It was 8 points after the December 27 game, but with 3 games in hand as you said. That's why it is never good to look at point gaps during the season. It might have been a bit larger before that, but I'm not going back to look.
Now is a good time to look at the standings by point percentages with games back and try to look at the full picture. As always games back is calculated by point differential +/- number of games in hand. Then dive by 2.
Metro and Wild Card Standings:
| Team | Games Played | Points | Pts % | Div. Games Back | WC Games Back |
|---|
| Washington | 46 | 67 | .728 | -- | +8.0 |
| Carolina | 46 | 57 | .620 | 5.0 | +3.0 |
| New Jersey | 49 | 58 | .592 | 6.0 | +2.0 |
| ---- | ---- | WILD | CARD | ---- | ---- |
| Ottawa | 46 | 52 | .565 | N/A | +0.5 |
| Columbus | 46 | 51 | .554 | 8.0 | -- |
| ----- | OUT | OF | THE | PLAYOFFS | ---- |
| Montreal | 46 | 50 | .543 | N/A | 0.5 |
| Boston | 47 | 50 | .532 | N/A | 1.0 |
| NY Rangers | 46 | 48 | .522 | 9.5 | 1.5 |
| Philadelphia | 47 | 48 | .511 | 10.0 | 2.0 |
| Detroit | 46 | 46 | .500 | N/A | 2.5 |
| Pittsburgh | 48 | 46 | .479 | 11.5 | 3.5 |
| NY Isles | 45 | 43 | .478 | 11.5 | 3.5 |
Remaining Head-to-Head vs New Jersey
Ottawa: 1 game
Columbus: 2 games
Montreal: 2 games
Boston: 2 Games
Rangers: 1 Games
Philadelphia: 3 games
Some observations:
- The division is out of reach at this point. No head to head matchups vs the Caps left at this point. They have stretched the lead 6 games. That is a lot to make up over 33 games. Even if they play .550 hockey that is 106 points. Carolina still has two head to head matchups with them so they have an outside chance.
- I thought the November-December stretch was going to be the season because the divisional head-to heads. But this stretch put us right back where we were before. On November 20th, they were 2.5 games up on first out of the playoffs (then the Islanders). After Dec. 28 (the first loss of this run), they were 6 games up on first out of the playoffs (then Pittsburgh). It's now back to 2.5 games.
- The dropped points hurts. 3-4 additional points and it is still more comfortable.
- This is a key week with Boston and Montreal coming up. Win the games and everything is likely to be back comfortable. Lose and we are at the point where worrying should start. Split and its see how the Philly games go.
- The various models tomorrow should have them all around 90% to make the playoffs. That is a 1-in-10 chance to miss the playoffs. Another bad week and that could be down to 1-in-5 chance to miss (80% chance to make). Unlikely still, but not unrealistic.
It's not panic yet, and not even worry yet. But we are now in concerning territory.
Also, if you are looking for a good at glance look at the standings, Moneypuck's Standings chart which tracks points above Point Per Game Pace is very good. Basically the same as above.
