Devils discussion (news, notes and speculation) - part III

[NJDevs26]

Problem is the cap isn’t even the only issue…you just can’t realistically keep all of Dougie, Kovacevic, Nemec AND Casey for ‘two’ RHD slots

You also can’t plan stuff on ‘if’ the cap goes up a few million before it actually does.

 

[BostonDevil]

Palat's play the last 6 weeks does not warrant a guy that needs to be dumped.

I think the problem is that he's playing in the wrong place. He should be on the 3rd line, not with Jack and Bratt.

He may have less points but more impact If he slides down in the lineup

 

[Incharge1976]

Hamilton put up very good results on the PK in Carolina. Problem solved.

If Kovacevic signs the siegs deal you can simply keep them both. Problem solved.

"Also it's f***ing funny that you're defending Dougie this bad but a guy who's been playing out of his skin for the majority of a year who was thought to be a 7D catches flak from you".

I have been saying Kovy has been elite this year all year. But when a guy doesn't have a large sample size of success, yes you keep a close watch for slips especially when discussing shipping out a consistently elite dman and keeping him.

After marino and siegs had disastrous years in 23-24, best believe I am wary of buying into 1 year of defensive success.


Hamilton was an effective PK guy in Carolina.

There is 0 reason to rush Casey into the NHL.

I don't understand why something Dougie did 4 years ago is relevant. It has no bearing on today. He is slower and out of position more, and being on the PK would only make it even more obvious. Dougie at $5M, sure. Dougie at $9M, no. The team has Casey and Nemec in the pipeline. You move on from your highest paid D when you have someone else who is going to take over for him on PP1 anyway, especially when the your team has a lot of holes with its forward group. Cap management is a thing.

 

[dgibb10]

I don't understand why something Dougie did 4 years ago is relevant. It has no bearing on today. He is slower and out of position more, and being on the PK would only make it even more obvious. Dougie at $5M, sure. Dougie at $9M, no. The team has Casey and Nemec in the pipeline. You move on from your highest paid D when you have someone else who is going to take over for him on PP1 anyway, especially when the your team has a lot of holes with its forward group. Cap management is a thing.

Yes, I am fully aware of NJDs cap situation.

Better aware than I'd say honestly anyone else in here, as has been shown time and again from the significant ignorance that has been shown about how much money we actually have next year, potential rollovers and how to prevent them, etc etc.

NJD needs to save a bit of money to go pricier on the bottom 6. Palat will do.

If you want to move out hamilton to "grab a winger for Jack and Bratt" to make 0 difference (while losing hamilton significantly negatively affects them, you can do that.

They will not both be moved, unless you want to start buying 5 million dollar a year 4th liners to play 12 minutes a night

 

[dgibb10]

Problem is the cap isn’t even the only issue…you just can’t realistically keep all of Dougie, Kovacevic, Nemec AND Casey for ‘two’ RHD slots

You also can’t plan stuff on ‘if’ the cap goes up a few million before it actually does.

Casey is at minimum 26-27 before I even start to worry about clearing a space for him, if you keep him at all and don't move him.



You can absolutely plan for the cap rising 1 year in advance. We'll know what the cap is this offseason, and what the plan/expectation is for next year around the same time. Just like we know what this coming cap will be around.

In fact, NJDs going into this year planned the cap pretty perfectly to fit exactly enough space for a bottom 6 C without dumping anyone after paying luke, in an offseason where the bottom 6 C market is excellent (weird I know). There's a reason we bought the amount of retention on markstrom we did. There's a reason we went after cotter who had 2 years of term at the league minimum.

Luke's extension was always accounted for.

The big extension that has always been expected to push dougie out was NEMEC. and that extension (when it is negotiated) starts in 26-27.

 

[Incharge1976]

Luke and Kovy's contracts were both already accounted for in that calculation at 8.6 mill for luke and 4 mill for Kovy.

Hence why I didn't include 2 dmen as needed to sign.

If you actually knew our cap situation you would know that.

If we keep palat we only need 1 winger, somehow you included 3 to sign, again showing you don't know the situation

Palat,Noesen,Mercer,Grits,Bratt,Cotter,Meier. That is 7/8 wingers accounted for.

This is wrong. We have this following:

1. Meier
2. Hughes
3. Bratt
4. Nico
5. Palat
6. Mercer
7. Noesen
8. Haula
9. Cotter

That's it. These people are UFA's

1. Tatar
2. Bastian
3. Lazar
4. Dowling

You need to sign 3 which includes Gritsyuk, unless you're somehow suggesting we run out Dowling or MacDermid.

We also need a backup goalie if they aren't okay with Daws as backup.

Spotrac has us at $11.45M of cap space next year. Maybe the cap goes to $92.5 next year which gives us another $4.5M or $16M in space. Lets look at it with that.

Luke is going to get around $9M, which will leave you with $7M to get 3 wings and a backup goalie. Of course in this scenario we have no Kovacevic .

The problem with this scenario is it's doing very little to really move the needle with the forward group.

No Dougie means you have $25M if the cap raises. You could sign Luke for $9M, Kovacevic for $4.5M and have $12.5M for 3 forwards and a goalie. I'm not even sure if they move Dougie for a forward or just take picks. I could see a scenario where we get someone with one year left that eats into what we save on Dougie, but it would still work out better.

We need to upgrade Jack's line and get a good 3C. Those two moves will be huge for us and more important then losing 4% on the PP which equals about 8 goals over the course of a season. That's not even taking into account that Luke getting better will fill some of that roll.

Get a winger for Jack and Bratt who can snipe and put that same person on the PP with them.

 

[Peter Sidorkiewicz]

Unless Kovacevic signs a Sigenthaler type contract, I think the team is content to let him walk knowing they have Nemec ready to step in immediately next season.

I also think Huala probably gets traded in the off-season, with Fitzgerald looking to get a 3C upgrade as early as this season at trade deadline.

I don’t think the team entertains trying to move Hamilton unless he has a horrible 2nd half season and playoffs. And there isn’t an immediate urgency because I do think Seamus Casey is a good like for like replacement and he could use another season in AHL.

Palat probably stays another season then with one season left on his contract, that’s when you entertain moving him.

Regarding re-signing Luke. It will happen and I think he would be open to a 2 year bridge contract knowing that the team is in cup contention. I also think there is more opportunity for Luke to make more money and a sign a long term deal in 2 years than it is right now. If Luke wants to sign long term now (this off-season), I don’t think he gets more than $8m per season, knowing that Fitz has to fill out the rest of the roster given the current cap constraints. Whereby if he waits 2 years and he continues to develop into a bonfide two way stud (the defense has been excellent this season but the offense from Luke is not there yet), then he could easily command much more, especially if the cap continues to rise. Dillon would be off-contract by then (replaced by hopefully Silayev) so Luke could take that money on top of his bridge contract (Predicting a bridge worth $6m per season).

 

[britdevil]

Some GM is going to throw the bag at Kovacevic. Being that he's 28 and looking to capitalise, I would not fault him at all if he takes the biggest offer.

Of course there's the chance that he wants to stay here, why wouldn't he... But when we have Nemec and Casey knocking on the door, something has to give.

Moving Dougie just isn't realistic. I think people are seriously underestimating just how hard that contract will be to move.

 

[My3Sons]

Did you know If the cap goes up to 94 mill we can keep together the EXACT same roster we currently have with the only substitutions being Tatar replaced by Gritsyuk, and Allen replaced by Daws.

I'm sure you didn't because again, you don't actually know the situation beyond ideas of "luke need big extension"

Luke's needed a big extension for 2+ years now do you think Fitzgerald just realized that this year?

Does your scenario work if Luke gets $9.5 mil per and Kovacevic gets $4.5 mil per? I don’t see any way Luke gets less than $9 mil and he likely asks for something like $10-$10.5 to open. If Kovacevic gets to the end of thr year with steady play the odd fight and say 25 points he will get closer to $5 mil in my view. Just a guess but you have been consistent saying they can keep thr band together and at what point can’t they?

 

[Its Always Sundstrom]

Just spitballing here to get away from the incessant Dougie talk, I wonder if something around Lenni for Zetterlund works. No in-depth knowledge of SJ farm system and I’m also not necessarily obsessed as some to bring him back, but he does fit the bill as a third line feisty wing with pop in the right age at 25 now. RFA next year with a projection of a $3.75mil raise (Hockey Economics, not sure how legit they are).

I would hate to give up a cheap ELC option, but it’s a move to solidify the bottom 6 for the next few years but also can move up and down the lineup. They get a young wing who can learn the game from Toffoli and a pick.

SJ: Lenni and a 3rd
NJ: Zetts and Nico Sturm or Granlund (maybe this drives up the price to a 2nd?)

If Sturm works out, he’s an UFA and he replaces Lazar or they both comeback at decent prices and replace Bastian? Of course if you acquire them both and want to sign at least Zetts it prioritizes moving Dougie/making space somehow.

 

[ZachaFlockaFlame]

Some GM is going to throw the bag at Kovacevic. Being that he's 28 and looking to capitalise, I would not fault him at all if he takes the biggest offer.

Of course there's the chance that he wants to stay here, why wouldn't he... But when we have Nemec and Casey knocking on the door, something has to give.

Moving Dougie just isn't realistic. I think people are seriously underestimating just how hard that contract will be to move.

I think people are misunderstanding the Hamliton move, you move on from him because he hasn't totally fell off a cliff yet but the signs are obvious there. Some team will pay for Dougie Hamliton thinking they could squeeze some juice out of the player. A team that hasn't hit the cap floor + has a young core they want to improve around would easily do it. Similar to what we did with Subban.

Casey is at minimum 26-27 before I even start to worry about clearing a space for him, if you keep him at all and don't move him.



You can absolutely plan for the cap rising 1 year in advance. We'll know what the cap is this offseason, and what the plan/expectation is for next year around the same time. Just like we know what this coming cap will be around.

In fact, NJDs going into this year planned the cap pretty perfectly to fit exactly enough space for a bottom 6 C without dumping anyone after paying luke, in an offseason where the bottom 6 C market is excellent (weird I know). There's a reason we bought the amount of retention on markstrom we did. There's a reason we went after cotter who had 2 years of term at the league minimum.

Luke's extension was always accounted for.

The big extension that has always been expected to push dougie out was NEMEC. and that extension (when it is negotiated) starts in 26-27.

Teams will never do that after what happened with covid and contenders having to pawn off elite players for cheap like the Islanders did with Devon Toews, for example. The only teams that will even risk that are teams that are contenders right now but won't be in a year or two maybe like a Vegas or the Jets.

 

[Forge]

New Jersey Devils​

Šimon Nemec’s season: After showing promise as a rookie in 2023-24, Nemec — the No. 2 draft pick in 2022 — has spent most of this season in the minors. The Devils beefed up their blue line over the summer, and Nemec got sent down once they were healthy. He has 11 points in 20 games for AHL Utica. There’s not necessarily a reason for long-term concern, but he has also not taken a jump enough to stand out among a crowded group of defensemen.

Biggest disappointment for the devils at the midway point per the athletic

Could be worse

 

[NJDevs26]

Some GM is going to throw the bag at Kovacevic. Being that he's 28 and looking to capitalise, I would not fault him at all if he takes the biggest offer.

Of course there's the chance that he wants to stay here, why wouldn't he... But when we have Nemec and Casey knocking on the door, something has to give.

Moving Dougie just isn't realistic. I think people are seriously underestimating just how hard that contract will be to move.

Subban moved and he had a higher cap hit with a lower performance level in his last pre trade year

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

Biggest disappointment for the devils at the midway point per the athletic

Could be worse

meh

I cant imagine they are watching Utica Comets games enough to make that claim

 

[Forge]

Some GM is going to throw the bag at Kovacevic. Being that he's 28 and looking to capitalise, I would not fault him at all if he takes the biggest offer.

Of course there's the chance that he wants to stay here, why wouldn't he... But when we have Nemec and Casey knocking on the door, something has to give.

Moving Dougie just isn't realistic. I think people are seriously underestimating just how hard that contract will be to move.

The contract may be hard to move because he can only be traded to 10 teams.

I think you're overselling the difficulty of moving it if you think it's the cap hit that is the difficult part to move.

 

[New Jerseys Devil]

A smart and creative GM can find ways around it even if you aren't directly dumping him to SJS or Anaheim or something.

Eg, if he has detroit as a team on his available destinations, swap for Copp, who you can either keep as 3C, or since there are 22 teams you can send HIM to, dump him to one of those teams in a 3 way trade.

Or again, if a team likes palat at 4 mill but not 6, source that retention through a 3rd team. eg if contender C is willing to pay a 2nd for palat at 4 mill, we pay a 2nd to team B, and team B eats 2 mill for 2 years. Not into the specifics but can get creative with ways to dump him


That is a really bad buyout unfortunately.

We only save 3 mill a year in the 2 years he's under contract, which would be what it would cost to replace him anyway. And then you eat 1.5 mill for another 2 years?

I'd rather pay a 1st+ to dump him than buy him out

Wouldnt Fitzgerald rather pay 1.5m for two extra seasons than use something to get rid of Palat? Isnt 1.5m close to extra forward money nowadays? A 1st round pick has to be worth more than that id think!

 

[My3Sons]

The contract may be hard to move because he can only be traded to 10 teams.

I think you're overselling the difficulty of moving it if you think it's the cap hit that is the difficult part to move.

Is it 10 teams he can be moved to or 10 teams he cannot be moved to?

 

[Forge]

Is it 10 teams he can be moved to or 10 teams he cannot be moved to?

10 teams he can be moved to. Same for palat, I think

 

[Normal Devil]

Ryan Graves got moved on by a cup contender Colorado, he was never good to begin with. He was always a transitional 2nd pair dman until Luke was ready. They're not comparable at all.



Siegenthalar has gotten back to his 22-23 form this year, it's clear that last year was the blimp not 22-23.

Pretty clear he was not 100 percent last year .. think he had a broken foot and never quite got right. Seems like he's definitely back this season to where he was a couple seasons ago.

 

[Billdo]

Is it 10 teams he can be moved to or 10 teams he cannot be moved to?

It's almost certainly ten he CANNOT be moved to.

 

[dgibb10]

Wouldnt Fitzgerald rather pay 1.5m for two extra seasons than use something to get rid of Palat? Isnt 1.5m close to extra forward money nowadays? A 1st round pick has to be worth more than that id think!

You save 3 mill in total cap space (1.5 mill a year) from a buyout. Palat is 100% better than a 1.5 mill a year player.

 

[Bleedred]

Earlier in the year I thought the calls for Dougie to be gone after this year were maybe premature and overblown.

Now I don't really think so. We could use the cap space, even if he's still a more than decent player.

I will say this, there was talk that his shot wasn't that threatening earlier this year, which I think I've/we've seen enough of for over 40 games now to agree with that.

He was probably never gonna score over 20 goals here again like he did 2 years ago, but his shot is really ordinary at this point. He's still probably a threat to score more goals than any other defenseman on the team other than maybe Luke (and even he doesn't have many), but the shot doesn't seem to be what it used to be.

 

[Unknown Caller]

Some GM is going to throw the bag at Kovacevic. Being that he's 28 and looking to capitalise, I would not fault him at all if he takes the biggest offer.

Of course there's the chance that he wants to stay here, why wouldn't he... But when we have Nemec and Casey knocking on the door, something has to give.

Moving Dougie just isn't realistic. I think people are seriously underestimating just how hard that contract will be to move.

Wouldn’t be that hard to move Dougie. Still a very productive player offensively and only 31 years old. He could easily be moved to a team that has cap space and is looking to make a jump by upgrading their backend. It would be a lot like the Devils trading for Subban under Shero.

The Devils better be damn sure that they can replace him if they’re moving him though.

 

[Guttersniped]

Wouldnt Fitzgerald rather pay 1.5m for two extra seasons than use something to get rid of Palat? Isnt 1.5m close to extra forward money nowadays? A 1st round pick has to be worth more than that id think!

I think Palat is unmovable with a 10 team trade list and 2 years left, even at 4.5m. Top teams find cheaper and/or better options at wing.

He’s only producing by playing on the top scoring line. If he declines further it could get real ugly and that’s looming over his deal.

I assume we’re stuck with Palat next year and then buy out his last year. That buyout was basically a given the day he signed his deal.

It’s way worse for us if Fitz buys him out this off-season but there’s a chance that happens.

If I’m wrong, and another team saves us from this deal, then great, but it’s very unrealistic to plan for that.

There’s teams that could want what Dougie brings. It’s not an easy deal to find but seems much more realistic.

We don’t have to endlessly debate about it though since it can’t happen until the off-season. (Pretty please lol.)

 

[Bleedred]

Palat has at least looked a little more like what we hoped the 24-25 Palat would look like ever since his personal issue cleared up.

Before that he looked more like what 26-27 Palat will probably look like.

I am skeptical he would be effective if he were playing down a line.