Devils discussion (news, notes and speculation) - part II

[dgibb10]

He makes 9M a year, WHO GIVES A f***? Why do you treat Dougie as some sort of make a wish kid? He should be doing that in general, it shouldn't be be some sort of accomplishment or praise that he's doing it

Yes and he does it incredibly.

Hence why, over the last 3 years, the only guys to generate more offense than hamilton are:

the Bouchard-Ekholm pairing
the Pettersson-Karlsson pairing
the Slavin-Burns pairing

Why do you ignore the fact that he generates offense at an utterly ridiculous level.


What more do you want in terms of offensive generation from him?

He helps lead a top 2 PP in hockey.
He generates ridiculously high amounts of offense 5v5.

Be grateful.

 

[ZachaFlockaFlame]

Yes and he does it incredibly.

Hence why, over the last 3 years, the only guys to generate more offense than hamilton are:

the Bouchard-Ekholm pairing
the Pettersson-Karlsson pairing
the Slavin-Burns pairing

Why do you ignore the fact that he generates offense at an utterly ridiculous level.


What more do you want in terms of offensive generation from him?

He helps lead a top 2 PP in hockey.
He generates ridiculously high amounts of offense 5v5.

Be grateful.

Jack Hughes is that PPQB, it goes as he goes. The last few weeks/games have been abysmal from Jack there and the powerplay has suffered because of it. Hamliton is a shot, nothing goes through him. The powerplay had a downfall last year because of Jack's shoulder being out of his socket not because of the Hamliton injury. This isn't 22-23. And once again, cool, he's making 9M. It comes with the territory of that price tag. You still haven't given a solution on what to do with Kovacevic who plays a big defensive role on this team this year + PK's + what to do with Nemec/Casey.

 

[Lou Bloom]

If the forwards carry the offense how come the offense produced so little with dougie hamilton on the bench (until Luke Hughes exploded)?

Dougie pairing generating 35 shots/60. The other pairings not even CLOSE at 25 shots/60

View attachment 955818

Luke and Pesce didn't come back from injury until late October and both took time to settle in. Nemec and Casey pair struggled and Siegenthaler and Kovacevic has been used as a shutdown pairing. Of course that pairing would be the one that was better early in the season offensively in this scenario. That doesn't change the fact that Jack, Bratt and Nico were the ones that were the main offensive play drivers, whereas Josi between 2019-2023 was the main play driver for those Predators teams.

 

[dgibb10]

Luke and Pesce didn't come back from injury until late October and both took time to settle in. Nemec and Casey pair struggled and Siegenthaler and Kovacevic has been used as a shutdown pairing. Of course that pairing would be the one that was better early in the season offensively in this scenario. That doesn't change the fact that Jack, Bratt and Nico were the ones that were the main offensive play drivers, whereas Josi between 2019-2023 was the main play driver for those Predators teams.

Yes, and in that time it was put on DOUGIE to carry the offensive load. And he did so remarkably. And then you complained he was taking too many chances.

And now, when he hasn't been asked to do that as much, his defense has vastly improved as he has not been forced to carry the load. And then you bitched about his points while ignoring how solid he's been defensively the last 20 games.

So no matter what he's been asked to do, he's done it alongside the worst dman on our team.

 

[devilsblood]

I'd say if it weren't for Nemec I'd have no interest in moving Hamiltion, but given Hamilton is currently enjoying such an easy work load, and Casey looks to be such a good PP player, I'd maybe look to clear out Hamilton's contract even if we didn't have Nemec.

That said, I have no issue with Hamilton this season.

 

[devilsblood]

Last 20 games at 5v5 Bratt is averaging just 4.48 shots/60. Shooting over 20% and producing over 3 pts/60, but I don't like that shot rate one bit.

 

[Lou Bloom]

Yes, and in that time it was put on DOUGIE to carry the offensive load. And he did so remarkably. And then you complained he was taking too many chances.

And now, when he hasn't been asked to do that as much, his defense has vastly improved as he has not been forced to carry the load. And then you bitched about his points while ignoring how solid he's been defensively the last 20 games.

So no matter what he's been asked to do, he's done it alongside the worst dman on our team.

How is it carrying the offensive load if Jack, Bratt and Nico are creating the majority of the chances? It's a lot easier to be an offensive threat when the other players around you are actually driving the scoring chances.

I don't think the defense has improved. Hamilton and Dillon is clearly the worst pairing on this team and that's clearly not all on Dillon. There's plenty of times where Hamilton has been out of position leading to odd man rushes and scoring chances against.

He's being paid $9M and is being asked to play a 3rd pairing, PPQB role. If he can't make it work because "he's playing alongside the worst dman on our team" in such a sheltered role than he's not worth $9M.

 

[dgibb10]

Jack Hughes is that PPQB, it goes as he goes. The last few weeks/games have been abysmal from Jack there and the powerplay has suffered because of it. Hamliton is a shot, nothing goes through him. The powerplay had a downfall last year because of Jack's shoulder being out of his socket not because of the Hamliton injury. This isn't 22-23. And once again, cool, he's making 9M. It comes with the territory of that price tag. You still haven't given a solution on what to do with Kovacevic who plays a big defensive role on this team this year + PK's + what to do with Nemec/Casey.

Casey is not currently ready for NHL hockey nor do I expect him to be next year. And if need be I'd trade him.

Nemec can win his job or come in for injuries if we resign Kovacevic.

Dougie's real money hit his final 2 years is around 4 mill AAV, which is when I'd actually look to move him.

If Kovacevic comes in at a price that makes us unable to afford stuff (after dumping palat) then that's not a price I'm particularly comfortable paying a guy for 1 year of play. (See, Marino 22-23, Graves 22-23, Siegs 22-23 and how they all fell off).

Ignoring Dougie's impact on the PP is pathetic. Being the cannon at the back matters. You don't see (at least intelligent) oilers fans shitting all over Evan Bouchard who provides very similar things to hamilton. (especially while preaching about how much Kovacevic means to our PK).

In fact, you don't see anyone really around the league compaining about their star, play driving dmen because they make star, playing driving dman money.

Hamilton is able to PK if need be (carolina used him on a pair of top 5 PKs in his final 2 years there).

This roster is around 88 mill total. Get whatever 3C you like.

How is it carrying the offensive load if Jack, Bratt and Nico are creating the majority of the chances? It's a lot easier to be an offensive threat when the other players around you are actually driving the scoring chances.

I don't think the defense has improved. Hamilton and Dillon is clearly the worst pairing on this team and that's clearly not all on Dillon. There's plenty of times where Hamilton has been out of position leading to odd man rushes and scoring chances against.

He's being paid $9M and is being asked to play a 3rd pairing, PPQB role. If he can't make it work because "he's playing alongside the worst dman on our team" in such a sheltered role than he's not worth $9M.

"3rd pairing" is such a pathetic way to describe it. They find him extra shifts away from Dillon where possible.

Why were the other pairings not generating offense like Dougie? did they forget Jack Bratt and Nico existed?

He plays 21 minutes a night, helps lead an elite PP, and has a near 55% xGoals share 5v5. The other pairings also being good doesn't make that play not elite. He's the same player he was in 23-24, and 22-23, and 21-22.

 

[dgibb10]

How is it carrying the offensive load if Jack, Bratt and Nico are creating the majority of the chances? It's a lot easier to be an offensive threat when the other players around you are actually driving the scoring chances.

I don't think the defense has improved. Hamilton and Dillon is clearly the worst pairing on this team and that's clearly not all on Dillon. There's plenty of times where Hamilton has been out of position leading to odd man rushes and scoring chances against.

He's being paid $9M and is being asked to play a 3rd pairing, PPQB role. If he can't make it work because "he's playing alongside the worst dman on our team" in such a sheltered role than he's not worth $9M.

It objectively has improved he's given up just 2.37 xGA/60 over the last 21 games. And before you bitch about "third pairing" kovacevic has played 1 singular minute more than him 5v5 in that time.

Narratives started early in the year, but he's been better than Kovy for half the year now tbh, and I expect that to continue.

 

[Lou Bloom]

"3rd pairing" is such a pathetic way to describe it. They find him extra shifts away from Dillon where possible.

Why were the other pairings not generating offense like Dougie? did they forget Jack Bratt and Nico existed?

He plays 21 minutes a night, helps lead an elite PP, and has a near 55% xGoals share 5v5. The other pairings also being good doesn't make that play not elite

He plays the 5th most minutes 5v5 on defense, how is it pathetic to to describe reality?

Like I explained before the other pairings included a 20 year old tandem in Casey and Nemec that struggled together, a shutdown pairing in Kovacevic and Siegenthaler and the Luke and Pesce pair which didn't come back till late October and took time to get caught up to NHL speed. Once Luke and Pesce were acclimated they have clearly been the most dangerous offensive pair 5v5 and Luke is clearly superior when it comes to 5v5 offensive play driving vs Dougie.

And Shayne Gostisbehere helps lead a top 5 PP and has a higher xGoals share 5v5 than Dougie. Are we going to start claiming Ghost is worth near $9M now? And that's not to say Ghost is as good as Dougie or that Dougie isn't a good player, the point is that Dougie is expendable and with a logjam defensively and improvements needed at forward depth, he's the obvious candidate to free up salary cap space.

 

[devilsblood]

I have some decent points regarding some of our recent scoring issues, but I feel it's going to be buried under all this Dougie Ham's talk.

Maybe tomorrow.

 

[dgibb10]

He plays the 5th most minutes 5v5 on defense, how is it pathetic to to describe reality?

Like I explained before the other pairings included a 20 year old tandem in Casey and Nemec that struggled together, a shutdown pairing in Kovacevic and Siegenthaler and the Luke and Pesce pair which didn't come back till late October and took time to get caught up to NHL speed. Once Luke and Pesce were acclimated they have clearly been the most dangerous offensive pair 5v5 and Luke is clearly superior when it comes to 5v5 offensive play driving vs Dougie.

And Shayne Gostisbehere helps lead a top 5 PP and has a higher xGoals share 5v5 than Dougie. Are we going to start claiming Ghost is worth near $9M now? And that's not to say Ghost is as good as Dougie or that Dougie isn't a good player, the point is that Dougie is expendable and with a logjam defensively and improvements needed at forward depth, he's the obvious candidate to free up salary cap space.

The Canes have made incredible use of Ghost yes. Other teams have failed to.

It's a pathetic argument because it ignores the reality to twist words. He plays like 5 seconds less a game 5v5 than Kovacevic since we've actually had a healthy squad. And that has to do with his partner, not him. And in terms of overall ice time, he's 2nd in per game, 1st total.

AND ONCE AGAIN, HAVING OTHER ELITE PAIRINGS DOES NOT MAKE HAMILTON ANY WORSE. If it was a top of the line stacked forward group, sure.
But that's not what we have. In fact the consensus here is our forward group ISN'T GOOD ENOUGH.

Ghost is top 20 in the league in xGoals share.

Does he invalidate any of the following high priced dman too who he's also above too, or just Hamilton?

Quinn Hughes
John Carlson
Brent Burns
Miro Heiskanen
Charlie McAvoy
Noah Dobson
Morgan Reilly
Rasmus Dahlin
Devon Toews
Brock Faber
Roman Josi
Zach Werenski
Jake Sanderson
Mikhail Sergachev
Erik Karlsson
MacKenzie Weegar
Aaron Ekblad

I guess teams should ignore elite offensive dman entirely and every team should sign Ghost.

Luke is elite 5v5, once again it does not make Dougie Hamilton's any better or worse.

Dougie Hamilton has elite numbers well worth the 9 mill he makes. End of Story, hard stop.

You don't hear this bullshit about Pietrangelo, Josi, Dahlin, Reilly, Dobson, Burns, Carlson, etc etc. Appreciate your elite dman.

He plays the 5th most minutes 5v5 on defense, how is it pathetic to to describe reality?

Like I explained before the other pairings included a 20 year old tandem in Casey and Nemec that struggled together, a shutdown pairing in Kovacevic and Siegenthaler and the Luke and Pesce pair which didn't come back till late October and took time to get caught up to NHL speed. Once Luke and Pesce were acclimated they have clearly been the most dangerous offensive pair 5v5 and Luke is clearly superior when it comes to 5v5 offensive play driving vs Dougie.

And Shayne Gostisbehere helps lead a top 5 PP and has a higher xGoals share 5v5 than Dougie. Are we going to start claiming Ghost is worth near $9M now? And that's not to say Ghost is as good as Dougie or that Dougie isn't a good player, the point is that Dougie is expendable and with a logjam defensively and improvements needed at forward depth, he's the obvious candidate to free up salary cap space.

The obvious candidate to free up cap space is Palat.

If an actually valuable offer comes in that makes losing an elite PP weapon who also tilts the ice 5v5 worth it, sure. But giving him away, (especially when it would certainly be to a contender), would be foolish

 

[dgibb10]

Our forward group is above average. Not elite, but above average.



Dougie is putting up elite numbers with this forward group and a mediocre partner. This is really good.

Luke-Pesce are dominating. This is also really good.

Kovacevic-Siegs are also dominating. This is also really good.

Grits is coming.

We can reallocate palat/tatar money (8 mill) into better forward depth. 1 mill on grits

7.6 mill raise to luke covered by cap increase and previous overages gone.

3 mill raise to kovy covered by palat+tatar out.

leaving probably around 3 mill to replace tatars roster spot with someone better.

 

[Incharge1976]

AND ONCE AGAIN, HAVING OTHER ELITE PAIRINGS DOES NOT MAKE HAMILTON ANY WORSE.

You are not listening to what people are saying. Dougie has slowed down some (skating) and it will only continue to decline.

When you have an elite top 4 and a pipeline of 3 guys who you are super high on, you move the guy who is making $9M before he completely loses it so you can improve other areas because that guy is not a top 4 guy anymore and is mostly a PP specialist.

No one cares what he did in 2021. No one even cares about this year because of his NTC anyway. We are talking about next year, or two years from now.

The entire idea of having a pipeline is to fill in younger players for older players and moving on right when they value starts to drop. Dougie is not worth $9M right now, and he probably will never be again.

I would be all for keeping Dougie if:

1. Dougie hadn't lost some speed.
2. Luke was a bust.
3. Our pipeline was bare.
4. The cap didn't exist.
5. We were in a different development phase and not trying to fill in two more lines to win a Cup

We live in a cap world and need to build a roster, not talk about 3 years ago.

 

[dgibb10]

You are not listening to what people are saying. Dougie has slowed down some (skating) and it will only continue to decline.

When you have an elite top 4 and a pipeline of 3 guys who you are super high on, you move the guy who is making $9M before he completely loses it so you can improve other areas because that guy is not a top 4 guy anymore and is mostly a PPQB.

No one cares what he did in 2021. No one even cares about this year because of his NTC anyway. We are talking about next year, or two years from now.

The entire idea of having a pipeline is to fill in younger players for older players and moving on right when they value starts to drop, and Dougie is not worth $9M right now.

I would be all for keeping Dougie if:

1. Dougie hadn't lost some speed.
2. Luke was a bust.
3. Our pipeline was bare.
4. The cap didn't exist.
5. We were in a different development phase and not trying to fill in two more lines to win a Cup

We live in a cap world and need to build a roster, not talk about 3 years ago.

"and Dougie is not worth $9M right now."

Except he is and more, and that's where you are all going wrong.

I am fully on board with moving out hamilton at fair value, I have even proposed it on multiple occasions.

I've also proposed moving out Kovy if the price there is right, and moving out Casey if the price there is right.



But the problem is many here are suggesting giving away an elite defenseman for nothing. Especially one with a real money cost of just 4.5 mill a year for his final 3 years.

Many here are ignoring the significant impact he has on our PP.
Many here are ignoring the fact that he is STILL producing and tilting the ice 5v5.
Many here are ignoring the significant risk Kovacevic poses if you pay him significant money and term for 1 good year.


"you move the guy who is making $9M before he completely loses it so you can improve other areas because that guy is not a top 4 guy anymore and is mostly a PPQB."

To claim he's not a top 4 caliber dman is detached from reality. He's a top pairing caliber dman, on a team where all of our dmen except dillon are playing lights out hockey.

There are 12 RHD in the entire league with a better xgoals share than him 5v5 this year.

As you stated, our forward group isn't that elite, needs upgrades. So perhaps the dman who is producing elite results is elite.

 

[Smitty426]

Our forward group is above average. Not elite, but above average.



Dougie is putting up elite numbers with this forward group and a mediocre partner. This is really good.

Luke-Pesce are dominating. This is also really good.

Kovacevic-Siegs are also dominating. This is also really good.

Grits is coming.

We can reallocate palat/tatar money (8 mill) into better forward depth. 1 mill on grits

7.6 mill raise to luke covered by cap increase and previous overages gone.

3 mill raise to kovy covered by palat+tatar out.

leaving probably around 3 mill to replace tatars roster spot with someone better.

Gibb Any chance Ross Colton gets let go by Avs? He's always been a hope for me. Landy coming back makes this the only way imo

 

[NjdevilfanJim]

Hi friends! There was an article about your GM at the Sharks game yesterday and we were debating who he might be scouting. Granlund? Sturm/Kunin? Zetterlund?

What do you think? Also, is there any world where Nemec is expendable and if so, what can you see it taking to get him? the Sharks desperately need young D prospects.

If anyone I would think Sturm....As for Nemec would have to be comparable one for one prospect...Bystedt Smith or Musty

 

[Triumph]

This debate cannot be had every two weeks but the simple fact is that Hamilton doesn't have a ton of value around the league but he is also the most likely piece to move to free up space, whether or not Kovacevic is re-signed.

 

[Patrik26]

Good streak by the Ducks right now. Beat us, Oilers and Jets in last 3


View attachment 955267View attachment 955268View attachment 955269

NO THANK YOU.

 

[JimEIV]

The notion that Dougie can be replaced with anything in our pipeline seems extremely absurd to me ...or at the very least, highly premature.

 

[Nubmer6]

He's a reclamation project at this point IMO. It's been 3 years since he played well at the NHL level. Granted, he didn't play a second in the NHL last year. He had okay numbers in the AHL. But he's been highly disappointing the last two seasons he's played in the NHL.

Rogalski will fix him!!!

 

[ZachaFlockaFlame]

The notion that Dougie can be replaced with anything in our pipeline seems extremely absurd to me ...or at the very least, highly premature.

It's not a 1 to 1 replacement, no one in their right mind is arguing that. The argument would be Kovacevic re-signed, Casey or Nemec being the 3RD + you use Dougie's cap savings on the forward side to improve the team as a whole.

This debate cannot be had every two weeks but the simple fact is that Hamilton doesn't have a ton of value around the league but he is also the most likely piece to move to free up space, whether or not Kovacevic is re-signed.

He probably does for the fact teams are always looking at RD improvements + he's a cannon of a shot which would intrigue teams with bad power plays.

 

[JimEIV]

It's not a 1 to 1 replacement, no one in their right mind is arguing that. The argument would be Kovacevic re-signed, Casey or Nemec being the 3RD + you use Dougie's cap savings on the forward side to improve the team as a whole.

Of course it's not 1 to 1. It's ask more of 5 to downgrade 1.

The problem usually is some of the 5 can't absorb the downgrade... there's chemistry, situations, some like Dillon and Kovacevic may already be at capacity...then you are going to ask them to do more....then the defense suffers.

 

[Triumph]

He probably does for the fact teams are always looking at RD improvements + he's a cannon of a shot which would intrigue teams with bad power plays.

They are not looking for Hamilton-type players which is the whole reason we have him to begin with. When he was a UFA, there were no real other bidders on Hamilton other than us and Carolina. His reputation around the league is considerably worse than his play. Most teams are already paying somebody a lot of money to be their PP1 guy. Like, if Seattle hadn't gone all out for Montour this offseason, maybe they're interested, if Utah hadn't paid a ton for Sergachev, maybe they're interested. But those two teams did do those things and so they're almost certainly out on Hamilton.

It just goes to show that it is far better to be deeper at forward than defense, there's more forward positions and excess centers can be converted to wing pretty easily. I'm glad that the Devils shouldn't have to make any external additions on defense for several years, but they're still in a rough spot with the value of all of these players - there's no way to 'win' the situation they have right now.

 

[MB3]

sign me the f*** up for a a 1 year league minimum for Toews. if he’s ass, he can be a health bomb and mentor the guys. 4th line center, cup champ captain, and at this point he can’t possibly be worse than whatever throw out there on the 4th line as it is.