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Devils discussion (news, notes and speculation) - part II

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I still believe this team can win despite the recent trend, realistically, our D (despite the complaints about Dougie/Dillon - they can be a fine 3rd pair) and G is set.

We just need two decent pieces up front, easier said than done. If there was a comparable young forward that we could add, I'd trade one of Nemec/Casey but those deals are difficult to come by.

No doubt the top 6 addition needs to be someone that can score goals and push Palat or Noesen down, and then another to ensure Haula or Cotter are on the 4th line.
 
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So right now we only have one player who is above 2 pts/60 5v5.

Jack is at 1.87

And I don't think Jack is playing badly, nor Nico at 1.89, nor Timo at 1.92, but these guys all need to figure out how to put the puck in the net at 5v5. We can talk about depth scoring, but we need more from our in their prime, big money players.

Edit: Ouch, Haula now below .99.

Double ouch, .26 in his last 20 games. Just one goal and zero assists.

So we could go with the "puck is just not going in" explanation, and talk about how we are really one of the top teams in the league, but I think too many guys are under performing, both top 6 and bottom 6 alike, for "luck" to be the big issue.
 
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devilsblood said:
So right now we only have one player who is above 2 pts/60 5v5.

Jack is at 1.87

And I don't think Jack is playing badly, nor Nico at 1.89, nor Timo at 1.92, but these guys all need to figure out how to put the puck in the net at 5v5. We can talk about depth scoring, but we need more from our in their prime, big money players.

Edit: Ouch, Haula now below .99.

Double ouch, .26 in his last 20 games. Just one goal and zero assists.

So we could go with the "puck is just not going in" explanation, and talk about how we are really one of the top teams in the league, but I think too many guys are under performing, both top 6 and bottom 6 alike, for "luck" to be the big issue.
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They didn’t suddenly lose their talent. My thought is it’s something systemic.
 
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My3Sons said:
They didn’t suddenly lose their talent. My thought is it’s something systemic.
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We lack scoring depth and Jack is not good at the cycle game - he has to be one of the least physical forwards in the league - seems like instead of competing for puck battles, he tries to let the defender get the puck and goes for the steal but is rarely successful.

Feels like this will likely hold him back from being one of the elites.
 
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devilsblood said:
So right now we only have one player who is above 2 pts/60 5v5.

Jack is at 1.87

And I don't think Jack is playing badly, nor Nico at 1.89, nor Timo at 1.92, but these guys all need to figure out how to put the puck in the net at 5v5. We can talk about depth scoring, but we need more from our in their prime, big money players.

Edit: Ouch, Haula now below .99.

Double ouch, .26 in his last 20 games. Just one goal and zero assists.

So we could go with the "puck is just not going in" explanation, and talk about how we are really one of the top teams in the league, but I think too many guys are under performing, both top 6 and bottom 6 alike, for "luck" to be the big issue.
Click to expand...

Huh, weird, in this instance you don't think luck is the big issue. New development for you, but I'm all for growing and evolving.

Luck is going to overwhelm skill (if given the observed skill level already) over the samples you are talking about.
 
Triumph said:
Huh, weird, in this instance you don't think luck is the big issue. New development for you, but I'm all for growing and evolving.

Luck is going to overwhelm skill (if given the observed skill level already) over the samples you are talking about.
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42 games?
 
My3Sons said:
They didn’t suddenly lose their talent. My thought is it’s something systemic.
Click to expand...
System is definitely part of the "issue". Now we don't need Jack at 2.8 pts/60 like he was a couple years ago under the high tempo stylings of Lindy Ruff, but there does need to be a happy medium.

And although I was pushing back against it, Palat is a drag on the top line. Yes he does some dirty work, and he has put some pucks in the net, but he misses on these bang-bang golden oppurtunities seemingly every other game.

Haula too, and if he were centering a lock down heavy defensive minutes then you can live with his lack of production, but he's playing mid difficulty minutes to very meh results.
 
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devilsblood said:
System is definitely part of the "issue". Now we don't need Jack at 2.8 pts/60 like he was a couple years ago under the high tempo stylings of Lindy Ruff, but there does need to be a happy medium.

And although I was pushing back against it, Palat is a drag on the top line. Yes he does some dirty work, and he has put some pucks in the net, but he misses on these bang-bang golden oppurtunities seemingly every other game.

Haula too, and if he were centering a lock down heavy defensive minutes then you can live with his lack of production, but he's playing mid difficulty minutes to very meh results.
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His 5v5 production might drop also due to the penalty killing stuff he does now, ditto for Bratt. That might be the change I make even though he's been mostly good at it, need Bratt/Jack to focus more on the offense as opposed to the penalty kill where you can find another forward duo to help kill penalties. It's tough because a lot of guys in our top 6 kill for us.

I also did make mention of this last year where we can't have Jack dip under a point per game or get worse offensively because it'll hinder this team's ceiling. I don't think it's happened yet but I can see where the concern is coming from. And yes, Palat is an issue, they can wait for Gritsyuk to come over and he'd be a pretty good hand and glove fit with Jack/Bratt but they still need someone imo in the top 6 regardless this year.
 
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ZachaFlockaFlame said:
His 5v5 production might drop also due to the penalty killing stuff he does now, ditto for Bratt. That might be the change I make even though he's been mostly good at it, need Bratt/Jack to focus more on the offense as opposed to the penalty kill where you can find another forward duo to help kill penalties. It's tough because a lot of guys in our top 6 kill for us.

I also did make mention of this last year where we can't have Jack dip under a point per game or get worse offensively because it'll hinder this team's ceiling. I don't think it's happened yet but I can see where the concern is coming from. And yes, Palat is an issue, they can wait for Gritsyuk to come over and he'd be a pretty good hand and glove fit with Jack/Bratt but they still need someone imo in the top 6 regardless this year.
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Jack plays very little PK though, and some pretty easy minutes when he does. Heck last night when he had those 2 rushes, he didn't seem to try to get back defensively in between chances, he stayed on the other end of the ice.

He has the odd distinction of being the lone NJ fwd more offensive zone starts on the PK then d-zone's.
 
devilsblood said:
42 games?
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Yes. Luck is an enormous component of who wins and loses games in the NHL. Or rather put a different way, luck is indistinguishable from skill at these scales - there could be a skill-based reason why the Devils aren't scoring as much as expected, but we don't have the tools to figure that out. The idea that it 'has to' be skill is not rooted in any sort of evidence, though, and if that is true, skill vacillates wildly and is likely indistinguishable from luck.
 
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Triumph said:
Yes. Luck is an enormous component of who wins and loses games in the NHL. Or rather put a different way, luck is indistinguishable from skill at these scales - there could be a skill-based reason why the Devils aren't scoring as much as expected, but we don't have the tools to figure that out. The idea that it 'has to' be skill is not rooted in any sort of evidence, though, and if that is true, skill vacillates wildly and is likely indistinguishable from luck.
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Who said it has to be skill?
 
devilsblood said:
Who said it has to be skill?
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Okay, I'll play at this game where we just ask an annoying reductive question. If it's not skill, and it isn't luck, what is it? I think you're thinking it's some third thing that's systematic, but I am lumping that in with skill - it is part of the team's overall game plan.
 
Triumph said:
Okay, I'll play at this game where we just ask an annoying reductive question. If it's not skill, and it isn't luck, what is it? I think you're thinking it's some third thing that's systematic, but I am lumping that in with skill - it is part of the team's overall game plan.
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Lumping system in with skill? Sounds odd to me, but yeah, system is clearly a part of this. As is line decisions(also skill?) and other various dynamics (back to back with Carolina followed by playing west coast at odd times).

And then, yeah skill, Palat has missed a bunch of opportunities lately, Haula, another 30 something seems to have lost a step, Tatar gets no shots on goal anymore. Markstrom as a mid 30's guy, although playing fairly well over all can not let that last goal in(this is not a scoring thing obviously but just part of the losing streak).
 
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Looking at what Washington has done to build its roster and I’m somewhat critical of how Fitz has fleshed out NJ’s roster. Too many declining vets on retirement contracts. Pesce is hanging in there and Hamilton is still a productive player of overpaid and Noesen is thriving but Tatar Haula Palat and Allen are seeming to lose their effectiveness rather quickly. Dillon is ok for now but I’m sure he will start to fade during his contract. I’d rather be adding younger reclamation projects to bolster the lineup - like Cotter who is flawed but offers more to my eyes than Palat or Tatar - rather than just grab another slow older player. Hopefully the team can send Palat out in the offseason without having to retain or give up too much of a sweetener. I think the need to do this shows that NJ did not maximize its drafting when they were in thr main part of rebuilding. The older guys will play better at times during the rest of the season and at some point shots will go in for NJ and everything will look better but right now it’s frustrating.
 
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I agree - Tatar, Haula, Palat, Allen, and even Dillon are below-par pieces on this team.

Mercer is a puzzle - he's stalled and even regressed. Seems slower, less confident, and thus less effective than he should be, but it COULD be a lack of good linemates. I still think he'd get equal value in a trade where two strong pieces that just don't fit on their current rosters could be moved, but I'd like to address the rest first.

Pesce is excellent. He's the reason for Luke's growth IMO. Hamilton is still one of the best offensive D - albeit a slow guy - and he's looking far worse because Dillon, who is just as slow, is his partner. And Dillon has to be his partner because Siegenthaler-Kovasevic and Hughes-Pesce are so good.

We needed to play harder and hit more and be less able to be pushed around, so swapping Dillon out with Casey or Nemec or even Misyul might not work, plus those kids aren't 100% ready yet.

When you can look at your honest assessment, the problems are across the lineup but for sure heavily weighted in the lower lines. We also don't have a very strong rotate-in guy that can play bottom six.

PALAT-Hughes-Bratt
Meier-Hischier-Noesen
Cotter**-HAULA-Mercer*
TATAR-Lazar-Bastian

Hughes-Pesce
Siegenthaler-Kovasevic
Hamilton-DILLON

Markstrom
ALLEN

* - weird that a young guy not too long ago thought to be near-core is struggling
** - a guy who would be exceptional in a 4th line role is sporadic in a third line role.

There are a lot of holes on this team. We have very little in the way of NHL-ready or near-ready prospects at forward in the AHL. Beckman is scoring but apparently doesn't play defense well. Hardman and Halonen grind and work hard but maybe don't have the hands or fast enough brain to contribute, but maybe they'd be fine on the 4th line.

The defense has a lot of prospects even in the AHL (when not injured) - Hatakka has NHL experience and played credibly, but cannot stay healthy. Casey needs strength, Nemec needs to get his head together. Misyul seems okay, and Vilen seems to be struggling a little from where I'd hoped he'd be right now. Still, that's 5 guys that could either play or get here soon, but are any of them a good pairing for Dougie Hamilton with respect to providing speed/mobility and defensive backing for Dougie when he pinches, while still having some physicality? Looks like no, but maybe Misyul?

I know we have guys overseas and in college/juniors that are promising but none of them will help us this season. Gritsyuk, Hameenaho seem to be the best F options. Squires and Melovsky too, perhaps. Filmon has flamed out joining Stillman and Foote. Malek and Yegorov and Louhivaara all have strong potential in goal beyond Daws. Silayev is obviously a major prospect at D, along with Orlov and Karpovich being contenders for a future role.

We have a number of draft picks after the first rounder this year which is Calgary's. 5 in the second and third rounds. You'd have to think we make some moves with some of these guys and some of the draft picks for players under 27 who can be held onto for a while.
 
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