine for somewhere between $13 to $14 mil combined? If so can they cover any bonus overage Luke may get this season?

I'm still leaning towards they let Kovacevic leave in free agency to give Nemec a full and fair chance to sink or swim. Just a guess but we will see. Over the next two or three years they can phase out Dougie, Dillon, and Kovacevic leaving space for Nemec, Casey, and Silayev to earn. Hopefully that works.
 
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