Devils discussion (news, notes and speculation) - part III

[NJDevs26]

You are very strident in your opinions which is fine but the lmao and AINEC type of language doesn’t prove you are right and it turns off whoever you are having a discussion with. You will make better points just explaining why you think what you do and leave room for people to have a good point even if it doesn’t predominate for you in forming your opinion.

Yeah the back and forth is getting a little too unnecessarily heated in here with certain people. I’m not even sure what the argument is other than how good Mercer is. Problem with Mercer is he’s declined where other guys his age are improving.

 

[Lou Bloom]

Appeal to authority lmao.

NHL teams aren't infallible.

Just want to clarify.

When NJD acquires a guy who is doing very well in a smaller role elsewhere and promotes him to a role in the top 6 where he continues to do well, it's "he's still not a top 6 guy why would they let a top 6 guy go"?

But when a different team takes a guy who was doing very well in a smaller role elsewhere and promotes him to a role in the top 6 where he continues to do well, that guy then actually was a hidden top 6 guy the whole time?

He's playing under 13 minutes 5v5 this season, less than Paul Cotter. He's 8th on the Devils in 5v5 TOI. He's basically the forward version of Ghost, a great PP weapon and good player in a limited role.

All those other players were in their early to mid 20s and had either already cemented or were in the process of cementing themselves as legit top 6 players prior to those teams winning Stanley cups.

 

[devilsblood]

Palat is the perfect winger for Hughes and Bratt. The only way you can upgrade is getting a guy who plays like Palat but is better, and there are extremely few of those guys, and probably none of them are available. You need someone who can play without the puck and get to the scoring areas.

Also I find a lot of the ideas here involve moving Bratt to LW, where he hasn't played all that much and I suspect he will lose some of his best moves. He's so good on his off-wing at knowing how to attack defenders.

Ya. Palat's goal scoring rate over the last 25 games is the best on the team. Tied for 25th in league during that stretch.

I've wavered a little recently because he's botched a couple op's, but he's burying them at an excellent rate.

 

[Lou Bloom]

Lmao again. So we're retroactively saying those players were better BECAUSE they won the cup.

Yes, if you automatically view every single player to be in the top 6 of a cup winning team as a "legit top 6 guy" BECAUSE they won the cup, then every team to win the cup will have exclusively "legit top 6 guys".

No, I'm saying at the time they won the Stanley cup to specify the year we're talking about. No where did I imply that they were top 6 caliber because they won a Stanley Cup.

 

[dgibb10]

He's playing under 13 minutes 5v5 this season, less than Paul Cotter. He's 8th on the Devils in 5v5 TOI. He's basically the forward version of Ghost, a great PP weapon and good player in a limited role.

All those other players were in their early to mid 20s and had either already cemented or were in the process of cementing themselves as legit top 6 players prior to those teams winning Stanley cups.

And you don't think 23 year old mercer is "in the process of becoming a top 6 player"

Mercer

Tuch

Lehkonen

Wilson

Stephenson

Bennett

Barbashev

All these guys you paint as evidence that you need top 6 guys, really seem more like evidence of why getting rid of mercer would be stupid. You want to "get in on a guy as he improves", but lack the patience to wait for mercer, despite him having ALREADY SHOWN he can be a legit top 6 guy in 22-23.

You are Montreal giving up lehkonen, you are Calgary giving up on bennett, you are WSH giving up on stephenson, You are Veg giving up on Tuch. And you are convincing yourself you're the other side

 

[devilsblood]

He's playing under 13 minutes 5v5 this season, less than Paul Cotter. He's 8th on the Devils in 5v5 TOI. He's basically the forward version of Ghost, a great PP weapon and good player in a limited role.

All those other players were in their early to mid 20s and had either already cemented or were in the process of cementing themselves as legit top 6 players prior to those teams winning Stanley cups.

I assume we are talking Noesen here?

If so Timo Nico Noesen has been good together. I don't see the need to change it up.

 

[Billdo]

I wouldn't take Zacha back for free

That's silly.

 

[dgibb10]

No, I'm saying at the time they won the Stanley cup to specify the year we're talking about. No where did I imply that they were top 6 caliber because they won a Stanley Cup.

Wilson had 35 points in the cup year getting 16 minutes a night. How is he "legit top 6" but mercer, noesen, or palat aren't.

Cirelli and Johnson both had 22 points the year tampa won their second cup. Cirelli in 18 minutes a night.

A few veterans with similar profiles to palat in that they'd fallen off but you'll still call them top 6.
A few kids still developing with similar profiles to mercer but you'll still call them top 6
A few cast offs having great play similar to noesen but you'll still call them top 6.

The logic for why a number of these guys can be "legit top 6" but Palat/Noesen/Mercer cannot be, seems to just be "they were on a cup winning team", combined with retroactively looking back.

You seem to be looking at these cup teams and assigning a guy as "top 6 caliber" if they meet any of the following criteria

-were a legit top 6 guy in the past (the Tyler Johnson) but won't give the same to Palat now.
-a young kid who would go on to become a top 6 guy in the future (the Tom Wilson) but won't give the same to mercer now.
-were playing at a top 6 level at that time, regardless of if they were at their previous stop (the Arturri Lehkonen), but won't give the same to Noesen

 

[devilsblood]

I understand the general idea that a good winger can be more useful then a not as good center.

But the clear need we have is a 3rd line center who can take some of the defensive pressure off of Nico.

I think, assuming Haula's MRI didn't reveal a longish term injury, we will, and should, allow him to get back and see if he can fill that role.

I think Lazar has not quite fully returned to form, and Keefe has deployed him as such. So as he continues to get up to speed he will likely see some of those defensive minutes.

 

[jkrdevil]

I also don't really get the "we absolutely 100% need a top 6 winger!" over a center mindset.

Nico is being asked to shoulder a HEAVY defensive load because we do not have a real 3C right now which almost renders that line useless. That obviously affects he and his line on the offensive end as well. I think acquiring a legitimate 3C and allowing Nico's line to be a bit more offensive minded will go a LONG way.

We don't need to replace Palat at the moment. He has 11 pts in the last 15 games. That is way more than adequate.

It’s a fantasy hockey mindset and I’ve been guilty of it when I was younger.

There is only one puck and a line can only score 1 goal at a time. Palat-Hughes-Bratt ranks tied for 3rd as a line for goals for at 5v5. There isn’t much more juice to get out of that line. Any added production from a new person on that line is probably just a shift of points from Jack and Bratt to them (or they will have the same production as Palat. Plus, an acquisition isn’t going to get PP time so you are probably going to overpay in a trade for the production you will actually get.

Bumping Palat down to the third line probably doesn’t boost that lines production because his job is win picks off the board and get open. He isn’t driving the line. A center will and that where we can get more juice out of the lineup. With limited cap space and picks, shopping for a 3C is a more prudent move.

 

[devilsblood]

Over the last 15 games played Palat is tied for the league lead with 7 5v5 goals.

2nd in the league in 5v5 goal rate.

 

[dgibb10]

He's playing under 13 minutes 5v5 this season, less than Paul Cotter. He's 8th on the Devils in 5v5 TOI. He's basically the forward version of Ghost, a great PP weapon and good player in a limited role.

All those other players were in their early to mid 20s and had either already cemented or were in the process of cementing themselves as legit top 6 players prior to those teams winning Stanley cups.

Sounds like exactly the point.

Palat and Noesen don't actually play that much.

You are paying star prices (and some hefty assets) to get a guy to fill 12-13 minutes a night 5v5 as the 3rd fiddle on a line, and not help our special teams.

Upgrading on Haula or Cotters slots does the same thing

 

[Lou Bloom]

And you don't think 23 year old mercer is "in the process of becoming a top 6 player"

Mercer
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Tuch
View attachment 960127
Lehkonen
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Wilson
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StephensonView attachment 960130
Bennett
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Barbashev
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All these guys you paint as evidence that you need top 6 guys, really seem more like evidence of why getting rid of mercer would be stupid. You want to "get in on a guy as he improves", but lack the patience to wait for mercer, despite him having ALREADY SHOWN he can be a legit top 6 guy in 22-23

Trajectory and situation. Mercer has been given a ton of opportunity to become a top 6 stalwart in the lineup since his debut. He's arguably had his two worst seasons of play these past wo years compared to his first two.

The majority of those players were played in lesser roles and worked their way up the lineup. They also brought a lot of other elements to the game apart from just scoring.

And it's also possible that Mercer turns it around and becomes a good player, but basing it off of completely different situations like the ones you brought up is not a strong argument for it.

Wilson had 35 points in the cup year getting 16 minutes a night. How is he "legit top 6" but mercer, noesen, or palat aren't.

Cirelli and Johnson both had 22 points the year tampa won their second cup. Cirelli in 18 minutes a night.

A few veterans with similar profiles to palat in that they'd fallen off but you'll still call them top 6.
A few kids still developing with similar profiles to mercer but you'll still call them top 6
A few cast offs having great play similar to noesen but you'll still call them top 6.

The logic for why a number of these guys can be "legit top 6" but Palat/Noesen/Mercer cannot be, seems to just be "they were on a cup winning team", combined with retroactively looking back.

You seem to be looking at these cup teams and assigning a guy as "top 6 caliber" if they meet any of the following criteria

-were a legit top 6 guy in the past (the Tyler Johnson) but won't give the same to Palat now.
-a young kid who would go on to become a top 6 guy in the future (the Tom Wilson) but won't give the same to mercer now.
-were playing at a top 6 level at that time, regardless of if they were at their previous stop (the Arturri Lehkonen), but won't give the same to Noesen

Wilson was also one of the most physical players in the league and great defensively. The narrative at the time (and still basically till today) was every team wanted a Tom Wilson. Do you really think he wasn't a much more impactful player than Mercer currently is?

Cirelli put up 22 in in 50 games after putting up 44 in 68 games the year prior all while bringing Selke level defense. Are you going to argue that Mercer is a similar level of impact to Cirelli?

By the time they won their second cup Tyler Johnson wasn't a legit top 6 player anymore but even then those teams still had Point, Stamkos, Kucherov, Palat, Cirelli, Killorn, Coleman and Gourde on them, they were absolutely loaded with forward talent.

Comparing Wilson and Mercer is ridiculous.

Lehkonen was an elite PKer and much better defensive player that also had great 5v5 production.

My logic is simple, you just bring in bad comparables and when I disagree with them ignore my actual criticisms and default to "must be because they won the Stanley cup".

 

[Blender]

Over the last 15 games played Palat is tied for the league lead with 7 5v5 goals.

2nd in the league in 5v5 goal rate.

He's been playing a lot better. Need consistency long term from him at his AAV though.

 

[Lou Bloom]

It’s a fantasy hockey mindset and I’ve been guilty of it when I was younger.

There is only one puck and a line can only score 1 goal at a time. Palat-Hughes-Bratt ranks tied for 3rd as a line for goals for at 5v5. There isn’t much more juice to get out of that line. Any added production from a new person on that line is probably just a shift of points from Jack and Bratt to them (or they will have the same production as Palat. Plus, an acquisition isn’t going to get PP time so you are probably going to overpay in a trade for the production you will actually get.

Bumping Palat down to the third line probably doesn’t boost that lines production because his job is win picks off the board and get open. He isn’t driving the line. A center will and that where we can get more juice out of the lineup. With limited cap space and picks, shopping for a 3C is a more prudent move.

There's more ways to impact a game then just having a puck on your stick. If a player is great at helping a team keep possession and great at preventing the other team from gaining possession then he is effectively creating more opportunities for players like Hughes and Bratt to create scoring chances. Not to mention if they have the ability to create chances on their own also they will be able to create more dangerous chances for our best players. The argument "There's only one puck" only works if someone is arguing for adding a bunch of players that's only value is tied to point totals.

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

What are you talking about? I said "If Haula can come back and be effective" and then you yourself said "I have no interest in waiting".

But sure, what you really meant was "not now".

I have no interest in waiting to see if Haula will be ready WHEN HE COMES BACK. We should not be making any decisions with relying on him in mind. That doesn't mean that a trade has to be made NOW.

Nowhere did I say to make a trade now.

That's silly.

why? Been there, done that. Moved on to bigger and better things.

 

[devilsblood]

He's been playing a lot better. Need consistency long term from him at his AAV though.

I posted his 25 game numbers above, that's a good stretch. Do we want that to continue, of course, but I think he's in an interesting position of playing relatively easy minutes where the focus is, to some extent, finish these setups from Hughes and Bratt. That is a shift from how he's played much of his career and I would think take some acclimating.

We also have to consider the situation with his kid. I don't know the exact date, but the before and after numbers are stark.

 

[jkrdevil]

There's more ways to impact a game then just having a puck on your stick. If a player is great at helping a team keep possession and great at preventing the other team from gaining possession then he is effectively creating more opportunities for players like Hughes and Bratt to create scoring chances. Not to mention if they have the ability to create chances on their own also they will be able to create more dangerous chances for our best players. The argument "There's only one puck" only works if someone is arguing for adding a bunch of players that's only value is tied to point totals.

I understand that. But both of our top lines are also near the top of the league at preventing the other team goals and scoring opps.

 

[devilsblood]

I have no interest in waiting to see if Haula will be ready WHEN HE COMES BACK. We should not be making any decisions with relying on him in mind. That doesn't mean that a trade has to be made NOW.

Nowhere did I say to make a trade now.

"Make a move" , the at the deadline part was clearly implied. lol.

 

[Lou Bloom]

Sounds like exactly the point.

Palat and Noesen don't actually play that much.

You are paying star prices (and some hefty assets) to get a guy to fill 12-13 minutes a night 5v5 as the 3rd fiddle on a line, and not help our special teams.

Upgrading on Haula or Cotters slots does the same thing

It doesn't work like that, Especially in the playoffs when teams often ask their star players to play much more. If the Devils added a high end player then you would see the minutes drop from all your worst forwards in order to maximize the TOI for your best players. This would mean more time on ice with high end talent and less time on ice for worse talent. They wouldn't just add someone like Marner for example and play him 12-13 minutes 5v5 because that's currently what Palat and Noesen play, they would play him the usual 15-16 minutes and take away minutes in the aggregate from the worst forwards.

 

[dgibb10]

Trajectory and situation. Mercer has been given a ton of opportunity to become a top 6 stalwart in the lineup since his debut. He's arguably had his two worst seasons of play these past wo years compared to his first two.

The majority of those players were played in lesser roles and worked their way up the lineup. They also brought a lot of other elements to the game apart from just scoring.

And it's also possible that Mercer turns it around and becomes a good player, but basing it off of completely different situations like the ones you brought up is not a strong argument for it.

Wilson was also one of the most physical players in the league and great defensively. The narrative at the time (and still basically till today) was every team wanted a Tom Wilson. Do you really think he wasn't a much more impactful player than Mercer currently is?

Cirelli put up 22 in in 50 games after putting up 44 in 68 games the year prior all while bringing Selke level defense. Are you going to argue that Mercer is a similar level of impact to Cirelli?

By the time they won their second cup Tyler Johnson wasn't a legit top 6 player anymore but even then those teams still had Point, Stamkos, Kucherov, Palat, Cirelli, Killorn, Coleman and Gourde on them, they were absolutely loaded with forward talent.

Comparing Wilson and Mercer is ridiculous.

Lehkonen was an elite PKer and much better defensive player that also had great 5v5 production.

My logic is simple, you just bring in bad comparables and when I disagree with them ignore my actual criticisms and default to "must be because they won the Stanley cup".

"The majority of those players were played in lesser roles and worked their way up the lineup. They also brought a lot of other elements to the game apart from just scoring."

Except you'll ignore elements other than 5v5 scoring when it comes to NJD.


Mercer is a very good PK guy. And don't go credit others, he's put up these PK results with 3 different coaches, with 3 very different PK dcores (Kovy-Siegs-Pesce-Dillon, Smith-Bahl-Marino-Siegs, Marino-Graves-Siegs-Sevo/Smith), and with multiple different partners (Hischier this year, Haula previously). And yes he is solid defensively

Noesen has been an excellent PP netfront guy and straight up dominant possession guy for multiple years now.

Palat again has always been quite good defensively and a leader in the room.

Be fr talking about "this guy provides good defense and PKing" or "this guy throws hits"when talking about "legit top 6 guys", like that was what you were talking about the whole time.'

You did not realize that Wilson didn't actually break out until 18-19, after they won the cup. And that's okay

Might as well call Paul Cotter a top 6 guy for hits then.

 

[devilsblood]

It doesn't work like that, Especially in the playoffs when teams often ask their star players to play much more. If the Devils added a high end player then you would see the minutes drop from all your worst forwards in order to maximize the TOI for your best players. This would mean more time on ice with high end talent and less time on ice for worse talent. They wouldn't just add someone like Marner for example and play him 12-13 minutes 5v5 because that's currently what Palat and Noesen play, they would play him the usual 15-16 minutes and take away minutes in the aggregate from the worst forwards.

Bratt plays less then Mercer 5v5, and one second more then Cotter.

 

[dgibb10]

There's more ways to impact a game then just having a puck on your stick. If a player is great at helping a team keep possession and great at preventing the other team from gaining possession then he is effectively creating more opportunities for players like Hughes and Bratt to create scoring chances. Not to mention if they have the ability to create chances on their own also they will be able to create more dangerous chances for our best players. The argument "There's only one puck" only works if someone is arguing for adding a bunch of players that's only value is tied to point totals.

Yeah this is like Palat and Noesen's bread and butter, possession monsters

 

[Lou Bloom]

Bratt plays less then Mercer 5v5, and one second more then Cotter.

Yeah, but he also plays 3 minutes on the Power play and 1:30 on the Penalty Kill. The Devils likely don't want to overplay him over the course of an 82 game season. If they added another player capable of playing 20+ minutes they'd look to lower the minutes of the bottom 6 in order to ensure they have their best players on the ice for a larger portion of the game.

 

[Lou Bloom]

"The majority of those players were played in lesser roles and worked their way up the lineup. They also brought a lot of other elements to the game apart from just scoring."

Except you'll ignore elements other than 5v5 scoring when it comes to NJD.


Mercer is a very good PK guy. And don't go credit others, he's put up these PK results with 3 different coaches, with 3 very different PK dcores (Kovy-Siegs-Pesce-Dillon, Smith-Bahl-Marino-Siegs, Marino-Graves-Siegs-Sevo/Smith), and with multiple different partners (Hischier this year, Haula previously). And yes he is solid defensively

Noesen has been an excellent PP netfront guy and straight up dominant possession guy for multiple years now.

Palat again has always been quite good defensively and a leader in the room.

Be fr talking about "this guy provides good defense and PKing" or "this guy throws hits"when talking about "legit top 6 guys", like that was what you were talking about the whole time.'

You did not realize that Wilson didn't actually break out until 18-19, after they won the cup. And that's okay

Might as well call Paul Cotter a top 6 guy for hits then.

I don't believe Mercer is good defensively, I think he's average at best and offensively he's been extremely limited the past two seasons despite being given opportunity in the top 6 plenty of times. He's still young and can turn it around but at this point I think he's a middling forward.

Noesen was great on the Power play and he's a great finisher. But I don't buy him being a dominant possession player, I think that's much more due to him playing on a Carolina team that has put up elite possession metrics year in and year out up and down their lineup and then getting to play on a line with Hischier and Meier for a large portion of this season. He's still good in that area but those numbers are buyoed by the situations he's been in.

Palat has been mediocre since arriving to NJ. He's not bad but he's very clearly being carried by two elite players.

Tom Wilson put up 35 points with only 1 point coming from the PP that season. He also put up 15 points in 21 games all Even strength in route to the Stanley Cup. He was clearly a High impact player that season.

Yeah because comparing Paul Cotter and Tom Wilson is a totally reasonable take.