Devils discussion (news, notes and speculation) - part III

I'd love to get Braydenn Schenn if he were a UFA, but he has 2 years left and this is his 14th full season of playing a physical, punishing style of hockey. Something like Schenn + Dvorsky for Nemec + something small could make sense. But the Devils are not at the place where they can risk taking on 2 years of Schenn - he might fall completely apart next year.
 
  • Like
Reactions: TheBeerNerd
Saliyev aside; If you aren’t interested in Brayden Schenn for $3.5m a season, you simply do not have even remotely realistic expectations for this team at the trade deadline.
I have realistic expectations for the deadline: not much of consequence will happen. That’s a better outcome than paying Schenn to suck a couple years from now.
 
Kovacevic easily, followed by Brendan Dillon. Both players never play outside of themselves the way Dougie does.

Catching up but this from HockeyStatCards, Devils defensemen since Christmas.

IMG_3229.jpeg

Here’s forwards:
IMG_3230.jpegIMG_3231.jpeg
 
Luke is also an elite skater with tons of skill, If Nemec had comparable skating and skill then of course you could overlook defensive lapses but Nemec doesn’t have dynamic offense/transition ability.

Nemec has potential to be a top 4 piece, he doesn’t have the floor of a top 4 piece.

You also keep insinuating that Nemec’s value in a trade would be a late 1st and 2nd. He has more value than Jiricek and I think the Devils could get a very good return back for Nemec, that would be worth trading him.
Nemec is a good skater he isnt on the level with Holtz, he just isnt on the level with Luke. No one is. Its not a reason to trade him.
Nemec has clear potential to be top-4 and ceiling to be top-2. Floor? I think he is close and much closer than any other non-regular NHL defenseman. He was quite ok to play 19-20 minutes as 19 yo in NHL and was solid when his role was more limited. If you are waiting more from 20 yo defensive prospect you are waiting too much. Luke was full of mistakes and bad decisions year ago and still he is making it, Power was raw as rawness, Edvinsson didnt play regularly in NHL, Faber didnt play in NHL, Sanderson only started to play in NHL(without any competition) and still was "very productive", Lane Hutson even with his nice abilities

What kind of value do you he has? Trading him for another middle 1st round pick? Same here +years of waiting. Top-10? Why and why we should still waiting when we already have player who is very productive on NHL level and was good enough to play in NHL as 19 yo. Or you just want to have defenseman with Luke Hughes level of skating and thats it? So we should scout figure skating programms.
Or you are waiting for top line player with good deal as a trade one for one? Like I said there is only opportunity to trade for top line player in the package and trades like this are mostly over for losing. There are no young centers to trade for Nemec we will like.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Guttersniped
I have realistic expectations for the deadline: not much of consequence will happen. That’s a better outcome than paying Schenn to suck a couple years from now.
I don’t expect a trade that screams all in this year from the Devils.

However, I do hope Fitzgerald looks to cough up some assets for a short and long term fix like Bjorkstrand or Rakell. I’d rather pay the same price for one of those players than trade for a rental.

I also think Fitzgerald has to add a center, even if it’s a relatively inconsequential player like Suter to compete with Haula, if he wants to steer clear of Evans getting ridiculous value form a career year.

I still don’t think that would make the Devils odds on favorites in most matchups. However, I could definitely see this roster + two guys like that being able to go toe-to-toe with any team in the league if some guys get hot or step up.
 
I do think Fitz might have reservations about shipping off Dougie after this year and may have major 23-24 vibes where we had too inexperienced of a D corps.

Even if you keep Kovacevic and get rid of Dougie, he’s far less experienced than someone his age and there’s a lot of questions whether this is going to be the norm for him going forward on a long term deal.

And with offense being a bit less than what we hoped for this year, I think losing Dougie might only make that worse. And that’s while also acknowledging that Dougie has taken a step back offensively and his shot is not as effective this year.

And I’m not sure if removing Dougie and replacing him with a guy that has yet to produce any real offense in the league is gonna help matters much.
Screenshot 2025-02-11 at 2.41.54 PM.png

We REALLY struggle to puck the puck in the other teams net 5v5 with dougie not on the ice.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Bleedred
Nemec is a good skater he isnt on the level with Holtz, he just isnt on the level with Luke. No one is. Its not a reason to trade him.
Nemec has clear potential to be top-4 and ceiling to be top-2. Floor? I think he is close and much closer than any other non-regular NHL defenseman. He was quite ok to play 19-20 minutes as 19 yo in NHL and was solid when his role was more limited. If you are waiting more from 20 yo defensive prospect you are waiting too much. Luke was full of mistakes and bad decisions year ago and still he is making it, Power was raw as rawness, Edvinsson didnt play regularly in NHL, Faber didnt play in NHL, Sanderson only started to play in NHL(without any competition) and still was "very productive", Lane Hutson even with his nice abilities

What kind of value do you he has? Trading him for another middle 1st round pick? Same here +years of waiting. Top-10? Why and why we should still waiting when we already have player who is very productive on NHL level and was good enough to play in NHL as 19 yo. Or you just want to have defenseman with Luke Hughes level of skating and thats it? So we should scout figure skating programms.
Or you are waiting for top line player with good deal as a trade one for one? Like I said there is only opportunity to trade for top line player in the package and trades like this are mostly over for losing. There are no young centers to trade for Nemec we will like.
Nemec is a good prospect, that doesn’t mean it doesn’t make sense to trade him with a lot of options on the right side and Nemec having clear flaws in his game that could limit his potential. If I thought he was the caliber or Luke, Sanderson or Edvinsson then I would be in favor of keeping him but I think Nemec is a clear step below those players.

The Devils have a clear organizational strength on defense with a clear organizational weakness at forward, trading from a position of strength to improve a position of weakness is a common practice in every major sport.

I think Nemec has very good value being a young RHD with draft pedigree and a solid rookie season. I’d do something along the lines of Nemec for Owen Beck + 2025 1st round pick, or an equivalent trade where the Devils bring in a good developing foward on an ELC + other assets to even out the trade value.

The problem with Nemec isn’t the skating alone it’s that the issue is compounded by positioning mistakes and a lack of physicality around the net which hampers him defensively.

Ultimately I think Nemec is a good but not untouchable type of prospect. And when you add in a logjam at RHD + his value being inflated due to his draft status as the #2 overall pick (in a very weak draft class) I think it creates a scenario where the value around the league for him is greater than the value I think he brings to the Devils.
 
I think people seem to forget that Nemec did have a really great stretch (unlike Holtz). For like an entire half season too. It seemed like the guy made no mistakes handling the puck under pressure and was making tape to tape breakout passes all the time. He even seemed to pinch only at the right times. He didn't drive plays, but it was like nothing wrong ever happened while he was on the ice. He honestly just came off to me as a better/polished version of a young Adam Larsson.

And then he followed that with an awful stretch. I'm not really sure what happened. Maybe he tried to change his game too much to be more like Luke? Nemec doesn't seem like a play driver, and I think him focusing on that too much took away from his good reactionary game.

I would do it for the right package, but definitely not for some mid player.
 
Last edited:
Screenshot 2025-02-11 at 2.50.48 PM.png

This is a baseline roster.

Currently would leave us 4.5 mill for a 3C.

Any luke rollovers would eat into that (as of right now we're projected to be able to exactly cover his full bonuses if he meets all standards for his full 950k).

Basically, any salary we add (player in-players out/sent down) /4 (deadline is about 75% of the way through the season) will be taken from accruals.

(eg we can add 4 mill in salary on rentals but it would cost us a mill next year).

I think that is a feasible amount to obtain a 3C, whether that's a JGP, Coyle, Dickinson, Evans, Dowd, Frederic, O'Reilly, Backlund, etc.

In terms of moving Palat/Dougie. Most of Palat money would honestly just be spent on a replacement winger, no real change.

Dougie money I don't really know where you'd spend it if you did move him.

-Goalie backup
-ridiculously priced 3C
-higher priced 4th liners?
-Mercer into some high priced top line winger?

In my take, I think it makes sense to move Hamilton after next season (after his bonus is paid).

On a 104 mill cap, with basically no real money remaining (6.25 mill total for his final 2 years), It should be very easy to find a taker even if he declines significantly. Think about Orlov, who got 7.75x2 (9% of the cap) in UFA at age 32. Hamilton would be at 8.3% of the cap over his final 2 years, and a ridiculous 2.9% of the cap when it comes to real money, and would be 33.
 
Who are their most common forward pairings? The outcomes likely differ when Dougie passes to Lazar vs Bratt, and I believe there’s data at this level of detail.
Screenshot 2025-02-11 at 3.07.04 PM.png

Hamilton. Yes he produces a lot more with the top guys than the bottom guys. But he also drives said top guys to ridiculous levels of offense. People do not appreciate how much dougie does for Jack/Bratt/Nico/etc nearly enough. I like having a guy you can stick out there with your top forwards and just utterly dominate.

Screenshot 2025-02-11 at 3.07.42 PM.png

Kovy, he doesn't really put up offense no matter who he's with

Screenshot 2025-02-11 at 3.08.04 PM.png

Siegs

Screenshot 2025-02-11 at 3.08.41 PM.png

Pesce

Screenshot 2025-02-11 at 3.10.03 PM.png

Luke

He's been doing this for a decade. Douglas Hamilton on the ice=elite level offense
 
But expected goals!
I love expected metrics.

But there are many people who complain "The devils can't score 5v5" while also suggesting we ship out hamilton.

He plays high event hockey and he wins his minutes like he always has. good teams need a guy (and ideally guys) who can simply drive offense on D
 
  • Like
Reactions: TheBeerNerd
The offensive driving will definitely come for Luke, but there really isn't much beyond that in the rest of the blue line. It's why I'm not going to cry like it's the end of the world if Kovacevic leaves for somewhere else. Nemec will be fine, he's not going to forget becoming a serviceable defenseman (at the least), and he'll have more to offer on the offensive end.

I'm more than happy to ride with Dougie until he shows hints of decline on the offense.
 

Ad

Upcoming events

Ad