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Devils discussion (news, notes and speculation) - part III

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Billdo said:
The problem is that what was a 10 point difference between us and Carolina two weeks ago is now 1 point. We're also only 7 ahead of Lumbus and they've got 3 games in hand. This needs to be fixed and it needs to be fixed soon.
Click to expand...
Columbus won like 7 in a row or something. That’s not a sustainable pace. This Devils team winning like 2 out of 9 also isn’t a sustainable pace. They’re shooting about 7% and every loss has been a 1 goal game or OT.

Just relax.
 
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The last couple weeks have been absolutely horrendous for sports. Devils can't win, worst possible outcome for the NCAA championship, worst possible outcome for the NFC championship.....
 
Rags and Devils are only separated by 1 loss. BJ’s and the Devils are sparated by 1 loss..

I hope you all, put that in your pipes and smoke it..

1737345078941.gif
 
BurntToast said:
Rags and Devils are only separated by 1 loss. BJ’s and the Devils are sparated by 1 loss..

I hope you all, put that in your pipes and smoke it..

View attachment 964000
Click to expand...
Both of those teams have to win all of their Games in hand for that to manifest

Devils used up their bubble tho. They gotta take care of their own business
 
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NjDevsRR said:
I think it was 9 at one point. But they had 3 gms in hand
Click to expand...
It was 8 points after the December 27 game, but with 3 games in hand as you said. That's why it is never good to look at point gaps during the season. It might have been a bit larger before that, but I'm not going back to look.

Now is a good time to look at the standings by point percentages with games back and try to look at the full picture. As always games back is calculated by point differential +/- number of games in hand. Then dive by 2.

Metro and Wild Card Standings:
TeamGames PlayedPointsPts %Div. Games BackWC Games Back
Washington4667.728--+8.0
Carolina4657.6205.0+3.0
New Jersey4958.5926.0+2.0
--------WILDCARD--------
Ottawa4652.565N/A+0.5
Columbus4651.5548.0--
----- OUTOFTHEPLAYOFFS----
Montreal4650.543N/A0.5
Boston4750.532N/A1.0
NY Rangers4648.5229.51.5
Philadelphia4748.51110.02.0
Detroit4646.500N/A2.5
Pittsburgh4846.47911.53.5
NY Isles4543.47811.53.5

Remaining Head-to-Head vs New Jersey
Ottawa: 1 game
Columbus: 2 games
Montreal: 2 games
Boston: 2 Games
Rangers: 1 Games
Philadelphia: 3 games

Some observations:
  1. The division is out of reach at this point. No head to head matchups vs the Caps left at this point. They have stretched the lead 6 games. That is a lot to make up over 33 games. Even if they play .550 hockey that is 106 points. Carolina still has two head to head matchups with them so they have an outside chance.
  2. I thought the November-December stretch was going to be the season because the divisional head-to heads. But this stretch put us right back where we were before. On November 20th, they were 2.5 games up on first out of the playoffs (then the Islanders). After Dec. 28 (the first loss of this run), they were 6 games up on first out of the playoffs (then Pittsburgh). It's now back to 2.5 games.
  3. The dropped points hurts. 3-4 additional points and it is still more comfortable.
  4. This is a key week with Boston and Montreal coming up. Win the games and everything is likely to be back comfortable. Lose and we are at the point where worrying should start. Split and its see how the Philly games go.
  5. The various models tomorrow should have them all around 90% to make the playoffs. That is a 1-in-10 chance to miss the playoffs. Another bad week and that could be down to 1-in-5 chance to miss (80% chance to make). Unlikely still, but not unrealistic.
It's not panic yet, and not even worry yet. But we are now in concerning territory.

Also, if you are looking for a good at glance look at the standings, Moneypuck's Standings chart which tracks points above Point Per Game Pace is very good. Basically the same as above.
 
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jkrdevil said:
It was 8 points after the December 27 game, but with 3 games in hand as you said. That's why it is never good to look at point gaps during the season. It might have been a bit larger before that, but I'm not going back to look.

Now is a good time to look at the standings by point percentages with games back and try to look at the full picture. As always games back is calculated by point differential +/- number of games in hand. Then dive by 2.

Metro and Wild Card Standings:
TeamGames PlayedPointsPts %Div. Games BackWC Games Back
Washington4667.728--+8.0
Carolina4657.6205.0+3.0
New Jersey4958.5926.0+2.0
--------WILDCARD--------
Ottawa4652.565N/A+0.5
Columbus4651.5548.0--
-----OUTOFTHEPLAYOFFS----
Montreal4650.543N/A0.5
Boston4750.532N/A1.0
NY Rangers4648.5229.51.5
Philadelphia4748.51110.02.0
Detroit4646.500N/A2.5
Pittsburgh4846.47911.53.5
NY Isles4543.47811.53.5

Remaining Head-to-Head vs New Jersey
Ottawa: 1 game
Columbus: 2 games
Montreal: 2 games
Boston: 2 Games
Rangers: 1 Games
Philadelphia: 3 games

Some observations:
  1. The division is out of reach at this point. No head to head matchups vs the Caps left at this point. They have stretched the lead 6 games. That is a lot to make up over 33 games. Even if they play .550 hockey that is 106 points. Carolina still has two head to head matchups with them so they have an outside chance.
  2. I thought the November-December stretch was going to be the season because the divisional head-to heads. But this stretch put us right back where we were before. On November 20th, they were 2.5 games up on first out of the playoffs (then the Islanders). After Dec. 28 (the first loss of this run), they were 6 games up on first out of the playoffs (then Pittsburgh). It's now back to 2.5 games.
  3. The dropped points hurts. 3-4 additional points and it is still more comfortable.
  4. This is a key week with Boston and Montreal coming up. Win the games and everything is likely to be back comfortable. Lose and we are at the point where worrying should start. Split and its see how the Philly games go.
  5. The various models tomorrow should have them all around 90% to make the playoffs. That is a 1-in-10 chance to miss the playoffs. Another bad week and that could be down to 1-in-5 chance to miss (80% chance to make). Unlikely still, but not unrealistic.
It's not panic yet, and not even worry yet. But we are now in concerning territory.

Also, if you are looking for a good at glance look at the standings, Moneypuck's Standings chart which tracks points above Point Per Game Pace is very good. Basically the same as above.
Click to expand...
This guy stats
 
jkrdevil said:
It was 8 points after the December 27 game, but with 3 games in hand as you said. That's why it is never good to look at point gaps during the season. It might have been a bit larger before that, but I'm not going back to look.

Now is a good time to look at the standings by point percentages with games back and try to look at the full picture. As always games back is calculated by point differential +/- number of games in hand. Then dive by 2.

Metro and Wild Card Standings:
TeamGames PlayedPointsPts %Div. Games BackWC Games Back
Washington4667.728--+8.0
Carolina4657.6205.0+3.0
New Jersey4958.5926.0+2.0
--------WILDCARD--------
Ottawa4652.565N/A+0.5
Columbus4651.5548.0--
-----OUTOFTHEPLAYOFFS----
Montreal4650.543N/A0.5
Boston4750.532N/A1.0
NY Rangers4648.5229.51.5
Philadelphia4748.51110.02.0
Detroit4646.500N/A2.5
Pittsburgh4846.47911.53.5
NY Isles4543.47811.53.5

Remaining Head-to-Head vs New Jersey
Ottawa: 1 game
Columbus: 2 games
Montreal: 2 games
Boston: 2 Games
Rangers: 1 Games
Philadelphia: 3 games

Some observations:
  1. The division is out of reach at this point. No head to head matchups vs the Caps left at this point. They have stretched the lead 6 games. That is a lot to make up over 33 games. Even if they play .550 hockey that is 106 points. Carolina still has two head to head matchups with them so they have an outside chance.
  2. I thought the November-December stretch was going to be the season because the divisional head-to heads. But this stretch put us right back where we were before. On November 20th, they were 2.5 games up on first out of the playoffs (then the Islanders). After Dec. 28 (the first loss of this run), they were 6 games up on first out of the playoffs (then Pittsburgh). It's now back to 2.5 games.
  3. The dropped points hurts. 3-4 additional points and it is still more comfortable.
  4. This is a key week with Boston and Montreal coming up. Win the games and everything is likely to be back comfortable. Lose and we are at the point where worrying should start. Split and its see how the Philly games go.
  5. The various models tomorrow should have them all around 90% to make the playoffs. That is a 1-in-10 chance to miss the playoffs. Another bad week and that could be down to 1-in-5 chance to miss (80% chance to make). Unlikely still, but not unrealistic.
It's not panic yet, and not even worry yet. But we are now in concerning territory.

Also, if you are looking for a good at glance look at the standings, Moneypuck's Standings chart which tracks points above Point Per Game Pace is very good. Basically the same as above.
Click to expand...
Super unfortunate that we even have to discuss this after where they were before the break, but as you said, no need to worry still. It’s up to the boys to figure it out.
 
there’s 33 games left, it’s not a stretch by any means to think that this devils team will lose 3-4 more games than the teams behind them. the playoffs are not guaranteed
 
Personally, I can't put much stock worrying about the the standings in January when so much of the conference has been treading water across the board. Now, we've reached a point after this weekend where we're not treading water, we're sinking. But, I don't expect this team to continue doing that the remainder of the season.

If we continue to not be able to take care of our own business, it won't really matter.
 
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Unknown Caller said:
Zero forward depth, although Bastian-Lazar-Tatar have been maybe the best line over the past couple games. Top guys are sucking wind. Defensemen bring no offensive threat to the table aside from Luke on occasion.

This is all a result of Fitz being so focused on being “hard to play against” that he’s completely neutered this team’s skill and speed identity.
Click to expand...
Oh brother what a hot take. Somehow adding Noesen, our leading goalscorer and Cotter, who has most of our goals the past few games, Dillon and Kovacevic has had a negative effect on Jack, Bratt, Nico, Timo, Palat, Mercer, Hamilton, Luke and Tatar, our talented core worth >$50m?

In case you haven't noticed, this team still flies around the ice. They just turn pucks over at the blue line, and NONE of those guys above have the complete to win a puck battle for their lives right now.

If anything, given the structure of Keefe and the goaltending we've gotten we could play a team of third liners and actually win these games. Adding those guys has made it so we lose 2-1 instead of 6-1
 
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Zacha37 said:
This is the result of Fitz neglecting the forward position in the last few drafts, especially center. Cant let this season die, need to make a move, even if it’s Nemec.
Click to expand...
I can't believe with a team that has Jack, Nico, Timo, Bratt, Hamilton at $8m+, Palat and Mercer at $6m, and Luke we are looking for answers in the secondary scoring and defensemen.

Win a puck. Go to the net. Hit the net with shots. Get them through. Make quicker/better decisions.

Other than having Fitz go out and actually play the game himself, idk wtf the guy could do. He's literally checked every box to have these talented players in the position with an elite goaltender and a good coach.

Time for All of them to find their games.
 
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billingtons ghost said:
Oh brother what a hot take. Somehow adding Noesen, our leading goalscorer and Cotter, who has most of our goals the past few games, Dillon and Kovacevic has had a negative effect on Jack, Bratt, Nico, Timo, Palat, Mercer, Hamilton, Luke and Tatar, our talented core worth >$50m?

In case you haven't noticed, this team still flies around the ice. They just turn pucks over at the blue line, and NONE of those guys above have the complete to win a puck battle for their lives right now.

If anything, given the structure of Keefe and the goaltending we've gotten we could play a team of third liners and actually win these games. Adding those guys has made it so we lose 2-1 instead of 6-1
Click to expand...
Nico is our leading goal scorer.
 
billingtons ghost said:
I can't believe with a team that has Jack, Nico, Timo, Bratt, Hamilton at $8m+, Palat and Mercer at $6m, and Luke we are looking for answers in the secondary scoring and defensemen.

Win a puck. Go to the net. Hit the net with shots. Get them through. Make quicker/better decisions.

Other than having Fitz go out and actually play the game himself, idk wtf the guy could do. He's literally checked every box to have these talented players in the position with an elite goaltender and a good coach.

Time for All of them to find their games.
Click to expand...
They have to figure it out, spot on. Shouldn’t be that hard, they were all doing that stuff for an extended period of time before the break.
 
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billingtons ghost said:
I can't believe with a team that has Jack, Nico, Timo, Bratt, Hamilton at $8m+, Palat and Mercer at $6m, and Luke we are looking for answers in the secondary scoring and defensemen.

Win a puck. Go to the net. Hit the net with shots. Get them through. Make quicker/better decisions.

Other than having Fitz go out and actually play the game himself, idk wtf the guy could do. He's literally checked every box to have these talented players in the position with an elite goaltender and a good coach.

Time for All of them to find their games.
Click to expand...

There was a time where the lack of secondary scoring was the biggest problem, but that hasn't been the larger issue in this downward stretch as you mention. And Keefe said it very plainly after the game yesterday, the best players have to be better. Plain and simple.

I know people point to the road trip as well, but I do think that the virus coupling onto the team after that tough stretch has just made it an even larger hill to climb. They did themselves no favors on that trip, and then found themselves with less energy for this important stretch of hockey. You can see it in their skating and their level of play as the game wore on (something they excelled at in their best stretch of the season). It's what makes it clear as day to me that they need this gap in games to finally appear.

Keefe has kept the line change bullets in his chamber, but I would expect him to shuffle things around this week. Maybe he won't if he thinks they need an energy reset, but I think it'd be an ideal wake up call for the top guys.
 
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…”Tomas Tatar, Erik Haula, Curtis Lazar, Justin Dowling, Kurtis MacDermid and Nate Bastian have a combined 33 points in 185 combined games”…. 😳
 
Mercer is on a pace for 16 goals. It’s hard to believe this is the same player who scored 28 in his sophomore season. I was a big fan of the kid and hope he turns it around offensively but it’s hard to be optimistic at this point. He’s one of the most frustrating players on the team because I see a guy with great hands and a shot that is pretty good (yet he is so reluctant to shoot and looks like he has no confidence in his shot). It’s concerning that playing with Nico and Timo didn’t get him going. If that didn’t jumpstart him, what will? I’m not trying to dump on Mercer but he’s certainly a part of secondary scoring problems. I know he does everything else well enough to be a solid third line player but he leaves me wanting more….the skills are there.

Patience was preached after his down year last season. We are now nearly 2/3 into this campaign. What to do?
 
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