Devils discussion (news, notes and speculation) - part II

[Bleedred]

Today is a must win

Like the thread on the mainboard is titled

“The San Jose Sharks are horror-bad”.

 

[My3Sons]

Today is a must win

Like the thread on the mainboard is titled

“The San Jose Sharks are horror-bad”.

Well since Blackwood has been traded they have a chance against Georgiev.

 

[Bleedred]

Well since Blackwood has been traded they have a chance against Georgiev.

I bet it’s Askarov.

 

[Lou Bloom]

The notion that Dougie can be replaced with anything in our pipeline seems extremely absurd to me ...or at the very least, highly premature.

You think it's ridiculous to expect a former #2 Overall pick and former elite college defenseman currently putting up near PPG in his rookie season in the AHL to be able to replace a 3rd pairing PPQB role?

It's not even about them completely replacing Hamilton, It's about the difference in cap space between $9M vs $925K and being able to spread the cap savings to improve other areas on the team.

Carolina themselves lost Dougie and have been able to acquire players like DeAngelo, Ghost and Burns with 34% retention for little value and haven't missed a beat.

 

[Clam Jensen]

I’m currently at the rock but instead of watching the devils I’m watching frozen and encanto on ice. Honestly, more entertaining than the devils the last few games!

 

[Nubmer6]

I’m currently at the rock but instead of watching the devils I’m watching frozen and encanto on ice.

Isn't that the same thing?

 

[ZachaFlockaFlame]

They are not looking for Hamilton-type players which is the whole reason we have him to begin with. When he was a UFA, there were no real other bidders on Hamilton other than us and Carolina. His reputation around the league is considerably worse than his play. Most teams are already paying somebody a lot of money to be their PP1 guy. Like, if Seattle hadn't gone all out for Montour this offseason, maybe they're interested, if Utah hadn't paid a ton for Sergachev, maybe they're interested. But those two teams did do those things and so they're almost certainly out on Hamilton.

It just goes to show that it is far better to be deeper at forward than defense, there's more forward positions and excess centers can be converted to wing pretty easily. I'm glad that the Devils shouldn't have to make any external additions on defense for several years, but they're still in a rough spot with the value of all of these players - there's no way to 'win' the situation they have right now.

This is ignoring the flat cap coming out of covid, teams that are usually big spenders in UFA already used their cap elsewhere + tied up themselves up in big UFA deals elsewhere that summer. That's why the Devils were able to get him + set themselves up for Gaudreau in the following summer, they enticed Dougie on being on a young core + being paid + no one else in the league truly had the money to offer him that he was looking for in UFA.

And of course, the Devils aren't going to win a Dougie Hamliton trade with how bloated his deal is but you understand that going into it.

 

[JimEIV]

You think it's ridiculous to expect a former #2 Overall pick and former elite college defenseman currently putting up near PPG in his rookie season in the AHL to be able to replace a 3rd pairing PPQB role?

Yes. I think it is absolutely absurd to think either of those two players are capable of 20+ minutes every night for the duration of a full season.... without a significant dip in the quality of the defense.

 

[ZachaFlockaFlame]

Of course it's not 1 to 1. It's ask more of 5 to downgrade 1.

The problem usually is some of the 5 can't absorb the downgrade... there's chemistry, situations, some like Dillon and Kovacevic may already be at capacity...then you are going to ask them to do more....then the defense suffers.

The defense suffers if Kovacevic takes a step back + Nemec/Casey aren't ready for the most sheltered role on the team. Fitz isn't stupid, if he made those proactive moves before to ensure the defense doesn't falter, he'll do it even after trading Hamliton. I'm fine with re-signing Kovacevic/giving one of the kids the 3RD and using the money elsewhere on this roster. Only way trading Hamliton becomes an issue is if they don't use the cap space correctly or don't use it all.

Yes. I think it is absolutely absurd to think either of those two players are capable of 20+ minutes every night for the duration of a full season.... without a significant dip in the quality of the defense.

The ironic part being the more Hamliton has played this year, the worse he's looked

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

Yes. I think it is absolutely absurd to think either of those two players are capable of 20+ minutes every night for the duration of a full season.... without a significant dip in the quality of the defense.

None of that would be necessary. We’d need 15-16 minutes from a replacement at even strength. Luckily we’ve literally seen one of the guys do that already as a child. And it wouldn’t be remotely shocking if said player was great next year. Remember that time Luke Hughes went from kinda lost defensively to Scott Niedermayer in 1 year?

We have ridiculous depth on defense and couldn’t possibly be better positioned to handle his departure.

Edit: just had to check. Nemec played 16:56 a game at 5 on 5. 49 GF 47 GA 52.3 xGF%. Dougie is playing 15:43. 34 GF 34 GA 53.9 xGF%.

 

[Oneiro]

50 pt d-man in exchange for 100 pts elsewhere is pretty much how I look at it - that is if Fitz does better than he did with Haula and Palat, which is a big if.

I like Casey and think there's no need to be skeptical of him, long term. One, Dillon isn't even very good anymore and probably needs to be sheltered anyway - he's a natural partner for an undersized playmaking D. Two, the other two pairings are so f***ing good that you can probably not even skip a beat. Luke is going to go back to 21:00 a night anyway.

 

[forceten]

I will say that Nemec+Casey as a pair wasn't really fair to either of them.

 

[Lou Bloom]

Yes. I think it is absolutely absurd to think either of those two players are capable of 20+ minutes every night for the duration of a full season.... without a significant dip in the quality of the defense.

You do realize that all of the current best defenseman in the league were at one point rookies right? Do you not think Casey or Nemec are capable of playing a bottom pairing, offensive minded role next to Dillon?

The NHL is a salary cap league, teams are forced to go cheap in certain areas in order to maximize efficient use of their cap space. And you don't see the logic that spending $9M on a player currently playing 3rd pairing is a bad use of cap space when you have internal options for cheap to replace him?

Just to put it into perspective if the Devils didn't have Hamilton and he was a UFA going into the offseason, do you really think the Devils would look at a defense with Luke, Pesce, Siegs, Kovacevic, Dillon, Nemec and Casey and come to the conclusion that the best course of action was to spend $9M for Hamilton in the offseason?

 

[JimEIV]

None of that would be necessary. We’d need 15-16 minutes from a replacement at even strength. Luckily we’ve literally seen one of the guys do that already as a child. And it wouldn’t be remotely shocking if said player was great next year. Remember that time Luke Hughes went from kinda lost defensively to Scott Niedermayer in 1 year?

We have ridiculous depth on defense and couldn’t possibly be better positioned to handle his departure.

We don't have ridiculous depth on defense. I'm not claiming it's bad, it's good..but our left side is fragile.

I told you last year how far ahead Luke was of Nemec and everyone here scoffed...but Luke has that natural skating ability that was always going to allow for progression and usefulness that other two could only dream of.

Dougie is at very low point which makes sense after missing an entire season and is still playing 16:37 at even strength. He averaging over 20 a game. So it's not "just" 15/16 minutes...He also doesn't need to be babysat like Nemec and Casey would...that also means their partners become ultra critical as much as their usage and pairings become much more inflexible because those players would need consideration.

There is always a trickle down effect to using young inexperienced defenders that requires work arounds and limited deployment...and those work arounds put heavier loads on other defensemen.

 

[Oneiro]

I'd add there's really no point in discussing the cap with someone who has never shown it much consideration in his arguments.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

We don't have ridiculous depth on defense. I'm not claiming it's bad, it's good..but our left side is fragile.

I told you last year how far ahead Luke was of Nemec and everyone here scoffed...but Luke has that natural skating ability that was always going to allow for progression and usefulness that other two could only dream of.

Dougie is at very low point which makes sense after missing an entire season and is still playing 16:37 at even strength. He averaging over 20 a game. So it's not "just" 15/16 minutes...He also doesn't need to be babysat like Nemec and Casey would...that also means their partners become ultra critical as much as their usage and pairings become much more inflexible because those players would need consideration.

There is always a trickle down effect to using young inexperienced defenders that requires work arounds and limited deployment...and those work arounds put heavier loads on other defensemen.

Too much wrong to respond to so I won’t.

 

[JimEIV]

You do realize that all of the current best defenseman in the league were at one point rookies right? Do you not think Casey or Nemec are capable of playing a bottom pairing, offensive minded role next to Dillon?

The NHL is a salary cap league, teams are forced to go cheap in certain areas in order to maximize efficient use of their cap space. And you don't see the logic that spending $9M on a player currently playing 3rd pairing is a bad use of cap space when you have internal options for cheap to replace him?

Just to put it into perspective if the Devils didn't have Hamilton and he was a UFA going into the offseason, do you really think the Devils would look at a defense with Luke, Pesce, Siegs, Kovacevic, Dillon, Nemec and Casey and come to the conclusion that the best course of action was to spend $9M for Hamilton in the offseason?

I'd be looking to rid myself of Palat before I would be looking to tinker with the defensive unit.

You all saw how devastating losing Severson and Graves was. We don't need to make the same mistake again.

 

[Triumph]

This is ignoring the flat cap coming out of covid, teams that are usually big spenders in UFA already used their cap elsewhere + tied up themselves up in big UFA deals elsewhere that summer. That's why the Devils were able to get him + set themselves up for Gaudreau in the following summer, they enticed Dougie on being on a young core + being paid + no one else in the league truly had the money to offer him that he was looking for in UFA.

And of course, the Devils aren't going to win a Dougie Hamliton trade with how bloated his deal is but you understand that going into it.

That's the point, though - Chicago could've made a big offer for Hamilton, they chose to trade for Seth Jones. Philadelphia could've made a big offer for Hamilton - they chose Rasmus Ristolainen. Granted both of the GMs who did this are no longer working for those teams, but not only was nobody making room for Dougie, teams who would theoretically be interested in a high scoring RHD pursued other avenues.

 

[Lou Bloom]

I'd be looking to rid myself of Palat before I would be looking to tinker with the defensive unit.

You all saw how devastating losing Severson and Graves was. We don't need to make the same mistake again.

Teams aren't going to take Palat without a large incentive to do so. The Devils also don't have any forward depth so paying a team to take Palat opens up another hole in the forward group and loses you valuable assets that could be used to acquire a player.

You don't even have a counter argument about how paying $9M for a 3rd pairing defenseman isn't a poor use of assets. You just claim you don't want to tinker with the defensive unit as if the salary cap doesn't exist.

If Hamilton was as valuable and irreplaceable as you claim then why did Carolina let him go? And why did Carolina finish with 116 points the following season?

 

[JimEIV]

Teams aren't going to take Palat without a large incentive to do so. The Devils also don't have any forward depth so paying a team to take Palat opens up another hole in the forward group and loses you valuable assets that could be used to acquire a player.

You don't even have a counter argument about how paying $9M for a 3rd pairing defenseman isn't a poor use of assets. You just claim you don't want to tinker with the defensive unit as if the salary cap doesn't exist.

If Hamilton was as valuable and irreplaceable as you claim then why did Carolina let him go? And why did Carolina finish with 116 points the following season?

I seriously don't how in the world anyone could be concerned about the cap situation and/or spending and not talk about about the 11 million being spent on Palat ,Tatar and Haula....they are absolute garbage.

We don't have a reasonable replacement for an 18 minute a night, every night defenseman and one on the open market would cost 5 million.

I think your budgeting priorities are just off. Defense isn't where the fat needs to be cut.

 

[NJDfan86]

Dougie is a useful player still, the Devils will just need to retain when they decide to move on.

Don’t see what all the hand wringing is about since there is no chance he is moving during the season.

 

[NJDfan86]

I seriously don't how in the world anyone could be concerned about the cap situation and/or spending and not talk about about the 11 million being spent on Palat ,Tatar and Haula....they are absolute garbage.

We don't have a reasonable replacement for an 18 minute a night, every night defenseman and one on the open market would cost 5 million.

I think your budgeting priorities are just off. Defense isn't where the fat needs to be cut.

The Devils already have his replacement power play minutes which is why everyone keeps using 5v5 time FYI.

At a certain point we don’t want Dougie keeping those minutes from Luke anyway, and that point appears to be closer than expected.

 

[Devils731]

Teams aren't going to take Palat without a large incentive to do so. The Devils also don't have any forward depth so paying a team to take Palat opens up another hole in the forward group and loses you valuable assets that could be used to acquire a player.

You don't even have a counter argument about how paying $9M for a 3rd pairing defenseman isn't a poor use of assets. You just claim you don't want to tinker with the defensive unit as if the salary cap doesn't exist.

If Hamilton was as valuable and irreplaceable as you claim then why did Carolina let him go? And why did Carolina finish with 116 points the following season?

It still feels really disingenuous to keep calling Hamilton a 3rd liner.

It keeps being used to imply, “guy that isn’t that important to the team” but he gets the 2nd most minutes of all the defenseman on the team in all situations.

Hamilton isn’t the 5th or 6th best defenseman on the team but the way the pairing synergies are working, the team makeup works best with him being paired with the worst defenseman.

I believe it may make sense to move Hamilton but the arguments that either outright say or imply that Hamilton isn’t one of the better defenders on the team come from a place of trying to win an argument rather than being reasonable.

 

[Lou Bloom]

I seriously don't how in the world anyone could be concerned about the cap situation and/or spending and not talk about about the 11 million being spent on Palat ,Tatar and Haula....they are absolute garbage.

We don't have a reasonable replacement for an 18 minute a night, every night defenseman and one on the open market would cost 5 million.

I think your budgeting priorities are just off. Defense isn't where the fat needs to be cut.

Who doesn't bring up that Palat and Haula are overpaid? Tatar's barely above league min and is a UFA this offseason, he doesn't even factor into next year's cap.

Of course we have a reasonable replacement, we have the 2nd overall pick that just played 20 minutes a night last season and the former elite college defenseman that's putting up near PPG in his rookie season on a terrible AHL team. The Wild made the playoffs with Brock Faber playing 25 minutes a night in his rookie season but you think it's unreasonable to play Nemec or Casey 18 minutes?

 

[Lou Bloom]

It still feels really disingenuous to keep calling Hamilton a 3rd liner.

It keeps being used to imply, “guy that isn’t that important to the team” but he gets the 2nd most minutes of all the defenseman on the team in all situations.

Hamilton isn’t the 5th or 6th best defenseman on the team but the way the pairing synergies are working, the team makeup works best with him being paired with the worst defenseman.

I believe it may make sense to move Hamilton but the arguments that either outright say or imply that Hamilton isn’t one of the better defenders on the team come from a place of trying to win an argument rather than being reasonable.

But the Devils have options to replace Hamilton on the PP1 with Luke and Nemec/Casey. And with the top 4 set with Luke-Pesce and Siengthaler-Kovacevic (If re-signed) then you're just looking for a player to fill in as a 3rd pairing, PP 1/2 option. Saying his role is a 3rd paring PP QB isn't to dismiss the quality of the player it's to showcase that the Devils don't need to be paying $9M to fill that role.

Carolina was able to replace him with Tony DeAngelo, Brent Burns with retained salary and Ghost. If one of the best organizations in the NHL thought replacing Hamilton for cheap was the best option then why four years later when his game has declined a bit is it crazy to imply that the Devils would be better off going cheaper in such a role and using that cap space to improve other areas?