I'd love to get Braydenn Schenn if he were a UFA, but he has 2 years left and this is his 14th full season of playing a physical, punishing style of hockey. Something like Schenn + Dvorsky for Nemec + something small could make sense. But the Devils are not at the place where they can risk taking on 2 years of Schenn - he might fall completely apart next year.
Devils discussion (news, notes and speculation) - part III
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New Jerseys Devil
Folk Legend
- Nov 25, 2024
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I hope everyone has a great 4 Nations break!!
SteveCangialosi123
Registered User
TheBeerNerd
of the New Jersey Meatwads
That's a failed deadline to me. Unless you consider making additions to the bottom six doesn't qualify as consequential.
- Dec 20, 2018
- 23,323
- 53,182
Catching up but this from HockeyStatCards, Devils defensemen since Christmas.
Here’s forwards:
Guadana
Registered User
Nemec is a good skater he isnt on the level with Holtz, he just isnt on the level with Luke. No one is. Its not a reason to trade him.
Nemec has clear potential to be top-4 and ceiling to be top-2. Floor? I think he is close and much closer than any other non-regular NHL defenseman. He was quite ok to play 19-20 minutes as 19 yo in NHL and was solid when his role was more limited. If you are waiting more from 20 yo defensive prospect you are waiting too much. Luke was full of mistakes and bad decisions year ago and still he is making it, Power was raw as rawness, Edvinsson didnt play regularly in NHL, Faber didnt play in NHL, Sanderson only started to play in NHL(without any competition) and still was "very productive", Lane Hutson even with his nice abilities
What kind of value do you he has? Trading him for another middle 1st round pick? Same here +years of waiting. Top-10? Why and why we should still waiting when we already have player who is very productive on NHL level and was good enough to play in NHL as 19 yo. Or you just want to have defenseman with Luke Hughes level of skating and thats it? So we should scout figure skating programms.
Or you are waiting for top line player with good deal as a trade one for one? Like I said there is only opportunity to trade for top line player in the package and trades like this are mostly over for losing. There are no young centers to trade for Nemec we will like.
Zippy316
aka Zippo
I don’t expect a trade that screams all in this year from the Devils.
However, I do hope Fitzgerald looks to cough up some assets for a short and long term fix like Bjorkstrand or Rakell. I’d rather pay the same price for one of those players than trade for a rental.
I also think Fitzgerald has to add a center, even if it’s a relatively inconsequential player like Suter to compete with Haula, if he wants to steer clear of Evans getting ridiculous value form a career year.
I still don’t think that would make the Devils odds on favorites in most matchups. However, I could definitely see this roster + two guys like that being able to go toe-to-toe with any team in the league if some guys get hot or step up.
We REALLY struggle to puck the puck in the other teams net 5v5 with dougie not on the ice.
Lou Bloom
Registered User
- Oct 14, 2020
- 1,275
- 2,313
Nemec is a good prospect, that doesn’t mean it doesn’t make sense to trade him with a lot of options on the right side and Nemec having clear flaws in his game that could limit his potential. If I thought he was the caliber or Luke, Sanderson or Edvinsson then I would be in favor of keeping him but I think Nemec is a clear step below those players.
The Devils have a clear organizational strength on defense with a clear organizational weakness at forward, trading from a position of strength to improve a position of weakness is a common practice in every major sport.
I think Nemec has very good value being a young RHD with draft pedigree and a solid rookie season. I’d do something along the lines of Nemec for Owen Beck + 2025 1st round pick, or an equivalent trade where the Devils bring in a good developing foward on an ELC + other assets to even out the trade value.
The problem with Nemec isn’t the skating alone it’s that the issue is compounded by positioning mistakes and a lack of physicality around the net which hampers him defensively.
Ultimately I think Nemec is a good but not untouchable type of prospect. And when you add in a logjam at RHD + his value being inflated due to his draft status as the #2 overall pick (in a very weak draft class) I think it creates a scenario where the value around the league for him is greater than the value I think he brings to the Devils.
theoptimist
Thank you, Fitz
- Apr 22, 2014
- 5,550
- 3,117
theoptimist
Thank you, Fitz
- Apr 22, 2014
- 5,550
- 3,117
Who are their most common forward pairings? The outcomes likely differ when Dougie passes to Lazar vs Bratt, and I believe there’s data at this level of detail.
NJDevilsFan21
Trade Everyone!!
- Nov 10, 2006
- 1,563
- 788
I think people seem to forget that Nemec did have a really great stretch (unlike Holtz). For like an entire half season too. It seemed like the guy made no mistakes handling the puck under pressure and was making tape to tape breakout passes all the time. He even seemed to pinch only at the right times. He didn't drive plays, but it was like nothing wrong ever happened while he was on the ice. He honestly just came off to me as a better/polished version of a young Adam Larsson.
And then he followed that with an awful stretch. I'm not really sure what happened. Maybe he tried to change his game too much to be more like Luke? Nemec doesn't seem like a play driver, and I think him focusing on that too much took away from his good reactionary game.
I would do it for the right package, but definitely not for some mid player.
And then he followed that with an awful stretch. I'm not really sure what happened. Maybe he tried to change his game too much to be more like Luke? Nemec doesn't seem like a play driver, and I think him focusing on that too much took away from his good reactionary game.
I would do it for the right package, but definitely not for some mid player.
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This is a baseline roster.
Currently would leave us 4.5 mill for a 3C.
Any luke rollovers would eat into that (as of right now we're projected to be able to exactly cover his full bonuses if he meets all standards for his full 950k).
Basically, any salary we add (player in-players out/sent down) /4 (deadline is about 75% of the way through the season) will be taken from accruals.
(eg we can add 4 mill in salary on rentals but it would cost us a mill next year).
I think that is a feasible amount to obtain a 3C, whether that's a JGP, Coyle, Dickinson, Evans, Dowd, Frederic, O'Reilly, Backlund, etc.
In terms of moving Palat/Dougie. Most of Palat money would honestly just be spent on a replacement winger, no real change.
Dougie money I don't really know where you'd spend it if you did move him.
-Goalie backup
-ridiculously priced 3C
-higher priced 4th liners?
-Mercer into some high priced top line winger?
In my take, I think it makes sense to move Hamilton after next season (after his bonus is paid).
On a 104 mill cap, with basically no real money remaining (6.25 mill total for his final 2 years), It should be very easy to find a taker even if he declines significantly. Think about Orlov, who got 7.75x2 (9% of the cap) in UFA at age 32. Hamilton would be at 8.3% of the cap over his final 2 years, and a ridiculous 2.9% of the cap when it comes to real money, and would be 33.
TheBeerNerd
of the New Jersey Meatwads
Hamilton. Yes he produces a lot more with the top guys than the bottom guys. But he also drives said top guys to ridiculous levels of offense. People do not appreciate how much dougie does for Jack/Bratt/Nico/etc nearly enough. I like having a guy you can stick out there with your top forwards and just utterly dominate.
Kovy, he doesn't really put up offense no matter who he's with
Siegs
Pesce
Luke
He's been doing this for a decade. Douglas Hamilton on the ice=elite level offense
I love expected metrics.
But there are many people who complain "The devils can't score 5v5" while also suggesting we ship out hamilton.
He plays high event hockey and he wins his minutes like he always has. good teams need a guy (and ideally guys) who can simply drive offense on D
TheBeerNerd
of the New Jersey Meatwads
The offensive driving will definitely come for Luke, but there really isn't much beyond that in the rest of the blue line. It's why I'm not going to cry like it's the end of the world if Kovacevic leaves for somewhere else. Nemec will be fine, he's not going to forget becoming a serviceable defenseman (at the least), and he'll have more to offer on the offensive end.
I'm more than happy to ride with Dougie until he shows hints of decline on the offense.
I'm more than happy to ride with Dougie until he shows hints of decline on the offense.
If things keep up the way they are going hard to see NJ not try to bring back Allen on a one year/two year deal. I'm skeptical they have Daws penciled in to take over the backup role right now. I think Haula is the 3C to open next season. All of Dougie, Palat, and Haula have trade protection to one degree or another for next season. Fitz has yet to strong arm someone out of town and he signed all those guys. I am skeptical he attempts to trade any of them unless something really forces his hand.
If you bring back allen at like 2.5 mill or something I could see a 3 mill C brought in to have not really a 3C/4C with that acquisition and haula, but simply a pair of bottom 6Cs. I worry about how pricey that market is this offseason tho.
I agree I don't see any of the 3 being shipped out.
I would like to buy some retention on a C for 2-3 years (including this year) (get me JGP 50% retained for this year and next) to maximize the skill level there.
JGP
Dickinson
Ror
Backlund
Coyle
Copp
Sissons
etc
I'd be critical of Hischier the puck hog but then you look at Noesen and Meier and it's pretty clear that nobody is putting the puck in the net on Hischier's line other than Hischier.
4 goals on 12.4 xGoals from Meier and Noesen is rough
- Dec 20, 2018
- 23,323
- 53,182
Game Score is pretty results based, even though there’s advanced stats involved too.
It might help to include the first part of the season’s numbers as a comparison.
Oct 4 - Dec 24
Dec 25 - Feb 8
The Dougie/Dillon pairing got better results after Christmas.
Both the Kovy/Siegenthaler pairing’s amazing underlying numbers and amazing results slipped post-Christmas.
The Luke/Pesce pairing has struggled quite a bit after Christmas after their great start.
I prefer looking at Natural Stat Tricks defensive pair but those are harder to post.
But here ya go, here’s the 3 main pairs numbers, pre-Christmas vs post, along with the team’s split.
Siegenthaler/Kovy 5v5
Oct 4 - Dec 24
37 GP 525:10 TOI 14:11 TOI/GP
20 GF 11 GA 64.52 GF%
2.28 GF/60 1.26 GA/60
21.54 xGF 14.61 xGA 59.58 xGF%
2.46 xGF/60 1.67 xGA/60
9.66 On Ice SH% 93.79 On Ice SV%
1.034 PDO
Dec 25 - Feb 8
18 GP 223:14 TOI 12:24 TOI/GP
5 GF 6 GA 45.45 GF%
1.34 GF/60 1.61 GA/60
8.1 xGF 8.34 xGA 49.27 xGF%
2.18 xGF/60 2.24 xGA/60
5.95 On Ice SH% 94.23 On Ice SV%
1.002 PDO
Dillon/Dougie 5v5
Oct 4 - Dec 24
37 GP 464:55 12:33 TOI TOI/GP
28 GF 25 GA 52.83 GF%
3.61 GF/60 3.23 GA/60
25.26 xGF 21.03 xGA 54.57 xGF%
3.26 xGF/60 2.71 xGA/60
10.98 On Ice SH% 88.37 On Ice SV%
.994 PDO
Dec 25 - Feb 8
20 GP 210:57 TOI 10:32 TOI/GP
13 GF 8 GA 61.90 GF%
3.43 GF/60 2.28 GA/60
9.13 xGF 9.39 xGA 49.28 xGF%
2.6 xGF/60 2.67 xGA/60
12.75 On Ice SH% 92.73 On Ice SV%
1.055 PDO
Luke/Pesce 5v5
Oct 4 - Dec 24
28 GP 405:43 TOI 14:29 TOI/GP
14 GF 10 GA 58.33 GF%
2.07 GF/60 1.48 GA/60
22.16 xGF 13.8 xGA 61.62 xGF%
3.28 xGF/60 2.04 xGA/60
6.42 On Ice SH% 92.81 On Ice SV%
.992 PDO
Dec 25 - Feb 8
20 GP 242:51 TOI 12:08 TOI/GP
6 GF 11 GA 35.29 GF%
1.48 GF/60 2.72 GA/60
9.17 xGF 11.52 xGA 44.32 xGF%
2.26 xGF/60 2.85 xGA/60
6.00 On Ice SH% 90.43 On Ice SV%
.964 PDO
NJ Devils Team Stats 5v5
Oct 4 - Dec 24
23-11-3 49 pts .662% (4th)
37 GP 1782:54 TOI 48:11 TOI/60 (T-17th)
72 GF 61 GA 54.14 GF% (8th)
2.42 GF/60 (19th) 2.05 GA/60 (T-5th)
83.15 xGF 65.56 xGA 55.91 xGF% (3rd)
2.8 xGF/60 (T-2nd) 2.21 xGA/60 (T-5th)
8.60 On Ice SH% (20th) 91.52 On Ice SV% (12th)
1.001 PDO (T-14th)
Dec 24 - Feb 8
8-9-3 19 pts .475% (T-25th)
20 GP 979:16 TOI 48:57 TOI/GP (26th)
36 GF 35 GA 50.70 GF% (17th)
2.21 GF/60 (T-21st) 2.14 GA/60 (T-10th)
37.93 xGF 42.8 xGA 46.99 xGF% (25th)
2.32 xGF/60 (24th) 2.62 xGA/60 (21st)
9.14 On Ice SH% (12th) 92.55 On Ice SV% (5th)
1.017 PDO (T-6th)
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Brayden Schenn? For a Casey, Nemec, or Silayev? No. If St. Louis needs defensemen ,we have several prospects that deserve more space to play and would fit their need - Hatakka, Vilen, Misyul are close (meaning AHL and could play soon) and we have several overseas too - Orlov, Karpovich, Barabosha, Leddy, Edwards - that could be of interest as well.
We have no forwards to trade, certainly not young centers!
We have no forwards to trade, certainly not young centers!
The Wumpus
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