Devils discussion (news, notes and speculation) - offseason edition

[Devils Trap]

That model is not predicting what Stephenson would potentially sign for, it’s predicting what he’ll be worth per year on 7 year deal before the 24-25 season started.

If you look at the chart, his 2.6m in 24-25 ended up being too generous:
View attachment 1039161View attachment 1039162



He signed for 7 years so it’s showing a prediction of his actual worth over that contract.

The model doesn’t “want” anything.

When this years "top 10 worst contracts" comes out, he will be #1 by far lol

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

Stephenson was quite literally one of the worst regular forwards in the NHL last year. That is BEFORE even talking about his contract at all.

This is not rocket science. I don't care what he did 2 and 3 years ago. He is 31 years old. He is quite probably on the decline.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

 

[Time Skip]

Some 3C options you could move Mercer alone or in a package for (or get a package for):

Morgan Geekie
Ryan McLeod
Peyton Krebs
Cole Sillinger
Anton Lundell
Joel Eriksson-Ek
Shane Pinto
Ridley Greid
Barrett Hayton
Connor McMichael
Gabriel Vilardi

Pretty wide range in skill and archetypes there but all are RFAs or have contracts; didn’t include any UFAs or rentals

 

[Devils Trap]

That Bennett deal is going to be horrendous - his underlying numbers suck. He has never had over what 65 points !?

If he makes that much money he will NEVER be worth it

 

[Time Skip]

That Bennett deal is going to be horrendous - his underlying numbers suck. He has never had over what 65 points !?

If he makes that much money he will NEVER be worth it

Bennett has never broken 51; this year was his career best. He misses a lot of games so his PPG is higher than a 51 per 82 average

 

[Mgd31]

New worse Palat contract for some poor team. Hopefully Toronto

 

[PizzaAndPucks]

The chemistry with Nico+ Meier leading up to the playoffs and in the actual playoffs was a good sign for next season. Bratt & Jack are a great comv9nation as we already know. They can manage with Palat in their line as well.

Gritsyuk is probably better off getting his feet wet in the NHL playing on Nico's line. There isn't a true playmaker type players on that line but Nico having 2 goal scoring type players on his line would be good for a change.

 

[Time Skip]

The chemistry with Nico+ Meier leading up to the playoffs and in the actual playoffs was a good sign for next season. Bratt & Jack are a great comv9nation as we already know. They can manage with Palat in their line as well.

Gritsyuk is probably better off getting his feet wet in the NHL playing on Nico's line. There isn't a true playmaker type players on that line but Nico having 2 goal scoring type players on his line would be good for a change.

Only thing I’d add (or change) to this is Bratt can produce at a 70+ pace himself, I think. What if we try to pioneer a true three line team early and run him with a new, shiny but middling** 3C?

Just a fun idea lol. Jack would elevate Palat and a Noesen, maybe you still have Mercer too. Im not worried about Jacks production; Keefe has also shown in Toronto he’ll switch lines mid game to stack Matthews and Marner when needed

* had to edit lol, point is Jesper would elevate them. Maybe that just ends up Haula again, shit

 

[Time Skip]

So in theory you’d run (im not adding possible future acquisitions yet)

Gritsyuk-Hischier-Meier
Palat-Hughes-Mercer
Bratt-Haula-Noesen
Cotter-Glass-Bastian

Even if you didn’t add anyone, which obviously wont happen, I think spacing out Bratt and Jack helps a ton. You can simply throw them together and run Mercer on his offside with Haula and Noesen when we really need them paired

 

[Time Skip]

And sorry for triple posting but just getting my thoughts out

Haula is the obvious candidate for the bare minimum change up front, no? Outside Mercer who’s trickier, Haula is simply a cap dump.

None of Jack Jesper Nico Timo Noesen are going anywhere. Seriously doubt Palat goes. Mercer could. Haula should. Tatar is.

 

[Devils731]

And sorry for triple posting but just getting my thoughts out

Haula is the obvious candidate for the bare minimum change up front, no? Outside Mercer who’s trickier, Haula is simply a cap dump.

None of Jack Jesper Nico Timo Noesen are going anywhere. Seriously doubt Palat goes. Mercer could. Haula should. Tatar is.

The thing is that Haula play much of the year with an injury and once he got better his play looked way better, he started getting points again, and his edge metrics went way up.

The team knows better than us how hurt he did or didn’t play and which they should likely expect next year.

 

[Time Skip]

The thing is that Haula play much of the year with an injury and once he got better his play looked way better, he started getting points again, and his edge metrics went way up.

The team knows better than us how hurt he did or didn’t play and which they should likely expect next year.

I agree but also recognize that Gritsyuk cant be the only addition. Thatd leave Mercer (who I gave ideas for above) and Palat (who we all know is much tougher)

Also could be a hot take but I think his role with us is harder to replace than Haula’s. A 3C can be found, just will be expensive. A grinding LW for Jack is tougher. Cotter? Meh. Such a specific archetype to look for; one teams tend to covet

But maybe you’re right. We dump Palat and sign a grinding, middling 2/3LW for Jack. Run Haula 3C again. Would pray we sign Glass as 4C then as backup.

 

[MadDevil]

I don't trust Haula and Glass to be their two bottom 6 centers for an entire season. Although given the cap constraints I'm not sure how much they're going to have to get a quality #3 center. They might have to try to bring in another Glass type and hope that the competition raises one of them to being that #3 center.

 

[Emperoreddy]

I don't trust Haula and Glass to be their two bottom 6 centers for an entire season. Although given the cap constraints I'm not sure how much they're going to have to get a quality #3 center. They might have to try to bring in another Glass type and hope that the competition raises one of them to being that #3 center.

Yeah, it might just be you gamble on someone who can also play wing and have them and Glass battle for those spots.

Though I figure it would be someone with more experience

 

[PizzaAndPucks]

Im not a fan of seeing Bratt on the 3rd line. There's no way he plays there unless he was in some awful slump or if its a playoff game type of lineup.

 

[ZachaFlockaFlame]

Yeah Bennett is screaming Palat 2.0, some dumbass team is going to overpay him based on his playoffs. If he was smart, he takes less to stay in Florida but can't fault a player to cash in on a finite amount of time in their careers

 

[Comparison Ford]

i wonder if we could offload Hamilton to a team like Montreal this summer…

 

[Devils Trap]

i wonder if we could offload Hamilton to a team like Montreal this summer…

NSH or SJS is my hope here

 

[theoptimist]

Chandler Stephenson sucks. Drags down all his linemates, does nothing well, and should be paying at least $2M of his salary to Mark Stone, the actually good player who made Stephenson look good.

There might be score effects in here, but the story that is told over the last 3 years with Vegas is very simple -

Stephenson xG with Stone: 52%
Stephenson xG without Stone: 44%
xG for Stone without Stephenson: 59%

Stephenson was a decent player once upon a time, he is not now.

Twitter fingers all summer because we’ll never go all in for talent. You’re right.

 

[theoptimist]

That model is not predicting what Stephenson would potentially sign for, it’s predicting what he’ll be worth per year on 7 year deal before the 24-25 season started.

If you look at the chart, his 2.6m in 24-25 ended up being too generous:
View attachment 1039161View attachment 1039162



He signed for 7 years so it’s showing a prediction of his actual worth over that contract.

The model doesn’t “want” anything.

Make believe contract based on a real contract. I’m exhausted. Good morning.

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

Make believe contract based on a real contract. I’m exhausted. Good morning.

Forget about his contract. He sucks as a player. The contract just makes it 10x worse.

 

[NJDevils17]

Palat cannot be in the top six next year. He drags every line down.

 

[MasterofGrond]

i am unironically happy to have a guy who isn't very good but that can successfully get carried to reasonable results

for 1.5M, not more than 6 lmao

 

[thebeernerd]

Palat cannot be in the top six next year. He drags every line down.

He was very visible in the playoffs but we all know he's different when it turns to that part of the year. He needs to be a third, possibly fourth liner next year. If he isn't, we've failed to make necessary additions.

I was watching THG's Devils rundown since he's at the part of his video series where he's going over teams eliminated in the first round. $12 million in space, plus a Luke Hughes contract, plus reloading the bottom six, means Fitz is going to need to make moves. It makes me more confident in thinking a Dougie move might be necessary. Ideally, though, Palat gets booted along with Haula.