Devils discussion (news, notes and speculation) - part III

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

If you're shipping out Nemec to pay for McCann you realistically cannot move Hamilton.

If you're paying to dump palat, again, fill out both bottom 6 C spots, a winger, and a dman with 10.5 mill via UFA.

Let's see it

why not? You have Casey and you can either re-sign Kovy, sign someone else, or make another trade.

 

[dgibb10]

why not? You have Casey and you can either re-sign Kovy, sign someone else, or make another trade.

Because NJD currently generates less than 2 goals/60 5v5 without hamilton on the ice and you don't as a contender entrust the responsibility of replacing that offense (not to mention his elite PP impact) to a guy who hasn't shown he can do that at the NHL level.

At least with Nemec he has a season of high level offensive generation under his belt from last year.

What is the end result of these moves?

A worse PP.
Loss of a top prospect.
A worse Dcore (and a LOT more susceptible to injury)

And you hope what, McCann improves the Jack-Bratt duo? (even ignoring how beneficial dougie is to that duo).

How much over the course of a season do you think adding McCann improves that line by?

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

Because NJD currently generates less than 2 goals/60 5v5 without hamilton on the ice and you don't as a contender entrust the responsibility of replacing that offense (not to mention his elite PP impact) to a guy who hasn't shown he can do that at the NHL level.

At least with Nemec he has a season of high level offensive generation under his belt from last year.

What is the end result of these moves?

A worse PP.
Loss of a top prospect.
A worse Dcore (and a LOT more susceptible to injury)

And you hope what, McCann improves the Jack-Bratt duo? (even ignoring how beneficial dougie is to that duo).

How much over the course of a season do you think adding McCann improves that line by?

I don't really feel like going into this with you because its clear that you aren't going to change your opinion. You think HAmilton is still some offensive juggernaut player. I do not.

I do not believe that Dougie Hamilton making $9 million for the next 3 years after this one is someone we should be keeping. His play is already declining and will just continue to get worse.

McCann is also signed beyond just this year, and doesnt necessarily have to play with Jack and Bratt.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

Luke Hughes has a 6.5% on ice shooting percentage and Dougie has an 11.2. Almost entirely just luck.

 

[dgibb10]

I don't really feel like going into this with you because its clear that you aren't going to change your opinion. You think HAmilton is still some offensive juggernaut player. I do not.

I do not believe that Dougie Hamilton making $9 million for the next 3 years after this one is someone we should be keeping. His play is already declining and will just continue to get worse.

McCann is also signed beyond just this year, and doesnt necessarily have to play with Jack and Bratt.

NJD scores 3.41 goals/60 5v5 with douglas hamilton on the ice. 2nd among all dmen in the league.
On the PP, NJD scores 12.17 goals/60 with douglas hamilton on the ice. 5th among all dmen in the league.


NJD scores less than 2 goals/60 5v5 without douglas hamilton on the ice.


With dougie hamilton on the ice on the PP, NJD scores a ridiculous amount of goals and generates a ridiculous amount of offense
With dougie hamilton on the ice 5v5, NJD scores a ridiculous amount of goals.

He is 13th in the league in dmen points.

If you don't think that is enough for an OFD, you likely won't be happy unless we go get Cale Makar, Werenski, or Quinn Hughes.

I guess you're upset we don't run every touch through him on the PP so he can get a few extra secondary assists there, or that his shooting % is a touch low this year?

 

[dgibb10]

Luke Hughes has a 6.5% on ice shooting percentage and Dougie has an 11.2. Almost entirely just luck.

I seem to remember you saying it was dougie's fault that he had a bad on ice save % behind him.

Dougie has been doing this for a DECADE now. It isn't luck that every year, he just so happens to generate a ridiculous amount of on ice offense.

 

[Guttersniped]

Honest question (since I'm old and my memory sucks)

When's the last time a top prospect was traded at the trade deadline? I only remember teams trading their 3rd or 4th best, never a top prospect.

Most teams making trades at the TDL don’t have the deepest pools, but yes, teams usually keep blue chip prospects if they have them.

Not sure where the Caps prospect pool was at the time but the most infamous TDL deal might be Filip Forsberg for Martin Erat.

He was traded at the 2013 trade deadline after being drafted 11OA in the 2012 Draft. Forsberg played in Sweden in his D+1 year.

That trade was made by George McPhee and also he traded some top prospects in Vegas as well.

He traded Erik Brannstrom (2017 #15) at the 2019 TDL for Mark Stone, though he wasn’t their top prospect at the time.

The Pacioretty trade, where he traded Suzuki (2017 #13), was in Sept 2018.

He kept Cody Glass (2017 #6) while moving Suzuki, but unfortunately (for him) he bet on the wrong horse.

 

[dgibb10]

Luke Hughes has a 6.5% on ice shooting percentage and Dougie has an 11.2. Almost entirely just luck.

92 on ice goals, 95 on ice expected goals for hamilton.

He's overperforming his expected metrics 5v5, underperforming on the PP (where his expected metrics are the best in the league BY FAR)

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

I seem to remember you saying it was dougie's fault that he had a bad on ice save % behind him.

Dougie has been doing this for a DECADE now. It isn't luck that every year, he just so happens to generate a ridiculous amount of on ice offense.

Yeah, don’t care, didn’t say that. Your whole argument that the Devils can’t score without Dougie relies on his inflated on ice shooting percentage (11.2% vs 8% career) and other guys’ deflated on ice shooting percentage. We’re getting roughly the same amount of expected goals with Luke out there, it just isn’t going in.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

50 GF on 42 xGF with Dougie out there. 26 GF on 40 xGF with Luke out there. And it isn’t Dougie’s finishing, because he’s shooting 5%.

 

[Forge]

I posted this in the other thread, but

Nemec + Haula

for

McCann + Gourde (50% retained and assuming he is on track to be back healthy soon)

is a trade I would strongly consider

Haula would have to waive, which I think is asking a lot, but generally speaking I would do this.

 

[dgibb10]

Yeah, don’t care, didn’t say that. Your whole argument that the Devils can’t score without Dougie relies on his inflated on ice shooting percentage (11.2% vs 8% career) and other guys’ deflated on ice shooting percentage. We’re getting roughly the same amount of expected goals with Luke out there, it just isn’t going in.

We currently can't score without dougie on the ice. Will luke figure it out. Hopefully, and I think he will. He also underperformed his expected metrics last year both ways, same as this year.

Hamilton this year, both in expected metrics and real metrics generates a f*** TON of offense.

There is not a dmen in the league this year, when you look at both PP and 5v5, who leads to more offense when he's on the ice than hamilton.

And this has been going on for years.

 

[Lou Bloom]

Good points all. No, if anything, I'm crediting Luke for being excellent on D - there's room for improvement but I think his D is terrific and has been all season. He will get stronger and more physical with age, and I think his stick work is improving and he's even doing better around the crease and trying people up. He's magnificent on the back heck. All of the facets of his game are coming together in our zone.

My criticism is his decisions with the puck on his stick. We know he can do just about anything but I think he needs to make the simpler play all over the ice and that will result in more goals for him personally and for the team in general.

I wouldn't say Nemec is lazy, but maybe timid. And I think that is just experience. When he was guaranteed a spot bc of injury last year, we saw him more aggressive offensively. I find he's usually in the right place doing the right thing, and looks more polished. And yeah, maybe conditioning/athleticism is playing a role



It's been a tiny sample set this year for nemec, and I think if we went by the first ten games of Hughes this year we could have said the same of him.

I’ve watched Nemec play in the AHL, Slovakia, internationally and all last season in the NHL, I’m not basing my opinion of Nemec solely on the 10 games he’s played in the NHL this season.

 

[dgibb10]

50 GF on 42 xGF with Dougie out there. 26 GF on 40 xGF with Luke out there. And it isn’t Dougie’s finishing, because he’s shooting 5%.

And it evens out because he's at 33 GF on 38 xGF on the power play.

Nobody is saying Luke isn't good offensively.

The point is, currently we have 1 black hole offensive pairing.

2 years now luke has underperformed expected metrics. I hope and expect that to get fixed, but if it doesn't what do you do then.

And even if he does fix it, HAVING A GUY LIKE DOUGIE IS STILL MASSIVELY WORTH IT.

He is ridiculously beneficial to our PP, and one of the best engines for offense in the league among dmen.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

We currently can't score without dougie on the ice. Will luke figure it out. Hopefully, and I think he will. He also underperformed his expected metrics last year both ways, same as this year.

Hamilton this year, both in expected metrics and real metrics generates a f*** TON of offense.

There is not a dmen in the league this year, when you look at both PP and 5v5, who leads to more offense when he's on the ice than hamilton.

And this has been going on for years.

It isn’t a matter of Luke “figuring it out”. A defenseman doesn’t have that much impact on how often the puck goes in when he’s on the ice.

No one is saying Dougie isn’t good offensively. I dispute that the puck will continue to not go in when he isn’t out there. No reason why that will continue.

 

[dgibb10]

It isn’t a matter of Luke “figuring it out”. A defenseman doesn’t have that much impact on how often the puck goes in when he’s on the ice.

No one is saying Dougie isn’t good offensively. I dispute that the puck will continue to not go in when he isn’t out there. No reason why that will continue.

You need more than 1 dman that can drive offense at a high level.

Hence the problem now with luke isn't scoring (bad shooting %).

You move out dougie and luke gets better shooting luck and you have that exact same problem again, just now with a worse PP.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

You need more than 1 dman that can drive offense at a high level.

Hence the problem now with luke isn't scoring (bad shooting %).

You move out dougie and luke gets better shooting luck and you have that exact same problem again, just now with a worse PP.

Why? Nemec has the ability to be an excellent offensive dman at 5 on 5. He’s been horrific this year, but he already has a season under his belt with great 5 on 5 offense.

Also, everyone is perfectly aware that the Devils would miss something if Dougie goes away. It’s just a matter of team building. I think they can build a better team with that money freed up, you don’t. That’s okay.

 

[dgibb10]

Why? Nemec has the ability to be an excellent offensive dman at 5 on 5. He’s been horrific this year, but he already has a season under his belt with great 5 on 5 offense.

Also, everyone is perfectly aware that the Devils would miss something if Dougie goes away. It’s just a matter of team building. I think they can build a better team with that money freed up, you don’t. That’s okay.

The person I replied to was suggesting shipping out BOTH Hamilton and Nemec.

I think you underestimate how much things will cost this coming offseason, and how valuable hamilton is both 5v5 and on the PP especially

 

[Whaddagoal]

While 4 nations going on... meanwhile, in the Carribbean, ample relaxation being achieved by some...

 

[JK3]

Haha I was going to mention earlier who are our guys vacationing with over the break and can they talk them into coming here.