Devils discussion (news, notes and speculation) - part III

[None Shall Pass]

No the last 2 Beatles were

 

[BostonDevil]

Heard the Donato rumblings about a month ago. I'm sure a 2nd makes it happen immediately but I wouldn't be shocked if Tom is still playing hardball on price. OR keeping him as options C/D

Zero interest in this. Waiver pickup at most.

 

[Devil X]

Zero interest in this. Waiver pickup at most.

He would be 6th on this team in goals and tied for 6 in points. He would be a good addition to the bottom 6.

 

[dgibb10]

You can't have six regulars combine for barely 100 points in a season. Pretty simple and very correctable.

What Dougie does offensively is great but it's easy to trade those 50+ points for 120-150 points elsewhere.

Where the hell are you going to find 150 points lmao

 

[Billdo]

What Dougie does offensively is great but it's easy to trade those 50+ points for 120-150 points elsewhere.

lol what?

 

[Billdo]

look at this garbage lol

Been saying it for a while now but Sid deserves better.

 

[devilsblood]

I think my biggest beef that I have is with those who have already written how this season will end in their minds. There is plenty of hockey to go, and while January has been a difficult month, this last stretch has been more challenging in missing two guys who make a massive difference (along with Haula to a lesser extent, who does bolster our forward depth).

This sport is incredibly fluky in so many ways. The most important thing is to find yourself in the playoff picture at the end. There are enough instances of teams making runs even if they weren't the top team in the conference or even their division. Some will chalk that up as clinging to hope, but it's the reality of the sport. There is a good team here, I laid out all of the statistics that we are in the top third and top quarter of the league in last week ahead of the Buffalo game. One game hasn't changed that. But if the top players do not come to play, such as Jack's line in that last game where they got scored on 3 times, you'll certainly struggle to win more of those games than you'll lose.

I have confidence in Keefe seeing how he has navigated regular seasons in Toronto. He has had enough success that I have faith he can get things tightened up. We need our reinforcements first, and that will come with the 4 Nations break too.

Haula being out in itself is not the biggest deal, but his absence becomes a much bigger deal with Nico out. Faceoffs, defensive responsibility and center responsibilities in general.

Still hoping that Haula comes back healthy and significantly more effective then he had been before going out.

 

[billingtons ghost]

When has the hero pond hockey happened? I’ve been under the impression that they’ve been one of the best defensive teams in the NHL this season. You’ve also left out of your diatribe that they’re without their top goalie and only other center that can win a faceoff.

I'm not going to support Sansa negativity,

But dude you simply cannot differentiate btw averages and means.

This team, if you take out the high and low ten minutes of every game plays excellent defense the majority of the time, and on average is one of the best defensive teams in hockey this season.

They also play entire periods of disgusting pond hockey.

In no way does the first statement disqualify the second statement. Both can be, and are in fact true.

Think of it like: "on average, Damon Severson is a good defensive defenseman." And: Damon Severson is a brainfart nightmare game losing ass clown.

 

[NJ07102]

Honest question- did you watch ANY of the games the last two weeks?

Honest answer: I watched them all and I saw Meier score exactly one goal in 2025.

 

[JimEIV]

Beyonce and Nick Lidstrom were at the pub?

Drinking White Claws and eating chicken wings

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

I'm not going to support Sansa negativity,

But dude you simply cannot differentiate btw averages and means.

This team, if you take out the high and low ten minutes of every game plays excellent defense the majority of the time, and on average is one of the best defensive teams in hockey this season.

They also play entire periods of disgusting pond hockey.

In no way does the first statement disqualify the second statement. Both can be, and are in fact true.

Think of it like: "on average, Damon Severson is a good defensive defenseman." And: Damon Severson is a brainfart nightmare game losing ass clown.

Welcome to the sport of hockey, where you give up chances sometimes. The number of teams that are better defensively can be counted on one hand. And that’s whether you’re looking at actual real goals given up or advanced stats, which is why the Severson analogy fails.

 

[guitarguyvic]

Welcome to the sport of hockey, where you give up chances sometimes. The number of teams that are better defensively can be counted on one hand. And that’s whether you’re looking at actual real goals given up or advanced stats, which is why the Severson analogy fails.

I think you totally missed his point. Yes on average they are really good defensively. An average however does not give you any insight into the distribution of how low their low is or high their high is. When they are not paying well defensively it’s abysmal looking. You cannot just assume that this distribution is equal across the board for all teams. There are gonna be teams who’s best defensive game might not be quite as good as NJ’s best…but perhaps they execute it more consistently than NJ does. That’s going to average out to look similar.

I think you and other stat junkies inherently understand this but it’s more convenient for a rosy outlook to pretend otherwise.

 

[Triumph]

I think you totally missed his point. Yes on average they are really good defensively. An average however does not give you any insight into the distribution of how low their low is or high their high is. When they are not paying well defensively it’s abysmal looking. You cannot just assume that this distribution is equal across the board for all teams. There are gonna be teams who’s best defensive game might not be quite as good as NJ’s best…but perhaps they execute it more consistently than NJ does. That’s going to average out to look similar.

I think you and other stat junkies inherently understand this but it’s more convenient for a rosy outlook to pretend otherwise.

His point was asinine and based in the idea that the Devils are somehow special as a team, that the other defensively good teams can somehow be consistent but that the Devils are magically way worse at their worst times. If we drilled down into any numbers at all he would just handwave it away because that's what he does. This is from the same school as 'the Devils have trouble with shot choices' and even one I like to believe 'the Devils get screwed by the refs'. It's all based in the idea that the team you watch all the time is fundamentally different from teams you watch 5 times a year.

Are the Devils playing like a top defensive team lately? No, they're not, but they're missing some of their top defensive forwards. The play has gotten sloppier. The structure is still considerably better than last season.

What you guys seem to believe is that other playoff teams do not have as bad stretches as the Devils, either in wins and losses or in play that is not reflected in wins and losses, and that is not the case.

 

[Devils731]

I think you totally missed his point. Yes on average they are really good defensively. An average however does not give you any insight into the distribution of how low their low is or high their high is. When they are not paying well defensively it’s abysmal looking. You cannot just assume that this distribution is equal across the board for all teams. There are gonna be teams who’s best defensive game might not be quite as good as NJ’s best…but perhaps they execute it more consistently than NJ does. That’s going to average out to look similar.

I think you and other stat junkies inherently understand this but it’s more convenient for a rosy outlook to pretend otherwise.

Or perhaps not and that’s why those teams are sad at having given up more goals than the Devils and the Devils should be happy at having given up less.

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

Honest answer: I watched them all and I saw Meier score exactly one goal in 2025.

do you understand that there is more to hockey than scoring goals, or?

Try to think a little outside your comfort zone. Is he still picking up points? Lately, yes he has been. Is he still driving play? Yes, he has been. Both the eye test and advanced stats confirm this. Keep in mind his center has been mostly Justin Dowling recently, a career AHLer.

 

[MasterofGrond]

I think you totally missed his point. Yes on average they are really good defensively. An average however does not give you any insight into the distribution of how low their low is or high their high is. When they are not paying well defensively it’s abysmal looking. You cannot just assume that this distribution is equal across the board for all teams. There are gonna be teams who’s best defensive game might not be quite as good as NJ’s best…but perhaps they execute it more consistently than NJ does. That’s going to average out to look similar.

I think you and other stat junkies inherently understand this but it’s more convenient for a rosy outlook to pretend otherwise.

An average is actually an excellent way to look at a teams defensive ability. it takes the entire body of work into account, good, bad, and mid, and, crucially, how often each of those performances occur, not just game to game but within games. A team that gives up less goals, all other things being equal, will win more games, more or less regardless of distribution (within nhl norms).

I’m not saying consistency is bad but the the way you have a low xGA or GAA is by being consistent. Teams don’t have numbers as good as the devils if they’re not. The devils have breakdowns and bad games. That is true of every team in the whole league. The devils demonstrably have fewer than the average team, as evidenced by our good defensive stats!

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

judging by THIS (I know, numbers!!!!!), the Devils are actually pretty darn consistent from month to month.



Yes, January was not as good as they had been the other 3 months, which is pretty much what you'd expect, right?

 

[Jersey Fan 12]

I really like the player, but woof. no shot I am giving Casey for any 31+ year old. Not to mention Rakell's brains are one hit away from maybe being permanently scrambled.

Penguins have already been burned once on an undersized defenseman from the Devils. Don't think they make the same mistake.

 

[Jersey Fan 12]

Amazing what one added center for a lineup does

Palat Hughes Bratt
Meier Haula Mercer
Cotter Dowling Noesen
Tatar Lazar Bastian

Thats much better than what we have been running.

Then adding Nico to remove Dowling is great.

Boys gotta win in Pitt and grind away against Vegas and Mtl

Hopefully putting an end to all of the Haula and Mercer bashing. But I won't hold my breath.

 

[guitarguyvic]

His point was asinine and based in the idea that the Devils are somehow special as a team, that the other defensively good teams can somehow be consistent but that the Devils are magically way worse at their worst times. If we drilled down into any numbers at all he would just handwave it away because that's what he does. This is from the same school as 'the Devils have trouble with shot choices' and even one I like to believe 'the Devils get screwed by the refs'. It's all based in the idea that the team you watch all the time is fundamentally different from teams you watch 5 times a year.

Are the Devils playing like a top defensive team lately? No, they're not, but they're missing some of their top defensive forwards. The play has gotten sloppier. The structure is still considerably better than last season.

What you guys seem to believe is that other playoff teams do not have as bad stretches as the Devils, either in wins and losses or in play that is not reflected in wins and losses, and that is not the case.

This is all presumptive strawmanning. No one is saying definitively that every other good defensive team is more consistent. We can see from how much we observe this team directly that there is a wide gap between their worst hockey and their best, and that they frequently flip between these extremes not just game to game but period to period. Yes fluctuations like this are normal in hockey, but the degree and frequency can and does vary. The data is not going to capture the degree of distribution of quality of play. Dismissing our observations of it as if we’ve never watched hockey before and have never seen a more consistent distribution from past devils teams before is once again arrogant and insulting people’s intelligence. I can confidently say for example that the 2022-23 team’s worst hockey was not as bad as this team’s worst hockey…but by the same token this team’s best defense is better than that team’s who had much less structure…there’s no stat to prove it so yes that is all eye test but there’s literally nothing else at our disposal in this regard.

It is not a large leap to believe that there are at least some teams who average similarly defensive play as the devils but who distribution of quality is smaller and more consistent. Again, there are currently no hard stats to prove this or which teams those are unless you watch them as much as the devils, but it’s common sense.

 

[Triumph]

An average is actually an excellent way to look at a teams defensive ability. it takes the entire body of work into account, good, bad, and mid, and, crucially, how often each of those performances occur, not just game to game but within games. A team that gives up less goals, all other things being equal, will win more games, more or less regardless of distribution (within nhl norms).

I’m not saying consistency is bad but the the way you have a low xGA or GAA is by being consistent. Teams don’t have numbers as good as the devils if they’re not. The devils have breakdowns and bad games. That is true of every team in the whole league. The devils demonstrably have fewer than the average team, as evidenced by our good defensive stats!

The thing that set me off was the mention of pond hockey. To me, the Devils don't get enough rush chances these days given their personnel - they have the kind of players that can fly the zone and profit from it sometimes. I think of pond hockey as trading chances back and forth and to me the Devils don't do that enough these days.

 

[Devils731]

I can confidently say for example that the 2022-23 team’s worst hockey was not as bad as this team’s worst hockey

The 22-23 team had a 6 game losing streak where the gave up 24 goals and only scored 12.

All teams have bad stretches and I think you shouldn’t be so confident that the 22-23 didn’t look awful at times.

I remember people going “the winning streak is long behind us, this is the real team.” type stuff, same as we get now.

 

[guitarguyvic]

An average is actually an excellent way to look at a teams defensive ability. it takes the entire body of work into account, good, bad, and mid, and, crucially, how often each of those performances occur, not just game to game but within games. A team that gives up less goals, all other things being equal, will win more games, more or less regardless of distribution (within nhl norms).

I’m not saying consistency is bad but the the way you have a low xGA or GAA is by being consistent. Teams don’t have numbers as good as the devils if they’re not. The devils have breakdowns and bad games. That is true of every team in the whole league. The devils demonstrably have fewer than the average team, as evidenced by our good defensive stats!

I get it, but my push back is that large or frequent fluctuations in quality is consequential, particularly in hockey, and particularly come playoff time when the results of a short sample size matter exponentially more than in the regular season.

Two teams in the playoffs. Both with similar average metrics. Team A has demonstrated an ability to deliver above average play play 75% and slightly below average play 25% of the time. Team B delivers top 5 performance 50% of the time but bottom 5 performance the other 50%. Who do you feel more confident about in a short series?

This is basically a floor/ceiling analysis.

 

[Triumph]

This is all presumptive strawmanning. No one is saying definitively that every other good defensive team is more consistent. We can see from how much we observe this team directly that there is a wide gap between their worst hockey and their best, and that they frequently flip between these extremes not just game to game but period to period. Yes fluctuations like this are normal in hockey, but the degree and frequency can and does vary. The data is not going to capture the degree of distribution of quality of play.

Oh huh, the data isn't going to capture that. I guess you've studied the data deeply and come to that conclusion.

All this says to me is 'I watch one team'. It's hockey.

Dismissing our observations of it as if we’ve never watched hockey before and have never seen a more consistent distribution from past devils teams before is once again arrogant and insulting people’s intelligence.

It's all just confirmation bias and recency bias. Do you really think you have a handle on how consistent Devils teams of the past were? I definitely think they were more consistent than this team, but guess what, I have no idea! And neither do you!

I saw billingtons ghost express confusion over the idea that a player coming out of the penalty box plays right wing until he can change; he thought players just skate off after they serve a penalty. I don't know why I'd dismiss his observations or insult his intelligence. Anyway he doesn't read my posts and generally I don't read his, and if you read his, you would see just as much arrogance.

I can confidently say for example that the 2022-23 team’s worst hockey was not as bad as this team’s worst hockey…but by the same token this team’s best defense is better than that team’s who had much less structure…there’s no stat to prove it so yes that is all eye test but there’s literally nothing else at our disposal in this regard.

I think you've forgotten the worst stretch of 2022-23 as has everyone else. You've forgotten it because the Devils mostly won during that time.

It is not a large leap to believe that there are at least some teams who average similarly defensive play as the devils but who distribution of quality is smaller and more consistent. Again, there are currently no hard stats to prove this or which teams those are unless you watch them as much as the devils, but it’s common sense.

I mean, this is so easily measurable, but you just say there's no hard stats to prove this and then say it's common sense. Pretty classic stuff. My easily provable or disprovable hypothesis? No answer - it's just common sense that I'm right!

 

[Devils731]

Team A has demonstrated an ability to deliver above average play play 75% and slightly below average play 25% of the time. Team B delivers top 5 performance 50% of the time but bottom 5 performance the other 50%.

Team B probably didn’t make the playoffs and Team A may be the greatest team of all time, so I don’t think this is a good head exercise for a playoff series proxy.