Devils discussion (news, notes and speculation) - part II

[Lou Bloom]

If I'm trading Nemec it's for a high end yound fwd.

And while Tuch looks like a good option for the top line, and I could see a deal centered around Mercer to get him here, his shot rate has dropped pretty significantly over the past 2 years. He's been banged up throughout his career. I wonder if he's not a guy already on the downside.

Similar to Meier in a couple ways in that he's a big guy, has had injuries throughout his career, won't play on our top PP1, and thus I think that while he may be good here, may also not fully meet expectations.

Tuch is only 28 and lead the Sabres in scoring last season and so far this season while being a two way player that PKs and adds physicality. The reason for his drop in stats is mostly due to Tage Thompson going from elite to just good. Play him with Jack and Bratt and you’ll likely see his numbers go up.

I also thought highly of Kulich in his draft year (same draft as Nemec) and he’s performed great in the AHL post draft. An NHL ready center prospect with top 6 potential and three years of ELC control is very valuable.

I also don’t think Nemec is valued similarly to your average 2nd overall pick, he’s a talented young defenseman that also has some very real flaws that may limit his upside.

 

[Lou Bloom]

I like Tuch but I'm not giving up Nemec to get him. Tuch is 28 and his extension will be during his 30 year old season. Probably a 1.5 year rental - not giving up Nemec for that.

Casey I'd probably consider though.

I understand that, but I’m also lower on Nemec than many here.

I also think people underrate how valuable Tuch is. A high end two way physical top 6 forward signed for $4.7M for 1.5 years is great value. Add in a 20 year old former 1st round center prospect with great AHL performance with very good skating and scoring talent and I see it as a fair value trade.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

I think something around Mercer and Tuch could work for both teams. Buffalo is further away from competing so they get a guy that is younger with more team control. No interest at all in the Nemec-Kulich part of that deal though.

 

[devilsblood]

Tuch is only 28 and lead the Sabres in scoring last season and so far this season while being a two way player that PKs and adds physicality. The reason for his drop in stats is mostly due to Tage Thompson going from elite to just good. Play him with Jack and Bratt and you’ll likely see his numbers go up.

I also thought highly of Kulich in his draft year (same draft as Nemec) and he’s performed great in the AHL post draft. An NHL ready center prospect with top 6 potential and three years of ELC control is very valuable.

I also don’t think Nemec is valued similarly to your average 2nd overall pick, he’s a talented young defenseman that also has some very real flaws that may limit his upside.

He led Buff in scoring but we are talking all of 59 points. 22 goals which is the 2nd best mark in his career.

The shot rate concern I raised doesn't look to be legit though, as his shot attempt rate has maintained at a good level, just not hitting the net.(scoring chances and ixG's has dipped a bit but not too significant).

Like I say above, seems super unlikely, but if there was strong consensus amongst our scouts then maybe something worth thinking about.

 

[Lou Bloom]

I think something around Mercer and Tuch could work for both teams. Buffalo is further away from competing so they get a guy that is younger with more team control. No interest at all in the Nemec-Kulich part of that deal though.

Tuch has much more value than Mercer. You’re not adding someone like him without trading a piece that hurts to give up.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

Tuch has much more value than Mercer. You’re not adding someone like him without trading a piece that hurts to give up.

How much more? He’s 5, almost 6 years older with 1 more year of control. Mercer is signed for 2 more and is an RFA. With “former 1st round pick” shine and Tuch only has 1 season with more than the 27 goals he put up in his age 21 season.

Anyway, easily hang up if Nemec is even brought up in such a deal.

 

[Lou Bloom]

He led Buff in scoring but we are talking all of 59 points. 22 goals which is the 2nd best mark in his career.

The shot rate concern I raised doesn't look to be legit though, as his shot attempt rate has maintained at a good level, just not hitting the net.(scoring chances and ixG's has dipped a bit but not too significant).

Like I say above, seems super unlikely, but if there was strong consensus amongst our scouts then maybe something worth thinking about.

Tuch Isn’t a star play driver, he’s going to be reliant on who his teammates are for the highest point totals. That’s why when Thompson played like a superstar Tuch was over a PPG and when Thompson went back to scoring around 50-60 points Tuch followed suit. Put Tuch next to Jack and Bratt and I think you will see great numbers out of him.

 

[Lou Bloom]

How much more? He’s 5, almost 6 years older with 1 more year of control. Mercer is signed for 2 more and is an RFA. With “former 1st round pick” shine and Tuch only has 1 season with more than the 27 goals he put up in his age 21 season.

Anyway, easily hang up if Nemec is even brought up in such a deal.

Mercer is playing to about the value of his contract while Tuch is a steal on his and brings a lot of desirable traits that front offices value a ton.

Mercer is in a weird middle ground where he’s good enough to justify his contract but not the type of sure fire top 6 forward that teams are clamoring to acquire due to age and team control. Any contending team would be willing to send multiple 1st round picks or similar level prospects for Tuch which is much more enticing than Mercer.

That’s fine on Nemec, we obviously value him differently. I think he’s a great prospect but I don’t view him as a future top pairing lock, he’s very similar to me as your average back half of the lottery defensive prospect.

 

[Triumph]

Trading Tuch would just be a massive blow to the Sabres - he's their hometown boy and the biggest piece they got back for Eichel. I can't see them trading him without a massive overpay and they've already spent 2 1st overalls on D plus Mittelstadt who they traded for Byram, so I can't see them trading him for Nemec, either.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

Mercer is playing to about the value of his contract while Tuch is a steal on his and brings a lot of desirable traits that front offices value a ton.

Mercer is in a weird middle ground where he’s good enough to justify his contract but not the type of sure fire top 6 forward that teams are clamoring to acquire due to age and team control. Any contending team would be willing to send multiple 1st round picks or similar level prospects for Tuch which is much more enticing than Mercer.

That’s fine on Nemec, we obviously value him differently. I think he’s a great prospect but I don’t view him as a future top pairing lock, he’s very similar to me as your average back half of the lottery defensive prospect.

I really don’t think teams would send multiple 1st rounders for 1.5 seasons of Tuch. To me that’s just not enough term to pony up that much for a wing — who has one full season even close to PPG. Mercer, at least based on how he’s talked about when we have nationally televised games, seems to have a reputation as a complete player and hard worker.

I’m not even very high on Mercer, but Mercer plus a 2nd and some decent prospect seems like a competitive offer for such a player.

 

[My3Sons]

I thought Tuch was from the Buffalo area and part of the reason they acquired him was because he actually wanted to play there. If that's accurate I don't see them trading him.

 

[Zippy316]

Tuch has much more value than Mercer. You’re not adding someone like him without trading a piece that hurts to give up.

I’m not sure I would say much more value. I think it would be similar to Zacha/Haula trade in the sense that each team is addressing different needs and values each player differently.

Tuch is the better player today, but Mercer is younger and a bit more cost-controlled for a team like Buffalo. Plus Mercer brings everything coaches/GMs love even if it doesn’t translate on the ice all of the time.

 

[Lou Bloom]

I really don’t think teams would send multiple 1st rounders for 1.5 seasons of Tuch. To me that’s just not enough term to pony up that much for a wing — who has one full season even close to PPG. Mercer, at least based on how he’s talked about when we have nationally televised games, seems to have a reputation as a complete player and hard worker.

I’m not even very high on Mercer, but Mercer plus a 2nd and some decent prospect seems like a competitive offer for such a player.

Coleman brought back a 1st round pick + a recently drafted 1st rounder in Nolan Foote. And Coleman doesn’t have the same value as Alex Tuch.

Mercer + 2nd round pick + decent prospect doesn’t even get the conversation started.

 

[AfroThunder396]

Trading Tuch would just be a massive blow to the Sabres - he's their hometown boy and the biggest piece they got back for Eichel. I can't see them trading him without a massive overpay and they've already spent 2 1st overalls on D plus Mittelstadt who they traded for Byram, so I can't see them trading him for Nemec, either.

The Sabres have reached a breaking point with their fan base, they are desperate and I wouldn't put anything past Adams to try and save his job.

That said, I think they are more likely to panic buy than panic sell. If they start selling off pieces then Adams is admitting his tenure has failed and there's no reason to keep him around anymore.

I thought Tuch was from the Buffalo area and part of the reason they acquired him was because he actually wanted to play there. If that's accurate I don't see them trading him.

Tuch is from Syracuse (~3 hours away) and grew up a Sabres fan. It was definitely a big selling point of bringing him in and giving him the C. I don't see him being available until they replace Adams and start blowing it up.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

Coleman brought back a 1st round pick + a recently drafted 1st rounder in Nolan Foote. And Coleman doesn’t have the same value as Alex Tuch.

Mercer + 2nd round pick + decent prospect doesn’t even get the conversation started.

Coleman had multiple years of control at 1.8 million per year and that package is peanuts compared to an established young player plus a 2nd and more.

Don’t have much interest in the conversation if the cost is much more than that. We lose badly.

 

[Lou Bloom]

The Sabres have reached a breaking point with their fan base, they are desperate and I wouldn't put anything past Adams to try and save his job.

That said, I think they are more likely to panic buy than panic sell. If they start selling off pieces then Adams is admitting his tenure has failed and there's no reason to keep him around anymore.


Tuch is from Syracuse (~3 hours away) and grew up a Sabres fan. It was definitely a big selling point of bringing him in and giving him the C. I don't see him being available until they replace Adams and start blowing it up.

I don’t think he’d be willing to trade Tuch currently for straight futures but the Sabres were aggressive in pursuing Jiricek and are desperate for a top 4 RHD both short term and long term. With Mercer currently in the NHL and Nemec NHL ready he could justify it as more of a retooling move than a rebuilding one.

 

[Lou Bloom]

Coleman had multiple years of control at 1.8 million per year and that package is peanuts compared to an established young player plus a 2nd and more.

Don’t have much interest in the conversation if the cost is much more than that. We lose badly.

And Tuch has the same amount of control (1.5 years) at a bargain rate $4.7M with much more established track record of performance and a higher end upside than Coleman based on his PPG + season in 2022-2023.

being an established young player doesn’t mean as much if the upside is limited and you’re not on a bargain contract. Mercer is solid but his numbers have stagnated and he’s making $4M the next three seasons. Even if he’s a solid player you’re not getting much value on his contract now and wouldn’t get much value when he becomes an RFA in three years.

 

[longislanddevil]

Tuch has much more value than Mercer. You’re not adding someone like him without trading a piece that hurts to give up.

I would trade Mercer (plus a little more if needed) for Tuch in a heartbeat and not think twice about it.

My brother is a Sabres fan and raves about Kulich. I don’t see Buffalo trading him though. Not sure I’d deal Nemec for Kulich.