Devils discussion (news, notes and speculation) - part III

[dgibb10]

Not trading Hamliton while having 2 ELC RD's waiting in the wings while having other needs than 3RD playing heavily sheltered offensive minutes is how you ruin a Cup window. I love Dougie for being the first guy in the league to pick this core and put us back in the map in the eyes of free agents and players but every other good team would trade him this offseason.



Their powerplay also sucks so it would be another fit in that regard.

Making rash decisions based on small sample sizes (such as the decision to replace Dougie with Kovacevic and giving Kovacevic a very large contract based on half a season) can also ruin a cup window.

Worst case scenario with Hamilton he makes just 3 million dollars a year in real money his final 2 years, making him very easy to move.

People have been too busy hating on dougie to notice, but Kovy has been a LOT worse lately than he was to start the year.

 

[MasterofGrond]

I’m a Dougie supporter. Always have been.

I’d move him in the right deal. I’d keep him in the right situation. Context is everything.

But people really should stop ragging on him as dead weight, or a net negative, or a third pairing defenseman. If you think he should be moved, fine, it definitely might make sense to do so, but it undermines your argument when you’re just incorrect about what he is and does for the team. Moving him is a tradeoff, and should be recognized as such.

Post what you want, of course, I can’t make anybody not be stupid on the internet.

 

[Emperoreddy]

Dougie has a place on this team right now, but we need the cap space next year. Especially if the plan is to keep Kovy, and we do need to open a roster spot for one of the two stud RDs we have in Utica right now.

It's simply a numbers game at that point and cost controlled young players have way more value then an aging guy on a big contract.

We need cap space for Luke's extension, to pay Kovy, and to try and deepen the forward group.

Ideally you do that by getting Dougie and Palat off the team. Maybe try to get a few more bucks by tossing Mac or Haula overboard too.

Trading Nemec or Casey and keeping Dougie doesn't accomplish any of those things.

 

[Emperoreddy]

I don't get the need to constantly harp on it now though. This is an offseason discussion. Dougie isn't being traded in season

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

Not a single devil is above 3% in relative xGF% this year. Does that mean none of them have played elite this year?

Using relative numbers heavily punishes players who are key parts of elite units (such as NJDs DCore), and heavily rewards guys for situations where it is 1 good pairing or 1 good line and then dogshit.

NJD has 3 pairs all performing at an elite level this year.

Dougie is at 55% this year. He was at 55% last year. He was at 55% the year before that.

His relative numbers were -1% in 22-23, 5% in 23-24, and now -1% again this year.

Was he suddenly WAY better in 23-24? GOD no. The dmen he was being compared to were just significantly worse.


Unless you're claiming we have this all world forward group carrying the dmen (while somehow still claiming the forward group is in desperate need of upgrade)?

Sounds like you could plug in a talented young dman into this system and get good results. I’d like to do that and spend that money elsewhere.

 

[dgibb10]

Sounds like you could plug in a talented young dman into this system and get good results. I’d like to do that and spend that money elsewhere.

Those talented young dmen were plugged into this system to start the year. They had expected goal marks somewhere between 15-20% below dougie.

Crediting it to "the system" and acting like you can just plug anyone in is not only disrespectful to Hamilton, it also disrespects how good Siegs has been this year, how good Kovy has been this, and how good Luke and Pesce have been.

 

[Camille the Eel]

I just wish Hamilton would start to score again. It seems like ages since he’s scored a goal. And generally it feels - both now and in our record year in 22-23 - like “as goes Dougie so goes our offense.” When he’s scoring regularly the whole offensive machine is humming along and when he’s in a drought we also tend to be as a team.

I have no stats to prove this. It’s just an impression.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

Those talented young dmen were plugged into this system to start the year. They had expected goal marks somewhere between 15-20% below dougie.

Crediting it to "the system" and acting like you can just plug anyone in is not only disrespectful to Hamilton, it also disrespects how good Siegs has been this year, how good Kovy has been this, and how good Luke and Pesce have been.

Doesn’t matter at all. Not even a little bit. Nemec wasn’t right after his injury and was playing with a right handed rookie. And it’s a comically small sample. There’s a larger sample of Nemec being good on a crappy team.

You keep trying to do these gotchas and pretending I haven’t actually thought about this. I have. Not a close call — you move him if you can next year.

 

[dgibb10]

We need cap space for Luke's extension, to pay Kovy, and to try and deepen the forward group.

Ideally you do that by getting Dougie and Palat off the team. Maybe try to get a few more bucks by tossing Mac or Haula overboard too.

This makes me think you don't know how much cap space we actually have.

If you move out Dougie, Palat, MacDermid and Haula. you would have 22 million dollars in cap space and these roster positions to fill:

-Backup goalie (replace Allen)
-Healthy Scratch 1 (replace MacDermid)
-Healthy Scratch 2 (replace Dowling)
-Healthy Scratch 3 (replace DeSimone)
-4LW (replace Tatar)
-4C (replace Lazar)
-4RW (replace Bastian)
-3C (replace Haula)

22 mill to try and fill out depth is entirely unneeded.

 

[NJDevs26]

The fact Nemec struggled when he first got to Utica then has gotten going again actually leads more credence to the shoulder hindering him early in the year as opposed to ‘not fitting the system’

 

[dgibb10]

Doesn’t matter at all. Not even a little bit. Nemec wasn’t right after his injury and was playing with a right handed rookie. And it’s a comically small sample. There’s a larger sample of Nemec being good on a crappy team.

You keep trying to do these gotchas and pretending I haven’t actually thought about this. I have. Not a close call — you move him if you can next year.

Meanwhile dougie hamilton will get 0 leeway for his slow start with a new partner, new system, coming back from a major injury.

 

[dgibb10]

The fact Nemec struggled when he first got to Utica then has gotten going again actually leads more credence to the shoulder hindering him early in the year as opposed to ‘not fitting the system’

Cough the exact same thing applies to dougie coming back from his injury Cough.

Nobody would tell you this, but since that 5 day break we had in mid november after the VERY packed schedule we had to start the year, Hamilton has allowed just 1.87 goals against/60 5v5. Or that he has the best 5v5 goal differential on the team in that time

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

Meanwhile dougie hamilton will get 0 leeway for his slow start with a new partner, new system, coming back from a major injury.

From who? Dougie has been okay this year. He’s good on the PP and still a valuable player. I don’t want to trade him because I think he stinks. It’s just the right thing to do from a team building standpoint — in my opinion, of course.

 

[NJDevs26]

Cough the exact same thing applies to dougie coming back from his injury Cough.

Nobody would tell you this, but since that 5 day break we had in mid november after the VERY packed schedule we had to start the year, Hamilton has allowed just 1.87 goals against/60 5v5. Or that he has the best 5v5 goal differential on the team in that time

Except Dougie had months to rehab, Nemec was doing it on the fly while playing. And Dougie’s cooled off offensively again compared to a few weeks ago, when he’s not scoring he’s not really a positive tbh. Look I like the guy too but there are actual reasons for wanting to trade him, this just doesn’t need to be a topic till this offseason. Especially since we have to see Kovacevic hold up over the full season before including HIM in any future plans.

 

[dgibb10]

Except Dougie had months to rehab, Nemec was doing it on the fly while playing. And Dougie’s cooled off offensively again compared to a few weeks ago, when he’s not scoring he’s not really a positive tbh. Look I like the guy too but there are actual reasons for wanting to trade him, this just doesn’t need to be a topic till this offseason. Especially since we have to see Kovacevic hold up over the full season before including him in any future plans.

Dougie-Dillon have been our best pairing since christmas

 

[Lou Bloom]

This makes me think you don't know how much cap space we actually have.

If you move out Dougie, Palat, MacDermid and Haula. you would have 22 million dollars in cap space and these roster positions to fill:

-Backup goalie (replace Allen)
-Healthy Scratch 1 (replace MacDermid)
-Healthy Scratch 2 (replace Dowling)
-Healthy Scratch 3 (replace DeSimone)
-4LW (replace Tatar)
-4C (replace Lazar)
-4RW (replace Bastian)
-3C (replace Haula)

22 mill to try and fill out depth is entirely unneeded.

Palat is not going anywhere with his contract. Devils would have to give up at minimum a 1st round pick to move him.

It's not just about filling depth. With cap space flexibility it puts you in a strong position if a talented player becomes available with a higher cap hit. Devils could add a legit top 6 player to push Palat or Noesen down the lineup either in FA or at next year's trade deadline.

Unless you decide to move on from Kovacevic instead (who would be cheaper and is a tougher player to replace internally with his defense and PK value) then you're blocking two of the better RD prospects in the NHL who both should be NHL ready next season.

 

[ZachaFlockaFlame]

Making rash decisions based on small sample sizes (such as the decision to replace Dougie with Kovacevic and giving Kovacevic a very large contract based on half a season) can also ruin a cup window.

Worst case scenario with Hamilton he makes just 3 million dollars a year in real money his final 2 years, making him very easy to move.

People have been too busy hating on dougie to notice, but Kovy has been a LOT worse lately than he was to start the year.

Even if Kovacevic becomes average or plays slightly above average on his new deal, he'll still be worth it, sign him to the Siegs deal and call it a day. He still provides them something Hamliton doesn't which is PK ability and 5v5 defense. Also it's f***ing funny that you're defending Dougie this bad but a guy who's been playing out of his skin for the majority of a year who was thought to be a 7D catches flak from you

Dougie-Dillon have been our best pairing since christmas

This isn't a good thing.....?

 

[Devils731]

 

[dgibb10]

Even if Kovacevic becomes average or plays slightly above average on his new deal, he'll still be worth it, sign him to the Siegs deal and call it a day. He still provides them something Hamliton doesn't which is PK ability and 5v5 defense. Also it's f***ing funny that you're defending Dougie this bad but a guy who's been playing out of his skin for the majority of a year who was thought to be a 7D catches flak from you

Hamilton put up very good results on the PK in Carolina. Problem solved.

If Kovacevic signs the siegs deal you can simply keep them both. Problem solved.

"Also it's f***ing funny that you're defending Dougie this bad but a guy who's been playing out of his skin for the majority of a year who was thought to be a 7D catches flak from you".

I have been saying Kovy has been elite this year all year. But when a guy doesn't have a large sample size of success, yes you keep a close watch for slips especially when discussing shipping out a consistently elite dman and keeping him.

After marino and siegs had disastrous years in 23-24, best believe I am wary of buying into 1 year of defensive success.

Palat is not going anywhere with his contract. Devils would have to give up at minimum a 1st round pick to move him.

It's not just about filling depth. With cap space flexibility it puts you in a strong position if a talented player becomes available with a higher cap hit. Devils could add a legit top 6 player to push Palat or Noesen down the lineup either in FA or at next year's trade deadline.

Unless you decide to move on from Kovacevic instead (who would be cheaper and is a tougher player to replace internally with his defense and PK value) then you're blocking two of the better RD prospects in the NHL who both should be NHL ready next season.

Hamilton was an effective PK guy in Carolina.

There is 0 reason to rush Casey into the NHL.

 

[dgibb10]

This isn't a good thing.....?

Why is it not a good thing that dougie and dillon are winning their minutes by a significant margin since christmas?

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

Hamilton is not a good option for the PK, and definitely won’t be next year or the end of his contract. Massive downgrade from Kovy.

 

[Lou Bloom]

Hamilton was an effective PK guy in Carolina

So you'd rather a 32 year old Dougie play a role he hasn't played in 4 years then trust two of the better RD prospects in the NHL to play a 3rd pairing, PP role that both of their skillsets are suited for at a fraction of the cost?

 

[ZachaFlockaFlame]

Hamliton on the PK at 32 is some shit a Lou Lams team would do.

Also I'd be willing to put top dollar on the fact Slavin or Pesce carried them significantly more on the PK those days than Hamliton ever did.

Hamilton put up very good results on the PK in Carolina. Problem solved.

If Kovacevic signs the siegs deal you can simply keep them both. Problem solved.

"Also it's f***ing funny that you're defending Dougie this bad but a guy who's been playing out of his skin for the majority of a year who was thought to be a 7D catches flak from you".

I have been saying Kovy has been elite this year all year. But when a guy doesn't have a large sample size of success, yes you keep a close watch for slips especially when discussing shipping out a consistently elite dman and keeping him.

After marino and siegs had disastrous years in 23-24, best believe I am wary of buying into 1 year of defensive success.


Hamilton was an effective PK guy in Carolina.

There is 0 reason to rush Casey into the NHL.

Good thing the Devils management doesn't subscribe to this type of thinking based on what they've shown us.

 

[dgibb10]

So you'd rather a 32 year old Dougie play a role he hasn't played in 4 years then trust two of the better RD prospects in the NHL to play a 3rd pairing, PP role that both of their skillsets are suited for at a fraction of the cost?

The drop on the PK going from Kovy to Hamilton is a lot less than the drop of replacing dougie on the PP.

Nemec was very ineffective on the PP last year.

You can also keep Kovy and Hamilton if you want, as has been illustrated countless times.

Hamliton on the PK at 32 is some shit a Lou Lams team would do.

Also I'd be willing to put top dollar on the fact Slavin or Pesce carried them significantly more on the PK those days than Hamliton ever did.

Damn, I wonder if there would be some way to get Brett Pesce onto our PK.

Good thing the Devils management doesn't subscribe to this type of thinking based on what they've shown us.

Yeah and it f***ing bit us in the ass in 23-24 when we trusted siegs and marino to repeat what they did in 22-23 and they shit the f***ing bed.

 

[dgibb10]

Even if Kovacevic becomes average or plays slightly above average on his new deal, he'll still be worth it, sign him to the Siegs deal and call it a day. He still provides them something Hamliton doesn't which is PK ability and 5v5 defense. Also it's f***ing funny that you're defending Dougie this bad but a guy who's been playing out of his skin for the majority of a year who was thought to be a 7D catches flak from you

If you think this is the worst case scenario on Kovacevic I can certainly see why it would be a no brainer to keep him.

If you want to see what the risk of a Kovy deal is, go to pittsburgh.

They still owe Ryan Graves another 18 million dollars after this year (and he had a much larger sample of success)