Devils discussion (news, notes and speculation) - part II

[dgibb10]

Salary cap allocation is a thing and it involves estimating how much you roughly should spend on each position. You can google it, I didn’t invent it myself.

Teams like San Jose and pre-Zito Panthers are examples of teams that were sunk by spending too much on defense. You just don’t see successful teams spending +35% on defense.

32% is not 36.5%
32% of 92.5m is 29.5m
36.5% of 92.5m is 33.76m
4.26m is quite a bit considering that could pay for several forwards.
And 32% is a bit too much for defense.

I’ve said my points:
1) Good f***ing luck moving Palat.
2) Hamilton’s contract, along with the 4 other defensemen’s deals, make a long term deal for Luke difficult. I definitely don’t see how keep Kovacevic on top of that.

Your proposals either have a very thin forward core, or an unlikely fantasy trade, or both. Not loving a thin forward core and not optimistic about the fantasy trades.

But this is Fitz’s problem, not mine. I don’t know what solution he’ll come up with but that’s his job.

Presumably he had plan when he gave out the UFA deals this off-season and I doubt that plan involved counting on a miracle Palat trade.

"should" and "roughly". Doesn't make it a hard rule.

Currently NJD has an incredible dcore where all 3 pairs are excellent, along with a quality PK group and an excellent set of PP dmen. They all handle around 20 minutes a night and all do well.

We can basically run back the exact same core of the currently excellent team if we want with only changes being Daws in for Allen and Grits in for Tatar. Even with giving luke and Kovy 12+ mill combined

Now beyond that, if you want to change things to try and UPGRADE, you have to make decisions yes.

If you want to bridge Luke, sure you can do that to fund more forward depth. It would be stupid but you could.

If you want to dump palat to try and improve depth at forward, there are paths to do that. It may get more pricey than you'd like, but it can be done.

If you want to move off hamilton, you can do that. It may decimate the PP, but it's an option.

If you want to let kovacevic walk, you can do that.

If you want to ship out prospects and picks to buy a bunch of retention and fund cheap depth that way, also an option (similar to the cotter trade getting a league minimum 3rd liner).

But all of those are options if you want to try and CHANGE things. NJD is able to run back the status quo if they want.

 

[theoptimist]

I'm not big on Hall. I don't know if you can really insulate him and he doesn't really fit into the puck retrieval scheme they've got going.

Thank you

 

[bigd]

Hall makes sense because he'll be cheaper than most of the rentals out there, them not having a first will take them out of guys like Palmieri or Nelson unless they make the trade value via prospects which we don't know how aggressive Fitz gets. Vatrano is another good option if you want a cheaper winger

Hall is too slow for this team.

 

[TheBeerNerd]

Hall still carries a $6 million price tag if the Blackhawks retain nothing. Surely, we can do better and cheaper with a trade target.

 

[Smitty426]

He can do plenty of other stuff offensively. Far more dynamic player.

I dont disagree he's getting there but DHs shot is an element that this team does not have. LHs allows us to move on from DH at some point, but I dont want anything messing with the PP. They had LH on pp1 last year it was terrible

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

I dont disagree he's getting there but DHs shot is an element that this team does not have. LHs allows us to move on from DH at some point, but I dont want anything messing with the PP. They had LH on pp1 last year it was terrible

Noesen is the most important part of the power play in my opinion. Last year it was terrible because Jack Hughes had 1 arm.

That whole year has become a blur, but didn’t Luke start on PP1 when it was historically good to start the year when Jack had 2 arms?

 

[Smitty426]

Noesen is the most important part of the power play in my opinion. Last year it was terrible because Jack Hughes had 1 arm.

That whole year has become a blur, but didn’t Luke start on PP1 when it was historically good to start the year when Jack had 2 arms?

Id argue DHs 20 games played and almost 60 less pts were as key to their lack of success as losing Jack. The most important part of the PP is the coach rubbing it. Colliton has found so much with this "motion" that teams can't defend it. The speed, the net front, cross seam passes and creativity. Luke will be the guy eventually, but its Dougie and they should not try and please Jack by putting his bro on it. Noeson is key, you're right, when they had Bastian playing that part it had some success, but they got away from it. There are just too many options with the PP and its great!

 

[Triumph]

Noesen is the most important part of the power play in my opinion. Last year it was terrible because Jack Hughes had 1 arm.

That whole year has become a blur, but didn’t Luke start on PP1 when it was historically good to start the year when Jack had 2 arms?

He did, but while some of the results are similar between this season and last, the xGs were far worse last season - right now the Devils' top unit is around 11.8 xG/60, last season Luke was at 8.8 xG/60 through 21 games. I'm not a huge believer in xGs on the power play but I do know that this group is having incredible results, both by eye test and number - I didn't think last year's power play was as good.

I know it won't happen but replacing Hamilton with Casey is what I would want to do.

 

[Maine Fan]

I am always promoting positives thoughts towards Tom Fitzgerald our GM and all the other titles.

He said at his Christmas News Presser that he was happy with the Devils D. I am also. As you know I promote "Defense Wins Games." I am happy that Fitz is happy. That can only mean most Devils fans are happy at the right time the Holidays for most of us.

Fitz is happy with Keefe as we should be along with Keefe's system of Play.

Fitz is happy with the progress of the Luke Hughes upcoming contract and the discussion. The only snag would be if Luke wanted 5 instead of 8 years. I expect 8 years at $10M, can you imagine for a kid, a great one at that. Tom is thinking 8 years at $9M.

I know we still have some offensive holes to fill I have all the confidence in Tom Fitz to get those plugged soon.

Goalie, they are a breed unto themselves. They play hot and cold, very good and then very bad. What we want is one that balances out over time to be more on the plus side. Markstrom was not my first choice but that is over he is what we have with Allen. Give then both positive thoughts each game they play.

Happy and Healthy Holidays to each of you and your families. May 2025 be your best year to date.

Go Devils

 

[dzubrus8]

Would we have otherwise been paying a 1st for Kyle Palmeiri? Gross

There’s almost no chance Palms would go for a 1. If you look at 1st round picks that moved at the deadline in the last several years it was either for defensemen (Walker, Hamilton, McCabe), centers (Hertl w/significant retention) or non-rental and/or cost controlled wingers (Meier,, Jeannot).

We had the same conversations last year about Toffoli. A 2 and 3 or 2 and B prospect is the ceiling here unless they give back another piece or retain.

Brisebois isn't an idiot. If he cared about sentimentality then he would've kept Stamkos. He's not bringing back a broken down Palat.

Nobody is an idiot to take that trade. I really liked the offer composed.

Tampa knows Palat works in that system and at $3x2 is a good value. Finding a trustworthy middle six winger for that price is tough plus Tampa has shown a proclivity to overpay for cost control (Hagel, Jeannot, etc.)

If it was for any less, say $2m a year, there’d be a line of suitors.

Noesen is the most important part of the power play in my opinion. Last year it was terrible because Jack Hughes had 1 arm.

That whole year has become a blur, but didn’t Luke start on PP1 when it was historically good to start the year when Jack had 2 arms?

That’s a reasonable argument re: Noesen. Between Hamilton being out, Jack Hughes w one arm, injuries to Jack/Nico/Timo, and Luke Hughes not being the most sound decision maker with the puck as PPQB it’s no surprise the PP suffered last year. I don’t think they’re #1 without Dougie this year but if Hughes keeps developing his offensive game I think he can be PPQB1 next year.

Lastly, Dougie traded this offseason or next likely keeps positive value. Look at Subban trade he had 3x$9 coming out of the worst year of his career and was acquired for 2 2nds by *checks notes* that team in Newark. RHD who can play 20mins a game, one of the best PPQBs in the league, lower cash paid remaining than cap hit. There are probably 5-10 teams in the league interested for positive or neutral value

 

[Hisch13r]

Trading both Dougie and Nemec is only something you could get away with in NHL25 and not any serious real life discussion

It's a smart real life proposition as well if the right deal is there for Nemec.

He did, but while some of the results are similar between this season and last, the xGs were far worse last season - right now the Devils' top unit is around 11.8 xG/60, last season Luke was at 8.8 xG/60 through 21 games. I'm not a huge believer in xGs on the power play but I do know that this group is having incredible results, both by eye test and number - I didn't think last year's power play was as good.

I know it won't happen but replacing Hamilton with Casey is what I would want to do.

That top unit last year wasn't as good as this year but I think no Noesen's a bigger factor for that than Dougie being on it over Luke.

 

[dgibb10]

Noesen is the most important part of the power play in my opinion. Last year it was terrible because Jack Hughes had 1 arm.

That whole year has become a blur, but didn’t Luke start on PP1 when it was historically good to start the year when Jack had 2 arms?

It was historically good because of dougie having the PP2 play at a ridiculously high level.

Jack, Nico, and Meier were hurt for games 9-20. Dougie had 4 points in 14 minutes on PP2 to keep us competent

 

[Billdo]

I am always promoting positives thoughts towards Tom Fitzgerald our GM and all the other titles.

He said at his Christmas News Presser that he was happy with the Devils D. I am also. As you know I promote "Defense Wins Games." I am happy that Fitz is happy. That can only mean most Devils fans are happy at the right time the Holidays for most of us.

Fitz is happy with Keefe as we should be along with Keefe's system of Play.

Fitz is happy with the progress of the Luke Hughes upcoming contract and the discussion. The only snag would be if Luke wanted 5 instead of 8 years. I expect 8 years at $10M, can you imagine for a kid, a great one at that. Tom is thinking 8 years at $9M.

I know we still have some offensive holes to fill I have all the confidence in Tom Fitz to get those plugged soon.

Goalie, they are a breed unto themselves. They play hot and cold, very good and then very bad. What we want is one that balances out over time to be more on the plus side. Markstrom was not my first choice but that is over he is what we have with Allen. Give then both positive thoughts each game they play.

Happy and Healthy Holidays to each of you and your families. May 2025 be your best year to date.

Go Devils

Excellent post, Happy Holidays to you as well, hope you're doing well.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

It was historically good because of dougie having the PP2 play at a ridiculously high level.

Jack, Nico, and Meier were hurt for games 9-20. Dougie had 4 points in 14 minutes on PP2 to keep us competent

No reason to believe the PP wouldn’t be good with Luke Hughes 2 years older and other pieces added and our franchise player healthy. “The PP may not be good” argument doesn’t move me.

 

[Bleedred]

His skating stride is also something people never realized would lead to knee injuries, the long dashing strides where his knees were pretty low to the ice could lead to some devastating injuries. The collision in 2017 v LA was pretty obvious in this regard.



HOLY SHIT at this being MacDermid Imagine saying one of those guys would be a Devil in the future and it wasn't Hall lmao. Wonder if Nico/MacDermid had a laugh about this situation too lol. Thank god,Mac didn't just randomly go after Nico like some NHLers do when they're pressed about a bad hit lol

I’ve constantly been reminded of that knee on knee hit on Hall ever since we got MacDermid. And I’ve talked about it on here.

That’s my one pre-Devils MacDermid memory.

 

[Perratrooper]

In a scenario where Colorado decides to move on from Rantanen due to contract asks approaching MackInnon range ($12.25m) would the Devils be interested in making a trade for him re-signed and if so, what would you guys be willing to offer?

 

[dgibb10]

In a scenario where Colorado decides to move on from Rantanen due to contract asks approaching MackInnon range ($12.25m) would the Devils be interested in making a trade for him re-signed and if so, what would you guys be willing to offer?

3rd round pick in the offseason, rental price at the deadline

No reason to believe the PP wouldn’t be good with Luke Hughes 2 years older and other pieces added and our franchise player healthy. “The PP may not be good” argument doesn’t move me.

Again, then you struggle to understand what makes our PP a threat now, and just how good dougie hamilton is on the power play.

Saying Luke isn't as good a PP weapon as hamilton isn't a slight on him.

 

[Perratrooper]

3rd round pick in the offseason, rental price at the deadline

I did reference it as a re-signed Rantanen. If you have no interest in trading for Rantanen that’s fine, just a curiosity as I could see NJD being a good trading partner.

 

[Devils Trap]

In a scenario where Colorado decides to move on from Rantanen due to contract asks approaching MackInnon range ($12.25m) would the Devils be interested in making a trade for him re-signed and if so, what would you guys be willing to offer?

I mean, I dont think we have the cap to do anything more then a rental. Fitz is pretty strict on forwards not making that much,

All of our forwards are under 9 Million, so we prob arent a fit but as a rental, I would love him.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

Again, then you struggle to understand what makes our PP a threat now, and just how good dougie hamilton is on the power play.

Saying Luke isn't as good a PP weapon as hamilton isn't a slight on him.

I don’t really care if he’s as good of a PP weapon. That doesn’t mean it isn’t good business to move that contract.

 

[dgibb10]

I did reference it as a re-signed Rantanen. If you have no interest in trading for Rantanen that’s fine, just a curiosity as I could see NJD being a good trading partner.

Yes, not paying you to negotiate a potential extension we can do ourselves if we want.

Adding the word "resiged" doesn't add to his value magically.

Also, we would need retention this year which, unless you want to eat 50%+ of his contract for the next 8 years, isn't happening if you sign rantanen before trading him

I don’t really care if he’s as good of a PP weapon. That doesn’t mean it isn’t good business to move that contract.

Then you once again don't understand just how good hamilton is on the PP. Over the past 3 years he has been the BEST power play dman, by a pretty large margin, while still winning his minutes significantly 5v5

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

Then you once again don't understand just how good hamilton is on the PP. Over the past 3 years he has been the BEST power play dman, by a pretty large margin, while still winning his minutes significantly 5v5

I understand his impact fully. Not interested in spending all that money on the back end, thanks.

 

[Perratrooper]

Yes, not paying you to negotiate a potential extension we can do ourselves if we want.

Fair enough, I was more so trying to understand if Devils fans have any interest in a re-signed Rantanen. If you/other fans don’t want to explore that option and just view him as a rental type player then it answers my question of it’s worthwhile having that conversation.

I think if that were the case the Avs would just keep him as their own rental.

Just as a reference point, he’s said to want $14m as a true UFA, which equates to $12.25m if it were to be over 8 years instead of 7.

 

[dgibb10]

I understand his impact fully. Not interested in spending all that money on the back end, thanks.

No, I really don't think you do.

NJDs success this year is largely driven by having the best power play in hockey, which is drivenn in large part by dougie hamilton.

If you're pretending that having an elite PP doesn't matter, you're a fool.
If you're pretending that losing dougie won't hurt said power play, you're a fool.

Also, if you're pretending losing Dougie won't hurt significantly 5v5, you're also a fool.

There are 9 total dman in the NHL to put up a better 5v5 xGoals differential than dougie's 0.63/60 over the last 3 years.

Fair enough, I was more so trying to understand if Devils fans have any interest in a re-signed Rantanen. If you/other fans don’t want to explore that option and just view him as a rental type player then it answers my question of it’s worthwhile having that conversation.

I think if that were the case the Avs would just keep him as their own rental.

Just as a reference point, he’s said to want $14m as a true UFA, which equates to $12.25m if it were to be over 8 years instead of 7.

Yes I understand you are scared at the thought of Rantanen walking as a UFA or being sold as the rental that he is.

But slapping "resigned" onto his name doesn't suddenly triple his value.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

No, I really don't think you do.

NJDs success this year is largely driven by having the best power play in hockey, which is drivenn in large part by dougie hamilton.

If you're pretending that having an elite PP doesn't matter, you're a fool.
If you're pretending that losing dougie won't hurt said power play, you're a fool.

Also, if you're pretending losing Dougie won't hurt significantly 5v5, you're also a fool.

There are 9 total dman in the NHL to put up a better 5v5 xGoals differential than dougie's 0.63/60 over the last 3 years.

Everyone with a different opinion is a fool. You can keep posting your stats, of which none are interesting. Not a close call, very comfortable moving on from the player in the offseason given what we have on the roster and in the pipeline.

It’s also pretty funny to do the brain genius act while pretending Dougie has been remotely good defensively this season. Try watching some games?