Devils discussion (news, notes and speculation) - part III

[NJDevs26]

Problem is the cap isn’t even the only issue…you just can’t realistically keep all of Dougie, Kovacevic, Nemec AND Casey for ‘two’ RHD slots

You also can’t plan stuff on ‘if’ the cap goes up a few million before it actually does.

 

[BostonDevil]

Palat's play the last 6 weeks does not warrant a guy that needs to be dumped.

I think the problem is that he's playing in the wrong place. He should be on the 3rd line, not with Jack and Bratt.

He may have less points but more impact If he slides down in the lineup

 

[Incharge1976]

Hamilton put up very good results on the PK in Carolina. Problem solved.

If Kovacevic signs the siegs deal you can simply keep them both. Problem solved.

"Also it's f***ing funny that you're defending Dougie this bad but a guy who's been playing out of his skin for the majority of a year who was thought to be a 7D catches flak from you".

I have been saying Kovy has been elite this year all year. But when a guy doesn't have a large sample size of success, yes you keep a close watch for slips especially when discussing shipping out a consistently elite dman and keeping him.

After marino and siegs had disastrous years in 23-24, best believe I am wary of buying into 1 year of defensive success.


Hamilton was an effective PK guy in Carolina.

There is 0 reason to rush Casey into the NHL.

I don't understand why something Dougie did 4 years ago is relevant. It has no bearing on today. He is slower and out of position more, and being on the PK would only make it even more obvious. Dougie at $5M, sure. Dougie at $9M, no. The team has Casey and Nemec in the pipeline. You move on from your highest paid D when you have someone else who is going to take over for him on PP1 anyway, especially when the your team has a lot of holes with its forward group. Cap management is a thing.

 

[dgibb10]

I don't understand why something Dougie did 4 years ago is relevant. It has no bearing on today. He is slower and out of position more, and being on the PK would only make it even more obvious. Dougie at $5M, sure. Dougie at $9M, no. The team has Casey and Nemec in the pipeline. You move on from your highest paid D when you have someone else who is going to take over for him on PP1 anyway, especially when the your team has a lot of holes with its forward group. Cap management is a thing.

Yes, I am fully aware of NJDs cap situation.

Better aware than I'd say honestly anyone else in here, as has been shown time and again from the significant ignorance that has been shown about how much money we actually have next year, potential rollovers and how to prevent them, etc etc.

NJD needs to save a bit of money to go pricier on the bottom 6. Palat will do.

If you want to move out hamilton to "grab a winger for Jack and Bratt" to make 0 difference (while losing hamilton significantly negatively affects them, you can do that.

They will not both be moved, unless you want to start buying 5 million dollar a year 4th liners to play 12 minutes a night

 

[dgibb10]

Problem is the cap isn’t even the only issue…you just can’t realistically keep all of Dougie, Kovacevic, Nemec AND Casey for ‘two’ RHD slots

You also can’t plan stuff on ‘if’ the cap goes up a few million before it actually does.

Casey is at minimum 26-27 before I even start to worry about clearing a space for him, if you keep him at all and don't move him.



You can absolutely plan for the cap rising 1 year in advance. We'll know what the cap is this offseason, and what the plan/expectation is for next year around the same time. Just like we know what this coming cap will be around.

In fact, NJDs going into this year planned the cap pretty perfectly to fit exactly enough space for a bottom 6 C without dumping anyone after paying luke, in an offseason where the bottom 6 C market is excellent (weird I know). There's a reason we bought the amount of retention on markstrom we did. There's a reason we went after cotter who had 2 years of term at the league minimum.

Luke's extension was always accounted for.

The big extension that has always been expected to push dougie out was NEMEC. and that extension (when it is negotiated) starts in 26-27.

 

[Incharge1976]

Luke and Kovy's contracts were both already accounted for in that calculation at 8.6 mill for luke and 4 mill for Kovy.

Hence why I didn't include 2 dmen as needed to sign.

If you actually knew our cap situation you would know that.

If we keep palat we only need 1 winger, somehow you included 3 to sign, again showing you don't know the situation

Palat,Noesen,Mercer,Grits,Bratt,Cotter,Meier. That is 7/8 wingers accounted for.

This is wrong. We have this following:

1. Meier
2. Hughes
3. Bratt
4. Nico
5. Palat
6. Mercer
7. Noesen
8. Haula
9. Cotter

That's it. These people are UFA's

1. Tatar
2. Bastian
3. Lazar
4. Dowling

You need to sign 3 which includes Gritsyuk, unless you're somehow suggesting we run out Dowling or MacDermid.

We also need a backup goalie if they aren't okay with Daws as backup.

Spotrac has us at $11.45M of cap space next year. Maybe the cap goes to $92.5 next year which gives us another $4.5M or $16M in space. Lets look at it with that.

Luke is going to get around $9M, which will leave you with $7M to get 3 wings and a backup goalie. Of course in this scenario we have no Kovacevic .

The problem with this scenario is it's doing very little to really move the needle with the forward group.

No Dougie means you have $25M if the cap raises. You could sign Luke for $9M, Kovacevic for $4.5M and have $12.5M for 3 forwards and a goalie. I'm not even sure if they move Dougie for a forward or just take picks. I could see a scenario where we get someone with one year left that eats into what we save on Dougie, but it would still work out better.

We need to upgrade Jack's line and get a good 3C. Those two moves will be huge for us and more important then losing 4% on the PP which equals about 8 goals over the course of a season. That's not even taking into account that Luke getting better will fill some of that roll.

Get a winger for Jack and Bratt who can snipe and put that same person on the PP with them.

 

[Peter Sidorkiewicz]

Unless Kovacevic signs a Sigenthaler type contract, I think the team is content to let him walk knowing they have Nemec ready to step in immediately next season.

I also think Huala probably gets traded in the off-season, with Fitzgerald looking to get a 3C upgrade as early as this season at trade deadline.

I don’t think the team entertains trying to move Hamilton unless he has a horrible 2nd half season and playoffs. And there isn’t an immediate urgency because I do think Seamus Casey is a good like for like replacement and he could use another season in AHL.

Palat probably stays another season then with one season left on his contract, that’s when you entertain moving him.

Regarding re-signing Luke. It will happen and I think he would be open to a 2 year bridge contract knowing that the team is in cup contention. I also think there is more opportunity for Luke to make more money and a sign a long term deal in 2 years than it is right now. If Luke wants to sign long term now (this off-season), I don’t think he gets more than $8m per season, knowing that Fitz has to fill out the rest of the roster given the current cap constraints. Whereby if he waits 2 years and he continues to develop into a bonfide two way stud (the defense has been excellent this season but the offense from Luke is not there yet), then he could easily command much more, especially if the cap continues to rise. Dillon would be off-contract by then (replaced by hopefully Silayev) so Luke could take that money on top of his bridge contract (Predicting a bridge worth $6m per season).

 

[britdevil]

Some GM is going to throw the bag at Kovacevic. Being that he's 28 and looking to capitalise, I would not fault him at all if he takes the biggest offer.

Of course there's the chance that he wants to stay here, why wouldn't he... But when we have Nemec and Casey knocking on the door, something has to give.

Moving Dougie just isn't realistic. I think people are seriously underestimating just how hard that contract will be to move.