Devils discussion (news, notes and speculation) - part II

Triumph

Registered User
Oct 2, 2007
14,179
15,336
It is so much fun to be a Devils fan these days. Not just because they‘re playing so well, but also becuase the Rags are so bad. That‘s almost twice the fun!

Really is the exact reverse of last season in that respect, the difference is that most of the Devils team is pretty young and should be good for a very long time.
 

My3Sons

Nobody told me there'd be days like these...
Sponsor
Fitz and Dennehy deserve all the credit in the world for uncovering the gem of Johnny Kovacevic. Moves like that are what make good teams great in the long run. Under the radar pickups for next to nothing that make a difference while making hardly a dent against the cap.

Not a soul expected it, but what a difference he's making alongside Siegs.
they really complement each other well and both fit what Keefe wants the team to do. Really some great synergy.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Dialamo

Better Call Sal

Salnalysis
Nov 24, 2011
26,428
43,492
New Jersey

For those maybe not as familiar with Dennehy and Kovacevic's connection, he was his coach at Merrimack.

"Coach Dennehy was crucial in my development," Kovacevic said, "When I first came into Merrimack, I wasn't a highly touted recruit or anything like that. And my first year, he really saw something in me and he allowed me to make mistakes, he allowed me to have a long leash and to figure out my game."
 

Devs3cups

Wind of Change
Sponsor
May 8, 2010
22,340
39,720

Scorcho

Twitter @AmateurAdult11
Apr 16, 2010
3,203
799
Space
I think mostly people just want him gone after this year for cap reasons.

I definitely think getting rid of Palat should be of much more importance. And worry about clearing out Dougie probably in the 2026 offseason,

wholeheartedly agree there.

I am also hopeful that Luke signs at lower than market rate in an effort win multiple cups with his brother.

If you really need to clear space, look to move palat, Haula, and Dillon before dougie.

I also think Dougie's cerebral game will allow him to age gracefully and still be effective at 35 when his contract runs out.
 

Bleedred

#InstagramHockey
Sponsor
May 1, 2011
134,707
65,278
wholeheartedly agree there.

I am also hopeful that Luke signs at lower than market rate in an effort win multiple cups with his brother.

If you really need to clear space, look to move palat, Haula, and Dillon before dougie.

I also think Dougie's cerebral game will allow him to age gracefully and still be effective at 35 when his contract runs out.
I’ve been thinking this a lot lately, but I don’t think moving Haula for cap reasons this offseason is off the table. His salary is barely more than half of Palat’s and he’s only gonna have one more year left to Palat’s two.

Someone will probably say only moving out Haula barely does anything cap wise, and they may be right. I really haven’t run the numbers.

But I do think moving him is a real option this offseason.
 

dgibb10

Registered User
Feb 29, 2024
4,278
3,854
I’ve been thinking this a lot lately, but I don’t think moving Haula for cap reasons this offseason is off the table. His salary is barely more than half of Palat’s and he’s only gonna have one more year left to Palat’s two.

Someone will probably say only moving out Haula barely does anything cap wise, and they may be right. I really haven’t run the numbers.

But I do think moving him is a real option this offseason.
It depends on what you think he is.

If you still view him as a 3C, it's not worth moving him out. An equivalent player like a jake evans will cost the same in UFA.

If you view him as declining more than that, then moving him out for a cheaper 4th line option gives you a lot more breathing room.

So breathing room to upgrade a backup goalie, pay a bit more to signings, or upgrade on either the bottom 6.

If you want to ship out haula for a complimentary winger (a Warren Foegele type in terms of price while complimenting Jack and Bratt well on their wing), that could absolutely make sense

This team is 91.4 mill total cap.
Screenshot 2024-12-18 at 12.32.15 PM.png


Arseni, Evans in for Tatar, Palat imo is an upgrade there already, but you can take it further if you want.

And then the year after that, I'd look to move Dougie in a trade for a goalie and slide Dillon to 7D behind Silayev. Then sign Nemec hopefully longer term, bridge if necessary.
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: My3Sons

dgibb10

Registered User
Feb 29, 2024
4,278
3,854
Marino ≠ Kovacevic

Two entirely different games
The point wasn't about playstyles. The point was about career years and how trusting them over continuous, sustained levels of quality play can be a mistake.

Screenshot 2024-12-18 at 12.46.40 PM.png
Another example, these were colin millers numbers through his first 33 games in NJD last year
 

My3Sons

Nobody told me there'd be days like these...
Sponsor
It depends on what you think he is.

If you still view him as a 3C, it's not worth moving him out. An equivalent player like a jake evans will cost the same in UFA.

If you view him as declining more than that, then moving him out for a cheaper 4th line option gives you a lot more breathing room.

So breathing room to upgrade a backup goalie, pay a bit more to signings, or upgrade on either the bottom 6.

If you want to ship out haula for a complimentary winger (a Warren Foegele type in terms of price while complimenting Jack and Bratt well on their wing), that could absolutely make sense

This team is 91.4 mill total cap. View attachment 947535

Arseni, Evans in for Tatar, Palat imo is an upgrade there already, but you can take it further if you want.

And then the year after that, I'd look to move Dougie in a trade for a goalie and slide Dillon to 7D behind Silayev. Then sign Nemec hopefully longer term, bridge if necessary.
I would not be surprised if Luke is more like $9.5 on a long term deal if the cap is at $93 mil for next season.
 

Hisch13r

Registered User
May 16, 2012
36,531
38,611
NJ
Luke in the 9 games before Florida

  • Down 1-5 in goals at 5v5
  • Only 1 pt and it was a PP secondary assist
  • 48.18% xG
  • 1.97 xGF/60

Luke in the 16 games starting in Florida

  • Up 13-5 in goals at 5v5
  • 10 pts since. Only 2 are secondary assists and 8 of those pts are at 5v5
  • 66.05% xG. That's 9th in the league overall and 1st among D
  • 3.58 xGF/60. That's 6th in the league and 1st among D
 

dgibb10

Registered User
Feb 29, 2024
4,278
3,854
I would not be surprised if Luke is more like $9.5 on a long term deal if the cap is at $93 mil for next season.
I will be commiting voodoo magic to have luke do the silly Crosby thing where he insists on his AAV being related to his jersey number.

8.6 Mill AAV until he's 40 for luke

Luke in the 9 games before Florida

  • Down 1-5 in goals at 5v5
  • Only 1 pt and it was a PP secondary assist
  • 48.18% xG
  • 1.97 xGF/60

Luke in the 16 games starting in Florida

  • Up 13-5 in goals at 5v5
  • 10 pts since. Only 2 are secondary assists and 8 of those pts are at 5v5
  • 66.05% xG. That's 9th in the league overall and 1st among D
  • 3.58 xGF/60. That's 6th in the league and 1st among D
That NYI game was an awful showing by Pesce and Luke. They had pretty ugly plays on multiple Goals against and gave up a TON beside it

Since then. DOMINANCE.
 
  • Like
Reactions: My3Sons

Hisch13r

Registered User
May 16, 2012
36,531
38,611
NJ
I would not be surprised if Luke is more like $9.5 on a long term deal if the cap is at $93 mil for next season.

I don't know if he'll have the production to warrant that but it would be well deserved. Seider just signed for 7 years at 9.72% of the cap. He was coming off 3 straight 40+ pt years and is great defensively. I think more around 9ish mil than 9.5 makes sense as the high end.
 
  • Like
Reactions: My3Sons

Hisch13r

Registered User
May 16, 2012
36,531
38,611
NJ
Luke in the 9 games before Florida

  • Down 1-5 in goals at 5v5
  • Only 1 pt and it was a PP secondary assist
  • 48.18% xG
  • 1.97 xGF/60

Luke in the 16 games starting in Florida

  • Up 13-5 in goals at 5v5
  • 10 pts since. Only 2 are secondary assists and 8 of those pts are at 5v5
  • 66.05% xG. That's 9th in the league overall and 1st among D
  • 3.58 xGF/60. That's 6th in the league and 1st among D
Screenshot 2024-12-18 at 1.05.04 PM.png
 

Nocashstyle

HFBoards Sponsor
Sponsor
May 27, 2009
8,057
8,704
NJ
I don’t think it’s unreasonable to be a little wary of trying to lock up Kovacevic long term or at the expense of Dougie/moving someone like Nemec, etc…

It’s also impossible to argue with his on ice impact right now. He’s one of the most important players on this team, bar none. His underlying numbers before he came to NJ were still very solid, but also came over as a 27 year old with only 143 NHL games played. That’s not a lot. I don’t really know what the best course of action really is. Siegenthaler probably left a few bucks on the table, but was willing to sacrifice that to stay here long term. That’s probably best case scenario here too.
 

Ad

Upcoming events

Ad

Ad